2.00 York Medici Time 33/1 Absolutely love trying to solve these big field sprint handicaps and I'm settling for Tim Easterby's apparent 2nd string in the shape of Medici Time. Granted, I may be mad for taking on Shropshire who was beaten a neck by Maarek on his last start considering I rate the winner so much but for some reason I just don't like him. I think Shropshire actually raced on the better side of the track even though Maarek won on the other side. Barring the winner, nothing came from off the pace and I think the race panned out in a way that suited Shropshire. Finally, in Shropshire's two runs at the track he's finished well down the field twice so there is a definite uncertainty about his ability to act at York and he probably likes the ground a bit softer than it currently is. Medici Time comes here on the back of a break from October but has a fantastic record running fresh. In the last 3 years from pretty much the same break, he's won once and come 2nd twice so I am certainly buoyed by his excellent record fresh. His last 4 races last year were solid without being spectacular and as a result he's fallen 4lb in the handicap to a mark of 85 which I certainly think is very workable. He's now only 1lb above his last winning mark which came at Newmarket last June where he won by a neck after getting up close home over the 5f trip. The form of that race looks strong with the 2nd Lujeanie finishing 3rd behind Murura on his next start with a 4lb higher mark and it was certainly a likeable effort by Medici Time. On his next start after that, and on his 5th last start, Medici Time ran a very good 1.25L beaten 4th off a mark of 89 at Ascot. Ignoring the winner who was clearly extremely well handicapped and very unlucky in running, the form of that race looks solid with the 2nd Sohraab holding his form well off the same mark and the 3rd Confessional has won again since off a 3lb higher mark. Although he hasn't won over 6f since 2009, I've watched and rewatched a lot of Medici Time's 5f victories and on several occasions it looks as if the 6f trip would definitely suit. Medici Time has had 3 starts at York including a win over 5f last June so he clearly goes well at the track. Studying previous similar events at York, I think the draw in stall 16 should be absolutely ideal for Medici Time and even if low numbers prove to be favoured the fact this 7 year old is generally held up should allow him to switch tactics if needed. Tom Eaves takes the ride and clearly gets on very well with this animal and he is a very encouraging jockey booking in my eyes. From his two rides on Medici Time, Eaves boasts a win at the course as well as a less than 2L beaten 4th and its a major positive in my eyes. Although most of his opposition have had runs this season, Medici Time has a great record fresh which I'm sure he can use to his advantage. Given the size of the field, he should get the fast pace that will suit which should hopefully allow him to swoop fast and late. Trainer Tim Easterby is in good form and off a mark of 85 I think he's very overpriced at 33s, and looks huge at 75s on Betfair. If all goes to plan, I'm confident of a very big run from Medici Time and hopefully he can land this valuable handicap.
Thought the other thread was Daily Thread so apologies for my reposting: Day off work tomorrow so I've had chance to look at the Day One York card. For those interested, I've been doing much better without betting, managing to master that feeling of 'if only id have backed it' by looking at the odd race, watching my selection win, and not having a penny on it, which is a good step forward. I've not missed it either to be honest. Online accounts are closed and I am really seeing racing from a back seat and from a distance now, which is nice and more enjoyable. Just getting a casual feel for the sport has been refreshing as opposed to the monetary/gambling side of the game, just watching what unfolds and not worrying about the results! Had a glimpse at tomorrows card and might catch the Musidora (if its on TV?) as I expect to watch Twirl give Aiden O'Brien a headache and a potential triple-handed assault on the Epsom Oaks with Kissed and Homecoming Queen alongside. Two other things I thought of noteworthy discussion amongst yourselves would be the chances of Ted Barrons Waffle in the 2.00 sprint, as he has begun sliding towards a workable mark and is race-fit, and the other horse perhaps a more obvious starting point in Flag Officer in the 1.30. Godolphin have perservered and he swerved Chesters heavy ground for this, and is potentially a bit ahead of handicap company, though obviously fragile. Will be interesting to see how he could possibly progress. RE Medici Time- ROTO I had winners with him back in 2009 at a nice price and he tends to go well first time out. Had a feeling you might spot him up for tomorrows race. Maybe the grade a touch too hot for him and I see him running on late but past beaten horses. Best of luck though, lovely grey he is.
I like Hoof It. Took 4/1 earlier this week. Can't see him beaten to be honest but for him to not be in the first three is very unlikely. Fontwell bumper - very sweet on Buffy The Beatle tomorrow in the bumper but no prices currently available.
