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Discussion in 'Hull City' started by dennisboothstash, Oct 29, 2020.
Map looking good nationally and locally
Covid now doesn't effect the rich and famous....no one smelling a rat ?
Loads more testing, loads more positives than earlier in the year, less deaths and hospitalisations.
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Still heading south..This is yesterdays, it seems the guy that puts them together was stuck on the M25, such is the lockdown.
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have you got the URL for the source of this table?
He tends to update it around about 16:30.
Following recent posts on the relatively low numbers of positive tests in Liverpool when using the Innova lateral flow rapid testing system it is interesting to note that local assessments have revealed that the test (when performed by "trained health professionals") gave false negative results in 30% of cases - a figure that rose to almost 50% where individuals collected their own samples. This figure is very close to that suggested by earlier research by Public Health England and Oxford University in conjunction with government scientists at Porton Down - their self testing figure was slightly better at 42.5%,
Bearing in mind that the target false negative rate for (much criticised) cervical screening was only 5% these levels of test sensitivity are very poor and would normally be considered unsatisfactory for population screening. I haven't seen published figures for the other side of the coin, the false positive rates, but I seem to recall a figure of 19% having been mentioned - again, far too high for the Innova test as being appropriate for mass testing.
Its worrying to see that Innova Medical Group Inc., a U.S. company set up only in March 2020, have contracts for £634,000,000 and no previous track record in viral testing. It appears to be the test of choice for university students returning home for Christmas and also for visitors wishing to see elderly relatives in care homes but with these test failure rates it really isn't very reassuring.
I still struggle to understand why you need to ram a stick right to the back of your head, and then amplify the results over 40 times, to try to find a virus that you can catch by being 5' away from someone.
Unfortunately they fit through nets when we try to catch them in mid air. I'm surprised that the PCR requires as many as 40 cycles of splitting and annealing to allow sufficient material to be identified. My experience of PCR is very limited but I'm sure we used far fewer cycles in the good old days.
"Trained health professionals"...Like those who do assessments for the DWP and declare that someone can lift an empty cardboard box so they can work as a shelf stacker?
I think they meant the army in Liverpool so quite a loose definition. The Porton researchers got the very best results when scientists collected the sample - a mere 20.8 percent false negatives.
The estimated R number for coronavirus is between 0.8 and 1.0 in the UK.
I see the Welsh firebreak was effective then.
Barrels of beer are being poured down drains as Wales' hospitality industry prepared for the alcohol ban to come into force.
Pubs, restaurants and cafes will be banned from serving alcohol from Friday evening and will be unable to open to customers beyond 18:00 GMT.
Hull (according to BBC’s numbers) has dropped again to 232/100,000, now placed 35th.
And Sweden, held up as a shining example, are shutting schools as cases soar. No one, not just our government, has got it right.
My guess is the next step will be pointing out that the R value is more of a political than a scientific measure, and we'll be segregated on some other headline criteria. Especially as it looks like London and the South East are rising faster than areas in the north are falling.
I shall have to be patient, very patient and hopefully not end up a patient...
A lighter slant.... I can think of a few blokes I know who'd look the other way rather than at the needle...