Hello all, Pontefract 2.30 - A tight handicap with plenty of winners lining up for the first Nursery of the season, with some runners on attractive marks. The three that look most interesting for me are - Maltese Ah, a maiden who has raced three times, showing up well in all efforts in maiden company and now races off 68 on handicap debut. I think this step back to 6 furlongs is important and I think she is going to run well in this race. The draw isn't great and that tempers enthuisasm. Seven Year Itch could be very well handicapped, she won a seller on her second run beating a weak field in the process. The handicapper took the view that she beat a woeful field and rated her a lowly 55, which means she carries bottomweight in this handicap. I think she could be a fair bit better than her mark but I do worry that she could also be very moderate too. Aquasulis is the one that interests me the most, she is a horse that is beginning to look exposed after running 7 times already this season, but to me the handicapper has got her mark wrong. She has been running in claimers and sellers and she managed to win her penultimate start, beating a fair field with some guts. She then ran a big race in a Conditions race over the minimum trip, which looked a bit too sharp, she managed to finish second to a very useful sort and that form probably makes her a very underrated horse here in handicap company. She still seems to be improving and any improvement would surely see her win this race. Aquasulis is the bet @ 9/2 BOG (I think it will drift) 1pt win Southwell 6.40 - Professor Tim/Samba Night - I think the two horses in this race that fit the bill on pedigree are Professor Tim and Samba Night. The former is by Verglas who has had winners on the surface and is likely to come on for its debut effort. Samba Night is by first season sire Dark Angel so I am less sure about the possibility of going well on the surface, but I think this Fretwell horse is very interesting in what is a very weak maiden. The horse is bred to win over this trip and I think it will go close, and if they back it I think it will win. 25/1 and 4/1 BOG - 1pt each win Southwell 7.10 - Dapper's Dancer - A very weak race and I nominate this one purely because I think the horse has more to show than we saw on its debut. I expect the horse to come on for its debut and I think it could run a big race at big odds. Not sure any will enjoy the trip or the ground and I think Nannerl is beatable on this surface. 12/1 EW 0.5pt Good luck all, and good luck to Danbo
Morning all. Off to Sunny Southwell tonight to watch Dapper Race. Look out for me on TV in the parade ring! Im the tall goofy looking bloke!! Unfortunately Danbo isnt going to be able to make it this evening but will have a jar for him on course! Interesting you have tipped her up Nass!! I know there were no ill effects of her first 'run' but not heard anything good or bad yet on her chances. Will speak to D O'M before the race and contact Danbo if he's around with any info. Cheers
Don, have 2 for me, sorry i wont make it but im sure you will send anything on Spoke to chris yesterday and confirmed what don said, she is fine and no worries, she was entered for this race before she ran at catterick so dont be fooled by the RP comments. positive booking of jockey who knows the horse. just text don who will up date me with any news but i cant put it up here as i cant get on from home hopefully wayward or GDC will watch the first race DD is reported to be working all over manatuna Have a great night Don, blow me a kiss from the winners enclosure Stay Frosty
Good luck and enjoy the best racecourse in the world the don. Also do you train Grand Crus then? (tall and goofy?) Get some pictures of Dapper in the ring for the forum
One I like the look of today is from the highwayman. Je Suis Un Rockstar, e/w at 16-1 in the 3.30 at Ponte. Consistant performer and claimer taking off 3. Would be far more confident if he had another horse in the race at 3s or 4s but cant have it all.
I wish I did Nass!! Have got some photos from Catterick (lovely little course btw) but no idea how to upload them on here!! Cheer Danbo, will do mate. Im very keen on the jockey booking too.
fwiw here are my other fancies for Southwell Valley Tiger - got course form and sire has some good Southwell winners Golden Creek - another with course form and whilst top weight in claimer I think it has a good chance Steel City Boy - about time he struck again and I actually think the outside draw could be ok for him here. They came stands side last time out if I recall. Light The City - quirky but on a good mark and likes the course
Morning, people. Nothing for me re today’s racing as it looks Woeful with a capital ‘W’. I know that the 5/1 winner of a bad race pays the same as the 5/1 winner of a good one but really these 4 cards are so uninspiring. Good luck though if you do wager.
