2.05 Navan Jedward 5/1 I like the look of Charles OâBrienâs unexposed 3 YO a lot tomorrow. The awfully named Jedward made his debut in September last year and came on from that effort when landing a maiden over 5f on Yielding ground last October by 2.5L to Nidian over tomorrows course and distance. Nidian has subsequently won off a mark of 71 subsequently and although this is the only sort of decent form to note from in behind it was still a decent performance from Jedward. On his handicap debut after a 6 month break Jedward disappointed off a mark of 73 on Heavy ground but I am willing to forgive this run as he probably needed that reappearance run and he did indeed improve on that on his next start. Jedwardâs 2nd effort in a handicap is a very strong piece of form as he put in an impressive 0.19L behind Roicead back in May over and only a head behind Murura, a horse who I really like who has come out and won again and placed 2nd in a Jedwards last race and is who is now rated 92. Jedward raced on the far side rail and may have been on the wrong side of the track. It was still a fantastic effort off a mark of 73 and the form of that race looks rock solid. Roicead is now a 108 rated animal and has placed in a Group 3 subsequently. The 4th Maarek came a decent 4th off a 12lb higher mark in the Ayr Silver Cup and won the race Jedward ran in LTO off a mark of 89 and is now rated 98 and is probably up to pattern company Although Jedward did disappoint on his 2nd last start over 5f at the Curragh in a race which Maarek won, the 9L defeat was not as bad as it appeared. After tacking over from a middle draw to bag the near side rail, Jedward raced at the front on his side but the pace seemed very fast and it set it up for a finisher like Maarek. Jedward held every chance until a furlong out but was eased when beaten. LTO Jedward was very well supported and in a 24 runner field he had taken about half the entire volume on Betfair. Racing from 3lb out of the handicap, Jedward put in a very good performance after a 3 month break to finish 5.75L behind Maarek again. It was a very good performance in a large field on Heavy ground and it is very evident to me that he finished behind 2 very progressive animals in the shape of Murura and Maarek who will surely go onto bigger and better things. The 3rd that day Eur Elusive, who finished 0.75L ahead of tomorrows selection from and also raced from 3lb out of the handicap, reopposes off the same mark tomorrow but I think Jedward will certainly come on from his what was his first run after a 3 month break. Tomorrow Jedward races from his correct handicap mark of 76, which is 3lb lower than his last effort. With jockey R Dawson taking off a further 4lb, he has a 4lb swing with Eur Elusive and with his latest effort sure to make him more race ready I think it will be enough to reverse the form with that rival. The vast support of Charles OâBrienâs charge LTO clearly demonstrates that Jedward is in top form and despite only finishing 4th, it was still an excellent effort behind 2 very progressive rivals. He is still very unexposed with only 6 starts to date and is dropped back to 5f tomorrow, where he has won over C+D. This coupled with the fact he is sure to be sharper after his last run are the primary reasons I think he will reverse the form Eur Elusive. His draw in stall 9 isnât too bad as he overcame a seemingly bad draw in stall 14 when winning over C+D. I think Jedward and Eur Elusive are both on great marks which they will win off in the near future so I will play a RFC as they could both easily be the first two home tomorrow, with hopefully the former being the victory 4.05 Navan Orafinitis 20/1 As many of you know Iâve been following Desmond McDonoghâs 3 year old since debut as well as many other horses from that race as it has proved to be very strong including Misty for Me, Katla and Why. After a lot of poor efforts after debut, Orafinitis showed the promise witnessed on debut as she won her first race after a 7 month absence by 1L off a mark of 56. She certainly won with a bit in hand after getting bumped leaving the stalls and coming very wide to win going away. The handicapper raised her 8lbs a result of that win and I certainly think she is capable of winning off a mark of this level. The form of her winning race hasnât worked out too badly at all. The 2nd El Toreros has put in a couple of decent efforts off 2lb and 3lb higher marks. Measured Approval the 5th that day has subsequently came out and won next time out by 1.75L and the 7th Golden Starlet went down by a short 2nd NTO. Further to this, Painted Fingers the 9th, who was 7.25L behind Orafinitis, has won off a mark 1lb lower mark since. This form demonstrates it wasnât a terrible maiden she won against fellow 3 year olds but she disappointed on her next start, and although I really should have known that with the trainers son Declan jumping off to ride what turned out to be the winner, I stuck to my guns and was disappointed. Orafinitis made her 2nd last start 1 month after her win back in June and I was disappointed. She had a good racing position throughout and would have had every opportunity if good enough but she didnât find much when asked for an effort and the jockey Sam James eased her right down about 1f out when it was clear she had no chance of making the frame. I would be lying if I said I wasnât quite disappointed and I donât really have any excuses. It appears that she ran into quite a few nice types that day such as Spin of A Coin and Ted Dolly who have being performing very well and are now 10lb and 15lb higher respectively. LTO Orafinitis put in an ok effort on heavy ground to finish 4.25L behind Darasal Wane in 5th. She had to come very wide on perhaps ground that was not as quick as where the others raced but that cant be confirmed so its merely a presumption. Orafinitis would probably have finished a length closer to the winner but McDonogh eased his mount when he knew he wasnât going to quite make the frame. Orafinitis has been dropped another 1lb for this effort and races off a mark of 62, only 6lb higher than his win at Gowran Park. Further to this, Orafinitis did shape as she needed that reappearance run after a 3 month break, although there is definitely a concern in my mind that this may no be true as her win came after a long break. Another huge concern I have is that the trainers son jumps off to ride for his handler Kevin Prendergast. Although Sam James is a very talented apprentice who is well worth his 5lb claim that allows Orafinitis to race off a mark that is effectively only 1lb higher than her sole win, I am certainly concerned that McDonogh has hopped off to ride a horse that hasnât done anything in her last 12 starts as in Orafinitisâ last race Prendergast had a horse in the race and McDonogh didnât need to ride it. As a result I will only be having a small e/w play on Orafinitis and I will also have a saver on McDonoghâs mount Cat Fire who is also a 20/1 shot. That said, Orafinitis has a very good draw in stall 3 and I am utterly convinced she is well capable of winning off this mark but whether or not it will be tomorrow is the real question.
