Thursday's Meetings Southwell A/W 7 Races 1:00-4:25p.m. Taunton N/H 8 Races 1:25-5:30p.m. Aintree N/H 7 Races 1:45-5:15p.m. Gowran(E) Flat 8 Races 4:00-7:35p.m. Chelmsford(E) A/W 7 Races 4:50-7:50p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Place a bet in the Virtual Betting shop here Good Luck
Aintree 16,05 Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase Cat Tiger 4/1 Second race after WS, won the previous one, yard on fire 12-35 in last 14 days.
1.45 SSS Super Alloys Manifesto Novices' Chase (Grade 1) This has been a Grade 1 since 2012 and in 11 runnings just 1 favourite has obliged - Captain Conan at odds of 6/5 in 2013. However, all 11 winners were in the first 3 in the betting so it is not a race that has thrown up big-priced winners. Here are all the stats (courtesy of thestatsdontlie.com) are: Age – 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6-8 Price – 1 of the last 11 favourites have won, 11/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting Last Run – 0 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before Aintree, 10/11 winners ran within the last 30 days 5/11 ran in the Arkle Novice Chase (Cheltenham) on their last run, 0 of the 5 won, 0 placed 5/11 ran in the Marsh Novices Chase (Cheltenham) on their last run, 0 of the 5 won, 2 placed Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree , 1/11 winners had a previous win at Aintree Previous Distance Form – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous run over 20/21 furlongs, 5/11 had at least 1 previous win over 20/21 furlongs Previous Hurdle Form – 10/11 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 10/11 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles Previous Chase Form – 10/11 winners had at least 4 chase runs, 10/11 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins Rating – 8/11 winners were rated 151 or higher Graded Wins – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race Season Form – 9/11 winners had at least 4 runs that season, 10/11 winners had at least 2 wins that season So forget anything which ran at Cheltenham, forget anything that won last time out and you are left with the two "P"s - Phoenix Way (discarded on ratings) and Protektorat (not in the first 3 in the betting). So nobody wins . Seriously though, I think the one stat that will be broken here is the "won last time" one as I really like Hitman for this and he meets most of the other stats (only 5 and might end up favourite though). He ran a cracking race in the Henry VIII at Sandown and, despite falling at the first railway fence in the Scilly Isles (over-jumped) his jumping has looked really solid to date. I think this will be run at a fast pace and Hitman's ability to travel and jump can see him take the opener. Protektorat would be the danger on stats, particularly if he is backed to within the top 3.
2.20 Doom Bar Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) Unlike the Manifesto, Cheltenham runners have a very good record in this with Pentland Hills, Defi Du Seuil and Zarkandar having doubled up in recent years whilst Apple's Jade, Guitar Pete, Grumeti and Walkon all placed in the Triumph and won this. The only candidate in the 6-runner field who ran in the Triumph is second-fav Adagio (15/8). Paul Nicholls unbeaten French import Monmiral heads the betting at a shade of odds on. 4 of the last 11 favourites have won. Here the trends for recent renewals: Price – 4 of the last 11 favourites have won, 7/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting Last Run – 4 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices Hurdle , 10/11 at least placed on their last run, 9/11 winners ran within the last 29 days 7/11 winners ran in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) on their last run, 3 of the 7 won, 4 placed Previous Course Form – 1/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 1/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree Previous Distance Form – 9/11 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 10/11 had at least 1 previous win over 15-17 furlongs Previous Hurdle Form – 9/11 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles, 9/11 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles, Rating – 8/11 winners were rated 143 or higher Graded Wins – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race Season Form – 9/11 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9/11 winners had at least 2 wins that season It is disappointing to see no Irish runner in this, given their strength in depth in the juvenile division. Consequently MPR can pick up some nice prize money for running two but this ought to revolve around the 2 market leaders. It is a classic Aintree clash - the battle-hardened Adagio who battled all the way up the hill in the Triumph and found only Quliixios too good, against the unexposed "could be anything" Monmiral who comes here a fresh horse. Monmiral could absolutely bolt up but I will stick with Adagio to outbattle him up the long Aintree straight.
