I noticed whilst on holiday in the not so sunny south Wales (code for pissing it down whilst glorious weather elsewhere in the UK) that Rainer mentioned about when to bet. Picking a winner is nice, but getting the best price and best returns is even better. As I have got a database available, I thought I would run a little test. So from 1st of January 2021 we have the following for all flat and all weather races in the UK. Betfair SP - Starting Price on Betfair Exchange SP Odds - Starting Price returned (bookmakers) Evening Price - Price available to back the horse on Bet 365 website at 8.30pm the evening before the race Breakfast Price - Price available to back the horse on Bet 365 website at 7.30am on the day of the race Morning Price - Price available to back the horse on Bet 365 website at 10.30am on the day of the race So a simple average of winning prices in each of these is Betfair SP - 8.38 SP - 6.73 Evening - 6.812 Breakfast - 6.89 Morning - 7.03 So firstly, Betfair SP is nicely above the SP, which doesn't surprise given the average industry overround for the period was 114%. Betfair SP is also above the Evening, Breakfast and Morning Prices, which for me is interesting and gives worth to the way I am backing my selections (BSP for system bets). Now what is interesting in the Evening, Breakfast and Morning Prices is the non runners aspect. All three are above SP but these values don't include R4 reductions in bets, and if you factor that in I would expect SP to be very similar if not better than Evening and Breakfast values. The most interesting part of this "raw" analysis is the differences in prices between Evening, Breakfast and Morning prices. Bet365 is one of very few who offer BOG on overnight prices (I think they still do) but it is unsurprising to me that the books have removed BOG for early priced up markets. The Breakfast market seems to still being formed and waiting for the later prices seems ideal. This is especially interesting when you think how many non runners are called within the period 7:30 to 10:30, which would again shorten the actual returns of the Evening and Breakfast prices. So then the question is when to back between the Morning and SP, and that for me is a really interesting question which the database can't answer. The data suggests that the markets are fully formed by 10:30 and that is the best time to be backing of the three early prices, but taking into account non runners it could be suggested that you are as well waiting for SP as going in at 10:30 prices. Now, with most bookmakers paying BOG after 10:00, this adds weight to the argument that you should take a price at BOG in the morning window with the expectation of getting paid out at BOG if it drifts before the off. If it shortens then you've locked in the value. Personally though, I like the look of the top number and with my way of betting I am happy to take big prices on angles at BSP. That number is exagerated by long priced winners, but if you can get just over 7/1 on average for every winner in the UK since January 1st, I would rather take that than the under 6/1 with industry SP! I have some other research to look at, I want to compare this with the jumps and also year on year. Views? Questions? Mocking? Fire Away!!!
I do not watch nearly as much racing as I used to Nass (and have only bet at the Cheltenham Festival for the last 4 years) but I seem to remember quite regular "late plunges" on the all-weather tracks which were more often than not right on the money. For me it would depend on the type of race and whether or not I were at the track. For the big Cheltenham festival races I've usually formed my view well in advance but on the odd occasions I do go to the track (went to a Doncaster flat meeting a couple of years ago) I like to look at the horses in the parade ring, and then place my bet as they are going down to post. In the "at the track" scenario I am usually there to enjoy the day, rather than get the best price though. For me a winner is a winner. If I back a winner at SP of 4/1 and it was 6/1 in the morning I can happily live with having missed the extra couple of points. As I said though, I rarely bet these days so probably not the best person to comment.
It's a double edged sword, for me. It's a nice feeling when you can pick a horse the day before or early morning at a good price and then watch it win at a considerably shorter SP. The flip side is the R4, it can really put a dampener on your bet/race when you know if it comes in you will have, say, 20% wiped off the top. It can also ruin multiple bets if you have one or two non-runners, or R4's. I generally tend to select my horses on the evening before the races and then wait until about an hour before the racing starts to get as many non-runners out the way as possible before I put my bet on and I accept the price for what it is at that time.
