Evening all BORUG 8.50 Kempton 100/30 Really like the look of Borug for James Tate and Fallon tomorrow evening at Kempton. He was a decent juvenile/3yo for Saeed Bin Suroor and was rated 93 at his best. His efforts in handicaps this season for his new handler suggest he is capable of winning off a mark of 83. The step back up to 12f for this horse should be ideal and he comes in to this in good form following an excellent 3rd behind subsequent Royal Ascot winner Gatewood at Epsom. He didn't have the best of luck in running that day but stayed on nicely towards the finish. The same can be said about his performance at Newmarket back in May where he finished 6th behind Danadana who has won again since with the second horse that day Qaraaba also franking the form with a easy next time out win before finishing 4th at Ascot behind Gatewood.
Sorry to go against you Rainbow and i will not be in the least bit surprised if Borug wins as that piece of form behind Gatewood just keeps looking better and better. I have decided the bet of the day value wise however is in the same race and has to be Incendo. This horse has bits of form that suggest he is capable of winning off of a mark of 82. If he and Borug were the same price i would go for Borug but at 14-1 Incendo is a great each way bet that could quite easily win. Kempton 8.50 Incendo 14-1
9.20 Kempton Ezdeyaad 8/1 NAP Very confident of a very big showing from Ed Walker's 8 year old who I think should go extremely close to landing this 1m class 4 event. After being campaigned in claimers towards the back end of last season after seemingly losing his way, he certainly looks a resurgent force on the basis of his last run and I think that he will strip fitter for that effort. On the basis on some of his efforts last year, he looks very well handicapped and although winless on the AW he has put up some efforts off higher marks to lead me to believe that he is just as effective on this surface and that it won't be very long for him to be making his mark. After a very progressive season in 2010 which saw him win 4 races from 5 starts, his handicap mark rocketed from a mark of 79 to 94 and in his peak he was a really talented animal. After the large hike in the weights, the handicapper seemed to have Ezdeyaad's number as his last 4 starts of the 2010 season were poor as he was probably handicapped to the hilt. However after a break he seemed to bounce back to form in 2011. After making a reappearance run, Ezdeyaad ran a cracking 0.75L beaten 4th at Lingfield over 1m in a Class 3 handicap off a mark of 88 last February. That day he hit the front with about 1.5f to go and he was swamped very late on by a bunch of fast finishers and he was eventually run out of the money. The form of that race is quite strong with the winner finishing a narrowly beaten 2nd in a Listed contest on his next start. In the context of this race, it was an excellent effort and makes todays handicap mark of 79 extremely manageable. After a couple of poor starts on turf, he ran a good race to be a 3L beaten 6th in a hot handicap at Newmarket and showed he was still in good order when landing a 7f event at Folkestone last May off a mark of 85. After occupying his traditional sit behind the leaders, Ezdeyaad had to be pushed along for the final couple of furlongs and he just about got up on the line under Jack Mitchell to win by a head. The form of that race is solid with the 3rd putting in a very good 0.5L beaten 2nd on his next start and it showed Ezdeyaad's battling quality. Ezdeyaad had 5 more starts after this win last year with the last 3 in claimers and I think a busy campaign may have caught up with him towards the end of the season. However, his handicap fell as a result of that and after a reappearance run in April this gelding ran an excellent race LTO. Earlier this month, Ezdeyaad ran an excellent 0.75L beaten 3rd at the course over 7f off a mark of 77 and it definitely showed he has a lot of ability and verve for racing left in him. After sitting in behind the leaders, Ezdeyaad came there absolutely cantering all over the leaders and the button was pushed just over a furlong out as he hit the front. However, he didn't really pick up in the manner I expected him to as two rivals passed him but it certainly was a very good effort. Although the form of that race is yet to be tested, the two in front of him seemed to be progressive and I think it was a very solid effort. Moreover, after analysing a lot of his previous races I really think that he is going to come on a lot from the run. Ezdeyaad isn't the sort of horse you'd associate as a strong traveller and he certainly picks up well when driven as demonstrated by his last success. Thus I certainly feel that run will have brought him on quite a bit and I expect to see him finish off his race tonight much better. He has been raised to a mark of 79 for his latest 3rd but he is still very well handicapped judged on his win off 85 and his effort at Lingfield off a mark of 88. Talented apprentice Michael Murphy takes over the reigns today and he takes off an extremely valuable 7lb on what is his only ride of the night as he is upped an extra furlong to 1m. Trainer Ed Walker couldn't be in better form right now with 5 of his last 9 runners winning and this represents his only engagement of the night. With the perfect draw in stall 1 which should allow him to grab a place on the rail, I'm very confident of a massive showing from this 8 year old gelding and I think he's going to prove extremely difficult to beat.
