Tuesday's Meetings Yarmouth Flat 7 Races 1:40-5:05p.m. Glorious Goodwood Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:15p.m. Beverley Flat 7 Races 2:05-5:30p.m. Galway Festival(E) Mixed 7 Races 5:20-8:40p.m. Worcester(E) N/H 7 Races 5:35-8:50p.m. Perth(E) N/H 7 Races 5:45-9:00p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
Lucky 15 Beverley 420 seductive moment 11/10 Goodwood 225 pina tubo 11/8 300 hey gaman 3s 515 nkosikavi 5s
I really liked the way MYSTERY POWER won the Superlative and I think that form has been undervalued by the assessors and bookmakers. The conditions of the Vintage are slightly unfair in that he now has tom give 3lbs to a Royal Ascot winner! Still, at 8/1 he is too big for me to pass up. I am also going to take some of the 25/1 on offer for the 2000 guineas as if he wins this today giving weight he will surely go favourite at low single figures.
Glorious Goodwood and the Galway Festival yet a mere half dozen posts come lunchtime. The excitement of the "fast horses" huh. The other (better) half is at Galway today and this is what I have given her to back; Turnpike Trip Jack Dillinger ew (Zero Ten will win but too short) Azila Mudlahhim Onlyhuman Danis Boy (NAP) Elegant Drama ew Fingers crossed she comes out even.
1.50 SOTO SIZZLER goes well at Goodwood - has Oisin on board, will go well. FAYEZ good each way bet at 28/1 2.25 The most exciting 2 year old of the season - I'm in the PINATUBO camp 3.00 very competitive - I'm leaning towards ZAAKI but wary of SPACE TRAVELLER and also wonder if this could finally be the day for SUEDOIS 3.35 STRADIVARIUS....hopeful
what is so great about today (Stradivarius) and Enable on Saturday is that these are horses that have kept going for such a long time, which is usually the argument given as to why NH racing is so popular. So yes I am very excited about the racing today!
240 bev I dont think the bookies are giving chant much respect for his 3 places out of 4 at track and distance . 25s ew interesting booking aswell
1:50 - Johnny Drama @ 8/1 2:25 - Pinatubo @ 11/8 3:00 - Hey Gaman @ 11/4 3:35 - Cross Counter @ 3/1 4:10 - Lost In Time @ 13/2 4:45 - Lord Riddiford @ 8/1 5:15 - Clara Peeters @ 6/1 These would be my Goodwood picks... Good luck if your playing today...
The Vintage Stakes looks a good renewal and there are interesting angles into the race. The first point to strike me is that Aidan O'Brien sends Lope Y Fernandez for a rematch with Pinatubo. On the face of it he has a lot to make up with the Godolphin runner but he may have progressed since then. Described as a "Big Baby" by his trainer Lope Y Fernandez looked a good prospect on debut even if allowing for the fact it wasn't a great race he won. There should be more to come and perhaps any ease in the ground may help him compared to Pinatubo. Pinatubo fairly scorched home in the Chesham after appearing ill at ease in the Woodcote at Epsom. It was a track record for juvenile's at Royal Ascot and it may be that it suited the Godolphin horse better. Goodwood may not be Pinatubo's ideal track and with the ground not as fast today he is short enough, particularly with the Godolphin horses sometimes running below expectations on occasion eg Summer Romance last week. I will leave Pinatubo today. Mystery Power has a penalty, which seems ridiculous in a race where we want to ascertain which colt is best, I believe they should all carry the same weight. Quite why horses are penalised for winning a particular level if race is pointless in my opinion. The Hannons have had success in this race in the past but less so since junior took over. There was some speculation in the media that the form of the Superlative might not hold up but I cannot agree that Mystery Power has been underrated because he is officially 2 lbs superior to Pinatubo on official ratings and is ahead of him on other ratings as well, for example the Racing Post have him three pounds ahead of Pinatubo, therefore levels at the weights today. Unbeaten, he is tempting at the comparative odds, with Pinatubo priced as the second coming today, and for the Guineas, despite only winning at Listed level so far. Visinari was quickly