Under the Spotlight: 'Episode 1'- Quito De La Roque | Horse Racing

For those who are reading this concept for the first time today, this will be an ongoing series that runs throughout the entirity of the National Hunt season in the run up to the 2012 Cheltenham Festival. There will be one or two threads per week, where I will select a horse that I would like to hear the forum discuss. -Obviously everyone has different ideas about who should be discussed and the main protagonists and current household names are already pretty familar (Your Kautos, Denmans, Long Run etc etc), so I will be endeavouring to find the progressive types to challenge for the top honours come March, and to broaden our understanding and knowedge of the various profiles of different horses-all of various abilities.

That said, it will of course be appropriate in some cases to discuss the big names, but expect that a bit further down the line in the season.


I hope you enjoy it, and feel free to private message me regarding any feedback (positive or negative) you would like to add.

Under the Spotlight: Episode 1: Quito De La Roque​

I think even the slightest of glances at the formbook of 7 year-old Quito De La Roque since going chasing tells you that he has been a huge, huge improver over the larger obstacles for Colm Murphy.

A winner of 5 of his 6 starts over fences- his only defeat being a half length second behind Boston’s Angel, who has since won two Grade Ones and the second of which was none other than the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival- Quito De LA Roque throughly looks a chaser going the right way towards the top level. Certainly the way the race panned out that day suggested a reverse in form was possible (Quito was closing at the line), and of course since then Quito De La Roque won 4 straight chases, three of which were Grade Two events and the final at Punchestown which was a Grade One, so clearly the evidence suggests that the excellent second to Bostons Angel was on merit and perhaps the progressiveness of the horse might enable it to have improved past that one, should there be a rematch.

The early ante-post Cheltenham markets all offer odds for Quito De La Roque as a Gold Cup Contender, ranging between 16/1 and a best priced 25/1. Ultimately one question I would like answered in the feedback on this thread is how far does that represent value as an ante-post bet, and more importantly how accurately might it reflect his realistic chances of going close in probably the most prestigious chase in NH racing?

It does feel like there is a real generational shift now when we consider the Gold Cup. It is a race decorated and indeed dominated by the exploits of Denman, Kauto Star, and Imperial Commander in the last 5 years, before the victory of Long Run, remarkably just a 6 year old, signalled that the next chapter of Cheltenham Gold Cup history has begun. Denman and Kauto will be 12 year olds come March, and with Imperial Commander out for the season, this is a brand new scene in the Gold Cup and it almost demands that we have the progressive, younger chasers step into the limelight in an attempt to challenge the reigning champion, Long Run.

The thing that I personally like about Quito De La Roque is his versatility ground-wise and also his stamina- going on strongly and consistently battling at the end of 3m 1f. It is absolutely imperative when we talk about a Gold Cup horse that it can see out the trip, so this is a positive sign if he is to be campaigned towards the highest level at Cheltenham, particularly when we consider he won a 2m 6f hurdle on heavy ground and was certainly more of a staying hurdler who looked destined for chasing. However if we are talking about stamina being imperative, it would be utterly folly to not discuss how crucial jumping is. Quito has completed every single start of his career so far, though did look a little bit untidy under pressure at Aintree before battling bravely to get up close home. That might be his one chink in the armour but you have to say, the way he has progressed, the way he stays, and the way he battles, that if the jumping can be fine tuned then we will very much have a highest-level chaser on our hands to go in amongst what could well become the most exciting division of the Festival this year, as it looks very open and very ‘new’.

How do you all rate Colm Murphy as a trainer? He has only had 15 runners at Cheltenham, 9 of which were placed or better (3 winners). Does he have what it takes to match the likes of Nicholls, Henderson, and Mullins?

Surely the form tie with Boston’s Angel (having won the RSA) suggests Quito De La Roque is one of the best novice chasers of 2011- the question is how do you rate his form, and how much improvement would be required to become a genuine Gold Cup Contender? When you compare him at this stage of his career to the likes of Kauto Star, Denman, Best Mate, and Imperial Commander, just how similar a path is he taking, and how far behind their progression do we think he is at the moment? Is it possible to make that step up to the top table?

