2.20 Dundalk Prescient 7/1 Once again, I am back to the Orafinitis debut run as I think it has proved to be an absolutely fantastic race for form. Frank Dunneâs trained three year old runs from this race, and is the one I have been very interested to see out again. Last year, Prescient was making her debut in July and ran what has turned out to be a fantastic 1.75L 3rd to Irish 1,000 Guineas winner in Misty for Me (120) and 0.5L behind Katla, who is now rated 99 and has beaten Barefoot Lady by 6L back in October. Added to this, Prescient finished 1.75L clear of the now 94 rated Why. Also finishing behind Prescient that day were subsequent winners Orafinitis in 5th and Tell the Wind 8th, with the latter finishing 4.75L behind tomorrows selection and who is now rated 90 and winner of 76 and placed off 93. Prescient, a 170,000 gns purchase who is well bred, has only had 2 other starts to date. The first came 15 days later last August where Prescient was well supported that day to go off 2/1 Fav. However, Prescient did not run to the same standard as witnessed on debut finishing a disappointing 5th and nearly 10L behind Katla, who also finished in front on debut. It could be that this run came too soon for Prescient after debut, or else she may have had a problem which is possible considering her very lengthy absence. However, this filly is clearly very well thought of at home. After a 10 month absence Prescient made her reappearance run at the Curragh over 6f. However, she was quite disappointing and finished 6.5L 6th behind Coprah. After racing prominently, Prescient faded badly in the last 1.5 furlongs and looked well beaten with 2f to go. The form of the race isnât terrible either, with Vastitas who finished 3.75L in front of todays selection winning by 6L off the same mark of 82. Despite my strong opinion this run should be discounted, if Prescient ran to a similar level today she could very well win in what looks a poor race. Prescient makes her handicap debut off a mark of 74, and if you look take her debut performance into account she appears very well handicapped. She steps back down to 5f and maker her AW debut tomorrow, and although the surface is an unknown for her, I think she could act nicely on the surface. Her small trainer Frank Dunne has been in pretty good form this year. From his 5 runners, he has had 1 winner, and 3 placed efforts, with Prescientâs reappearance his only occasion outside of the money. Dunne has only had 1 venture to the AW in the last 5 years which resulted in a 2nd place finish. All in all, I think Prescient has a really really good chance. The form of the first race is excellent and I think there are significant reasons to disregard this fillyâs 2nd and 3rd outings. Horses have a big scope for improvement between 2 and 3 yrs. The 50-80 handicap tomorrow is a fairly poor affair, with the vast majority of horses exposed. I can see the main dangers coming from Ger Lyons LTO winner Red Army Blues and David Marnaneâs winner off a 1lb lower mark by 2L over C+D being the main threats. However, not only being the most unexposed, Prescient has shown the best form in this race and if she takes to the surface and performs to her abilities I think she can win this easily.
Roto, good morning. On the face of her first run,Prescient would seem to have an outstanding chance. Yet there's two or three things I'm not keen on... Firstly, she did not progress after her first run- and that initial good performance could have been attributable to her being an unusually early January 1st foal. Secondly, she "swished her tail" in her second run.....might she be not 'genuine?' Thirdly, it's not not easy to excuse two failures. I should think the market may be informative, and I certainly hope she wins for you!
Cheers Tamerlo for taking the time out to respond - always good to get somebody elses opinions! Firstly, I didn't know about her being an unusually early foal, and certainly could have attributed to a certain 'gloss' to her first run. However, I think she is very well bred and for the time being I will put her performance down to her being a class filly as opposed to a perhaps more advanced filly at the time of her debut. Yes, the tail swishing for me was a concern but I think it may have been a once off. We all have our bad days and it is plausible that she just wasn't up for racing on that particular day. However, we will learn more in time and I am willing to ignore that for the time being until I see otherwise. If it happens again I will have serious questions to pose about her. Perhaps easy was the wrong word when I was describing excusing the failures. I think there is definitely fair grounds to dismiss them though. As I have stated, she may not have been in the humour to race and thus the temperamental attitude. Considering the 10 month absence the proceeded it is also possible she either picked up an injury or was not right in some ways - but I can't be sure and I am just speculating. In terms of her last start, I think its excusable to forgive any horse their first run back after 10 months. It wasn't too bad an effort considering, and I believe she may have just ran out of gas towards the end of the race. I believe Prescient is capable of winning off this mark without question. She has been sandwiched by horses who have proved that they can perform at this and indeed higher levels, and although it may take time to replicate those levels, she definitely has shown enough on track and has the breeding profile to fulfil this remit. She has an entry at the Curragh on Sunday so if she doesn't show anything in either race I will be worried. At the end of the day we all have to make decisions based on opinions so although there are question marks, I definitely think she is worth siding with. Thanks for taking the time out to respond and cheers for the opinions!
Roto, don't mind me...I do tend to be cynical at times! I see you support Sheffield United- reminds me of happy days when I lived in Sheffield in the sixties and seventies. Memories of when I used to go to Bramall Lane and watch Tony Currie, Alan Woodward, etc.