near the top of the ratings after his winning debut. Mark Johnston blamed himself for running the colt at 6F when he had suspected that he might need 7F. He has his trip now but how good is his form? A lot may depend on Guildsman, who ran in the Coventry and the July Stakes. He went close at Royal Ascot but was behind Visinari last time. I am not a big fan of how Archie Watson brings his 2YO's forward and some seem to fail to progress, or even go backwards. Not sure Guildsman ran to his Coventry form in the July Stakes and am 11 lbs lower rated rival only a length behind him supports that notion. High Taylor and Simon Rowlands both tip up Visinari today but at 3/1 I think he is short enough for a horse still living on a striking debut win for now, Perhaps this is the day he proves his star potential but I don't see any value myself at the odds in a race where another horse has similar hype and expectation behind him. There was a lot of confidence behind Clive Cox's Positive on debut and he duly hosed up. Only a Salisbury maiden but he won 5 lengths and there has been a winner from the race. A huge step up but if it gets soft a few will have their speed blunted and you never know. The rains have come and the going will be all important. The Racing Post has 1 lb covering four runners, so that's tight. On the betting that closeness is not reflected with 65% of the book covered by just Pinatubo and Visinari, which means it's roughly 1/2 that one of them will win. Interesting that Aidan relies on Lope Y Fernandez here, I feel that Armory seems Aidan's best prospect because he is taking the Tyros, Futurity path to what will likely lead to the Dewhurst. I have backed Lope Y Fernandez for the 2000 Guineas at 33/1 and Armory at 25/1, so I hope the former can get back into winning form today. I was disappointed by him in the Chesham though because he lacked the pace of Pinatubo that day and it has to be a concern. 11/2 Lope Y Fernandez is not floating my boat and the 3 lb penalty for Mystery Power makes life tough when considering that he faces the Guineas favourite and a horse with a big reputation in Visinari today. In the circumstances I am going to stake low on Positive at 12/1. His debut could not be faulted and the trainer bringing him here is surely a sign of belief in the Dutch Art colt. Clive Cox is 9/38 this past fortnight for a 24% strike rate and although Positive needs to step up he is almost certain to improve and the question is how much? At 12/1 it won't cost much to play. 2.25 Good Positive 12/1
I had a mare at Galway yesterday so best avoid these... 6.25 Mythic 14/1 ew 7.05 Rita Levi 7/1 ew 7.40 Saltonsall 7/1 ew
Form alone means very little in 2yo races. They all grow at different rates, some not evenly, and a month can make so much difference. Unless it is possible to see the horses the last time they ran and compare them to how they look now, the form can be very misleading. Factor in a change of ground as well and it becomes a minefield. Sometimes it is so obvious that a beaten horse is so immature and has run like a big baby, green as grass, with tons of scope, whilst the winner has little/no scope and won't have a prayer the next time they meet. The clock doesn't lie but, unless you have all the factors to hand that affected the time (and there are many) it can be misleading. Not having seen any of these I wouldn't be betting on any of them.
Oh well second with Positive but it was a one horse race with Pinatubo. I would imagine he will be 3/1 for the Guineas after that win. Lope Y Fernandez needs to come on a lot next season to be a player but the Cox horse has done well on his second start. Mark Johnston's Visinari looked like a plodder at the front today and his hype bubble has burst, Not the first and won't be the last Johnston horse to do that. No real excuses for Mystery Power, the notion that he was 2 lbs better than Pinatubo looked way off the mark today. Pinatubo, who can stop him now?
Some 4/1 on Pinatubo for the Guineas but Paddy Power only go 9/4. I was offered 12/1 after he won at Ascot but turned it down. Sort of regretting that now but 9/4 is too short for a race so far away.
