Tingle Creek

Entries for the Tingle Creek have been released today. The race is a Grade 1 run at Sandown over 2m and is the second most prestigious 2m prize after the Champion Chase at the Festival.

Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls has held something of a stranglehold over the race winning the last 6 renewals with Kauto Star, Twist Magic and Master Minded winner two apiece. Interestingly 5 different jockeys have won with Ruby Walsh winning twice and one each for Mick Fitzgerald, Tony McCoy, Sam Thomas and Noel Fehily. Can his domination continue.

Sizing Europe - 11/4 (Boylesports)
Finian's Rainbow - 3/1 (Various)
Tataniano - 9/2 (Paddy Power)
Wishfull Thinking - 6/1 (totesport, Betfred)
Kauto Stone - 10/1 (Various)
Gauvain - 12/1 (Various)
I'msingingtheblues - 20/1 (Various)
Cornas - 25/1 (Various)
Dan Breen - 40/1 (William Hill)
Fix The Rib - 66/1 (Various)
Kinkeel - 500/1 (Various)

I think Sizing Europe may be vulnerable after a hard race last time but we all know he can be top class on his day. Ground conditions are sure to be more to his liking on this occasions and his ability to jump soundly at speed will stand him in good stead over Sandown's fearsome test.

Next best is Finian's Rainbow who shaped like the best prospective Champion Chase contender from last season's novices. Outstayed by Captain Chris at Cheltenham in the Arkle and then got a Grade 1 on the board when beating Ghizao at Aintree. Potential to go right to the top and very dangerous.

Tatanianowas impressive when taking a handicap at Chepstow on his seasonal reappearance. He has always threatened to be a big player at the top level but never quite delivered. Scintillating at Aintree in 2010 but below par all of last year. Big danger if he is at his best.

Wishfull Thinking has never run over 2m, except for a 2m1f bumper at Hereford back in February 2009. Nevertheless, he has shown top class form over 2m4f and has never lacked pace. It just might be that a drop back to 2m is what he needs. Most impressive when showing blistering pace at Aintree this spring.

Kauto Stone seems an unlikely runner with the John Durkan at Punchestown on the 11th December his next reported target. I am not aware of any change in plan.

Gauvain was an easy winner at Cheltenham's Open Meeting. Suspicion that Woolcombe Folly was below par and he failed to go on from winning that same race a year ago. Might improve this year but suspicion that he is just short of the level required.

Already busy this year with a good 3rd in the 2m handicap at the Open Meeting and a win at Ascot two weeks ago. Nevertheless, it seems hard to imagine that I'msingingtheblues has found the necessary improvement to figure here. Rated 157 at his peak a few years back and now up to 152 but still more required.

Another for Nick Williams is Cornas. He started the season with a decent 2nd to Medermit in the Haldon Gold Cup. That was in receipt of 1lb and Medermit has since been a well beaten 3rd behind Master Minded and Somersby. Hard to imagine that he can get any closer to the top level performers.

Dan Breen was well beaten in the Arkle (7th) and in the Maghull at Aintree (3rd), both times in excess of 24 lengths behind Finian's Rainbow. Only 7th in the Ascot handicap won by his stablemate I'msingingtheblues off of 148 and very hard to see him getting involved in this.

Fix The Rib was a 94 length 9th of 11 in the Ascot Handicap. He has never been up to Grade 1 level as a rating of 145 suggests. Even at his very best (156) he falls short of the required level by quite a margin.

Kinkeel is aged 12 and rated 76 which tells you everything you need to know. No chance.

Conclusion: The 4 market principals seem to hold all the aces. Sizing Europe has the best form in the book with the remaining three all about potential. At the prices Sizing Europe is worth taking on, especially since he has tended to reserve his best for the spring. Tataniano is given healthy respect because he is capable of a high level on his day and 2m might be the making of Wishfull Thinking who has shown great pace over 2m4f. However, preference is for Finian's Rainbow who looked a potential star last season. His only defeat was at the hands of Captain Chris in the Arkle when outstayed up the hill. He doesn't have the benefit of a run which may be a slight concern but I fancy him to take high order in the 2m division and he can take this before going on to Champion Chase glory in March.

 

Sizing Europe is a big lay here for me. Always a better horse at Cheltenham over what is a truly run, stiff 2m. Not certain the Tingle Creek offers the right test for him and therefore at those prices, I'll be a layer. No doubt he will be prepared for Cheltenham in March though and you'd be brave to lay him for a hat-trick!

I suspect Finian's Rainbow has the class to take this and he would be following in some good footsteps. He looked electric in the Arkle last year and I still can't believe he got beat (and I was on CC that day!). whilst Tataniano looked back to something like his best on reappearance and Nicholls did seem a bit happier with him when talking about his plans this season.

 

Updated the original post with the current odds. 6/1 Wishfull Thinking looks very much like he won't be running does it not? Seems a bit too good to be true.

11/4 about Sizing Europe might look very big too.

I don't think I'll be getting involved until the day, if at all.

Really intriguing contest though.

 

I think a 2nd kauto win in 2 weeks is on the cards! lol If his inexperience doesnt affect him too much I think he will be up there at the end maybe with his stable mate but like Zen I shall be waiting till at the course to get involved!