If he does not go the Gold Cup route, where else could we see Quito go this season?

My initial verdict:

Ante-Post bet at 25/1? Verdict: Yes, Stakes: Small (Price available at Ladbrokes and William Hill)

Looks very progressive, has bags of stamina, looks a natural chaser, and therefore deserves at least a chance and at least a small bit of consideration, even if ultimately you decide he might not be up to the level being talked about in the lead up to Cheltenham 2012.

Cheers for your time,

-TopClass

For a full index of all horses featured in this series

 

I agree with a lot of your points. I was very pleasantly surprised by the way that Quito De La Roque handled the quicker ground at Aintree this year, given that most of his previous form was on soft/heavy. His subsequent easy victory on good ground at Punchestown proved that his win at Aintree was no flash in the pan.
Even though the Gold Cup has been dominated in recent years by the likes of the seasoned Kauto and Denman, I still believe that a second season chaser is usually the one to be on in that race, as Long Run advertised last season. I think Quito De La Roque and Bostons Angel look to be the two horses who fit that profile for the season ahead, and we also know that both horses should be perfectly capable of handling "proper winter ground" in the meantime.

 

TopClass, he's a horse it's hard not to like. From Big Buck's Cadoudal Family-by Saint Des Saints- stamina and toughness will be his strong points, although he jumps OK.
The form lines with RSA winner, Boston's Angel, are not easy to assess. The RSA has had limited success whe it comes to projecting future stars, and QDLR was probably wise to avoid that difficult test which can 'sour' a horse.
Re. this season's Gold Cup, I look forward to seeing how QDLR progresses and how he and other chasers eg. Weapon's Amnesty fare against Long Run who may have had an advantage in meeting Kauto and Denman in their 'twilight years.'
Ante-post wise, I'm not a lover of NH bets six months in advance but I think 25/1 is fair value. I also think the horse should fear few horses on very soft ground, although he'll do well on any surface.
A fine prospect from a competent Irish trainer.

 

I think the most important thing about this horse is stated in the following quote by his trainer -

"08Apr11 Aintree ( 25 Gd ,RPR151 )

He is still such a big, backward, raw horse and we felt that the flat track here would suit him better than the undulations of Cheltenham. Physically there is still more to come, but we won´t get carried away yet. Time will tell if he can make it. We´ll let him do the talking, but he would have to improve for us to start talking about Gold Cups. - Colm Murphy, trainer"

That is to say that he is big, backwards and needs to improve. He certainly can improve but its going to need around 2 stones of improvement to be around the level of Long Run if you take into consideration the handicap mark he was given at the end of last season (152). If he improves for another summer on his back then its definitely possible that he not only could run in the Gold Cup but he could also be a very competitive entrant in such a race.

Given his running style (dour stayer) and the fact that the novice season went so well, I think the bookmakers are taking little chance with him and to put him at 25/1 seems about right (given he is the same price as Boston Angel) with doubts about how good his novice form is (I think he was given the race last time by QE fall) and whether he can improve markedly to take a seat at the top table.

I think he is one of the stronger second season chasers on the formbook but I think he has enough to do to make me wary of backing him antepost for the big race

 

I liked Quito De La Roque during the 2nd half of last term and thought he put up some fine performances in some of the ‘top table’ staying novice heats. However, it really is a very big step up from that level to ‘open’ championship class. The official ratings verify this point as he is 23 pounds behind Mr Henderson’s Long Run. To me in the CGC he is just likely to find half a dozen to good for him and I wouldn’t want get involved in backing him for that race at this stage.

 

I don't know much about the horse or jumpers of any kind for that matter. But if the horse is considered a possible star of the future, then i think 25-1 about the horse to fulfill expectations, is a bit too short for mine.

 

great thread - love this and will keep me going through the winter.

