Under The Spotlight: 'Episode 3'- Peddlers Cross | Horse Racing

A foreword: with the current 'whip rule' saga rumbling on, I felt today was the right time to bring out an article on one of our 'big guns', as it were. I wanted to bring back the focus to racing and bring back some exciting thoughts for Cheltenham 2012. Episode 2 was a most fruitful discussion and it is good to have got through a thread on Cue Card relatively unscathed! Anyway, hope you are enjoying it so far. As always, feedback will be welcomed.

Under The Spotlight: Episode 3: Peddlers Cross

Probably novice chasing’s biggest recruit this season, Peddlers Cross enters the 2011/12 NH season as a clear favourite for the Arkle at Cheltenham in March and with an awful lot of excitement around his switch to fences.

Looking at his formbook, it is little wonder why. Unbeaten until his epic dual with Hurricane Fly at the last in the Champion Hurdle, Peddlers Cross banished fears that he did not have the speed to cope with the best hurdlers at the highest level and yet again highlighted his stamina, staying on strongly all the way to the line - just as he did when he defeated Binocular in the Fighting Fifth earlier last season. He was disappointing at Aintree on final start, perhaps Cheltenham had taken an awful lot out of him (he wouldn’t be the only one, given the performances of Denman and Kauto Star, amongst others, in post-Cheltenham races).

As I have reiterated, the breeding side of things in the NH sphere is still new to me, so I need the feedback from the board to help me understand one thing in particular. So many times last season we would hear people say that Peddlers Cross was bred to be a chaser, and that he would almost certainly be better over fences. Do you think that will be the case and if so why does he stand out as a chaser in the making?

I was listening closely to Paul Nicholls this week when I heard him say that despite the Arkle being the minimum trip over fences at Cheltenham, you still need to be able to stay strongly. This is one thing that genuinely excited me with regards to the prospects of Peddlers Cross, because he stayed 2 and a half miles over hurdles and as we saw in the Champion, he absolutely keeps finding and finding until the line. His performance that day proved he had the speed and therefore that combination makes him a huge, huge potential player for the Arkle in 2012.

I think he is generally trading at 6/1 for the Arkle and I suppose that is a price that can be argued both ways in value terms. Those who really like the horse will think it’s more than fair, whereas those prepared to back against him probably think he is too short given the exciting opposition, including Sprinter Sacre in particular, then the likes of Al Ferof, Solwhit and one who I personally think is a dark horse for the season over fences (and I have an inkling that Paul Nicholls does so as well), Sam Winner.

What sort of record do horses like this have when they go chasing? When I ask that, I’m referring to horses that, as Sir Barney might put it, have “dined at the top table” over hurdles, if not necessarily winning the top honours. How far does it depend on the horse’s long-term targets or breeding? By that I am referring to horses that are run over hurdles from a young age as a prelude to their switch to fences where they are expected to come into their own?

Donald McCain said last week that he hadn’t really schooled Peddlers Cross over fences yet, so clearly he is not being rushed. However, he did say that some of the things he has seen this horse do are ‘frightening’ and I think it is very clear just how special Donald McCain thinks he might be over fences. Is this a case of if he jumps well he will be very hard to beat? Or is there genuine competition that can make life tough for this horse?

I’ve been comparing the careers of the 2010 and 2011 Arkle winners, Sizing Europe and Captain Chris, to that of Peddlers Cross and he does strike me as more of the Sizing Europe mould. They both ran in a Champion Hurdle and, interestingly, both look versatile trip-wise in that Sizing Europe does stay 2m 4f, possibly even 3m, though apparently not quite as effective over the longer trip. The scary thing is that Peddlers Cross is some way ahead of Sizing Europe at this stage of his career in terms of the raw ability shown, and given the exploits of the latter at Cheltenham in the past two years, it does certainly give you the appetite to watch how Peddlers Cross manages to progress over the larger obstacles. Captain Chris shows similarities too, in the way that he stays 2½ miles and is a very strong stayer over the 2m trip.

There is talk of Captain Chris going up in trip and even trying the likes of a Gold Cup bid. I have heard Peddlers Cross talked about as a future Gold Cup horse and therefore he has the opportunity to be successful over a range of big races of different trips in the coming seasons. However, firstly he has to contend with novice chasing and there might be one or two others who have a say in whether he can win the Arkle this season.

