I've just stumbled upon this article on the Pink'un. In it, David Cuffley predicts we will need to win 12 of our last 16 games for automatic promotion, and win half of them for a playoff spot (Or at least get the equivalent number of points). Now I'll point you to our fixtures list and looking at it if we want auto promotion, we have 3 options; W12 D0 L4 W11 D3 L2 or W10 D6 L0. All of these seem like a very difficult ask, although if we can go on another 2 unbeaten runs of about 8 games each and be a bit more clinical it might be just about possible providing we have luck on our side, and no more major injuries. Looking at these 16 games my verdict as a nervous and realistic Norwich fan is; Reading (h) - hopefully a win or at least a draw. If we managed to get 3 - 3 at the Madejski (Think that's how it's spelt) even with a silly red card, we might just be able to get all 3. Much has been said of Reading's form lately, but they where very wasteful vs QPR. Leeds (a) - sadly I'd predict a loss here, but hopefully I'll be surprised. Somehow, however jammily Leeds always manage to pull it off when they're playing at home. Doncaster (h) - really a win for me here, I didn't think we deserved to lose at their place and they've not been up to much of late. Barnsley (a) - could be any of the 3. Barnsley are mid-table with decent home form. If we're serious about promotion it needs to be a win though. Preston (h) - easy win for me. Worst team in the league with a poor away record, even if we do seem to have a habit of gifting weak teams away wins. Leicester (a) - if Leicester are still going as strong as they are now, probably a loss. Hopefully they will implode spectacularly and Sven will bugger off to go manage Australia. Bristol City (h) - another weak team at home and realistically another 3 points for us, and for the superstitious ones of us, I'd point out we have a record of comfortably beating teams from Bristol lately. Hull City (a) - could be any of the three really. I felt aggrieved when Hull left Carrow Road with 3 points, if we play like we can it should be a win, but having lost to Hull once already, it could well happen again. Sc*nthorpe (h) - the third and final of the games I shall label as easy win at home, although we could lose all 3 of them for what I know. Swansea (a) - massive game here. Swansea where unlucky to lose at Carrow Road, Swansea have a much better team than us on paper but can't string together a few consistent performances to save their lives. Could go any of the three ways, although with a long trip to Wales all we can pray for is a win. Watford (a) - impossible to call. Sometimes Watford are unbeatable, sometimes they're very beatable. They've managed to beat most of the top teams and some other unlikely wins, yet are only around the play-off zone. Nottingham Forest (h) - if they're still going then like they are now, it's a definite loss for us. The team who we were unlucky to come away from with a point near the start of the season seems to be a completely new one that sits in second now with games in hand and must have QPR fans soiling themselves. Right now, they are playing like Championship Champions. If they do a 'Leeds' though, we might just win. Ipswich (a) - I'm gonna say it. I can't see us doing anything other than winning here. Sure they have a new manager are now playing well unlike the team we schooled at Carrow Road. But every time we have a big crunch game that really matters to the fans (Colchester last season, anyone?) Lambert has produced a magical performance that has been better than we could of possibly dreamed of. But it is Ipswich, so you never now. Derby (h) - slumped in form, and we beat them at Pride Park when they where in form. Now they've lost their best goal scorer to Celtic. A win or at worst a draw for me. Portsmouth (a) - after their smash 'n' grab at Carrow Road, I really want revenge on this team. Very winnable but equally very losable! Pompey are a hot 'n' cold team. Coventry (h) Coventry and their hoofball with their convicted strikers get on my nerves if I'm honest. Should really be a win, but as a realist I'll just say winnable. The colours are really to save you reading it all if you don't want to. Green = realistic easy 3 points, Yellow = quite winnable but maybe a draw or a loss, Orange = a team I feel will beat us or we might just escape with a draw and Red = a game I expect to lose. Now firstly, all these are based on form right now. All this could change very quickly. But from what I've written I deduce the 36 points we need may be a little too far out of reach unless we are very lucky and play extremely well. But getting 24 points here is doable. This is exactly half of the points we have left up for grabs, so we can lose a few and still hopefully grab a play-off place. If we win all of the 'green' and 'yellow' fixtures we can get automatic promotion. But I'm sure you'll agree winning all of these is near impossible, but hopefully we can take something from the orange and red fixtures. Essay over, it's going to be a close one. ILWT!
Blimey DM, you've put a lot of effort into that so I thought I'd better reply! A further 36 points, I feel, is maybe beyond us. In my opinion, we've had a great season, way past my expectations. This has gleaned us 51 points. Even to continue at the same impressive rate, our tally would be 76 (not enough in the previous four seasons for autos). I'd say then, that a play-off place is certainly achievable. It's obviously impossible to predict what the others will do, but last season Blackpool scraped into sixth with 70 points (and got promoted!) Whatever happens hereon in, it's been a great season. It's hard to imagine where we are considering the dire product from a short time ago. I still can't believe we're even considering promotion so soon. With the team we have in place (both playing and management) if not this season, then next!
Head says no way for auto, but heart says, sod it, let's just go for it and see what happens. If we're trying for auto's we should at least achieve play-off spot ILWT OTBC