We had a Tony Currie in our game Tam. He played for my Rugby League team Brisbane. ( not that I own them of course )He also played 15 games in State of Origin and pulled on an Australian jumper on 7 occasions. He was a wonderful payer.
4.00 Striker Torres 10/1 1pt EW C&D winner two runs ago with a good jockey on board. Finished well… Last run over C&D was beaten by 4.5L but did make some late progress and did not have the clearest of runs. Paddy Aspell doing the steering with an amazing strike rate of just 2% in the last 5 years says it all really… Should stick to NH. There are more details but I don’t want to write an essay if it loses. 7.00 Steel City Boy 20/1 0.5pt win 7.00 School Boy Champ 16/1 0.5pt win I feel they are overpriced. They have better chances of winning this than many in the race so is worth a small punt each.
Morning two for me today, have started watching every replay each day and I am now getting in to lower grade action as well. Seems the prices are fair as well. Started GG alert and first three have won, and yup you guessed it I forgot to check my mail and missed them all, thankfully they weren't great prices (5-4, 11-8 and 11-4) 9.10 Southwell - CO DEPENDANT - 11-2 BOG - This one went on to my GG alert list after running 3rd in a claimer at Wolverhampton last time out over 6f, he was slowly away and also denied a clear run when coming to make a challenge, I think he would have won the race that day and although this is tougher back in handicap company the step up to 7f will suit and I do feel he is value at 11/2. 4.40 Brighton - ANNES ROCKET E.W NAP - 14-1 BOG - After a few below par efforts At Goodwood and Salisbury Annes Rocket returned to form last time out when running a fine third at Wolverhampton in similar company to what she faces today. I felt there was significant promise in this ones outing last time out, held up towards the rear (as usual) but was forced to go around the whole field whilst still travelling strongly, before running on well to claim 3rd place. The step up to 1m should suit and if in the same mood today now switched to turf I will be disapointed if the selection doesn't grab a place at least
Todays NAP is 2.00 Beverley Miss Rosie to go with rest of win lucky 15 2.40 Brighton The Tatling 7.40 Southwell Upper Lambourn 8.00 Yarmouth Daliana
3 today - 2.00 Angel Of Hope 6.10 New Decade 6.40 Dicky Mint If you wish to read the blog and the rationale behind these and also pointers to the other 2 year old races then pop to MY BLOG Cheers and good luck one and all
Interesting that you mentioned this horse, I was looking at this race last night and I thought that he could be a horse to follow at Southwell. I however looked into this race and I ended up siding with two, Jonnie Skull and Elusive Warrior. The race to me looks to be lacking a major pace angle and I think the pair could dominate from the start, I like Elusive Warrior but I think Nora Looby is a liability and I will not be backing it because of the jockey. Jonnie Skull is a real Southwell specialist and he lost no cast in defeat behind Tenancy last time out (who was on my gg.com list and I didn't back it) over course and distance. They replace Kirsty from the BHA race fixing case with SDS the new 'big' thing in racing. I think SDS will power him home. I am backing Jonnie Skull to win with Co Dependant as a saver.
Interesting thoughts Nass really getitng in to the lower grade stuff from a punting point of view, I suppose a few bad results will soon put me off it
Nass, or anyone else for that matter, can I get some advice on Catterick please? I've been a hunting races around this course, just to come to terms with it. It's mentioned as being all down hill from the 5 furlong pole. With the sharp home corner, it certainly appears to be a front runners course. What worries me though, is the 3 furlong run home, with what seems to be a bit of a rise half way down the running. Do many get home from a fair way back, or it pretty much as described, a on pace course? I did notice that in a lot of the sprint races, the pace was generally pretty hot. They like to get going. So I was thinking, with a hot pace, and a 3 furlong run home, could a horse like Opus Maximus blow them away in the last furlong, in the first tomorrow? Even with 9.6, he looks the one to beat. Bilko Pak will take some catching though.
Brave Battle in the 1.30 is a bet - Drawn 1 and can race prominently, yard are getting winners and this horse is nicely handicapped. Also done combination forecasts with him/King Of Swords/Port Ronan
Cyc I would suggest that it is indeed a speed track and those who are able to get to the front and run a sensible pace are likely to win sprints at the course, however I do think that some jockeys go too fast at the track and if you do have a few going too fast it does set it up for a closer. On the round track (so basically the 6 furlong races) those who are able to get to the rail and run with early pace are normally the ones to be with. On the five furlong straight(er) track I think the draw is less of an issue. In regards tomorrows race I think we might see a SDS special on Night Trade who despite being drawn wide could get an easy enough time if he gets to the front. He is the best in at the weights (if you use weight for age) which also will help him in this race.
The wife was out at the weekend with miss brotherton and her friends for a good old girls drink.During the evening she let slip she was keeping herself in prep for to win on KYLE OF BUTE today.
Brave Battle never going on that surface. Strange run from it. Frustrating as I liked the winner but thought the other two would run big races.
