Racing from Doncaster Ludlow Kempton Lingfield and Fairyhouse. One for me at Ludlow 3.35 KIRKHAMMERTON 5/1 gone close off of a mark of 88 in a couple of better races than this one earlier this season, races of off 74 here 14lb lower. Best Of Luck All
I am going back to basics and selecting horses who have form in the book and have been showing interesting signs in their races, and tomorrow it has thrown up three selections. Firstly we have the 3.25 at Doncaster in which I think we will see a much better performance by the Tom George trained Back Bob Back, who has been disappointing this season finishing well beaten on both starts. However he is the one horse in this field who I am happy to be with, having conditions more to suit (should get a relatively easy lead) and the return of an experienced jockey to the saddle. They went too fast last time out at Newbury and he paid the cost for doing so, but with Paddy Brennan taking over he should be able to dictate a more modest gallop and I think he may jump this field into the ground. He is a winner of a handicap off a mark just 3lbs lower than today, and he should be perfect in regards fitness after two runs this season. 9/2 looks a very fair price. Then we have two longer priced horses, both trading at 33/1 at the minute. In the 2.55 at Doncaster I like Rollwiththepunches, who ran well for a long way on his return at Ascot in December. He travelled up to the leader with two to jump before fading out of the race when they got to the finishing stages. He is a horse who has had problems, and he has moved from the Ferdy Murphy yard into the care of Ken Clutterbuck, whom I know little about. I felt that he blew up on his return and that he would be much better for the run, and I think the market has overlooked him massively on his old form of February 2011. He had been running in good novice hurdles in his younger days, beating Rackham Lerouge in one race and finishing relatively close to Captain Chris in another, and that made the handicapper give him a mark of 133. He ran a solid race off 130 on his second handicap run and since then he has dropped down to a mark of 115 and with the useful Trever Whelan on top he is carrying 5lbs less than that mark. If he does come on for his return, I see no reason why he can't run a big race and I think he will be better on this better ground too as well as the shorter trip. 33/1 looks wrong to me. At Ludlow we have better ground too and that is one of the things that attract me to the former Nicky Henderson trained Zama Zama. He has been running well behind the protagonists at Cheltenham this season, and as such he has been dropping steadily down the handicap. He now gets a trip to a lesser course (sorry Ludlow) and enters a lesser race. He is relatively lightly race and he has won a handicap off just 4lbs lower in the past, making him look like he is returning to the sort of mark that he can exploit. He actually travelled quite well on his first start of the season and that was the race that was run on better ground, and his victory last season was on ground that was good to firm, making him seem to be one who will appreciate the better going and I think he can outrun his price of 33/1. Both of the 33/1 shots are EW plays
He was pulled that day and somehow between now and then he's viewed as a much stronger proposition and is best priced 4/1 for tomorrow. He'll probably take an awful lot of beating but I'm not backing him at that price. So bloody annoying as I had a lovely bet on him the last day.
NASS; re ROLLWITHTHEPUNCHES, last time out at Ascot was his first run for a new yard and I agree he ran with credit. His form the season before was nothing short of horrendous when with Ferdy Murphy, I wonder if they were lining him up for a punt but the owner ran out of patience??? He has been dropped a further 5lbs since Ascot and if the shorter trip suits then he can run a big race. Good luck with him, I have had a small EW at 40-1. Win, lose or draw the ATR comment is very misleading!
Ferdy is woeful, he gets hyped up for the one or so horse he plots up for a big race, it has been a long time since Kalahari King and the likes of French Holly.
Some competitive stuff over the sticks tomorrow but nothing that screams at me to tip them up. There is however a likely sort in the Kempton 5.10. DIAMOND CHARLIE 15-2 is a course and distance winner off 85 just 13 months ago and lines up tomorrow on a paltry mark of 79. The yard are in decent form and you cant do much better than have Seb Sanders in the plate who has won on him in the past. Looks certain to go close!
Interesting runner for me tomorrow. The regulars on here will know that I came very close to "having a leg" in an unraced horse this season. Well the beast that I was sorely tempted to get involved in has his first outing tomorrow. This time tomorrow I may be feeling a little gutted but I wish him and his connections the very best of luck. The beast in question is called CHILL FACTOR and he runs in the Doncaster bumper at 3.55.
The bookies are starting their ante post thievery on the Cheltenham races. I managed to grab a last piece of 9/2 about Hurricane Fly for the Champion Hurdle a week ago - he has now shortened to 7/2 across the board, for no apparrent reason that I can see. Also Sir Des Champs is now a best-priced 5/1 for the Gold Cup - at the turn of the year there was plenty of 6/1 and even some 13/2 available. Again, I fail to see any reason for this. Bloody thieving gets. Jeremy Scott and Nick Scholfield talking up Empiracle on Channel 4 Racing at the weekend has done for his price in the Bumper - 20/1 available a week ago, now best price 12s
have they gone NRNB Oddy? If not, it is a shocking thing to shorten horses without any real change to the race make up.
One reason why I wait until the meeting these days. Punters being robbed by bookmakers with shocking place terms, shocking prices and lack of differences between bookmakers prices.
Cant see any real value in a lot of the Ante post markets right now for Cheltenham Festival and so many races are up in the air as you just dont know which race a lot of the horses will run in.....too many uncertainties so I'll stay well clear! By the way great to see so many familiar names on here from the old BBC 606 site Odddog, Nassauboard, Sir Barney.... great to see !! Ha. I await your words of wisdom. Ive been off the forums for a while - I was 'Pops' on the originsl 606 site but now 'CaptainPops' mainly as I backed Captain Chris in the King George and was so nearly celebrating a very big Christmas bonus !!
Cant play this antepost game the f****** are hard at it! And the risks are too high! To get a horse there tip top... youve worked a miracle. I had the 6/1 antepost favourite for the All England Cup once, a greyhound race at Newcastle. Group 1 event. This was off the back of winning a trial stakes there a few weeks before the event in a cracking time beating a Charlie Lister hotpot... I just thought if i get him there in one piece "ready" ive won a watch! Even then...... ive only got to beat 47 other dogs in a 4 round event over 2 weeks. Not get injured...and improve every run...with my best performance in the final...should have been a 14s chance at least..
If someone has a minute can you explain how a claimer works to me please. i had a quick look on google but didn't come up with anything. What i want to know is how are the weights worked out? Are they based on handicap marks? And who sets the price for which it can be claimed for? The only thing i think i know is 30% of the claim goes to the auctioneer?
The connections decide the horses value hawkeye and that is what sets the weight, pretty simple really
