Can we do it ?

Can Sunderland pull off the greatest of their escapes?

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Sunderland have been involved in a relegation fight in every season since 2013
Sunderland have escaped relegation in each of the last four seasons, but David Moyes may face the club's most perilous position yet.

From Paolo Di Canio knee-sliding across the St James' Park pitch in 2013, to Sam Allardyce dancing in front of the Stadium of Light last year, Sunderland's relentless fights against relegation have illustrated just what survival does to people.

Avoiding the drop has become such a recurring theme for the club that Gus Poyet's declaration that the Black Cats' 2014 escape would be remembered "for years to come" looks rather shortsighted now.



Since Martin O'Neill secured a 13th-placed finish in 2012, Sunderland have been involved in a relegation battle in every season, and this campaign is no different. Incumbent manager Moyes leads the charge against the latest challenge heading into March, with the club having not been in a worse position after 26 matches than they are now.




Sunderland's plentiful history of miraculous recoveries does give the former Manchester United and Everton boss examples to follow though, and here we examine just how the North-East club have pulled off their escapes in recent years and whether Moyes can repeat the trick.

2013
Di Canio was appointed Sunderland manager on the final day of March after O'Neill was sacked having left his side just one point above the relegation zone. Following a narrow 2-1 defeat away at Chelsea, back-to-back wins over Newcastle and Everton gave the enigmatic Di Canio an immediate cushion over the trailing pack. The 3-1 victory at their local rivals prompting wild celebrations from the Italian.

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Paolo Di Canio led Sunderland as they avoided the drop in 2013
However, the touchline knee-slide proved a little premature as Sunderland limped over the line, failing to win any of their final four matches before sealing their status after a 1-0 defeat at Tottenham on the final day.

Having been 13th at this stage in the 2012-13 campaign, Di Canio's side finished 17th. After a poor start to the following season the former West Ham striker was dismissed after just 13 games in charge.

2014

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Fabio Borini's winner against Chelsea in 2014 sparked a late season revival
A nine-match winless run left Sunderland bottom of the table in April 2014, six points off safety with five games remaining. Fabio Borini's penalty earned a stunning victory at Chelsea, the catalyst for a four-game winning streak that included another sensational away win, a 1-0 triumph at Manchester United.

The Black Cats eventually finished at the dizzy heights of 14th under Poyet after collecting 13 points from a possible 18 in their final six games, proving to be the club's most remarkable end-of-season turnaround in the Premier League so far.

League position after 26 games
2013 13th
2014 18th
2015 16th
2016 19th
2017 20th
2015
Jermain Defoe arrived in January but it was Costel Pantilimon who proved the hero in the 2014-15 season. Dick Advocaat replaced Poyet with the club one point above the drop zone in March 2015.

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Jermain Defoe scored just four league goals in his first season at Sunderland
They slipped into the relegation places despite a hard-fought 1-1 draw at Stoke, only to then beat Southampton at home and Everton away before securing their survival at the Emirates with a goalless draw against Arsenal. Pantilimon made a string of impressive saves to keep the Black Cats from losing.

After winning four matches between August and March, they then won three games in five under Advocaat to secure their top-flight status.

2016

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Sam Allardyce could not help but dance after Sunderland's final win of the season in the 2015-16 campaign
Sunderland lost just once in their final 11 games last season as current Crystal Palace boss Allardyce guided them to survival. That defeat, a 2-0 loss to champions in waiting Leicester, left them four points adrift with six games to go.

They preceded to rattle off three wins from those remaining fixtures, beating Chelsea 3-2 at the Stadium of Light and holding Arsenal to a goalless draw.

Collecting a higher average points total over the last 12 matches of the season (1.33 per game) than each of the previous escapes since 2013, Sunderland finished 17th, with Allardyce departing to take the vacant England job in the summer.

Average points collected over final 12 PL fixtures
2013 0.83 points per game
2014 1.17 points per game
2015 1.03 points per game
2016 1.33 points per games
2017?
Since 2013 Premier League clubs have required an average of 35.25 points to finish 17th and avoid relegation, meaning Sunderland require 1.35 points per game to reach this total.

Moyes' side are currently acquiring points at a rate of just 0.73 per game which, as well as ranking significantly lower than the required points-rate, is also much lower than they have managed in the final 12 games of each of the last four seasons.

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Bottom of the table and three points off safety, the club take on Manchester City this weekend in the first of 12 games to save their top-flight status in what is their most perilous position yet. Just seven points separates the bottom seven teams in the Premier League though, and Moyes could yet make it five in a row and guide the club to safety once again.

Personally I think we are ****ed this season, too many injuries and just not enough decent players.
I'd stick with Moyes though if we do go down.

 

No.

 

Not enough passion this time, so it's a no from me.

