Wednesday's Meetings Nottingham Flat 9 Races 1:00-5:20p.m. Punchestown N/H 7 Races 1:15-4:35p.m. Bath Flat 8 Races 1:40-5:35p.m. Wetherby N/H 8 Races 1:52-5:45p.m. Kempton(E) A/W 9 Races 4:25-8:30p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
I've had a look at the 3:55 at Bath today, and I have probably wasted a lot of time looking beyond the obvious, but I think its a race to be interested in. Quel Destin is an even price favourite, and like the stable cat, he has had wind surgery over the break. Apparently the cat has responded well to it, and it has stopped coughing fur-balls. He is rated 68 on the flat and looks incredibly well handicapped (I am sure we've been down this road many times before), but he ran in this race last year off 66 and only finished 3rd, he then went on and won the 4yo hurdle at the Cheltenham meeting ten days later. Again this is sure to be a prep run for Cheltenham, and again he is ridiculously short on what he has shown in his flat racing career. I expect he will travel like a good thing, but will he need the run? I wouldn't be wanting to find out at even money. Tiger Ten is the obvious one against him, being a three year old by Born To Sea, and having very decent recent form. He however looks like he needs four miles on the flat, finishing best at Goodwood on heavy when the race was already over for the win. He has crept up the handicap and drawn wide means that he needs some fortune in running to get the best run around. At 5/2 I am more than happy to swerve him too. So with two taking that much out of the market, I have looked at the "value" and the two I have come up with are from the same trainer, and have run against each other at this track already this season. Norab is one, and then look further down the card, keep going, and yes, Earthly is the second. Norab is the stronger of the two, drawn well, in good form and likes the distance and course. He is a regular at Chepstow, but he also does well at Bath for the trainer from Fochriw. He ran a very good race here when beaten by Earthly (will come to him soon) early in the season when looking the winner for much of the final furlong. He is only 1lb higher than that day and importantly he doesn't mind good or good-soft ground. At 20/1 he looks pretty good value, especially if you can get the four places for the Each Way bet. Earthly is more of a test to support, however that race with Norab alone makes him hard to pass over at 40/1. That makes him a course and distance winner, he then followed that up with a good run over 1m6f at the course next time out, when not getting a clear run. He has been seen on the all weather since, not showing much but as a result he is dropping back down the handicap. He runs off a mark just the wrong side of 50, which is still feasible for this horse, and given that two horses take out much of the market, I don't think 40/1 is a bad price at all. It is worth noting that in the last 14 days the yard have had 1 winner and 3 3rd place horses from four runners, so clearly the yard are in decent enough form, and I am hopefully that the master of Fochriw can deliver another upset in the battle of Lansdown Hill.
Shepherds Way 1620 Nottingham was 5/2 last night now 4s, 3 year old filly won last 2 on similar going cl5 cl4 cant see whats to stop her taking another step up and winning this cl3 with a 5lb hike.
