In the 1.00 Nottingham the favourite looks pretty short for a Handicap Race.
Dalaalaat must surely have been named by someone whose A key was sticking on their keyboard and I feel a lot is being read into the fact that he beat subsequent 2000 Guineas runner-up King Of Change when winning his maiden at this course late last October. King Of Change won a race in April and that race has thrown up some winners since but he went from being rated 92 for that win, to 115 for being behind only Magna Grecia in the 2000 Guineas. That was a whopping 23 lbs rise, which raised my eyebrows and we have not seen him run since to confirm the improvement. All seven runs from the Guineas so far have seen defeats, with only one horse managing a place. How reliable is King Of Change's figure?
In any case, one horse's massive improvement need not translate directly to a horse who had earlier defeated him. Dalaalaat re-appeared with only a 5th place in a Conditions race here, when he was beaten more than 5 lengths. That leaves him rated 82 now, which seems workable but it is clearly miles short of his old sparring partner's new rating. He drops back in trip today, which could help but bookmakers are taking an awful lot of factors as already proven with odds of just 6/4.
King Ademar also has form with King Of Change and his form is more recent, having come in April of this season. That run saw King Ademar given 87 for his official rating and again that looks low enough if we can believe King Of Change ran anything like his new 115 figure when he beat King Ademar. Again, bookmakers are taking little chance with King Ademar at 5/2 and the simple fact is that both the market leaders have form with the Guineas 2nd and they can't both win, so I would rather take another horse each-way at bigger odds.
I went with Entrusting from the Fanshawe yard. He has shown promise in three races and makes his handicap debut dropped in trip to a mile. By Nathaniel he should have scope to improve with time and experience and his latest third place reads reasonably well with the second going on to win next time and the winner only getting beaten a short head by Headman in a good Newbury Handicap race next time. Entrusting's earlier run was also tied in with the same horse when they were 2nd and 3rd to John Gosden's Private Secretary, who won his next two starts and was in contention for the Derby at one stage.
Entrusting looks potentially useful and I thought he was an each-way play against the two "Hotpots" in the betting at odds of 10/1.
1.00 Nottingham Entrusting 10/1 EW