A fantastic meeting at York which is in my opinion the fairest course in the country. There are very few hard luck stories at York, unlike Chester of last week where you can do all the homework in the world but when the draw is made throw your notes in the bin. I have been taking it very easy from a punting point of view with all this soft ground but have decided to have a proper play tomorrow. At present am interested in a few and will firm things up in the morning, however i am with you Top Class on Flag Officer 4-1 as could be easily a cut above this lot. Also Restiadargent 12-1 the French horse must be worth a bet at the price, whilst Baccarat 5-1 in the last is apparently well thought of and expected to finish the season on a mark quite a bit higher than today.
Watching a show where I'm at about Harry Gregg,cult figure in NI...Manu goal keeper from a long time ago. What a legend..proper hero. A term used too loosely currently.
Spoke to PN re Waffle yesterday. He is well enough and looks a picture.Same report I got last time when I was also reminded about the fact that he hasn't won since debut in 22 odd go's. Soft ground suits him better and York isn't ideally his track.They will have small e/w but hopeful more than confident..more targets later in the season from what I'm told.He is very well regarded though and thought capable of being better than a h'capper a la Hitchens. Then again he told me Waffle would finish ahead of his shared interest CM last week at HQ...all on the day with sprinters.
3:00 Hoof it. 10/3. Had him all last year. So unlucky in last start. My biggest bet since Cheltenham to date. Am no expert but good luck to all and Hoof It!
1.30 York New Hampshire 16/1 Fascinating contender for Tony Coyle whose last race makes for incredibly hard reading. Previously with John Gosden, this 4 year old made his debut of Coyle at Ripon last month after being gelded in a 4 runner affair which makes for extremely difficult reading. After watching this race numerous times, I've come to the conclusion where I think there was no fluke about New Hampshire's effort. Making the running under tomorrow's jockey Lee Topliss, it appeared to my eyes to be a fairly steady pace. Coming into the home straight, New Hampshire was headed by two of his rivals before finding more until he became very uncontrollable as he drifted all the way to the near side rail and even collided with the fence losing momentum before eventually going down by 1.5L. During his manoeuvre, I'm guessing New Hampshire lost about 7 or 8L and if reading it as true form it was a really excellent effort. The winner Jet Away is a 114 rated animal who has won off a similar break before and if New Hampshire ran in a straight line he would surely have run out the race winner. Furthermore, the 3rd home has won off a mark of 95 last year and the last to finish Black Spirit is a 100 rated horse so if looking at the form literally New Hampshire's handicap mark of 90 looks extremely lenient. When with John Gosden, New Hampshire put in some decent efforts including a 4L beaten 5th at Lingfield off a mark of 89 when the front four home were held up and a 0.5L beaten 2nd at Kempton off a mark of 84. Even if you disregard New Hampshire's last run, if you factor in the potential improvement the horse could get from turning 4, being gelded and the switch to a new trainer then his mark of 90 certainly looks feasible. Tomorrow, he faces a tough task a completely different prospect in this 14 runner field but I genuinely think New Hampshire is very well handicapped off a mark of 90. I think its very, very interesting that Coyle has New Hampshire entered into the Group 2 Hardwick Stakes next month which is his only horse with any fancy entries. Connections paid 20,000gns to acquire New Hampshire so they obviously felt he had significant scope to improve. The return to the left handed York should definitely help considering his huge tendency to veer left on his last start. Again the excellent Lee Topliss takes the ride and he takes off a very valuable 3lbs. He could win this easily or fail miserably but at 16/1 I'm trusting my reading of his last race and I think he can run a massive race.
3.35 York Granston 20/1 If Chilly Filly wins I'll be annoyed but her quirks have just put me off. Resultantly, I'm siding with James Bethall's truly excellent servent Granston who I think could run a very big race and upstage his field of juniors. Now 11 years old, Granston is one of the great advertisements to racing, especially considering his ability to operate on such a high level. Tomorrow Granston makes his seasonal reappearance and has an absolutely tremendous record doing so in the past few years. His last 4 seasonal reappearances read 1-2-2-2 and he was only beaten by more than 1.5L once, which was against subsequent Breeders Cup Turf winning Dangerous Midge so its clear he ran into a good thing that year! Last year Granston made his reappearance off a mark of 84 where he ran out an impressive winner by 1.5L at Beverley. He also demonstrated that this wasn't a flash in the pan as he continued to run good races including two narrow defeats off a mark of 88, both in Class 3 events. Tomorrow, he returns off a mark of 85 and I certainly think he looks well handicapped. Moreover, this will be his first return to a Class 4 event since his victory last year. He clearly goes well at the track and although he hasn't won he's been beaten 1.5L less on 3 of his 5 visits to the track. Graham Gibbons takes the ride tomorrow and he was on board for his successful reappearance last year. Trainer James Bethall is in very good form at present and this represents the trainer's only runner of the day. Although clearly the most exposed in the field, Granston has an outstanding record fresh and if continuing that trend I think he can run a very big race at 20/1 and I'll be absolutely chuffed if this 11 year old can spring a bit of a shock by landing this 20 runner event.