Morning, people. There is always much excitement in the county on 'Bibury Cup' day and although I won't be attendance, or be wagering on the main event, nonetheless I'll recommend, on this day, to the dear old regular readers: Related (3.20 Salisbury) - trained by Clive Cox this colt, who cost £80,000, is out of the decent racemare Balladonia and a half-brother to such useful types as Mister Hardy and, the Group 1 winning, Wootton Bassett (wonder if he too has been allotted the old 'Royal' moniker). Makes his racecourse debut in this race and can be expected to go very, I say very, well. Related is engaged in many of the big sales races, later on in the campaign, and it really wouldn't surprised me if long term he was capable of figuring, at the business end, in some of these heats. Very nice prospect, methinks, and I keenly await his bow. Miss Ballantyne (5.15 Worcester) - I can see Miss Ballantyne obliging here for the forum's favourite trainer, Mr Henderson. The mare has proved herself to be above average in running respectable races in 2 National Hunt Flat heats prior to unfortunately falling on her hurdling introduction at Wetherby in May. She would in all likelihood have finished a nice 2nd that day and with that experience behind her added to the benefit of some soothing words from Mr Henderson, following the fall, expect Miss Ballantyne to score here. The step down to 16 furlongs should aid her cause as should the mares allowance that she receives from all her rivals today. Good luck, one. Good luck, all.
Morning all...And still no sign of summer poking its head through the clouds, so with Wimbledon just starting dont expect it clearing much soon... A few today that i like, well actually its more a case of following the jockey really... Jason Maguire has a few rides down at Worcester, and although most are the current favs i can see him getting a few up to the line... 2.10 - Valento, 2/1 - The fav, Battle Group, isnt totally bomb proof and Valento can hopefully go one better from his last run which was here and at the same distance... 2.40 - Bhaltair, 5/2 - A few could win this one and its not the easiest of Jasons rides to say he will win but Bhaltair comes here on the back of 2 good runs and looks to maybe improve further... 4.45 - Raajih, 11/8 - Looking to follow up on last nights win, maybe the recovery factor might go against him, but its been done before and still looks like the one to beat... 5.15 - Dance Tempo, 15/8 - Ran well for his 2nd at Stratford lto and is up against a beaten fav lto here at Worcester in Catch Tammy. The Pipe horse didnt run well at all here last month and if tuned up will be the big danger... Only a small lucky15 for a bit of fun... Good luck to all who play today...
Anyone got an early fancy for ‘Richard Pitman’s Derby’ at Newcastle on Saturday??? I see the trends are pointing to something at the foot of the weights as its now 10 years since a horse won with a rating in excess of 93.
LUCKY E/W 15 AND ACCY (2 of ROTO's and 2 of my own) 33/1 - Baltic Prince 14:30 Carlisle 11/1 - Miami Gator 15:30 Carlisle 8/1 - Norse Blues NAP 16:25 Salisbury 7/1 - Ezdeyaad 21:20 Kempton
The 8.00 at Naas looks a cracking listed race and i think its very interesting that Dermot Weld is pitching Caponata in at this level straight after winning its debut. She won that extremely well in the style of a very smart filly. Dermot Weld should have a line through Betterbetterbetter after Sapphire beat her quite comfortably a couple of weeks back and if she finds the improvement they expect her too i think she should be very difficult to beat here. Aaraas rates a potential danger given the way she finished only a length behind Princess Highway and in front of Was on her last start however those two have clearly come on leaps and bounds for that run and im not sure Aaraas has the same scope for improvement, her strike rate is also quite offputting. With both her and the selection both being 9/2 i know which one i would rather be backing!
Tough race that one Brough. Couldn't decide what was the most likely winner myself after quite a long study last night. Now the prices are available BetterBetterBetter and Aaraas are my two against the field as their form, to my eye, looks a notch above the rest. I'd be on Aaraas quite heavily if that nagging doubt about her interest in putting it all in wasn't there. No bet for me.
Cor blimey, my Related is getting backed off the old boards down at Salisbury. Wonder if it’s just the ‘regular readers’ joining in the gamble?!? There seems to have been a bit of an overreaction to Simenon winning a couple on the level at old Royal Ascot meanwhile. Those bookie chappies have clipped him into 16/1 for next terms ‘Champion Hurdle’ despite him currently being rated about 2 stones below what is normally required! RV, Thimaar is a quality horse but looks very high in the old ratings at the moment.
