ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES (Group One) 3.45 BORN TO SEA Having watched him in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket you'd have said he simply wasn't upto this level. However, there was so much more to like about his 5th in the Irish 2000 equivalent that it was hard not to take any other horse out of the race but him. He had been giving John Oxx and Jonny Murtagh a headache as he was so keen, meaning he weakened well out of it at Newmarket. I also think he massively needed the run and the ground was against him after his lay-off from injury. He clearly showed progress last time out when finishing like a steam train having been settled and patiently ridden by Pat Smullen. Ascots stiff finish ought to play right into his hands this time if Murtagh can swtich him off early and I can see him nabbing this late on. Murtagh said in the press this week that they do see him as a Group 1 horse. I do think he'll be at 10f before the season is out though. "Born To Sea ran a bit keen at Newmarket but he settled better the last day and I think he can step up again." He added: "He's a horse I've always liked. We view him as a Group One horse and I think Ascot could be the ideal track for him. "He finished off really well (at the Curragh), but if he had run keen there we might never have got him back. Pat (Smullen) had to drop him in and he was very happy with him, he finished off really well so he is relaxing more now. "The hood really helps him, the fizz has gone out of him. He has great energy, but after two races he'll be much more relaxed." COVENTRY STAKES (Group One) 4.25: What a race this is. It is a very difficult one to disect but I have attempted it. I have made a decision on which handful of runners are markedly above average and which ones I think will take a significant step forward in this race. It is hard to see Sir Prancealot, Dawn Approach, Cristoforo Columbo not going close. I think all of them are markedly above average colts for this time of year. If anything, it has been the Aiden O'Brien runners who have been better for the experience this year and that tilts the balance in his favour, having won 7/2 on debut and put the field to bed very well, and with just the one run he has all sorts of potential. Sir Prancealot looks very buzzy to me and I think he might struggle with the stiff Ascot finish- it was only the fact that he had a troubled passage that Hughes managed to restrain him last time. He could easily get caught in the final furlong and I didn't think his Bath win was all that impressive. I also struggle to see what he beat at Sandown and to be truthful, they went such a clip that it probably exaggerated his winning distance, though the turn of foot was indeed impressive. Dawn Approach is as game as they come but sooner or later this horse is heading up in trip and I think somewhere along the line in this race he will get slightly outpaced by some electric 2 year old. However.. My attentions turn back closer to home and I'm being bold by picking a horse ridden by Michael Hills (he doesn't inspire me if the horse is held up!), and chancing my arm on a Brian Meehan improver. ENGLISHMAN 10/1 beat no fewer than 5 subsequent winners, one of which won an Irish listed race very easily (CAY VERDE). PREMIER STEPS also went on to beat a well fancied Richard Hannon juvenile at Ascot, SIGN OF THE ZODIAC went on to win at Bath and BUNGLEINTHEJUNGLE went on to beat JUBILEE BRIG (who was an easy Kemtpon winner and deemed good enough to run in this very race!) He also beat Smoothtalkinrascal into 2nd, a Brian Meehan horse who won a Leicester maiden wth minimum fuss in front of FORRAY, who then went and won his own maiden by 3 lengths for Ed McMahon. Now I see this as significant because Smoothtalkinrascal, clearly a talented Brian Meehan runner, who beat subsequent winner Forray so easily, is not in this race- he runs later on in the Windsor Castle. Instead, Meehan sends the once raced KING DRAGON 40/1. Meehans horses are reknowned for improving from first to second run and if he rates this horse higher than Smoothtalkinrascal, who was a very good 2nd to my selection above Englishman, then he rates a knocking e/w bet with significant improvement expected. He was a hands and heels educated 3rd in what looked a fairly warm Newmarket race on paper and I think given time that is a race that will work out okay. It's a huge price and if you can find a bookie doing some good place offers, I think it looks very interesting.