I like the horse, was surprised to see him handle the good ground so well at Aintree and he looks a proper stayer.
25/1 for Gold Cup gold is not a daft bet with the old guard getting on in years and I may have a little nibble at the 25s myself.

 

Excellent write up Toppy, very informative

I can only concur with the general consensus that Quito is a horse who ticks all the boxes you'd hope to see in a progressive staying chaser. He stays, he is a sound jumper and he handles all sorts of ground. That was the most surprising facet of his Aintree win on a very sound surface as this was expected to catch him out but didn't.

Regards the slight question mark made by his trainer in how suitable Cheltenham will be for him I'd have very little concerns in that respect. He has won at Punchestown and it is an undulating track I can testify to that! Also lest we forget that Mr Murphy voiced similar concerns to the better ground at Aintree and look how inconvenienced he was there! There can be little doubt this fellow's being aimed at the Gold Cup. Gigginstown House Stud own him so they will be hoping for another War of Attrition. He has a bit to improve for sure but he looks the sort capable of doing that. 25/1 is probably not outstanding value this early on though, for the cimple reason that the novice chasers last year are a formidable bunch.

As a postnote the third at Aintree Golan Way is one to look out for, he would have worried QdeLR big time but for a couple of jumping howlers.

 

Cheers for putting this together Toppy. For me he's going to pop up now and then and win decent races but who's to say Long Run has finished improving so, to play devils advocate, if LR improves 5lbs this boy will have to improve 2 stone and hope LR has an off day to win the Gold Cup. I just don't see how it can happen. Having said that winning the Gold Cup twice on the bounce almost never happens so the stats say that something will improve enough to beat the champ. For me Captain Chris could be the one if they take a leap of faith and step him up.... although the Champion Chase is at his mercy in my opinion. The RSA also has a habit of ruining promising horses. You can ask Willie Mullins all about that.

 

I couldn't really get excited about any of the staying novice chasers last season. They all finished in a heap in the RSA and the Irish horses seemed to keep beat each other month to month, appearing to be of a similar ability.

Beef says that the novice chasers were a "formidable bunch". Either they are all good or none of them are. I would go for the latter. To my eye there were no standouts, all the finishes were very close, with no single horse really stamping their authority on the division. For that reason i am far more inclined to conclude that they are all average. They all obviously have the scope to improve, but improve they must, and improve by a lot to get near to challenging Long Run.

If i were looking for a top chaser from last season's novices i'd be looking towards the shorter races. Captain Chris, Wishful Thinking, Noble Prince etc. I think this view is supported by the ratings which have this division a good few pounds above the staying novices. Quito De La Roque (159), Boston's Angel (152), Jessie's Dream (151) compared to Wishful Thinking (164), Captain Chris (160) and Noble Prince (160). What's more is that at least a couple of these have every chance of making up into a Gold Cup contender.

So for me 25/1 is no value at all. I'll put my neck on the line and say that all the staying novices from last season are not up to open championship class. They'll pick up a few decent races but none of them will be taking the one that counts, the Gold Cup.

 

Excellent start TopClass.

 

Some good discussion already here even at this early stage. The point that Rounders makes about Long Run possibly being able to improve further is an important one, especially as he is a relatively young chaser. He looked full of class last season visually, but at the same time as Tamerlo points out- victories over Kauto (twice) and Denman on paper are good, but actually he might not have been beating two horses that ran to their marks either. Obviously that's open to debate and I for one could not say for certain. My point is, that whilst he looked silky smooth at Kempton, Kauto was coming back for more before he hit the fence, the winning margin was false and then whilst the Gold Cup was a wonderful, wonderful race, the subsequent disappointments of Kauto and Denman hint that maybe Long Run didn't hit the lofty heights performance wise as was initially suggested. Again though, I'm just putting that forward as an angle, as opposed to arguing that it is right or wrong.

I understand Weapon's Amnesty has a big reputation and is expected to be a Gold Cup contender, and based on 2010 defeat of Long Run at Cheltenham would obviously be of some interest. There will be a thread on him at some point.