As I said, the value is very much open to debate. 6/1 on a horse that genuinely might be something special looks fair, so I would not be put off, with the key thought behind that logic being that he is likely to shorten if he puts in an impressive chase debut.
He’ll answer our questions in his own time, but wouldn’t it be wonderful for racing if Ginger can look down on yet another outstanding achiever trained by the name McCain. It would be great for the sport and, however he progresses, it is a fantastic addition to what is shaping up to be an exciting chasing division.
Where do you see him going, firstly this season and then later in his career, and what do you see him achieving?

As always, thanks for your time.

-TopClass

 

Great write up.
I stand in a minority here but I've always said that he should be hurdling this season.
His battle with the Fly was momentous and I'm still not convinced he had a trouble free preparation - I know the same applied to all horses with last years poor weather but if it affected Peddlars a fraction more than it affected the Fly the half length or so difference can be easily explained.
I do think the novice chase ranks (2m) will be strong this year, I also think the hurdling (2m) division will be strong, but I do think this horse is a bit special and has everything it takes to win a champion hurdle.
If anyone is planning ante post bets then the Arkle is your only option IMO, the other novice chases at the festival don't ofer anywhere near the same as an Arkle win and I doubt he'll stay the RSA trip.
That said, I wouldn't dismiss a return to hurdles at some point during the season, plenty of decent horses have been tried over fences (Halo and Big Bucks spring to mind) and returned to hurdling quite quickly

 

If he just replicates his form over hurdles when going chasing then what is there that can live with him? Some of the shrewder punters amongst us will have taken 12's and 10's about PC for the Arkle as soon as he'd run in the Champion Hurdle last year. Roll on November 9th where he is due to vanquish Al Ferof in a beginners chase.

 

Great to see Peddlers in focus i think this horse is potentially a real star in the making. Only seen him in the flesh once at Kelso in February and he had to be booted along a bit after the last ( he had a slight cough just prior to this race) but he looked awsome to me in the paddock and i wasnt surprised to see him bang there in the Champion. We all know fences are a different ball game entirely but i see no reason he cant make a smooth transition hes proved he has the strength and more importantly he has speed too. Another positive in terms of the Arkle is the fact he obviously likes it round Cheltenham. For me 7s is about right available with BET365 and WH. I will be on him early for this, if you could tailor make a race for him it would be the Arkle.

 

Peddlers Cross will win the Arkle. I am nearly as confident about this as i am that Big Buck's will win the World Hurdle. There cannot possibly be a horse and a race that are so tailor made for one another. We all know that he has the speed for 2m at the very highest level, the stamina for 2m4f (at least) at the very highest level and promises to be an excellent jumper. He was always fluent over his hurdles and jumped 'like a stag' in his Point to Point win. He just screamed chaser to me when i saw him in the paddock at Newbury for the Fighting Fifth. I loved him before then but seeing him in the flesh got me really excited about him. I absolutely disagree that he should be hurdling this year. As Ginger said he has only been wasting time over hurdles and i am convinced that chasing is his game.

I was very nearly going to do the Fammy trick, and put a £5 on him every week for the Arkle. I decided against it in the end because i didn't see any reason why he should shorten up. I did however, think that the antepost prices were all wrong (and therefore should have backed him). He is now into 13/2 favourite from being about 11/1 on Betfair. I could not for the life of me understand why he and Al Ferof were virtually joint favourites for a while. Clearly i was not the only one that was thinking the same but i was probably the only one who didn't take advantage. I think the 7/1 is a fair price because i cannot see any reason why this horse cannot win the Arkle baring injury. He is without exception the horse that i am most looking forward to seeing this season.

One of the stronger trends at the Festival (not that i am trends man) is that the highest rated hurdler wins the Arkle. He is, and i fully expect him to strengthen that trend further. He is simply the fastest horse in the race and stays exceptionally well too and i am pretty sure he will be an excellent jumper. He is tailor made for the Arkle.

7/1 is great value because baring injuries i am convinced that he will win the Arkle and win it easily. He is very likely to hose up in a novice chase or two and his price will collapse. I think he'll be a very warm order come the Festival.

A horse, as you may have noticed, that i am very confident about. He is absolutely out of the very top drawer and i am sure that he will show everyone what he is capable of this season.