2.50 Betway Bowl Chase (Grade 1) With the exception of Madison Du Berlais (12/1), Follow The Plan (50/1) and Tea For Two (10/1) this has gone to the fav or 2nd fav in recent years. Here the stats: Age – 9 of the last 11 winners were aged between 8 and 10 Price – 4 of the last 11 winners were favourites, 8/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting Last Run – 1/11 winners won on their last run before the Bowl Chase, 10/11 winners had their last run within the last 40 days 7/11 winners ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) on their last run, 0 of the 7 won, 1 placed Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree Previous Distance Form – 8/11 winners had at least 3 runs over 24 furlongs or further, 9/11 winners had at least 1 win over 24 furlongs or further Previous Chase Form – 9/11 winners had at least 9 previous chase runs, 9/11 winners had at least 4 previous chase wins Rating – 9/11 winners had a rating of 158 or higher Graded Wins – 11/11 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race, 9/11 had at least 2 wins in a grade 1-3 race, 9/11 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 race Season Form – 11/11 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9/11 winners had at least 1 win that season Interestingly, 7 of the last 11 winners had their previous run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and that would bring in Aso and Native River whilst Tiger Roll and Mister Fisher also ran at the festival. However the age stat does not favour the 11-year olds and I am just wondering whether the stars might finally align for Waiting Patiently. He ran an absolute belter in the King George over this trip and a reproduction of that could see him go very close. My ultimate cliff horse .
3.25 Betway Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) A very open-looking renewal so lets look at the trends to see if they throw anything up to help us: Age – 9 of the last 11 winners were aged between 6 and 8 Price – 3 of the last 11 favourites/joint favourites have won, 10/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting Last Run – 3 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Aintree Hurdle , 10/11 winners ran within the last 36 days 7/11 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle (Cheltenham) on their last run, 2 of the 7 won, 3 placed 3/11 winners ran in the Stayers Hurdle (Cheltenham) on their last run, 0 of the 3 won, 0 placed Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree Previous Distance Form – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous runs over 20 furlongs, 4/11 had at least 1 previous win over 20 furlongs Previous Hurdle Form – 8/11 winners had at least 10 runs over hurdles, 11/11 winners had at least 3 wins over hurdles, 10/11 winners had at least 4 wins over hurdles Rating – 10/11 winners were rated 159 or higher Grade 1 Wins – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1 race, 10/11 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race Season Form – 10/11 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9/11 winners had at least 1 win that season Well the only one who fits the rating trend of 158 or higher is Silver Streak. He ran in the 2019 edition of this (won by Supasundae) but that was very testing ground. This year's going should be much more to his liking and if Tom O'Brien can dictate a sensible pace from the front he ought to have every chance. Conversely Song For Someone might find the ground a little too lively over what is undoubtedly his optimum trip. My enthusiasm for him is tempered by his lacklustre display behind Goshen in the Kingwell where he never went a yard. Brewinupastorm and Mcfabulous were 1 and 2 in the National Spirit Hurdle but I would find it a tad disappointing if either were to prevail here. It is dangerous to ignore Nicky Henderson runners in Grade 1 hurdle races, especially when one of them is a dual Champion Hurdler, but it is difficult to see either being involved at the business end here. I see much more of a threat from the 2 Irish runners, Abacadabras and Jason The Militant, neither of whom have ever tried this trip but therefore look unexposed in the context of this race. Slight preference is for Abacadabras at this stage.