Morning all Off in to York this aft on piss so won't be around, hopefully be able to watch a couple of races!! For what it's worth here's my selections, (btw its been windy, sunny and reasonably dry last few days!! So ground should be drying out) 1.30 Flag Officer, 4/1 2.00 York Glory, 7/1, NAP 2.30 Not really bothered but will take The Fugue, 11/8 3.00 Society Rock, 9/1 tho Hoof It 11/4, may take some beating 3.35 Aldwick Bay 15/2 and Mica Mika 11/2 4.10 Tatlisu, 2/1, price has gone now tho (got 3's last night) 4.45 Tartiflette 13/2 and Barracat (again price has gone, 9/2 was 14's last night) Good luck all
This from today's English edition of Deutsche Welle: "“We deplore this weak and unjust decision. After the further unprecedented posturing of the CPS (Crown Prosecution Service) we will respond later today after our return from the police station,” Brooks and her husband, racehorse driver Charlie Brooks, said in a statement." Kind of odd, calling him a "racehorse driver"? Picture of Rebekah too; man, she looks rough!
2.00 York Valery Borzov 25/1 thought I would put up an outsider for once and I do think this horse is good each way value. should appreciate the ground, I think 6f is the best distance judged on 2 good performances in sprint handicaps last season, the jockey and trainer are in form, has had a couple of runs already this season, oh and has won at this meeting before. the one negative might be the draw, but at the price it has to be a good each way bet.
Timeform ratings for the 3.35 if you are interested; 104 GRANSTON, RED JADE 103 SWINGING HAWK 102 BOLLIN FELIX, MICA MIKA 101p THE FUN CRUSHER 101 ALDWICK BAY,KYLLACHY SECRET, EL TORBELLINO
Morning, all. Hope everyone well. Good, good. Anyway today I’ll recommend: Hoof It (3.00 York) – was one of the stars of last season as he rapidly climbed the ranks from handicapper to potential Champion sprinter. I don’t think that this strongest renewal of the ‘Duke of York’ ever and see Hoof It as the clear standout performer. He won first time up last term so fitness shouldn’t be an issue whereas on official marks he is clear at the top. Looks a top, top prospect and could emerge, by seasons end, as the standout performer in this division. Valmari (8.40 Bath) – over the years I’ve witnessed many a plot at Bath and think that this evening there are numerous examples on the card as a few old rogues get to work – you could in fact say there are more plots at the meeting than in an Agatha Christie novel. The one that I’ll put up though is the ‘lucky last’ runner in the ‘lucky last’ race trained by Tom Symonds, Mr Henderson’s former assistant. This mare is on a mark of just 56, I say 56, here and that looks lenient given the fact that she has performed with great credit over hurdles this winter (won and was second and rated as high as 120 in that sphere). The mark of 56 also looks very nice given that she was an 80+ performer just over 2 years ago. Although she can be described as somewhat inconsistent I don’t think Valmari should be anywhere near 20/1 and think that great value in not the best race ever held across the county line. Good luck, people.
Hoof It for me, would have won a G1 last year had he not stumbled out of the stalls and he is impressing at home. Fallon thinks he is a Group 1 horse, so that will do for me.
Hoof It is 3.25 to lay on Betfair. Surely this is a gift given the draw, the strength of the opposition, and the fact that Sprints in the UK are historically so difficult to predict? The last 4 winners of this race were sent off at 5/1, 20/1, 16/1 and 15/2. Having backed Mayson at 9/2, I was looking to lay some of that off at 4.6, but am now in a quandary. Do I just let the bet ride as I think he deserves to be favourite, lay some off as intended, or lay the front 2?
HOOF IT is being absolutely smashed into. 9/4 in a couple of places but generally 2/1 across the board. The only worry is that he would certainly prefer slightly quicker ground.
I'm slightly betwixt and between too Archers. I backed Hoof It last night at 4/1 with Laddies but have laid it off on Betfair at around 9/4. I wouldn't have any great confidence and my intention was always to trade out. The money suggests a good degree of confidence and I think it was clear that 4/1 was too big with the ground drying.
Does that mean Dabarism doesnt love Soumillon as much as Soumillon loves himself? Be interested to know what you guys would back today "without" HOOF IT. Looks a nice EW betting heat but with so many question marks over so many of the others I cant decide.
