Daily Racing Thread Thursday 29th. July 2021

Thursday's Meetings

Stratford
N/H 8 Races 1-00-5:00p.m.
Nottingham
Flat 7 Races 1:25-4:55p.m.
Glorious Goodwood
Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:20p.m.
Galway Festival(E)
N/H 8 Races 4:35-8:15p.m.
Epsom(E)
Flat 6 Races 6:00-8:35p.m.
Newcastle(E)
A/W 6 Races 6:25-8:55p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Sporting Life
Racing Post

Good Luck

 

Galway Hurdle

18,15 Annexation 14/1 e/w Sky seven places, PP and WH six

 

7.45 Galway-Eimear

Each Way @ 25-1 [Skybet] 6 places

Caught my eye in her last run

 

Been thinking about Ebro River for the Richmond since betting opened but decided to wait before playing. I was surprised they upped him to 6F for the Coventry, as he looked a 5F horse to me. Ran well for a long way in the Coventry and again in the July Stakes seemed to just find it too far.

If Ebro River is going to win over 6F then Goodwood might just be the place. I feel soft ground is an asset for him and I feel he can reverse form from Newmarket with favourite Asymmetric given the different ground and track this time. I am not seeing why the Palmer horse should be more than double the odds of the Meade colt.

Gubbass won the Super Sprint last time but this is tougher and he's an unknown on the surface. He could improve but needs to and is not a great price with a stone more probably required to bridge the gap to this level.

Perfect Power won the Norfolk last time but the form of that has been a bit mixed. This is an extra furlong today and also soft ground, compared to good to firm last time. He's a shade shorter than I feel the new factors should be allowing for.

I though Ebro River was the best value at 6/1. Hopefully he can be held up and delivered late to hit the line in front. Hugo Palmer is 7/23 for a shade over 30% strike rate.

2.25 Goodwood Ebro River 6/1

 

Been given Rufaafa 125 Nottingham tomorrow. He did tell me 2 weeks ago that she was working well at home, currently 3/1 as usual please don't shoot the messenger & GL if you play

 

The Gordon Stakes is tricky looking, with a few on recovery missions. Youth Spirit and Third Realm won Derby trials but did not fare so well in the race itself.

Wordsworth was third in the Irish Derby to Hurricane Lane but was a good way in arrears and again in the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud he was well behind the Godolphin colt when upgrading to a 2nd place in a race where the French challenge was embarrassingly pitiful yet again. Wordsworth seems to lack pace and a gruelling race on soft might help him. He's vying for favouritism here but I think he may be vulnerable to a finisher.

Yibir finally got his head in front last time but it wasn't a great contest. He has seemed to run disappointingly every time he has encountered soft and he has a 3 lb penalty here.

Youth Spirit also has the 3 lbs penalty and although you can often forgive a horse his Epsom effort, I thought it was as poor a Chester Vase that I can recall that Youth Spirit won. He won't mind the soft but I am not convinced his 111 rating is accurate.

Third Realm put in a strong looking run when accounting for Adayar in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Only Adayar has franked that form thus far but what a strong franking it has been. Third Realm didn't run to that level at Epsom, with Adayar turning around the form by twelve and a half lengths. He has form on soft though and if he bounces back I feel he is the one they have to beat as a colt who has defeated a two time group 1 winner but gets in without a penalty whereas other are penalised for having beaten much less talented rivals. Not great odds at 5/2 and I was looking for 3/1 but I feel he has to be the pick here.

3.00 Goodwood Third Realm 5/2

 

Gin On Lime runs again tomorrow (Galway 17,45). 3-3 over fences but this race is by far the toughest to date. We shall see. 9/4 now.

 

That looks a race that won't be hard to make a winning debut in. Dark Tulip looks poor value as favourite there. She ran OK on her second start but was poor last time and her OR is only 75. Not sure she wants 5F either.

Meredif is the interesting one for me. She was well backed to make a winning debut but finished only 9th of the ten runners. She took a false step and lost her action that day though and has been given a couple of months to get over that experience. I would like to see support for her in the morning to bolster confidence but feel it is worth the chance that they thought something of her and she just had a bad day at the office.

1.25 Nottingham Meredif 3/1

Good luck with your filly.

 

Stratford 2.10 Blue N Yellow

Has run well on second run after a break in 2019 (won) and 2020 (2nd). On a career-low mark and stable's last runner has won.

 

Stratford 3.55 Gaia Vallis

Backed this horse last time out when in with a chance of reaching a place at Uttoxeter but fell. Was supported in the market that day. David Bridgewater has won todays race 2 times in the last 10 runnings. Stable has a good each way record in handicap chases at Stratford over the last 5 seasons. First time headgear/tongue strap combo and Mitchell Bastyan taking off 3lb could eak out some improvement today.

 

Good morning all. 4 singles and a little ew acca for me at Goodwood today.
1.50 King Frankel win
2.25 Ebro River win
4.10 Already Gone ew
4.45 Wilderness Girl win
Have a good day all and good luck with yours

 

My TV picks today:

King Frankel - Will enjoy the ground and as long as he settles today should go close.
Caturra - Should have won last race by a wider margin but for hanging left on the run-in. Improvement to come from the trainer who has won this the last twice.
Third Realm - His defeat of Adayar on soft ground makes him the one to beat.
Joan Of Arc - If the rain had have come down again, I would have went for Empress Josephine.
Robasta - 3lb rise looks lenient for his last win and the extra furlong will hopefully bring out even more improvement. I like Baldings other horse in the race (Aldbourne) so rfc

 

Agree with most selections on here today.

The Nassau Stakes looks wide open though - tentative selection for LADY BOWTHORPE who has some good formlines and came very close at Newmarket.
Would be a deserved win.

Third Realm will probably win the 3.00 but I am also having an each way bet on the progressive YIBIR

ADJUVANT looks to be a worth favourite in the 4.10 with form boosted this week

 

Absolutely shocking, drift out to 4s but high draw needed in my opinion although dark tulip switched straight across to the rail from stall 1 and that is definitely where the better ground is.
Rest of the card high draw may be the way to go

 

One of those annoying scenarios with taking on a short fav who then drifts and wins at a more backable price. Dark Tulip and Meredif flip-flopped in prices 7/4 to 11/1 and 3/1 to 7/4. Always nice to see support for your selection but Meredif couldn't quite get there. She was still pretty green and jigging about but did come there with every chance but just didn't run a polished enough race to win. Not a bad effort at all in 4th, beaten about a length and she can win a race I feel.

The jockey's 3 lb claim on Dark Tulip seemed key, as she prevailed by a neck and a short head. Hard to think it was a good maiden with a 75 rated filly landing it. The Hills newcomer faded very disappointingly and may be headed down the three runs and a nursery path.

 

17:20 Goodwood - A Pint Of Bear

(This quaintly-named sprinter has a squeak in this 5f sprint finale at Goodwood. Selection has won three times on soft ground over 5f, and once on the AW at this distance. Don't know a thing about sire Koo Bear (think he's American-bred) but the damsire, Dark Angel, certainly gets his share of winners on softish ground. 5lb. claimer Kieran Schofield takes the ride for trainer Scott Dixon. Price generally-available at time of writing is 11/1.)

Now to watch all the other races on TV, with a pint or two of real beer, Tegernseer 'Spezial'!

 

Two more each ways for fun in Galway - at least one place yesterday which meant a return
Tudor City - 6.15 - hate backing Tony Martin but this should have a squeek
Vocarium - 6.45