I really cant see Hurricane Fly being beaten in the Champion Hurdle but the only nagging doubt is Zarkandar. HF comfortably has the measure of every other horse in the race but this one is still a bit unknown. I was impressed by his attitude yesterday and he was never going to win the race with his head in his chest, it was a very competitive handicap. However I cant possibly take 6-1 about him. I had a smallish bet at 16-1 on him winning yesterday and the CH, I did the same on Grumeti for the Triumph a few weeks back, but I am still not convinced either can win. I am convinced though that he will beat the rest and get fairly close to HF. Accordingly surely 3-1 without the favourite is well worth a few quid. All opinions welcome; 3-1 ZARKANDAR without Hurricane Fly
Sorry mate, but I wasn't all that impressed by the win. Don't get me wrong he showed lots of heart yesterday, but he didn't seem to possess too much zip.
Not much depth to the race and if you take out everything HF has beaten already that pretty much leaves Zarkandar and Grandouet as the only possible "unknowns" in the race. I wasn't impressed at all by Zarkandar yesterday and I don't think he's even run to his "thrown in" mark of 151 - the proximity of Get Me Out Of Here with the lad on board would seem to confirm that. The improving lightweights have finished close-up behind and I would also say the most likely winner 2 out was the novice Darlan before his horrible fall. I'm sure, as Nicholls says, he will come on for that, but I have never been wholly convinced by him. I actually wonder if he was an "early peaker" in the Triumph and was simply the most forward 4YO in the race that day? His Aintree run was not good form and the handicapper was entitled to drop him 3 pounds after that, to 151. I would say he's run to somewhere in the mid-low 140s yesterday and but for the fall of Darlan would most likely have been beaten. At the moment I like Grandouet the better but it's clearly a concern that he misses the Kingwell with a slight knock.
I think for Zarkander to have been seriously considered as a CH horse he needed to win yesterday comfortably with plenty in hand - he's certainly a battler but we probably knew that anyway and it would be reasonable to expect some improvement on that performance, but it didn't look a classy effort to me, against the best I think he could struggle. Two I fancy in this market, Rock on Ruby at 8s and Celestial Halo 20s, both each way. If it becomes a war of attrition then Ruby has the stamina to stay through beaten horses, and if allowed to dictate up front Halo could have a few off the bridle early enough and have slipped them and finish in the front 4.
Zarkandar is never going to win sweeping past horses he isn't that type of horse. He will always come off the bridle early no matter what he races against but he finds and he stays well which is essential for the CH. I can't see him troubling Hurricane Fly but I doubt he will be out of the first 3
Unbelievable, Zarkandar been off ages, had a mishap then goes and wins one of the toughest handicaps of the year showing guts and determination! Add to that the fact he has won this awesome historical race without a prep run and that shows class!! He will obviously come on tonnes for the run and if I hadnt had a large bet EW ante post I too would be gobbling up the 3s without HF. Shakesheadindisbelief
I agree Gary. Makes his seasonal debut, possibly not fully primed, in a really competitive and valuable handicap hurdle. Just because he was ridden to win doesnt mean its not very good form off that weight. Wonder what the handicapper has made of it!
Zarkander a chance, Grandouet another chance, Binocular, Oscars Wells and Rock On Ruby must have a chance between them, the rest of the field an other chance or two. 3-1 looks pretty skinny odds to me.
Cyc: I am guessing those comments were tongue in cheek!! ROR and Binocular have no chance, Grandouet and Oscars Well have extremely little chance
Why did he? When Binocular won his Champion Hurdle in 2010 he started off in the Fighting Fifth finishing 5th, He then came 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle and then beat a 137 rated horse by a length at Sandown before going on to take the holy grail of hurdling. His form beforehand was hardly mindblowing... Paul Nicholls never hid the fact that He was half baked for this race, Thrown in at the deepend in a competetive hurdle and just like the Triumph he was outpaced early on, Came off the bridle but when he hit top gear he put the race to bed. What was impressive is he found the gap when he needed it and powered through I think for his first race this season it was a very good performance, And Im sure he'll come on a ton for the run. Weather he's good enough to beat Hurricane Fly is a different matter but he certainly deserves to take his chance in the Champion Hurdle He stays and has a turn of foot at the business end of a race, I am sure he will put in a good performance at Cheltenham if PN can get him there in good nick!