Amongst others, firstly I hope Frankel runs to his best and that they relax him off the pace this year, and that he comes through safe and sound before trying 10f in a few weeks time. In the 5.00 Ascot stakes over a marathon trip, I think it pays to follow the NH trainers and I think the Pipes have got one tailor-made in ASHBRITTLE, who ran respectably in the Cesarewitch and in a heavy-ground Saint Cloud listed race. It is very interesting that the Pipes have kept him fresh now since March and you have to wonder if this has been set out as a major target for him here. Paul Hanagan is booked and the 9/1 on offer in places looks a tempting each-way propositon I think? The 3.05 Kings Stand stakes is a very tricky affair with Bated Breath clearly a better 6f horse as reflected in his price. Sole Power ought to go well as ever and Prohibit is always a danger. However, it is a young, improving Robert Cowell horse who stands out from the British team and I fancy Frankie Dettori to go very close on SPIRIT QUARTZ 25/1 e.w because Cowell is very shrewd with his sprinters and I think the booking of Frankie reveals just what regard he holds this exciting prospect in. It is a huge step up, but he was not beaten far by Bated Breath earlier in May and the stiff finish here can really play to his strengths.
Top notch as always Toppy. Although I really fancy Dawn Approach for the Coventry, I really like the insight you have made in relation to King Dragon and after watching his replay he certainly looked to be giving very tender handling on what was an extremely promising debut under hands and heels riding. Obviously he's going to have to be extremely talented to land this but he certainly looks to have a lot of ability and on the evidence of his debut effort coupled with your insight I'm definitely having a decent enough bet at 50s, and I recommend everyone on the form checking out his debut and doing the same. I'd suggest everyone have a look at King Dragon's debut after reading TopClass's post and you'll see how huge a price he really is. http://www.chroma.premiumtv.co.uk/streaming/watch/RacingUKFlashVOD/partnerId_166/videoFileId_1155321
5.00 Ascot Western Pearl 16/1 Really like the look of William Knight's relatively unexposed 5 year old who I think looks very nicely handicapped off a mark of 90. Despite never racing beyond 1m7.5f in his career to date and landing on a maiden so far in his career, I think the significant step up in trip to 2m4f looks sure to suit and I definitely envisage a big run is on the cards. Raced once as a 2 year old, Western Pearl landed a maiden at Ffos Las on his 4th career start as a 3 year old in fine style over 1m4f and he followed that up with a good handicap debut off a mark of 85. He was stepped straight into Listed Class and upped to 1m6f on his next start when running an excellent 3rd behind Harris Tweed on soft ground at Newmarket and it was a really good effort given the first two home were rated 112 and 100 respectively. His next two starts in Listed contests were decent if not spectacular but he put in a tremendous effort in Listed handicap after this off a mark of 92 at York that reads extremely well. Over the 1m6f trip, Western Pearl stayed on very well from midfield and he was never nearer than at the finish when going down by 3.5L in a race that suited those who were prominent as the first two home occupied those positions the whole way round. The form of that race is extremely strong with the winner Tactician following that effort up with a 2nd in the Ebor off a 6lb higher mark whilst the 2nd Fox Hunt finished 0.5L beaten in a Group 2 behind Opinion Poll on his next start and landed a couple of Group 3s subsequently before he tragically lost his life at Meydan earlier this year. The form of that race has been franked by several horses in behind and it really showed that a step up in trip would suit. After this Western Pearl competed in three more Listed contests and he ran respectably in two whilst one was an absolute no show before he went over to France where he again ran in Listed contests. The first he was stepped up to 1m7.5f, the longest distance in his career to date, as he finished a respectable 7.5L beaten 5th. Although I haven't seen a video of this race, he was sent of an 87/1 shot and the RP comments say he stayed on well under pressure in the straight without getting to the leaders on the heavy ground so it looks a good effort. On his final start as a 4 year old, Western Pearl put up a cracking effort to finish a 3/4L beaten 3rd at Fontainebleau in a Listed contest last November on very soft ground. The form of that race looks very strong in the context of todays race with the 2nd Molly Malone finishing behind the talented Allied Powers in a Group 3 on her next start and she followed that up with an excellent 1.5L beaten 3rd in a Group 3 at Haydock earlier this month. Western Pearl has shaped as if he has needed his two reappearance runs this year, the latest an encouraging effort over an inadequate 1m4f trip 10 days ago at Haydock and I definitely think he will strip fitter for those efforts. Given Western Pearl has to race off a mark of 90 in a handicap, his efforts in the Listed contests coupled with his excellent 3rd in a race that is working out very well off a 2lb