Timeform Preview Of The Derby

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/r...11903&story=UK:_Timeform_Preview_Of_The_Derby


In a Royal Wedding year will the crowds at Epsom be cheering for a Derby winner owned by the Queen? Timeform runs the rule over the main contenders for the Epsom classic on June 4.

Sir Michael Stoute's Carlton House, the colt owned by Queen Elizabeth and winner of the Dante Stakes at York, is a short-priced favourite for Epsom glory.

His Dante performance placed him firmly in the limelight and, with the physical scope and pedigree to suggest the step up in trip should prove no problem (his dam stayed 1½m and half-brother won over 15f), he's certainly the one to beat for a trainer who saddled his fifth winner of the race with Workforce last year.

Whilst acknowledging the Derby record of Sir Michael Stoute, it should not be forgotten that Aidan O'Brien has a wealth of talent to choose from this year, the shortest priced of which is currently Recital.

A Group 1 winner at two in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, Recital put a disappointing reappearance behind him when readily winning the Derrinstown at Leopardstown last time, producing a performance that brought him firmly into the Derby picture.

However, whilst there's no doubt he's got plenty of ability, there's no denying that he showed more than a hint of character that day (on toes beforehand, hung left and carried head awkwardly), which begs the question as to how he will handle the idiosyncratic contours of Epsom.

O'Brien's Racing Post Trophy runner-up Seville wasn't quite able to match his Doncaster performance when 1½ lengths second in the Dante but is another who is sure to do better. Although there's no reason why he should reverse the form with his York conqueror Carlton House, Seville is bred to relish the step up in trip (both sire and dam showed their best form over 1½m) and he'll go to Epsom with place claims at the very least.

Roderic O'Connor restored his reputation with a career-best in winning the Irish 2000 Guineas and is another Ballydoyle horse who comes into contention. Although another by Derby winner and Derby-winning sire Galileo, his immediate pedigree (half brother to 6f 2yo winner, dam winner over 8.5f) doesn't suggest he's guaranteed to stay a mile and a half and he has the option of the Prix du Jockey Club in France next weekend.

Other Ballydoyle entries who could well make the line up are Chester Vase winner Treasure Beach and Derrinstown second and third, Memphis Tennessee and Regent Street.

Treasure Beach is yet to finish outside the places in his six races and looks to have place possibilities, whilst dark horse Memphis Tennessee has the physique to improve throughout the season and looks sure to appreciate the step up to 1½m.

With several of the Ballydoyle representatives highly likely to relish the trip, it's possible that a pacemaker will be employed and, with Regent Street performing those duties last time, he could well do the same at Epsom.

The Coolmore challenge could well be bolstered further by the presence of impressive Prix Greffulhe winner Pour Moi, trained in France by Andre Fabre.

With the step up in trip appearing likely to be within Pour Moi's compass, he should not be overlooked.

While the generosity of Sheikh Mohammed means that Carlton House won't be running in his colours at Epsom (the colt was a gift to the Queen as a yearling), the Godolphin operation will be well represented by Ocean War after his win in a listed race at Newmarket last time.

That performance, although some way short of what is required to be competitive in a classic, has nevertheless bought him into the reckoning, with further improvement likely.

Ed Dunlop trained Snow Fairy to win the Oaks last year and could return to Epsom with a live Derby contender in the shape of Craven winner and 2000 Guineas third Native Khan.

Whilst the trip is an unknown with Native Khan, as he is yet to go further than a mile, it's worth noting that he is a half-brother to a French 2m1f hurdle winner and his sire Azamour won a King George and was third in a Breeders' Cup Turf in his only races over the Derby distance.

The way Native Khan shapes suggests he should stay.

John Gosden, who trained Benny The Dip to win the Derby in 1997, could be doubly represented with Masked Marvel and Nathaniel.

Masked Marvel looks the most certain to line up after his win in the listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood last time and he's undoubtedly open to further improvement after just four career starts.

However, he needs to step up markedly on that form to be competitive in a classic, whilst Nathaniel, a head second to Treasure Beach in the Chester Vase last time, has the option of the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.

