My idea of the true odds on some of todays races. 2.40 7/2 Silver Linnet 9/2 Good Timin 8/1 Canadian Danehill 9/1 Mosa Mine 10/1 Cri Na Mara 14/1 Divertimenti 14/1 Hambleton 16/1 Sallys Swansong 25/1 Replicator 33/1 Green Warrior 50/1 Love Club 66/1 Lois Lane 3.10 2/1 Hinton Admiral 5/2 Master Of Disguise 4/1 Tombi 13/2 Imprimus Tagula 20/1 Mother Jones 4.10 7/4 Enery 3/1 Availed Speaker 9/2 Roedean 7/1 Island Melody 12/1 Anginola 5.40 4/1 Gala Spirit 9/2 Cyflymder 7/1 Crocodile Bay 7/1 Chester Deelyte 9/1 Piccolo Express 12/1 Efistorm 14/1 Sienna Blue 16/1 Look For Love 25/1 Sopran Nad 50/1 Bint Elnadim
2.40 = an underrounded book, I would love you to be my bookmaker - back them all and guarentee a very small profit. 5.40 = Overround which is an improvement for you as a bookmaker. However, how on earth would you balance that book? One bet over your expected level would make it majorly unbalanced and without a buffer to stablise the book (IE big overround). Not viable as books I am afraid, even Timeform (and betfair) expect overrounds of 103% or bigger on all their racing "books"
Thats why its called true odds Nass Im am not offering bets to people, I have shown what I believe to be the true odds, as close as I could get to 100%
Its not true odds then, its your opinion of the prices you would like, far from being true odds. True odds will be the prices they go off at on Betfair, whereby they are formed by what people are willing to offer and to take. Is that not true?
Obviously no bookmaker is going to bet to anywhere near 100%, but when trying to work out the true chance, you can only have 100%. Thanks for thinking im a complete idiot nonetheless If bookies or casino are giving you even money, you can guarantee you have less than a 50% chance
It depends on what you suggest the truth is!! If you think in a racing sense, the truth is the opinion of the masses who stake, or the truth is something that is more difficult to state (as in has many 'hidden' factors). Its an interesting idea The Trainer has put forward, and its a principle I agree with, in that you are looking for something that not only is your idea of a winner but also at the price you think it should be (or bigger). I would try to price the races up, but I haven't formed any opinions of the races.
No one is thinking that you are a complete idiot, I was trying to engage debate on the issue that hardly anyone talks about (as you seem to be doing with the thread). What do you see as a reasonable overround in terms of bookmakers? and exchanges?
I think the exchanges are fair enough but its harder for the bookmakers obviously as they are not getting action on every horse and even if their overround was 150% they are not guaranteed a profit. I think 120+ is too much, I would say around 110% would be reasonable but rarely see it anywhere near that low especially with the big boys. I think the exchanges have probably helped those who bet with bookmakers to get fairer value SPs but I think bookmakers take very few chances and would like to see them stand by their own opinions more rather than basically just reflecting Betfair. Its hard because obviously they need an overround but what the perfect balance is I dont know. What do you think yourself?
It is a tough one, I personally do not think that we have the worst overrounds at the moment, however it is noticeable that when bookmakers price races up without the strong Betfair market (ie early prices) they are often more generous with their odds. We often have to expect 120% overrounds in the big races, which I think is too large, however I think we have to accept that bookmakers aren't getting even books and they need to price horses accordingly (ie shortening horse more than lengthening others). I tend not to look at the overround, as I am normally only interested in one horse in the race, and I price that one up to the chances I think it has. The other big issue at the moment is Starting Prices, which I think are becoming rapidly outdated.
The overround will depend on how many runners,I work for a racecourse bookie and we normally bet about 1.5% per runner at an average meeting,at some tracks we will have an agreement at 2% a runner.
Value will disappear from the ring though Nass - bookmakers increased costs will lead to 115-120% books on course for most races, it's the only way they can recover the additional costs courses are squeezing from them. It'll take a few years I think but the current system is likely to implode - more and more business is going from the ring to the exchanges so less and less bookies are attending meetings, may take 10+ years but I think there'll be drastic changes in the industry. You'd be surprised at how many on course bookies are in the game just as a hobby knowing they can't make a living from it, and that's before the courses end the five-times rule and double/treble costs to bookies....
That sounds like the story being told by everyone who works at the lower grade meetings, its really sad but quite a few are professional exchange users and part time bookmakers. Times are changing and those who fail to keep up will be left behind, and thats sad.
Well thats it innit, if you fancy one and your getting what you think is a fair price then your not interested in the overround. Because the majority of the money Bookmakers will take in any race is on the first 3 or 4 in the betting, they will always be priced up shorter than they should be, I suppose its all about finding their mistakes before they do! Ladbrokes rarely make mistakes, in my opinion, Bet365 and Paddy Power tend to make the most in the night before markets. What do you mean by SPs becoming outdated?
I'm a bit of an old git but walking the ring at coruses is all part of the experience/day out for me, if all I wanted was to place an unemotional bet then I'd sit at home with a BOT. I agree that times change and people need to change with them but the bookmakers are disappearing in their droves because the business isn't there, what does the industry do if only two bookies turn up at Wolvo today ? It is sad and it needs some serious discussion before this element disappears from the game, I know no-one who wants to go to an all tote system but we're almost pushing ourselves that way (for on course betting) which in turn will reduce the income courses can realise even though their driver is to increase income. It's a debate for another day maybe....
It is actually amazing the contrast in bookmaking now compared to when i first started punting in the late eighties. Back then for any chance of winning you really needed to bet on course as you had a 10% tax to pay on your stake to the govt in shops, also Bookies would only price up early odds for about two races a day. Now it is quite the opposite and to bet on course is the last thing you would do as many bookies offer best odds guaranteed and price up every race early morning. This means that the punter who studies the evening before as most do will bet first thing guaranteed to get the better odds should it drift or simply place on Betfair which the on course punter cannot. This means that the on course punter gets a board priced up 20 minutes before a race when all the trading has already happened and just has to take what is given, obviously there are late plunges that actually start on course that the off course punter could not predict but from a punting point of view it must be through the computer now to show a profit. I think what the trainer was doing was what some punters do which is price a race up according to their opinion which then gives you an idea of what is value when the actual book opens. If you have priced one up at 8's but the bookie opens at 14's then you have a value bet. Whilst even if you think the favourite should win at 6-4 if the available odds are 4-5 then you leave it anyhow as it's not value according to your opinion.
I always bet on course when i go racing, but i do get the impression that a lot of layers are just arbing on betfair. Might be wrong though.
