4.25 Ascot Common Touch 40/1 represents my NAP of the day tomorrow and probably 2nd most fancied horse to Saddlers Rock this week.
My only bet of the day is Captain Bertie who I still think has more to give and at 12/1 I think he is a very fair EW bet in the Royal Hunt Cup. His form with Fury looks solid in context of handicap company and I don't think we have got to the bottom of him either. I think if the gaps don't close on him, he is the one to beat in the Hunt Cup, and as such I have backed him.
Fanshawe, Chevely Park, Johnny Murtagh up, gave Cape Classic 11 pounds and a beating over 7f at Ascot last year, took 15 wide on the bend first time out this year to finish second in a good race, stinks to high heavens. Dimension 9/1 Group horse in a handicap Procession on the cards, 3-5 lengths
I liked this one too at first glance but have found two reasons not to back it. Firstly it's gone up three pounds for getting beat, never something I like and secondly, Fallon isnt on board. George Baker was happy to tell anyone who would listen at Windsor on Monday that he fancies the chance of his BELGIAN BILL and Fallon is in the saddle. I am not saying that Fallon had the choice but he was certainly booked up plenty early enough for the Baker runner. As for 3-5 lengths...it will need to be Group One class to turn the Hunt Cup into a procession!
When Fanshawe has a group horse in a handicap, Johnny gets the mount Fallon has told those closest to him that he is absolutely devastated but he always knew Johnny would recieve the call when the day to release a Fanshawe group horse from the wilderness of the handicap system comes. Regards the weight issue, you can look at it two ways, one, he deserved to go up 8 pounds for giving Cape Classic 11 pounds and a beating, and two, he should have won last time so is effectively a winner with a half penalty. So you will need to find some more reasons to oppose this beast.
Well he has gone up 8lbs since beating Cape Classic so he is now running off his proper mark. Hardly thrown in and unexposed is he. Looks like we can all give up the day jobs now that we have found someone who has an ear to Mr Fallon, excellent news!
Just had a quick look at the formbook for Captain Bertie's last run. The race has thrown up 9 winners, 5 of which won next time out, and therefore the form looks massively impressive in regards this race. He does go up in the weights but still has more to give in my opinion. fwiw next time out winners finished 3rd, 11th, 13th, 15th and 17th with 2nd, 5th, 6th, 14th all winning on their second run after the race. Impressive?
Slightly more impressive than being beaten by a Mike Attwater horse on your last run! Best of luck Nass
I agree Nass Captain Bertie should be there or thereabouts One I like tomorrow is Hello Glory 12/1 in the lucky last. I've also been told Lay Time willhave her day this season but I don't know if it will be tomorrow given the top 2 in the betting are Group One winners.
2.30 Aljamaheer 3.05 Nahrain 3.45 So You Think 4.25 Common Touch (ROTO) 5 Jubilee Diamond 5.35 Electralane
Who is this Boris guy, he reminds me abit of that other guy that kept changing him name (cant remember his name)- had a soviet union flag as his pic! Just trying to cause trouble!!
Evening all would just like to share some big priced fancies for tmz - hope that is ok with you Boris - will try and get reasons up later Justineo 2.30 25/1 Joviality 3.05 12/1 Invisible Man 4.25 20/1 Villeneuve 5.35 33/1
16.25 Edinburgh Knight- 12/1 Am nervous going up against you ROTO so will have a small wager on both! But picked him out a long time ago. Coming from box 20. Is handicapped to win this. Ended 2011 in major high, winning here in october beating subsequent winner of goodwood a few weeks ago Primeval. He is off a 1lb lower mark than when 4th in the Lincoln lto and has been saved for this race since then!
I like joviality too RV, always seems to run a big race when least expected to, has run some brave races in G1 company but I feel she may need further!
Wooly - really liked her run at Epsom last time out. Feel she was the best filly in the race by some way and I was on the winner. Didn't handle Epsom at all imo. I don't think this is a strong race after going through the form. Emolous and Chachamaidee are good for sure - but surely Nahrain will need the run and I am not scared of the rest. I see Joviality is 14/1 in places - good E.W bet.
15:05 Chachmaidee 9/2 2nd in this race last year. Taken to have improved and impressive return at Lingfield last time. Others 15:45 Carlton House. Good luck all,