There will undoubtedly be much talk of the absence of the peerless Frankel, who, if lining up at Epsom, would have been a staggering 20 lb clear of Carlton House on ratings.

In Frankel's absence, the Derby looks wide open and, with Native Khan arguably the horse to emerge with most credit from those vanquished at Newmarket.

He appeals as the value alternative to Carlton House at Epsom

 

Does anyone have the Timeform ratings?

 

Progambler, good article - well presented.
The problem is the cynical side of my nature says that this Derby field- likewise last year- seems to lack quality.
O'Brien's Roderick O'Connor seemed to give Frankel as good a race as anything last year and he confirmed that in the Irish 2000 Guineas.
Now he's going for the French Derby, does O'Brien have a better candidate for Epsom?
One would think so. Therefore I conclude that, if Recital is better than R.O., then he should go close to winning at Epsom.
Regarding Native Khan, I don't like the Racing Post Trophy as a guide to the Classics, and Seville has the beating of N.K. on that running.
My method of selecting the Derby winner is a horse that has only lost once in its career up to the day of the race; if twice then there has to be a good reason.
On that basis, it's between Carlton House, Recital, Ocean War,and Manhaj.
Ocean War's form wasn't franked by Cai Shen last Saturday.
I should expect Carlton House and Recital to fight out the finish- with Manhaj the dark horse who may not get the trip.

 

Not really looked at the card yet,but one that could be a possible ew at the moment is Nathaniel if they decide to run

 

My ew picks are Ocean War and Treasure Beach. Does anyone have any stats on how many Derby winners have been beaten already in the current season, other than in the 2000 Gns. I'm not one for stats since I appreciate only too well that if the answer was 1, then next year the stats will say 2. Very informative. Bust just interested, if anyone knows.

 

Ron, I'm not mad on stats myself but when it comes to the Classics, I tend to think that the winner needs in most cases to be the best horse of his/her age in the country- or at very least 'on the day.'
Therefore you don't expect it to be beaten very much-if at all- prior to Epsom.
I can give you some figures for The Derby- going back to Commander in Chief in 1993:

Since their first race as 2 year old or 3 year old- prior to Derby...

Horses which have only lost once = 9
Horses which are unbeaten = 5
Horses which have lost more than once =4

The four horses which lost more than once include New Approach which lost twice narrowly(in both Guineas) to Henry The Navigator; hence extenuating circumstances.
The other three were Benny The Dip, Oath, and Erhaab- probably relatively mediocre winners.
Motivator, Galileo, High Rise, Lammtarra, and Commander in Chief were unbeaten.
Out of the nine that lost only once before Epsom, four were having their first race as a two year old.
I should think, Ron , that the pattern is similar for the past 50 years- and that you would expect in 75-80% of cases that the Derby winner will have lost not more than once in its life prior to lining up at Epsom.

 

I'd agree that Native Khan is the best horse to be opposing the fav with! The Fav is way to short!

I feel Carlton House is still voulnerable on the stamina side of things, Street Cry rarely produces horses that stay much further than a mile, and i'm sure AOB will be well aware of this, and will have his pacemaker set a strong gallop! I also don't like the fact the Dante time was 3 seconds slower than Midday over the same course and distance on the same day, that tels me it was always likely to favour a horse with speed. Tge step up in trip should bring Seville closer to Carlton House, as Seville is perfectly bred for the Derby trip, so I wouldn't bd suprised to see a reversal I form there!

I would love to have a chat with AOB and find out how Recital and Sevillle compare, but my gut instinct tells me Seville is the better horse, I may be wrong, but i just feel he would have had Recital in the Dante if he was there main hope!

It's an interesting Derby for sure, and I think is wide open, though the value lies with Native Khan

 

What is to be made of Fallon deciding not to ride Native Khan? And choosing Recital instead.

 

I agree with what Shergar says. I think there are sufficient stamina concerns surrounding Carlton House's pedigree that he is worth opposing at the prices.

