Looking at this Derby turnout, what on earth does this tell us about our 3yos? Not one horse in the Derby field looks capable of winning a truly run 12f race at Epsom. Only one horse in the field has been placed over 12f on turf and that one is 33/1. Not a single entry from Stout, Cecil, Godolphin, Bolger. Does AOB really have all the best 3yos? The odds on fav has not run beyond 8f. Not one horse in the field has clocked a time even close to average on turf. This looks like a very poor year for 3yos. We can only hope that Camelot is so superior that he provides us with some hope in the arc. Assuming Camelot wins the Derby, two races I look forward to that will give us a much better idea of Camelot are: Camelot v Frankel over 10f Camelot in the KG. If he gets anywhere near Frankel over 10f (or beats him) and wins the KG then I will believe we have a super star who could win us the Arc. Until then he has a lot to prove and I have my reservations.
Ron I must say for years now I've found the classics to be wholly unsatisfactory both in terms of a betting proposition and also the quality of field they generate. For me they are way too early in the season and far from being the cream of the crop (which I think the classics should be) they are usually races where the protagonists are strung out like washing at the finish (even when there isn't a Frankel in the field). I'd like to see the Guineas run early July and the Derby / Oaks early August and the St Leger late August. I would then gear up to the all-age championship 3rd week in September with a card for the fillies on Saturday and the colts on Sunday. Each day would feature champion races at 6F, 7F, 8F, 10F and 12F with some juicy handicaps thrown in. The second day would also feature the stayers championship which I would open to both sexes.
OddDog, are you Richard Hughes twin? In today’s Racing Post, he advocates moving the first four Classics back a few weeks because they are too early in the season. I do not think that the races should move. It is just that training practises have changed in recent years and the type of horse that turns out to be a good three-year-old now seems to be a late developer. We may not have seen this year’s best three-year-old in anything other than a maiden race so far. When the Derby was run last year, King George winner Nathaniel was a no-name. If Camelot does not win by a street, I expect connections may keep him to his own generation (Irish Derby etc) rather than take on his elders until the end of the season.
Hopefully Camelot won't face Frankel over 10f but will go for the St Leger and then go to the Breeders Cup Classic for the 'Race of the Millennium' against fellow Triple Crown winner I'll Have Another. I am also hoping that the BHA and RFC will get off their bottoms and put together a huge pot 7f match race for Frankel and Black Caviar in July (I wonder how much Rod Street gets for coming up with a 'fingers crossed they meet...' idea?). Match races used to happen such as The Flying Dutchman vs Voltigeur and Seabiscuit vs War Admiral. Now they were real Racing For Change.
I like the idea of a race against I'll Have Another but why run it over that horrible sloppy dirt. That's not in Camelot's best interest and although he's better than the Yankee horse that horrible surface will shift it in IHA favour.
we now have 3 superstars in flat racing - FRANKEL, CAMELOT AND BLACK CAVIAR this is a golden opportunity for flat racing but not if they continue to ignore racing against each other The Eclipse - should be Camelot v Frankel but wont Sussex Stakes - should be Black Caviar v Frankel but wont BUT I can't wait for the St Leger. To see Camelot win the Triple Crown would be very special. Never been racing up north but I would make the journey to Doncaster for that. Out of interest how many people can Doncaster accommodate?