higher mark make me think he is definitely well handicapped. Although there is an obvious risk he may not stay the 2m4f trip, he has definitely shaped as if he would. Moreover, his half sister won over 2m as a 3 year old so breeding also suggests that the step up in trip is likely to suit. Frankie Dettori takes the ride tomorrow on William Knight's 5 year old and he is an extremely eye catching jockey booking. Frankie has had two rides for Knight in the past 5 year, once in 2010 and the other in 2008 so its definitely clear in my eyes that Knight really fancies a very big showing. The ground tomorrow shouldn't be any issue as he has form on all types although I wouldn't want it to get too soft just in case the trip is on the cusp of his stamina limit. I think its pretty much guaranteed that most of this field have a couple of lbs in hand from the handicapper and although I am convinced Western Pearl is definitely better than his current mark he may run into a couple who have even more in hand which is an obvious risk, but that is to be expected in such a competitive field. With form in the book reading very well in my eyes and the step up in trip definitely entitled to bring out significant improvement, I'm confident of a big showing from William Knight's sole runner at Royal Ascot tomorrow. Other bets for Royal Ascot which I wont have time to do write ups for 3.05 Little Bridge 14/1 4.25 Dawn Approach 9/2 & King Dragon 50/1 (the latter courtesy of TopClass) 5.35 Ajmany 18/1
7/2 being offered for the field against Frankel. Sounds like a good bet mathematically please log in to view this image please log in to view this image
Ron, you mentioned last week that one of the trainers had their best chance of the week with a horse away from ascot. Did you work out which horse it was? Or can you remind me which trainer said that?
First up FRANKEL, unopposable, but maybe also a small each way bet on RED JAZZ currently at 80/1. the Kings Stand looks as tricky as ever. 3 that stand out for me are Sole Power, Wizz Kid and Ortensia. The booking of Johnny Murtagh might just see SOLE POWER home. The St James Palace also looks competitive. Power is certainly the one to beat but I have always been keen on FENCING and will get the conditions and trip to suit today Then it gets even more competitive in the Coventry! No great fancy in this but I think Sir Prancealot will take a lot of beating, Englishman is interesting and Lines of Battle should not be ignored considering how well Ryan Moore is riding at the moment. An outsider I like the looks of is another Johnny Murtagh ride - New Pearl. Won well on 1000 Guineas day but didn't take to the firmer conditions last time out. If the course doesnt dry out I think he will go close. In the 5.00 VEILED has a good chance to land back to back victories in this and in the 5.35 Lyric Ace looks the one to beat
3.45 Ascot Power 4/1 I don't want to back a favourite at Ascot but Power just looks like the best horse in the St James's Palace stakes. Multiple group winner as a 2 year, Irish Classic winner this year. Winning course form from his only engagement here. 4/1 seems generous to me so i've backed him. I agree Born To Sea may be a danger but what happened at the start of his race in the Irish Classic? That was a dreadful break from the stalls and although he did eat up the ground at the end of the race, Power won very snuggly and i'd be more inclined to think that Power had more gears to reach for himself if the need arose.
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I thought I heard yesterday that Sole Power is a very unlikely runner due to the ground (timeform radio). My thoughts on the card - Frankel, should win and put in a great performance, hopefully akin to his Champions Day win rather than Royal Ascot 2011. I think it will be the same old with Excellebration finishing in the places. Tangerine Trees is my Kings Stand horse, for reasons mentioned on that races thread. Power is a fair favourite in the next, but I worry that he isn't as good as many had hoped. Interesting to see how the much vaunted Most Improved goes here, but it's not a race I want to play in. The raiders from Europe could hold a strong hand too. The Taj for me is a very interesting runner in the Coventry. He was heavily punted on debut and despite showing inexperience he showed enough class to be aimed at this prize. Drawn on the same side as Sir Princealot he should get the right pace to run with and I think he is overpriced against his stablemate (whose form isn't perhaps as good as it looks?). Ascot Stakes - who cares? Windsor Palace, I was really taken by Pay Freeze last time out and whilst short enough I think he is the likely winner.
Cheers Ron although that doesn't really help lol. I guess I'll just have to keep my ears peeled and see if he drops any more clues
Mick Channon is having his best season for some while, and has a strong hand in Friday's Coronation Stakes. In the meantime, it's a rare Royal Ascot without at least one Channon 2yold winning. Consequently, both Pay Freeze and Bungle Inthejungle should not go unbacked in the Windsor Castle. As for the other 2yold race, the Coventry, Richard Hannon cannot be ignored. Consequently I've backed Sir Prancelot, but may end up having a saver on Dawn Approach.
