Evening, all. I won't inflame Barney's simmering paranoia by saying that I've been told this, so let's just say that my enthusiasm hasn't been discouraged by people close to the stable.
My interest in NH racing is on the southern side of nil, but I've been struck by the presence of ADJOURNED in the bumper at Southwell (4.50). This thing was entered in a 3yo-only bumper at Huntingdon last Thursday, and taken out overnight, apparently because the world knew how useful the Elsworth winner (Aggressive) was. Today's race is a 3-5yo event, with what look to be some very slow four year olds in it. and Adjourned - by Rip van Winkle out of a Dalakhani mare - should have too much foot for most of them. My optimism is increased by the weight factor set out below*, and I think that if you can find 3-1 or better as they go to post, you should have a bet.
* I've never understood this; the early-October weight for age allowance between 3yo and 4yo in two-mile NHF races is a stonking 17 lb. The same allowance in two-mile flat races is 9 lb. On good ground (as forecast at Southwell tomorrow) with a top-class flat-bred horse, I really can't see any difference between this race and (say) a two-mile all-age maiden at Doncaster. I'm sure the BHA handicappers will have an explanation, but as far as I'm concerned, at least 7 lb of Adjourned's allowance tomorrow is pure bonus. Owner John Dance is coming off a fine weekend with Laurens, Brian Hughes should have no problem with the weight, and all the signs seem favourable.