I thought Zarkandar put himself right into the CH picture yesterday. That race always takes some winning and it was his first race after a long break. Of course PN would have got him as fit as possible (don't believe the 'half-baked' nonsense) but he is still likely to improve for the run. Having said that I backed HF in last year's race and he will take a lot of beating. But he is not unbeatable and will have to be at his best to win.
Thing with Zarkandar though that stands out to me like a sore thumb was that despite having an awful lot go against him in the race- no pace, traffic problems-he still found something despite needing the run and was galloping away from them at the line. Ruby Walsh is ADAMANT that a Champion Hurdler has to stay strongly, preferably 2 and a half miles, and Zarkandar always finds late on. He'll never win on the bridle, he is a horse that takes some coaxing but when he clicks into gear, he does put races to bed. A strong pace in the Champion will really help him. Reminds me a lot of Peddlers Cross last year, who never impressed me at all visually, and then ran the Fly to within a lenth and a quarter at Cheltenham, a mile clear of the rest, and crucially he stayed very strongly at 2m too. Hurricane Fly is a proper champion in my eyes but I do think Zarkandar will be the one to follow him home, hopefully in a good battle!
Zarkandar won off 151 and needs to improve 23 poundds in a month to beat HF if one takes a pedantic view of the OR's. Can he do that?...who knows and will HF run to his level? It's fair to say Zarkandar needs a true run race and i'm not totally convinced where the pace in the CH will come from.I can see the race cutting up into a small runner event. He certainly looks the most potent challenger and whilst stamina is often seen as a prerequisite at Cheltenham,it is worth remembering that the course is only 1.5 m round and before they hit the hill they race downhill for a large distance and horses can get outpaced in that section of the course..might Zarkandar get too far out of his ground? I haven't the answer to any of those questions and won't be playing in the race,but will be on the edge of my seat watching.
As an aside,am I'm right in saying the CH course is 200 yards shorter than it used to be since 1979? I can remember (just about,was only 10 at the time) connections of Monksfield citing that as a factor,in 1980,that scupppered his treble bid and gave Sea Pigeon more time to pounce and less to engage in a protracted battle with the then champ.
I respect your selections stick, but I can't agree with you on this one. Zarkandar is a good horse, but as far as I'm concerned he's not going to have the pace in the Champion Hurdle. If he's getting outpaced, by a bunch of handicappers, then he's got no chance against the top hurdlers. My thoughts on last seasons Triumph were that he won the race, like a stayer, he even looked outpaced in that race. Horses that can win the Triumph hurdle, at 4 generally need further once there 5 and 6, history has proved this, and Zarkandar has won his races like a stayer, I just can't be having him even without Hurricane Fly. If I'm honest, the horse I fancy now is Binocular, I'm not saying he's better than Hurricane Fly, but at 9/1 he looks a massive price, as he looked as good as ever yesterday
Is that the same PN that is £495k clear at the top of the trainers championships, with nearly one in four runners winning?...
When Zarkandar picks back up on the bridle he really does find an extra gear, The way he won at Kempton and at Cheltenham and Aintree shows you he as the guts when it comes to a battle, Hurricane Fly doesn't need to do alot to win I dont think but if he as an off day or doesn't run to form then Zarkandar will be there to pick up the pieces I reckon...
Hard not to be impressed by Binocular yesterday. I've been one of his biggest critics over the years and still think he won a weak champion hurdle BUT he beat a 161 rated horse hard on the steel by 6 lengths yesterday and, even if Celestial Halo hasn't quite run to his mark it was still seriously impressive. The market without the fly suddenly doesn't look quite so cut and dry.