There'll be sweet FA coming from this correspondent over the next 3 weeks - I will be sunning myself on good old Majorca (where the water don't taste like what it ought to, as Sir Barney might say). Bon chance with the old donkeys to everyone and here's hoping that anyone bar the Erics win the footie
3.30 Carlisle Miami Gator 11/1 Although it seems very likely that he'll be taken on for the lead which isn't ideal, I think last years winner of this race who won last week when I put him up at 25/1 is certainly worth a bet. On his last start he came home a very impressive winner at Hamilton under a fantastic ride under todays 7lb claimer Conor Harrison and now he's rediscovered the winning trend I think he could be very difficult to pen back today at a course he loves. In his 6 previous visits over C+D, he boasts a tremendous record of 3 victories a short head 2nd and a 1L beaten 4th and is clear he goes extremely well here which is a massive bonus at a track where course form is extremely important. Furthermore, I think todays ground should improve his chances as he's an out and out galloper who does not shirk in a battle and I think these qualities should hopefully see him very difficult to beat in his front running style. Last year, Miami Gator started off his 4 year old campaign on the back of a busy winter and on his first start of 2011 he put up an excellent effort at Lingfield over 1m last January when finishing a 1L beaten 3rd off a mark of 79. After attempting to make all, Miami Gator was collared in the final strides by two rivals as he ended up being beaten by only 1L. The form of that race looks very solid with the winner running well off 4lb higher marks subsequently, the 2nd Ocean Legend won off a 1lb higher mark 2 starts afterwards and the 4th Wilfred Pickles won 2 of his subsequent 3 starts. After running only ok in a couple of claimers over in France, Miami Gator ran a cracking race when finishing a 1L beaten 4th at the course last May off a mark of 78. After adopting his typical front running style, he was clear of the pursuers until about the final half furlong where 3 of his rivals swamped him at the finish and went past. It was a very solid effort, and Miami Gator would have his revenge a month later. In the corresponding race last year, Miami Gator took on two of the three rivals who had beaten him the month prior off the same mark of 78 but he turned the tables with them as he landed the Class 4 event in fine style when scoring by 1.75L. In traditional front running fashion, he was joined and indeed headed by the eventual second Vito Volterra with about 2f to go but he battled back gamely to get on top of that rival to land the race impressively. The form of that race couldn't be any stronger. The 2nd and 3rd both won on their next starts off the same mark whilst the 3rd Take it to the Max is now 16lb higher than he was that day so its clear he beat some in form rivals impressively that day. After being raised 8lb for this win, he put in an ok effort at York before getting back on the winning track when landing a claimer at Sandown last July. Although he was worse off at the weights with the 2nd and 3rd, its hard to evaluate that form and I think its best not to look into it too much, although the handicapper did raise him to a mark of 89 after that effort. Miami Gator's final start as a 4 year old came last September where he was pretty disappointing at Ayr. After taking the winter off, Miami Gator has had 3 starts this year including two over in France in claimers before arriving back at todays C+D. That day he wasn't at his best but he still put in a very solid effort to finish a 6.5L. In the early part of this year he wasn't really at his best but considering it was the first time since 2009 that he had more than a 2 month break I think he would have needed these 4 runs to get back to full fitness. On his last start he demonstrated that he was back to his best when landing a 1m Class 4 event at Hamilton last week in fine style off a mark of 77. In traditional fashion, Miami Gator made all and Conor Harrison had to be at his best as he needed to scrub along this 5 year old from about 3f out (always races like this). He galloped on excellently and he never ever looked like getting headed as he went on to score by 0.5L, but I think he'd have pulled out a little more if he needed to. I think its very telling to note that he turned the tables wit I'm Super Too, who had finished in front of at Carlisle on his previous start, which I think validates my claim that he's only just after reaching peak fitness. I think its also very interesting to note that Harrison said after the race that "we were worried about the quick ground when we walked the track before racing" (good, good to firm in places) so I'm slightly upgrading that effort. As a result of that win, Miami Gator has to carry a 6lb penalty and races off an effective mark of 83. Its clear he's going to have to produce a career best effort to land this but I certainly think once he hits the winning trend he is very difficult animal to beat. He's encountering completely different ground than he faced last time with the going currently soft but he has won on soft ground before so it is absolutely no concern to me whatsoever. He won this race last year in fine style off a mark of 78 and if replicating that effort I think he could prove very difficult to beat. Conor Harrison, who couldn't have given him a better ride last time, keeps the ride and his 7lb claim (allowing him to race off effectively 76) should be a big help. He has good early speed which should allow him to get what looks like it could be quite a competitive battle for the front but I think he'll definitely be quick enough out of his sit in stall 8 to at least get a share of the lead. Although its going to take a career best effort, he's found the winning grove as he returns to a track he loves. If Harrison sets his fractions right from the front, I think he could prove very difficult to pass and I definitely think he can land the Carlisle Bell for the second year running.