4.05 Rose Paterson Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase (National Course) Trends Age – 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 10 or older Price – 4 of the last 11 favourites/joint favourites have won, 6/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting Last Run – 4 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Rose Paterson Open Hunters Chase, 10/11 winners ran within the last 40 days 5/11 winners ran in the Hunters Chase (Cheltenham) on their last run, 2 of the 5 won, 1 placed Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree Previous Distance Form – 8/11 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 8/11 had at least 1 previous wins over 19-21 furlongs Previous Chase Form – 11/11 winners had at least 14 previous chase runs, 10/11 winners had at least 3 previous chase wins Rating – 8/11 winners were rated 126 or higher Graded Wins – 1/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race Season Form – 9/11 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/11 winners had at least 1 win that season Interestingly the age stat would rule out 4 of the most fancied runners in Billaway, Cat Tiger, Some Man and Latenightpass. Seven of those declared have experience over the National fences - Bishops Road, Federici, Greensalt, Killaro Boy, More Buck's, Sametegal and Ucello Conti - I think Sametegal and Killaro Boy might be the two from that list.
So since 2009 Led - 4 winners from 13 (6 places) Prominent - 6 winners from 27 (12 places) Held Up - 1 winner from 30 (6 places) This suggests that you want to be up with the pace or setting it, which would suggest that Eldorado Allen, Umbrigado, Phoenix Way all need looking at as they line up. I would expect the first two to be ridden patiently to pick up the pieces. 4 from 21 ran 15 to 21 days ago 4 from 23 ran 22 to 28 2 from 17 ran 29 to 42 1 from 9 - 43 days or more Suggests you want have run within the month. 0 from 16 won last time out. 3 from 13 finished 2nd 3 from 6 finished 5th! Key here is not winning last time out. 10 winners from 48 runners racing at Cheltenham last time out. Doncaster only other course with 1 from 2 runners. All points to Fusil Raffles doesn't it?
Pace 0-9 made the running 3 from 35 prominent 6 from 47 held up Fillies 2 from 8 Geldings 7 from 82 15-21 days 5 from 20 7 from 51 ran at Cheltenham LTO 1 each Musselburgh/Kempton 8 from 66 ran in non handicap last time All points to Adagio
6 from 19 led 4 from 45 prominent 5 from 43 held up 9 from 60 ran 15-21 days 3 from 21 ran 22-28 days 2 from 10 ran 29-42 1 from 19 over 42 12 from 86 ran at Cheltenham LTO 1 at Kempton/Leopardstown/Gowran 3 from 3 unseated rider LTO 2 from 14 won 3 from 14 finished 2nd 2 from 11 finished 4th All of which points at Native River and Tiger Roll. My money would be on the former for sure.
2 from 27 led 12 from 74 prominent 9 from 95 held up 13 from 100 22-28 days 2 from 10 150+ days 20 from 146 raced at Cheltenham LTO 15 from 115 ran over 16 furlongs LTO This makes the race interesting, you'd be swerving McFabulous and looking at something running prominently like Silver Streak. Not So Sleepy would be another interesting one.
5 from 36 led 12 from 134 prominent 6 from 376 held up!! 10 from 138 ran 15-21 days Cheltenham 9 from 91 Fontwell/Chepstow/Ludlow/Aintree all 2 6 others have 1 win 9 from 132 won LTO 5 from 73 2nd LTO 19 from 389 had no headgear 7 from 27 favourites 7 from 21 2nd faves 3 from 34 3rd faves So you want to be looking at the market, horses running prominent/lead. So that gives you the three market leaders, Billaway, Cat Tiger & Sametegal. The fact Billaway has no headgear makes him the one for me.
Nothing of any interest at Aintree so just used a £2 free bet that Skybet have given me on Brelan D'As at 40/1. £1 ew 6 places in the 4:40.
So Fusil Raffles for example, 6 year old, last run at Cheltenham in the JLT/Marsh. If you look at horses who don't wear headgear, come from a run in that race and are his age you get. 5 runners - 2 winners and 2 seconds and a third.
Away from Aintree, I hear this first time filly in France will run well... 1.20 Deauville-The Promise Each Way @ 10-1 [Paddy Power] 4 places