I still think Camelot has to prove himself against the older horses before we start saying he's a superstar. When you think of how many G1 winners the likes of Frankel and Black Caviar have beat, then I think it's abit of an insult to them to put Camelot up there with them. I'm not saying Camelot isn't the real deal, I just think he has to prove it in all aged G1s. He won the smallest Derby in years today, and the 2nds just proggressed up through handicaps, so im still being a little cautious with my rating of Camelot until I see him agianst the older horses. At the moment I'd personally give him a rating of 128+
As for the St Leger, don't be fooled into thinking it's some sort of penalty kick for Camelot as it isn't, it could even be his toughest task yet. I remember the great Shergar, the best 10-12f horse ive ever seen, he destroyed his derby rivals by 10 lengths eased down, and he could only manage 4th in the Leger, against the same horses.* The Leger is not usually a race won by a great turn of foot, it's usually won by a very strong stayer, and that's why the triple crown is so difficult to win. Good luck to Camelot, it will be great for racing if he can do it, but I dont think the triple crown is as certain as the bookies make it *
I have to agree Shergar, there is not one thing that Camalot has done yet to suggest a high rating let alone the superstar tag. He has won in good style today but i doubt any of thise behind will win a group 1 race all year. I suspect we have a poor crop of 3 year olds, this is not camalots fault but does sadly mean with the way ratings are compiled he will need take on he's older generation to really allow us to place him in perspective. I think being seen to beat Main sequance 5 lengths will not be viewed as reason to get excited about a horse. He is potentially a great horse but no more at present. I wonder how he would get on against something like Excelebration over a mile or St Nicholas Abbey over a mile and half. These are good bench marks of very good horses, not great but very good. I actually think i would back the two older horses in both those races from what i have seen so far. I know the equations with SNA can be done today but they were two different races and SNA was by no means asked let alone extended, very impressive. An interesting thing will be that if they really rate Camalot later in the season will they allow him to take on Frankel in the Champion stakes? this is possible as they will know that if he has an unbeaten record at that stage to win an ordinairy Arc will not gain as much as being the horse that finally beat Frankel. I don't think it will happen unless Frankel shows some flaws during the season but it may tempt them if they really believe in Camalot.
This years derby was very similar to the one workforce won a couple of years back, front runner sets a strong pace, something comes from near the back to win when the pacemaker tires slightly and nothing else really gets into it. Im not trying to discredit camelot here as he did win it impressively and obviously workforce didnt turn out too badly winning an arc but i just cant be too confident about the form of this race. As someone put earlier, the horse that came second has just progressed through handicaps. I couldnt be having camelot against the older horses on the back of that race. As for the leger i think it will be very tough for camelot to win. There still has to be doubts over camelot getting the trip and there are plenty of unexposed three year olds that could be primed for the leger. A horse like michelangelo for john gosden springs to mind.
Interesting points guys. Timeform have attributed him a rating of 130p which indicates an above average G1 winner with more to come.I think thats fair. Not sure why Frankel,who hadn't the credentials to run in a Derby let alone compete in one,is cited as Camelots D-Day in the Champion Stakes,even if F even stays 10f. Frankel is a top miler and Camelot has already bested him in terms of versatility,like STS. Camelot will run in the Irish Champion Stakes if he does face 10f in the Autumn,a race Frankel strangely hasn't been entered in. I do chuckle at the fact that a talented colt won the Derby today impressively and some want to extrapolate the debate to revolve around last years 2000 guineas winner who will attempt to beat the same horse for the 5th time in 12 months over a mile at RA.. Also disappointing to hear the Arc reduced to "ordinary" and we're only 3 days into June! This has a lot more to do with with where Camelot comes from than his ability. Quite sad but objectivity is a rare quality. .
Nijinsky won the TC...Oh So Sharp won the fillies version. Shergar beat trees in the Derby and was hopelessly exposed in a poor Leger...enjoyed that race since I saw through the hype and backed the winner as a boy. He had it all to prove,just like Camelot has,but couldn't cut the mustard...might be different this time round...
It was a wonderful win, but I don't think I'd be backing Camelot against top flight, open class, G1 horses over 10f.
He's won a maiden and then stepped up to win 3 group 1s ! Yesterday looked like a easy win and a great staying performance should get the other 2f at least he will go for it rather than the others that avoided it ! Sts and nashwan ! If he wins it it will still be can he beat frankel over 1m2f !
Yeah, I suppose it'a all a bit unfair Mick. The horse has just done the big double in nice style and yet, we still look for something with which to beat him around the head.
