Ayr 2.00 - Bapak Pintar - An auction maiden which asks a couple of key questions about prices and weights, the key here for me is that we have two potentially interesting newcomers taking on lightly raced horses off differing weights. Bapak Pintar was a breeze up purchase for the Ryan yard and he clearly showed them enough to suggest that a price of 24000 was fair enough for this Royal Applause colt. Ryan has been having a very good year with his juveniles and this one is very interesting in this race. I think he is the most interesting horse in the race and is a bet at 7/2. 1pt win 7/2 BOG. Windsor 6.40 - Chunky Diamond - This race to me revolves around the early season form of Chunky Diamond and I think he is the one to be with in this maiden. He ran in the Magic City maiden on debut and then followed up by running in the Commissar maiden, both of which worked out really well as early season form. He doesn't seem to be meeting that class of horse here and I think he can be a very nice bet at an EW price of 9/1. If he only runs to form I think he will be around the places but if he improves I can see him winning this. 1pt EW 9/1 BOG. Will be having a dabble this afternoon on a few too
Morning all, Walter Swinburn just tipped up one of his on ATR, 8.40, Miss Chicane, was 25-1 e/w but shortening fast. Do with it what you will.
One for me today, the Howard Johnson trained NEXT ADDITION 13/2 in the 4.30 Ayr. Back to 8f where LTO over this distance in Class 2 Company he just failed to get back up against the Tom Tate trained MY SINGLE MALT when going off as favourite and had some useful types behind him that day. He runs today with the same useful 5lb claimer on board but is off a 4lb better mark and at his best has the beating of this small field and is my NAP.
8.50 - An interesting maiden at Wolves. Spanish Plume went into the notebook after its debut, and I think today will be much of the same for this gelding. Expect him to be held up, find trouble and finish a good few lengths off the pace. Then its one more run... The interesting one for me is the Balding horse Winged Diva. She was very green on debut and she looked backwards. The market that day suggested that she had talent and I think there was enough on show to suggest that she would come on for the run and perhaps was one to follow in maidens. I think she is very interesting in this moderate maiden and at 12/1 I think she is a fair EW bet. Balding isn't one to hide a horse for handicapping and I think a maiden win would make her a much better prospect for stud duties.
Ffos 3-20 Dreams of Dawn - Tote place Windsor 18.40 Courtland Avenue ew (12/1 SJ) Ayr 16.30 Izzy the Ozzy (nap) (13/8 VC,WH)
Hello lads. Hangover feel to todays cards after the weekends action. Nothing much takes the eye today tbh...might have a small interest in Plutorius in the opener at the most picturesque course in the British Isles,Killarney. GL anyone having a go.
2.30 Mother Jones - I thought this was a typical Smart horse last season but it failed to win races. It won nicely LTO in a poor maiden and I wonder whether that will give the horse a confidence boost, and if it does this mark still seems fair. 11/2
8.10 Windsor National Hope 18/1 This lightly raced filly trained by George Baker has only had 3 starts to date so far. Her debut performance in January was an impressive 2L victory Sofias Number One over 6f on the AW at Lingfield. The form of that race has worked out nicely, with the 3 horses who have raced since in behind that day have come out and won subsequently. National Hope's victory was all the more impressive as she missed the break coming out of the stalls, a characteristic she has a tendency to do. On her 2nd start she posted a decent 2.25L 4th behind Flynn's Boy back in March at Lingfield over 7f again. The form of that race looks ok. The 2nd Romantic Wish, who finished 1.75L ahead of todays selection has subsequently come out and finished 3rd twice and an impressive 6L victory in his last start. National Hope’s final start was a disappointment and was indeed her first start on turf, which is todays surface. She pulled to hard that day and was relatively well held as a result. I think that this run can be discounted as a result. Although her ability to run on the turf is very questionable, it is the performance of trainer George Baker’s 3 year olds that have swayed me to back this filly. Of his 31 3 year old runners this year, the yard boast an impressive 10 winners and 32% strike rate. He also boasts a further 6 placed efforts which boasts a 51.6% win or place rate, which is very high indeed. The talented claimer Matthew Davies, who rode this filly for her first two starts boasts a 50% strike rate when teaming up with Baker’s 3 year olds takes over again today. National Hope is Baker’s only runner of the day and Davies only ride also. Its quite annoying that there are only 7 runners but with the yards excellent record in this sphere, the filly’s promise in her first two starts and unexposed nature lead me to believe she is vastly overpriced at 18s and definitely worth a bet. 8.00 Killarney Schelm 10/3 I really think that this 4 runner affair can be narrowed down to two: Schelm and Bahrain Storm. I can't see the other two being able to live with these two. Schelm won this race last year and is taken in preference to Bahrain Storm who should be using this run as a prep for the Galway Festival. As a result I fully expect Schelm to come out on top of this.
should just have laid Berbice rather than look for the winner. Blew the start but looked the winner at points. He will be short next time too. Laid it at odds on (little above 1.5)
Ron, that horse was a case in point. You got your brown envelope back for the place!!! I say send that convict home, that ride was criminal. (cue Cyc)
You do realise of course that, on an extremely conservative basis (ie working on a daily return) that represents an annual interest rate of 72%. Where else can you get such good returns. And you can afford to have one loser in 51. Could tempt me back into betting that could.
Amazing how people can bet in running at Windsor, the camera angle in the finish is dreadful. The winner of the first looked to be in 3rd at best until they got into the last two strides.
Eternal Youth up next, shame the trip is shorter than optimum but think it will give the odds on jolly a race