Some cracking two year olds on offer at HQ today. Particular interest must be given to SILENT MOMENT in the 3.05 – the only filly up against the colts. There are plenty of fillies only maidens at this time of year (there was a divided fillies maiden at Yarmouth only yesterday over the same trip, the stable won the 1st division and had the favourite (3rd) for the 2nd) so it is intriguing that they’ve gone for this option. Also of interest is MAIN SEQUENCE (5.20) he won on his debut at odds of 50/1 – race report read “Slowly into stride, behind, headway but still plenty to do over 1f out, ran green and hung left just over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong to lead final 50yds, soon in command (op 33-1)” He originally had an entry for the Autumn Stakes (Group 3) on Future Champions Day, so they must now think a bit of him. YAA SALAM (3.40) was third behind Main Sequence in the Yarmouth maiden. If he runs a decent race it should bode well for MS. I’ve combined the three above with DISTRICT ATTORNEY (2.00) and HAAFHD HANDSOME (4.45) for a little e/w Lucky 31, just to add a bit of interest to the day!
Morning gents... Well at least we have some more horses to look at today... Has there ever been as low a turn out at Exeter yesterday ever before...!!! Anyway a few to go at today and so i put forward for consideration... Fontwell... 3.25 - Quelquun Comme Toi, 7/2 4.30 - Manadam, 3/1 5.05 - Bankstair, 7/2 Worcester... 4.20 - Illysantachristina, 11/4 Few combos of doubles and singles... Good luck to all today...
PN, would like to see it a bit softer for Haafhd Handsome, but he'll win some decent races with cut in the ground, for sure. Will have a wee punt on him today (first bet for quite a while). Don't like this time of the year for betting. (Erm, on your tea cosy thing. Ours has some interest. Bought in Pakistan by my wife years ago at an orphanage run by RC nuns. Hand-made by the children. No, I'm not saying whether or not I have tried it on! Still keeps the pot warm though).
Paul Hanagan has a 40% strike-rate in the last 12 months when teaming up with William Haggas. They teamed up together yesterday on a newcomer which Haggas said 'he liked' before it weakened late on, so I get the impression Hanagan is on his likelier newcomers at this stage of the season. Here he rides DISTRICT ATTORNEY 16/1 (Newmarket 2.00), who looks the pick of his 3 entrants and I fancy this one to make the frame. 3.00 Newmarket sees Godolphin run another beautifully bred type, in this case a filly taking on the colts, which as PN says, should be noted. I would therefore suggest SILENT MOMENT 11/4 is worth a bet. 3.40 Newmarket is another nice maiden, and with John Gosden and William Buick being particularly successful in maidens at this course, I would hope that Top Billing 8/1 can live up to its name and give a really bold showing on its debut. For those of you who might not really fancy anything today but would be prepared to just take a small stakes chance, Fury 13/2 (4.10 Newmarket) is overpriced on his best form but he does have doubts after running two stinkers in the summer. That said, Haggas has given him a 95 day break to resolve whatever the issue may have been, and he was in excellent form this time last season, winning a valuable sales race over course and distance, that had some very smart types in behind. If he bounces back, I think 13/2 is very fair, but you have to go small stakes as you just do not know with him. It would be a welcome winner for Kieron Fallon, though.
.2.35 Navan - Thomasgainsborough (NAP) - hammered on debut in to 2-1 fav - currently 100-30 today shaped nicely on debut. O'Brien won last 7 renewals including with fame and glory and recital
My nap today Quizzed 4.45 New 5/1 first bet of week. Also like Main Sequence 5.20 New 4/1. EW Singles and double. Have a good day all.
Newm 1.30 Diala 13/8 Short price but the form of her maiden could not have worked out any better and it will take something very good to beat her first time out.
Lucky 15 today Egypt Mill Spirit 2.20 Fontwell Kentford Grey Lady 2.10 Worcester Knockalongi 2.40 Worcester Ellaal 2.00 Newmarket And a saving double on Kentford and Well Regarded
Jubilance here- not happy with ride on Egypy Mill Spirit about 200 lengths last makes nice headway then runs in to trouble at the last - CLOWN
