As usual I had a good long look at the bumper last night and it was my conclusion that L'INCORRIGIBLE was the one. Comes from a dam that has produced three winners including the smart Cosmeapolitan. One of her three winners won a bumper and taking into account yard bumper form, current form and track form then I feel the Tom Lacey horse is the most likely winner.
Henderson has the favourite but for me the flat pedigree looks like this one will struggle to see out the trip. I wonder if there is a back story to this one as I am surprised that it would have been purchased with bumpers in mind.
Alan King has a fine record in bumpers and at the track and he saddles two. Arkyn has had a run and I think will appreciate the softer ground. I prefer the pedigree of his other entry Perfect Predator but he doesnt strike me as one to be ready first time up.
A couple of interesting ones at bigger prices for small stakes EW players. Firstly, Noble Saffron (25/1)who shaped quite encouragingly on debut having being given a nice introductory ride. He could be ready to improve on his second start. The big negative is that the yard simply do not have bumper winners. The other one is the John Ryan trained Dont Think So (100/1). The yard dont often send horses out in bumpers but they have an excellent record when they do. It is quite eyecatching that they have booked Paddy Brennan for the ride. That said its debut run was simply awful so maybe Mr Ryan just likes getting good jockeys for his no hopers.
Conclusion; L'INCORRIGIBLE win
NOBLE SAFFRON small ew NON RUNNER
suspect that he's having extra lemon in his gin ......