He looks to hold a strong form chance but he is far too short on what he has done. Aiden O'Brien doesn't seem to have an outstanding candidate, with neither Recital and Seville standing out, though both obviously hold claims. The french horse looks half decent but not sure if it will be up to this. He won well last time, but he looked very green in the early stages and i would have serious doubts about whether he would handle the track because he looked very unbalanced. Also, whilst he won well, he was hardly flying away at the finish.

The one i'm interested in is Native Khan. I think the Guineas form looks strong, with Dubawi Gold, Roderic O'Connor, Fury and Slim Shadey all holding up the form. Native Khan who finished a decent 3rd is massively overpriced. He must be a good shot EW, with the step up in trip likely, but not certain, to suit. The fact that Fallon has deserted him must be a concern, unless that is it is more to do with the long term, and the rides he might pick up, rather than the chances of NK and Recital in this particular race. Johnny Murtagh is a pretty able deputy though.

 

Sorry for the double post but Ron posted while i was typing mine up.

There are two ways of looking at it:

1. Fallon thinks Recital is better than Native Khan and has therefore chosen to ride him because he has the best chance of winning.

2. Fallon is hoping he can get his foot in the door at Ballydoyle and hopefully pick up some other top rides over the summer (Wonder Of Wonders in the Oaks for example) and didn't want to rock the boat by deserting Recital.

As my previous post would suggest, i am keen to adopt the second view because i think Native Khan has a great chance. Whether Fallon just prefers Recital is uncertain. We will find out on Saturday.

 

Sorry me yet again. Just read this quote from Ed Dunlop which seems to suggest option 2 is the case:

"The enticement of the great Ballydoyle battleship steered him towards their horse"

 

I'd agree with Zenyatta here, Fallon is trying to get his foot back in the door with Ballydoyle, and the fact they have no number 1 jockey, means there's always the chance Fallon could get back his old job, as I can't see Moore leaving Stoute!

One things for sure there isn't a better jockey around Epsom than Fallon, the ride on Kris Kin was tge best ride I've ever seen on any horse by any jockey, he as good as carried him over the line

 

You mean like Piggot lifted Roberto over the line?

 

Ron....Ah Roberto the only horse ever to beat arguably the greatest of all time, Brigadier Gerard. A far better horse than Kris Kin. Fallon has never been fortunate enough to ride a horse as good as Roberto in the Derby. Fallon probably rode 2 of the worst Derby winners in history to victory in Oath and Kris Kin, which just highlights what a genius he is around Epsom

 

Morning Shergar. I was there with my Dad when Roberto won that Derby, and I backed it. What a battle that was.

 

This Timeform Preview does not actually tell those of us in the UK a great deal that we did not already know and was clearly intended for the International market (it originated in Australia).

I am not sure why Native Khan having a half-brother that won over hurdles in France is relevant as the Derby does not feature any obstacles other than the rest of the field.

I liked the other grey, Ocean War, when he won at Newmarket but that was only a Listed race and he will need to find significant improvement to feature. The fact that he did not contest any of the recognised trials makes me think that he has defaulted a run at Epsom because Godolphin do not have any other candidates.

Given that Aidan O’Brien’s runners all appear to have improved for their seasonal debut (e.g. both Irish Guineas winners unplaced on debut in English equivalents), I think there is every chance that Seville will reverse Dante placings with Her Majesty’s favourite as the York race was no real test of either horse’s stamina.

If Kieren Fallon gets on Recital and the punters latch on to it, Seville may drift on the day. It is currently a best-priced 17/2.

 

welcome Quartermoon11

 

I said after the Dante I could see the AOB mob trying to run a finish out of Carlton House and test the stamina. If Seville was to win I'd not be shocked.
If KF had the choice of NK and Recital and Recital is the one he's gone for then its simple then you would assume he thinks he has the better chance? Unless he's wanting to get back into Ballydoyle's graces?

 

Welcome QM.

 

And to add yet more detail to my comments about Fallon choosing Recital:

The stories i have read in the papers seem to indicate that Fallon will now ride So You Think when Moore is claimed by Stoute to ride Workforce. Now rifing the King George and Arc winner must have been a pretty enticing option so i can well understand his decision. And i will stick to my original pick that Native Khan is very good EW value at the prices.