Don, I meant to say that it’s woeful ‘with the exception of Dapper’s Dancer’. I wouldn’t go as far as to say that this moniker is a lovely name for a filly but equally it’s not a bad one and is better than most. I see, meanwhile, that Amy Ryan rides the favourite in Dapper’s race. Incidentally although the meeting on Southwell Sands is most deffo a ‘no bet’ one for me if someone held a gun to my head, which I’m sure that no-one would ever want to do, and asked me for a tip then I’d plump for Rhyton in the ‘lucky last’.
Forgot i had this !!!!!!!!!!! Nass sent me it ages ago i think WWW.FlatRacingProfiles.COM © Summum Bonum Limited 2009 WWW.GEEGEEZ.CO.UK SOUTHWELL SOUTHWELL 5f Fibr - Any Position Going: All Weather Years: 2003-2008 Maximum Price: 20/1 5f Summary: Although not directly profitable, the lowest stalls win far more often they are statistically entitled to, and focus should be here. Supporting this is the fact that the highest three stalls win far less often than expected (19 against 32), and incur a sizeable level stakes loss (-£182.75). There seems to be a sweet spot of boxes from ‘high minus four’ to ‘high minus seven’. Analysis by Low Drawn Horses Stall Wins-Runs Expected +/- (£) 1 19 - 115 11.49 2.15 2 14 - 116 11.64 -39.56 3 17 - 121 12.03 -1.12 4 13 - 117 11.59 -26.88 5 17 - 113 11.50 -7.27 6 14 - 118 11.43 -19.34 7 13 - 106 9.68 24.33 8 9 - 94 8.50 -16.50 9 7 - 86 7.42 -33.75 10 2 - 75 6.18 -43.00 11 4 - 54 4.18 -5.00 12 3 - 48 3.56 -26.50 13 3 - 34 2.42 -4.00 14 1 - 19 1.31 -11.50 15 0 - 10 0.64 -10.00 16 1 - 6 0.38 9.00 Analysis by High Drawn Horses Stall Wins-Runs Expected +/- (£) H- 0 8 - 111 11.22 -55.25 H- 1 6 - 107 10.74 -54.50 H- 2 5 - 99 10.21 -73.00 H- 3 16 - 116 11.71 12.58 H- 4 15 - 119 11.89 -20.44 H- 5 21 - 113 10.94 51.88 H- 6 13 - 103 9.52 0.98 H- 7 11 - 104 9.32 -41.42 H- 8 13 - 94 8.17 -6.02 H- 9 11 - 78 6.49 3.25 H-10 7 - 63 4.88 -10.50 H-11 5 - 45 3.35 -2.00 H-12 2 - 38 2.71 -22.50 H-13 3 - 27 1.83 2.00 H-14 0 - 9 0.58 -9.00 H-15 1 - 6 0.38 15.00
he defo sent me this (brings back memory of oldest ) Southwell - The only track of its kind and as such suits course performers. Low draw is statistically best but I am not put off with a high draw on the straight course, whilst on the round I want a horse to get the rail. I like horses who can go with the pace due to the kickback effect but hold up horses can do well if they are brave. I like Captain Rio's on the surface but many US dirt pedigrees do well too. Watch the first race of the day to see how bad the kickback is, because its very variable, if its bad then hold up horses can run badly.
Good luck with DD Dan... Been given two pieces of info today 4:00 Ponty - Dark Promise been punted in from an early price of 9/4 and is strongly fancied here 5:15 Wolvo - Meia Noite is better than she showed lto and has good e/w chance at 8/1 Good Luck and oh it's my B'day today as well