Zenyatta- I found your viewpoint interesting regarding no one 'stamping their class' on the novice division last season and in many ways have to agree, and the analogy of either 'they're all very good' or they are 'all average/good at best' is a very intriguing one. It would be fantastic if it was the former, but only time will tell.

Having said that, I think maybe we could suggest that there will always be that step up in class to make when you try and make the transition from a top novice into a champion contender, so potentially there is always a fair bit to find on the figures.
I get the impression though, even though I'm a NH amteur, that NH is very different to flat racing when it comes to improvement and horses being at their peak. Would it be fair to say that probably between 7-9 are a chasers best years on the whole? So for example, whereas on the flat, I could watch a horse like Goldikova run to about 128 at 3, and know pretty much for certain there is unlikely to be any major improvement at 4 upwards. Whereas in NH, you can definitely find the improvement with experience later on in a career so the likes of Quito De La Roque, now that they have put themselves in the frame at the top novice level, can give themselves a chance to build on it and find their feet in against the other top class seasoned chasers. What do you think?

A lot of you have followed NH for years- what contrasting examples have there been from previous generations where a top novice has been given the opportunity at 'the top table' in seasons following?

It would be interesting to see examples of novices who did stamp their class on the division to find out how they developed in comparison to other top novices who were very closely matched in that division before making the step up to thew highest level.

PS thanks for your feedback guys, hope everything is okay so far

 

very very good i will be an avid reader

 

PS thanks for your feedback guys, hope everything is okay so far ."
TopClass-top of the class. Both the idea and your contributions are indeed top class.(excuse the intended 'class' remarks)
One of the fascinating things about chasing is how a horse will adapt to fences- whatever he has achieved either on the Flat or over Hurdles.
Jumping certainly is "the name of the game," and I can't help admire an ordinary hurdler that goes over fences and jumps a top hurdler into the ground. For me, that's just one exciting aspect that Flat Racing can never offer.
Who knows what will happen over fences this year...Long Run didn't look that good against Weapon's Amnesty in their novice season so, if the latter has kept his abilty (never certain after injury), then we might be in for a real treat! Add Quito De La Roque and others into the equation.....Roll on the season proper!
Praise where praise is due (no fawning)..
Well done for all the work you are putting into this forum- and your in-depth comments."

 

If they all appear good then the most likely result is that they are all actually not very good. The very good horses are not normal and tend to stand out from the crowd. A very obvious example would be Denman who destroyed everything he faced as a novice before taking the RSA in convincing fashion. According to the comments in running he 'stormed home'. I don't think i have seen that used anywhere else! An example of how things go wrong is Cooldine, who absolutely hacked up in the RSA but then never recaptured the same form, let alone improve.

Kauto Star is a bit different because he never really had a novice campaign. he hacked up in a novice chase at Newbury on his first start for Nicholls. He was then beaten a short head at Exeter in the most bizarre race ever. He fell at the second last, was remounted and only just failed to get up. An astonishing performance to have that much in hand over his rivals. But he was subsequently found to have fractured a bone in his leg and didn't race as a novice again. He then won the Tingle Creek at 2m the next season before starting favourite in the Queen Mother, but fell at the 3rd. I always wonder what might have been had he not essentially wasted two years in this country. He could feasibly have won the GC at 6 in 2006. We will never know.

Looking back at past GC winners:

2010 - Imperial Commander was no superstar as a novice but was generally runninjg over 2m5f. Then won the Ryanair before stepping up to 3m.

2007/9 - Kauto Star as above.

2008 - Denman won his first novice chase over 2m2f but was always a thorough stayer.

2006 - War Of Attrition was 7th in the Arkle, 2nd in the Maghull at Aintree and then won at Punchestown, all over 2 miles. Also 2nd in the Supreme Novices as a hurdler.

2005 - Kicking King was 2nd in the Arkle, then 2nd in the Powers Gold Cup (2m4f) and then brought down when every chance at Punchestown in the 2mile novice chase. 2nd in the Supreme Novices.