 

Yes we can, as has been said above there are 7 clubs within 7 points so there is going to be a lot of dog eat dog matches to come.
We have to ensure we come out as top dogs.
We've been cut further adrift than this in the past and prevailed so keep positive as we will prevail once again, although supporting our lot should come with a health warning.

 

What this does highlight is that the points need to come from anywhere and everywhere, it doesn't matter who the opponents are and in the past few seasons you've turned over all the big teams near the end of the season to stay up. It does feel very reminiscent of Wigan though, and that's not a good thing.

 

History would suggest that we can. Every season I think this will be the one where our luck runs out and yet it isn't. To be honest though we deserve to go down, our players and management do I mean.

 

Seems silly to say with 11 games left afterwards but this weekend is huge.



Palace and Boro have tight games whilst one of Hull/Leicester and Swansea/Burnley are going to get points. If Leicester and Swansea (who must be favourites for their games) and either of Boro OR Palace get wins then that 3 point gap is suddenly 6 points to 17th and 7/8 points to 16th.

 

Still have hope
But it's quickly wayning

 

Its quite probable that one or two of those seven will pick up results and pull away from the drop.
However that then leaves five teams and yes we have to win some if not all of those games where we play those teams, but this weekends six pointers will either leave some teams with no points or a spread of one point apiece which dosent really help in putting distance between themselves and the bottom three.
Of course we have a hard game on Sunday but these games are a free go, everyone expects us to get beat so anything else is a bonus like against the bindippers recently.
Its too early to chuck the towel in, its still all to play for.

 

CAN WE - absolutely - WILL WE - probably not!!
I'm an eternal optimist so I wish I could argue with you on this but I simply can't!

The numbers in the OP state league position after 26 games - but the league position isn't the important thing IMO - it's the number of points we are from safety - we are far closer this season (and I honestly think it may be a record low for staying up - although I still don't think we'll get it!!)

What's even more stupid is that I can see the team turning up and playing well against Man City - might not win but much like Spurs, then kicking us in the teeth against Burnley a fortnight later!! Or decent performance this week, win against Burnley then lie down and have belly tickled by whoever's next!!

 

Another great escape ? I don't think so this year.

Go on Moyes , prove me wrong.

 

See IMO it's not him that has to do the proving - it's the players! I have no problem with Moyes as a gaffer - he's dour as **** but I don't care about that - he's had a team perform very well against Palace and Spurs then equally turn around and **** on him in following game against Southampton. That, to me, is the players assuming "job done" after completing 2% of a task above standard!

 

I'd been a passionate Sunderland since early childhood. But for the last half dozen seasons or so my passion has waned to the point that I am actually not THAT bothered. Football is an interest to me now rather than a passion. I mean, if 10-15 years ago Sunderland won a game that kept us up and simultaneously sent Newcastle down I would have been bouncing off the walls for months. The thought would have had me losing the control of my bodily functions. Instead, last season, I just had a smile, a chuckle and then the novelty wore off after a week or so. I will merely be slightly disappointed if we go down.....not devastated.

To answer the question......wuh doooooomed!!!

 

Wish I could turn it off that easily! I'll be gutted!

 

Its not switchewd off, just severely dimmed. Its football in general. Nowadays its just total overkill. I've lost alot of respect for it for many reasons. Plus the fact that there are other things in my life that have become more of a priority. Up till 30 years of age i was single still living with my parents. Not a care in the world other than football which kept me awake at nights. 7 years later I have since getting married, had a child etc. Seems rather selfish of me to continue worrying about football to the extent that I used to when my main concern should be worrying about them. Basically the football that I once loved has been dragged away from me whilst my lifes circumstances have dragged me away from it. Just getting further and further apart. I'm pleased really cos the last few seasons would have played merry hell with my anxiety levels. I wouldn't have fancied starting my medication again.

 

No from me - i just feel that our goose was cooked the minute big vic got crocked and we had 10 days to sign a big forward who could hold the ball up but didn't do it. Hopefully I am wrong but I fear this is the year - draws are no good to us now and I don't think we have the firepower to score goals to win games. Come on SAFC stick two fingers up at me and prove me wrong

 

Exactly my view too. Losing him and not replacing him was pivotal for me this season.

 

Its as if we gain possession lump it up to JD and expect him to beat two 6 foot odd centre halves in the air. JD has done great but we cannot expect him to do that

 

Aye I know that feeling - Still keeps me awake sometimes - I'll sit with my eyes open worrying about Sunderland - I wonder how many of the players and highly paid staff do that? Very few I'd imagine in their ivory towers!!

 

I think you're taking it just a little too seriously in that case Marcus.

Either that or every other aspect of your life is stress-free, which I doubt!

If/when they go down you'll still be there the first Saturday of the season.