 

Kauto Stone won't run, Left in as a precaution in the event of it absolutely chucking it down and soft ground showing up at the weekend if not then Tataniano will run and I assume the Peterborough or John Durkan will be the next start for Kauto Stone. Looks a very hot race does the Tingle Creek this weekend, On bare form Sizing Europe is well ahead of the field and a worthy priced favourite although I share the same concerns as the rest that looks vunerable here after a hard run on his last start. Finians Rainbow ran a good race in the Arkle just running out of steam on the run in, Not sure weather I fancy him or not I think he as tons of ability and improved his jumping dramatically at Cheltenham hes got to have a big chance and I'd expect him to be there or there abouts if he is a genuine Champion Chase contender. Tataniano as always promised alot but you never know what horse is going to turn up, He was impressive on his last start but the form hasn't really been franked by Woolcombe Folly who was behind Tataniano on that occasion who then finished well behind Gauvain on his last start (Gauvain does usually run well fresh, WF looks out of sorts)

Im torn between Finains Rainbow and Tataniano and I think it will be between the two of them on Saturday, The fact that Paul Nicholls as a superb record in the race is a plus but I think Finians Rainbow as enormous potential and I expect a big run.. Geraghty or Walsh?!?

 

Just checked the forecast it is meant to rain wednesday friday and saturday! So who knows! I would like to see Kauto run against this kind of competition! To see how he shapes up! But I do agree with you Istbraq it will be between Tatanio and Finans Rainbow. With I think Finans Rainbow having a little to much. He is so consitent and has won 4 out of his last 5 races and the only race he didnt win was the arkle at this years festival. He beat a good horse Ghizao at aintree in april So I think he will beat another nicholls runner!

Saying that I would like to see Imsingintheblues win- followed a very good 3rd at cheltenham when beaten by tanks for that with win at ascot jumped well and just stayed fantastically. Drifted in and out that day and won at 8/1 beat Dan Breen that day too. but would like to see him win, but others will have too much!

 

Was on Finian`s Rainbow Ante post for the Arkle last season, was gutted he got caught after travelling and jumping them silly. I remember a lot of people writing him off after they tried to hold him up at Warwick in the King Maker.

He looked to resent those tactics and his jumping suffered because of this.

I think at Sandown you need to jump and travel well and this is this horse`s asset.

So its

FINIAN`S RAINBOW 3/1

 

Perhaps we can all steal SBCs thunder here because I'm with those who think Tataniano will win this, I'll be looking at Wishful Thinking for the forecast as I made his Paddy Power performance that of a horse who doesn't (yet) stay 2m 5f, the stiff 2m at Sandown could be ideal for him

 

Simple. Back the top two in the market.

Sizing Europe is the best 2 miler around in the older ages and FR looks to be one of the best up and coming 2 mile chasers.

 

As my regular readers are aware Tataniano (glance to the left and you can see him in full flight) has been an old fave of mine ever since he won the Grade 2 novice chase at Cheltenham’s ‘Open’ meeting over 2 years ago. The way that he jumped, travelled and then quickened that day was a joy to behold and one of the best performances from a novice chaser that I have ever seen. He then, of course, followed this victory up by winning the Grade 1 16 furlong novice chase at Aintree’s Grand National fixture.

Unfortunately though this promise wasn’t built on last term as a combination of injury and repeated soft ground went against him. In fact I advise people to totally ignore his 2 efforts in the 2010/11 season as they were not the real Tatanaino.

At Chepstow last time out though the old boy looked Majestic with a capital ‘M’ and in the process had his official mark raised 9 pounds to 169.

In my view 9/2 about him, after he has displayed so comprehensively that he is ‘back’ is a huge price and I must admit to being quite confident re his chances on Saturday. The opposition though are no ‘back numbers’ with many exceptional beasts lining up alongside Tatanaino. If asked to nominate the toughest of these I’d say Mr Henderson’s Finians Rainbow.

Incidentally the MD of Sandown Park was on the wireless this morn talking to the legend of the airwaves ‘Big’ Alan Brazil. Amazing to think that this time last year they had a foot of snow on the ground and the meeting was abandoned. No such fear this time around as in comparison the weather is balmy!

 

Sadly Finian's Rainbow is out of the Tingle Creek.

Massive shame because I think it detracts quite considerably from the race. It would have been nice to see how the Arkle form stood up against the established stars.

Edit: http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/finians-rainbow-out-of-saturdays-tingle-creek/954995/

 

Tataniano for Me, Had the 9/2 yesterday. My biggest fear was Finians Rainbow so its eased since hes been ruled out (I was looking forward to his re-appearance I must say though) Sizing Europe is obviously the biggest danger but I liked the way Tataniano travelled and jumped on his last appearance and SE didn't win again until Cheltenham after losing to Kauto Star at Down Royal... I think them 3 miles take alot out of him and he had a longer lay off last time. I think he looks vunerable and I feel Tataniano can take advantage...

 

Come on rain, keep coming! I wanna see Kauto

 

Okay, so with Finians Rainbow out, that leaves things a bit more open.

I think Wishful Thinking boasts the right credentials to land a race such as this as he has always had excellent pace despite running over 2 and a half miles, and jumps well too. A good round could see him surprise this field.

Tataniano could yet end up being pretty special, he's only young and had difficulties last season. I'm trying to find out more from Nicholls' perspective about how much better he thinks he looks this year, and I have the race between WT and Tataniano, and that would be my RFC.

 

For what it's worth I was at Sandown this morning on a conference and it was blue sky, bright sunshine and warm weather all the way, and I'm not sure there's much (if any) due to land before Saturday - Sat itself looks to be wet but if nothing falls before then the track will ride good IMO

 

Sizing Europe deserves to be an even money shot imo. The only negative for me is the way he stopped to a walk at Down Royal, but 3m was never going to be his trip, and he's had plenty of time to recover. At odds against he's a strong bet for me.