2002/3/4 - Best Mate didn't run at Cheltenham or Aintree as a novice chaser (curiously ran over hurdles at Aintree though finishing 2nd, but i can't remeber why?!). He did win the November Novices Chase and the Scilly Isles. Also 2nd in the Supreme Novices as a hurdler. His first try at 3m was in the King George.

2000 - Looks Like Trouble won the RSA by a distance.

For the horses this century to have won the Gold Cup, Denman and Looks Like Trouble are the anomalies because they were the only stayers from the outset. It seems that coming 2nd in the Supreme Novices bodes very well, but they were all two milers who gradually stepped up in distance. Imperial Commander was slower to progress but won the Ryanair over 2m5f before taking the Gold Cup.

I think this backs up the argument that the Gold Cup winner needs to have a touch of class as well as being a thorough stayer. Therefore i stick to my previous statement that it is better to look to the Arkle and the Jewson for a potential GC winner than the RSA. We need a horse with the requisite speed to be competitive over shorter as a young horse that can also stay. The horses running in the staying races as young horses are probably just too slow, with a few (obvious, both Denman and Looks Like Trouble won the RSA very easily) exceptions.

PS. On the subject of comments in running, just looking through Kauto's form and he got the comment 'magnificent' after his 2009 King George romp. I haven't see that anywhere else either.

 

Zen, I agree with your viewpoint and probably didn't make my point about the novices well before as I was including those (who have yet to try a staying trip) three you mentioned: Captain Chris, Noble Prince and Wishful Thinking. These would also be my pick of the novices and there are reasons to think they could stay further than the trips they were campaigned at last year. (They were in my subconscience when I remarked the novices were a very good bunch last year!) Whilst they have stamina to prove I'd throw those 3 into the mix as contenders for the Gold Cup. Add Time for Rupert into the category (his Cheltenham run was too bad to be true) and I think a good number of novices will come up through the ranks. I'm not disagreeing that you may be right about the general form of the RSA in time!

Toppy, it obviously depends on the horse but a lot of top chasers have shown they can maintain Grade One winning form well into their teens like Moscow Flyer and Monet's Garden. I think a lot of these chasers can still prove their abilities up to 11 and most peak probably around 8 or 9 years old. I'm sure some of the stats lads would back up that championship races at Cheltenham are usually won by horses in this age range. Moscow Flyer's regaining his Champion Chase at the age of 11 was a memory that won't fade for me, but MF was a horse very much the exception rather than the rule!

Regards novices stepping up to the top table the very next season the Queen Mother is an obvious example where often the previous seasons Arkle winner follows up.

On a slighty different stint to this I'm off the opinion Long Run won't regain his Gold Cup next year as I believe one of last seasons novices or Weapons Amensty (a novice from two years back but out injured all last season) will take it.

EDIT: Zenyatta: Best Mates novice season at Cheltenham was cancelled due to Foot & Mouth

 

Beefy, First Lieutenant won the Neptune last year. He made a very promising chase debut in Ireland on Sunday. He's staying in the novice ranks this year. RSA is the target.

 

Whoops, quite correct you are! Just as well as this at least delays Gigginstown House Stud (owners) the problem of keeping FL and Quito de la Roque apart in the big staying chases for a year at least!

Weapon's Amensty was the horse (in the same ownership) I was getting confused with.... So they WILL have the dilemma of keeping QDLR and Weapon's Amensty apart in the big staying chases...

 

This is making fascinating reading well done TC.

Certainly wouldnt want to be taking 25/1 about Quito De La Roque in fact i wouldnt play at double those odds unless Cheltenham was an absolute bog. Nice type but looks an out an out "dour" stayer and you have to have a bit more about you than just stamina to win a GC...for me he may be short of a bit class speed and versatility.

The Boston Angel race at Leopardstown in heavy ground where he ran on passing i think 3 horses dieing on their feet in the last 100yards suggest if the going had been any better than heavy he would have been a well beaten horse. In fact i think he may have been 5th beaten maybe 15-20 length

 

That would make sense. I was forgetting that!