As it stands the top 3 have edged the smallest of leads in the championship: HTML: 1 Lewis Hamilton 88 2 Fernando Alonso 86 -2 3 Sebastian Vettel 85 -3 4 Mark Webber 79 -9 5 Nico Rosberg 67 -21 6 Kimi Räikkönen 55 -33 7 Romain Grosjean 53 -35 8 Jenson Button 45 -43 Webber is just holding on but from Rosberg onwards they are approaching (or beyond) 1+ win away from Hamilton. Before Canada Hamilton was 13 points behind the leader in 4th so the gap between the top 4 has shrunk but now that the top 3 are the classic Hamilton, Alonso and Vettel trio are things going to change? Lotus or Schumacher could be our 8th victor in 8 races and throw the championship into a different general order again after Valencia but with predictions for the next race generally pointing at our top three they could well pull even further ahead. 7 races mean we have now passed the one third point of the season, a time when we can usually work out where the championship is going (down to a couple of drivers), but this year with so many WDC's all in competitive machinery there's every chance the title could be more open than 2010's once we reach Brazil! We are used to talking about team mates taking points away from rivals as well as their team mate but this season has so far shown that several teams can "get in the way" of rivals. Just look at Canada, Hamilton's lead in the championship being due to the Sauber and Lotus being able to lock of the podium for him, 2 drivers who still look a bit off being genuine rivals. So, do you think the title race is already a 3 way? Soon to become a 3 way? Maybe become a 2 way race? Or are you hoping or believing it will stay very open till the end? Some interesting facts:
I think over the next 5 races the top 3 will pull away from the others and have a battle amongst themselves. They have been consistently quicker than their teammates and show a better understanding of how to use the tyres well. It's that factor that will give them the edge over the season.
Soon it will become a three way fight, but not yet. In the right conditions, I think Sauber, Lotus, Mercedes and Williams all have the potential to win races and make things difficult for the top 3. Sauber, Williams and Lotus don't have the budget to keep up in development, so after a while they will be dropped by the top four. Mercedes can stay in there but I don't think their drivers are strong enough to keep up with the top three. I have doubts about whether it will stay a three way fight to the end, because the way Ferrari are developing they'll probably be quickest overall in the last third of the season.
I think Webber will stay in touch for most of the season, I think Button and Massa are too far back, but Webber can, on his day, match and beat Vettel, otherwise Hamilton and Alonso should have the support of their teams
I think it's evident the car is getting closer to Seb's liking and he has more to give for this WDC, RBR just need to strike a balance between qualifying and race pace, then the fight really begins. I would say a top 3 forming, *no order* (Seb, Lewis, Alonso) with Webber fighting it out with Rosberg behind. The cars are always being improved so it's only a matter of time until the real numbers 1's start to pull away from the rest.
Discounting Sauber is a mistake, they are as capable of winning a race as Lotus, in fact of the 2 teams you could argue that they already should have won, in Malaysia, if they could get their qualifying pace up with their race pace, well, who knows.
I think the WDC will take a few different turns and their is always a shock run of form from somebody, I dont think you can totally write of Button - YET? I dont wish DNF's on anybody, but no driver has had any bad luck yet, and there has been no contact between leading drivers, something that is inevitable over the coming races. This could have a drastic affect on how the WDC is shaped.
Webber and Rosberg can still come into it but lack of funds will hamper anyone else. I don't know yet if it'll be a three-way or a five-way but we'll know soon, I think.
I like Button but I can't see where his next win is coming from. He is struggling in qualifying and is even worse in the race. I hope he does find form again but time is starting to run out for him already in terms of competing for the championship.
No driver has had any bad luck? Hamilton should have at least one more win and a lot more points if he team hadn't screwed him over!
And Seb should have 2 more 3rd places, Malaysia and Canada. 30 points wasted on outside influences that weren't his fault.
Canada was poor strategy not bad luck. He could easily have told his team after Hamilton pitted to bring him in.
I'm always looking at all 3 performances of Seb, Alonso and Lewis with comparison to 2010, since that was the last time they were all this close. It has given some interesting results if you look at it. 2010: After 7 races... Lewis 3rd.. 84 points, Alonso 4th.. 79 points, Vettel 5th.. 78 points. 2012: After 7 races... Lewis 1st.. 88 points, Alonso 2nd..86 points, Vettel 3rd.. 85 points. Only Webber and Jenson have got worse out of the 2012 fight with them both leading 1st-2nd back then. So all 3 (Lewis, Alonso, Vettel) are driving better than they did in 2010 with tougher competition than 2010 dished out: Mercedes (3rd year in F1), Sauber (Best car to date), Lotus (Just as strong in 2010) and Williams (Back to winning ways). And that 2 of them (Alonso and Vettel) had easily better cars in 2010 at the start compared with this season. Lewis has also put in a new approach to this year and it's working very well. Lewis will need to win Valencia to stay ahead of himself in 2010 by 4 points (113), Alonso and Seb would only need to be over 5 points each to stay ahead of themselves in 2010. This was the table for these 3 after the 10th race (Silverstone): Lewis 145pts, Vettel 121pts, Alonso 98pts... Down to the wire???
^^ yeah silver, but the RBR was the fastest car by a mile, the table of 2010 is skewed by Sebs appalling mechanical luck and mini mental collapse.
True reliability was appalling, but at that time people and the media were calling him a car breaker and that he should be a tad lighter with the car like Webber. And yes mental collapse was part of it as he was new to this kind of pressure, but looking at the table it looks like he isn't phased by Webber anymore and is just getting on with his own performances.
Kind of related to the thread but in a distant way Why does Villeneuve think the 2012 Lotus is dominant? I agree its been good but not dominant He reckons Hamilton, Alonso or Vettel would have won every race in it. http://www.yallaf1.com/2012/06/10/v...-vettel-in-a-lotus-might-have-won-every-race/ sour grapes about something perhaps?
