Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 7th. January 2020

Tuesday's Meetings

Lingfield Park
N/H 7 Races 12:45-3:45p.m.
Taunton
N/H 6 Races 1:30-4:00p.m.
Southwell(E)
A/W 7 Races 4:15-7:15p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Seven Clans 15/2 - Southwell 4.15

Ran a cracker on penultimate start here and is still feasibly treated due to the horses huge inconsistency in form. Tends to throw in a wobbly before a good run and then rinse repeat. I am hoping after his no show lto that he can get his head back to the front here for the Tutty clan.

Coolagh Magic 20/1 - Southwell 5.45

Has been in reasonable form during the past Summer before his last 3 runs, which didn't offer much encouragement. The horse has dropped to a winning mark now once more and also to a track 1 of his 2 wins came on. It was also January last year when he scored decisively at Newcastle over 6 furlongs before then following up over 5 furlongs here shortly after. A hike in the weights followed and he has ran with some credit thereafter over a range of trips from 5 to 7 furlongs. He had 1 run over the mile lto at Newcastle and didn't flatter but I'm interested that they stick to the same trip here returning to Southwell. The market seems about right and my main hope for this horse is if he can take the running on and hopefully find the zest he once had for it and stick to the task down the home straight. We shall speculate to accumulate

 

Thanks for posting your selections. Will have a look at both.

 

Taunton 2:30 Zizaneur

Probably needed comeback run after a break but seems to have untapped potential for this game if you look at first two runs for Philip Hobbs. Stable in really good form and often does well at this track.

 

Morning

3.30 Taunton-Buck Dancing

Each Way @ 11-1 [Bet 365]

Decent enough odds for a hunter chaser with these form figures

 

Needs to improve by around two stone to have a chance of winning this. Aged 11. This is not a young point to pointer on the up, its a horse with a lot of form in the book that has been well placed.
Best of luck.

 

I like Bishops Road in this. The form of his Cheltenham win 8 month ago is eyecatching and proved his wellbeing recently. Zac Baker is a decent pilot in hunters chases.

 

I note that the Tizzards have Ultragold lining up in that Hunter Chase at Taunton. His target will surely be the Foxhunters at Aintree. Does he have to just run in a couple of hunter chases to qualify or does he have to win one? If it’s the latter I’d expect him to be at least trying today.

 

Last year's conditions were these:

"For five-year-olds & upwards which since October 1, 2013, & before March 2, 2016, have been placed first or second on two occasions in a hunters' chase in Great Britain or Ireland or have won two Open chases at Point-to-Point Meetings (i.e. Gentlemens, Ladies or Mixed Open Races) in Great Britain or Ireland or have won one Open steeple chase at a Point-to-Point Meeting in Great Britain or Ireland and have been placed first or second in a hunters' steeple chase."

I keep waiting for Caryto Des Brosses very quiet.

 

Lingfield

12.45 River Tyne 9/2

Taunton

15,00 Prudhomme 5/1

 

Another small trainer in Ireland throwing in the towel. John Nicholson has reluctantly ended his training career due to a shortage of staff.' I cant get the staff, there are a couple of big yards near me and I just cant compete with them'. Lean times ahead if things dont change soon.

 

3.00 Taunton Prudhomme 5/1

Not normally a track I bet at but this fellow looks interesting. He was 2/7 Fav at Ffos Las last time when very disappointing. The jockey said to the Stewards that the Gelding had breathing problems that day and I note that Prudhomme has had wind surgery since that November race. Only a young horse he was improving prior to that and winners have come from his successful Hurdling debut. Back in action now he could be on a decent mark of 125 in his Handicap debut. Trainer has won with 3 of his last nine runners and 2 from his last six. The selection faces older and more exposed opponents today and remains of interest at 5/1 compared to his penalty kick miss at 2/7 last time. I thought he was worth a go today.

 

Lingfield 1.45 Granitic

- stable has had 6 horses in the money from 19 runs in handicap chases at Lingfield over the last 5 seasons which doesn't look bad

- yards outsiders have been running well recently (several placed, 1 yesterday)

- going should suit

Interesting each way chance I think

 

The one I’m interested in today too. However I can’t go backing it first time after op and with Chester on. I hope he runs well as I thought he was impressive back in the autumn.

 

Yes, there are question marks but with 5/1 odds you are always looking at negatives as well.

Colonel Custard seems well backed but represents no value to me, while Speredek is a market positive but looks very exposed as a 9YO. No doubt the "Thinkers" will be of a mind that he is better treated over hurdles and the first time hood may help but the only two horses in the field with a Timeform "p" (Potential improvement) are Prudhomme and Earth Moor. Earth Moor was tipped on ATR's preview but he is a massive drifter from 4/1 out to 10/1 and after a 441 day absence you would be concerned by the walk in the market.

I expect a good run from Prudhomme but you could never be mega confident on 5/1 shots.

 

Do you think he should be a 5/1 shot in the race? I’d have him at similar prices as Flashing Glance, Earth Moor and Liberty Bella, so I thought he should be closer to 7s than 5s given the question marks.

It’s an intriguing race and it doesn’t surprise me that the more exposed ones are being backed, it could easily be a race that falls apart. EW betting on the top two has probably caused their contraction of price rather than pure out win expectations.

 

Taunton 3.00 Speredek

Interesting back over hurdles. On old form should have a sound chance. Stable does well at this track.

 

The way I looked at it was that Prudhomme would be starting shorter if we took away his last run. Coming here having won a hurdle race well and making his debut in a handicap, I am sure he would have appealed as a sort with improvement in a largely stagnant affair. I would see a win play as the better option in these circumstances. I reckon 7/1 would be too big myself. If he does win today then future value looks unlikely so I chose to play today.

 

Another shocking ride by Chester. Outside inside everywhere and knowhere

 

afternoon fellas! hope,youre well..

taunton,3 30:

well,captain cattistock is the obvious one here,and much less exposed than most,so definitely respected,but the fly in the ointment could be WISHING AND HOPING.was very useful,when with alan king,and could be a real force,if taking to hunter chasing.also has a low mileage for his age.big shout for a yard that enjoys plenty of success in this sphere.