 

Share your view wholeheartedly Zenyatta

 

Zenyatta, I have done a variation of fammy's hurricane bet. every time I have a winning bet between the saturday after Cheltenham 2011 and Cheltenham 2012 I've been/will continue to put £10 on PC for the Arkle. Also done the same for First Lieutenant in tne RSA.

 

Love peddlers... Backed him for the Arkle already...

 

He hasnt really jumped a fence and people are willing to take 7-1 for a race that doesnt happen for 6 months?Am i missing something here?

 

I think it's worth the chance

 

This is really the crux of the debate, and both of your opinions bring it to light quite nicely. Those who realise he is a pretty special talent know that 7/1 might look huge. Those of you who know that its not always an easy transition from hurdles to fences, know that it might end up looking rather short. But is that not backing and laying for you, in a nutshell?

The yards confidence in him does re-assure me, though.

It's his oppopisition that I am interested in, there seems to be a lot of positive noises made about Sprinter Sacre, another who I hear people say 'will make a better chaser'.


On a side note, has anyone heard much on Solwhits progress, after his trainer said he would be switched to fences when missing the Long Walk at Cheltenham last season?

 

Argh the old ante-post debate.
If PC tansfers his hurdle form to fences and lines up in the Arkle he will be short, possibly odds on, however he must transfer that form, remain injury free, ignore longer novice chases, be prepared for all ground (been a while since a soft ground festival I know) ignore a rematch with Hurricane Fly and avoid illness/infection, whether 7s represents value is questionable....

 

I just find it incredibly difficult to believe that there aren't better 7-1 shots somewhere within the betting world.

 

the vast majority of my money is on at 12's and 10's. 7's has only been available for a couple of weeks. everything I've put on him has been money won from bets struck since cheltenham so for me it's a mixture of value at the bigger prices and faith at the shorter odds. we'll know on November 9 th who's worked the value side of it out correctly

 

Watch the Champion Hurdle and then watch the Supreme Novices Hurdle from the 2011 Festival.

Then ask yourself the question 'Will Sprinter Sacre be able to get past Peddlers Cross up the Cheltenham hill?'

To me it is an emphatic 'no'.

 

Peddler's Cross, now this is a proper animal... He must surely be one of, if not, the highest rated hurdler to go chasing for some time. Why do I rate this horse so highly? Very easy. Two words: Hurricane Fly. I make no secret of the fact that I consider that the Hurricane will become possibly the greatest hurdler we've seen. He blew away the competition in his remarkable campaign last season but the one horse who did give him a race, was Peddlers Cross.

I recall stating last season I felt their was no reason to send him chasing straight away. He's surely the best hurdler in Britain and there are a range of Grade One races at his mercy with the Hurricane racing mainly in Ireland. Another reason is that Donald McCain isn't alone in wishing to avoid the Hurricane with his charge, resulting in many other top hurdlers going novice chasing next year. It's fair to guess the novice chasers next year may well be above average so I don't think we can assume Peddlers Cross will be the standout in this new game.

His credentials as a chaser have been well touted on old 606 by FamousWise who may have told us, once or twice, about this horse winning his point to point with the proverbial 'head in his chest'! He's a large, scopey horse so seems the ideal type to go chasing with, but let's not forget many top hurdlers don't translate that form into chasing. Celestial Halo anyone?

For my money I'd have kept him hurdling for another year. He'll be competing in the top two mile chases with the likes of Sprinter Sacre, Al Ferof, First Lieutenant, Thousand Stars, Solwit etc And these ones all were very good hurdlers too, so even with small improvments from chasing I can't have Peddlers Cross as a banker for the Arkle just yet. Yes, his potential excites me very much going chasing but so do all of these other protaganists! The first few chases he competes in will tell us more and until then, I find it impossible to say whether his current price of 7s for the Arkle is value or not. Of course by then it may well be too late but there's enough reasons, for me, to wait until nearer the Arkle until I decide whom my idea of the winner shall be.

 

'I make no secret of the fact that I consider that the Hurricane will become possibly the greatest hurdler we've seen'

That's a hell of a shout.
For me to be even considered anywhere near Istabraq he'll need a minumum of three more festival wins, probably 4 given that his penalty kick 4th Champion hurdle was cruely denied by foot and mouth.
I don't remember seeing a horse getting anywhere near Istabraq at Cheltenham.
I do understand your high opinion of Hurricane Fly, but he'll need to repeat last March's exploits a few times to warrant such high praise IMO.