Thursday 26 January Daily Thread

Putting this up now for the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park tomorrow as I don't know how long the price is going to be around for.

3.05 Gowran Park

Bob Lingo 33/1

Really like the look of Thomas Mullins 10 year old who looks to have an absolutely cracking chance in my opinion tomorrow. Bob Lingo is a rather lightly raced horse since making his debut in late 2007 with only 22 completed starts to date. He looks potentially very nicely treated by the handicapper on the basis of some of his form from last year. On New Years Day 2011, Bob Lingo landed a Beginners Chase at Fairyhouse by 20L and the form of that race looks pretty strong. The 2nd that day Time Electric had finished 2.5L behind the excellent Quito De La Roque in a similar event 15 days prior to that and the 3rd Sam Adams, who finished a further 0.5L behind, won his next start in a similar event and is now a 137 rated horse over fences.

After a very good 11L 2nd behind subsequent Group 3 winning and 149 rated chaser Roi Du Mee after this, Bob Lingo put in 3 consecutive bad performances before being switched back to hurdles to perhaps regain his confidence. After a few poor performances over the smaller obstacles, he seemed to be getting back to his best the last 2 starts, the latter back chasing. LTO he put in a very good effort in the Grade B Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas when finishing an 8.75L beaten 9th off a mark of 130 but I think this was an excellent effort, especially on ground that was probably unsuitable (Good to Yielding). After customarily taking up the running from a long way out, Bob Lingo was lying 2nd turning into the home straight and 4th after jumping the final flight before the ground probably took its toll.

With all his best form over soft/heavy ground, I am glad to see that Bob Lingo will get this sort of ground tomorrow which should suit a lot more. On the basis of his form as a 9 year old, I think Bob Lingo looks quite nicely handicapped off 129 and should for his 2nd start in this discipline after a 7 month break. Mark Walsh takes the ride tomorrow after riding one of the more 'fancied' JP McManus horses in the Paddy Power Chase but he's partnered Bob Lingo several times before, including to his 20L victory, so it looks a positive booking. Trainer Thomas Mullins had a winner 10 days ago from his small string and so he looks to have his horses in fine form. If the softer ground brings about improvement then I think the 33/1 currently on offer could be made to look very foolish by tomorrow and I think a positive bid from the front could see the lightly raced Bob Lingo go very close.

 

The opening race at Warwick tomorrow at 1.25 has two interesting ex inmates of Mark Johnson's. What makes them even more interesting is that one has infinitely more ability than the other but is likely to be available at bigger odds purely because of the yards they have joined.
It's likely that the one that has joined Nicky Henderson, Black Pond, will be put in somewhere near to favourtism but the John Ferguson trained horse,SHALLOON has shown much more ability and looks to be an ideal type to go juvenile hurdling with. He is a very likeable sort and I think he can make a big impact, starting tomorrow!

 

2.45 Fabalu - 10/1

Drifted before his return and ran well for a long way before tiring and finishing last of 4, he should be primed for this race now and I think with the help he has got from the handicapper, we can see him return to form here. I think Eyre Square is a slow slogger whilst the other market principles are untried in these conditions, therefore setting the race up for Fabalu at good double figure odds. He will string these out like the washing.

 

It's all about Gowran Park tomorrow.

1.05 In Bloom

Get's quite a bit of weight from all but Willie's. It's debut win is working out fairly well. I don't think this should be the outsider of five and is worth a little tickle. Improvement likely.

1.35 Zaidpour

6/4 is too big even if VLV has got the form in the book. There's been no more visually impressive horse in Ireland this year. He's got to be considered an improver even now and if the strength of last years Supreme is to be believed then he could easily end the season a good 10lbs higher than his current rating.

 

I can't see Zaidpour giving Voler La Vedette 7 lbs. Mourad couldn't give her 5 lbs and there aren't many better 3 milers than him around- when he's lost it's either Big Bucks,Thousand Stars , or Quevega who's beaten him. Zaidpour would need to be at least 14lbs+ better than last year to defeat VLV, IMO.
Even money on the mare is good value.

 

Recent quote about Fabalu 18th Jan-

Fabalu has to prove himself before being considered for this year’s John Smith’s Grand National but the 10-year-old will be given an entry by McCain who said: “Fabalu is a horse who I have always felt would make a Grand National horse.

“He ran very well in the four-miler at Cheltenham (sixth in March, 2010). We had a couple of setbacks last season which stopped him running in two Becher Chases at Aintree to be honest.

“He has a way to go - he needed his run at Ffos Las badly last month and will need to win a race or two to be able to get a run in the John Smith’s Grand National.

“If he did go to Aintree, I really think he will take to the place. He is a very neat, good jumper. He is in at Haydock at the weekend and could possibly go there or else he will be out next week.

 

He's a she and she's 4/7 not evens... everywhere

 

He is at least 14lbs better than last year. 142 in the Supreme when not even close to being 100% right. 157 as of the Tara Hurdle.

 

I am with Quel I think Zaidpour can take it. I see him running a place in the world hurdle as well

 

Quelesprit, don't be picky- I did refer to VLV as a female(see my comment) - one of us will be right tomorrow.

 

1.55 Warwick

Inga Bird 11/2

Really like the look of Henry Daly's 7 year old who is unexposed on the whole, especially as a staying chaser which he seems to relish. After coming 2nd in a bumper on debut in December 2009, Inga Bird made no mistake on his next start when landing a similar event beating the now 123 rated hurdler Mr Jay Dee by 1.5L off level weights. After this he began his hurdling career and put up an excellent debut effort in this sphere when going down by 1.5L 3rd to Kauto The Roc, with the front 2 already holding vast experiences over hurdles and the front 3 drew miles clear of the remainder. The winner that day is now a 123 rated chaser so the form of that race isn't bad at all. After this, Inga Bird went off the boil a bit getting well beaten on his next 3 starts and despite putting up a better performance when a 15L beaten 2nd on his final start of hurdles after an 8 month break in November, he seems to have really excelled over the larger obstacles.

Inga Bird made a successful chasing debut last month when landing a Class 4 handicap chase at Huntingdon over 3m, with the step up in trip bringing about a lot of improvement off a mark of 104. After making most of the running, he was cajoled along for the last few furlongs and was incredibly game in a battle to hold on grimly at the line. The form of that race is working out quite nicely with the neck beaten 2nd winning on his next start in a higher class 3 handicap off a 5lb higher mark, so the form of this race looks very solid. LTO off a mark of 110 Inga Bird put in another very good effort when looking booked for 3rd before falling at the last at tomorrows track over 1.5f shorter. The form of this race from New Years Eve looks solid too.

The head beaten 2nd in that race Glens Boy, who was 9L clear of 3rd which would have been a similar margin for Inga Bird, won on his only subsequent start in a higher Class 3 off a 9lb higher mark. The 4th from this race Causing Chaos won on his only subsequent start also in the same grade off a 2lb lower mark by 2.5L which solidifies the form.

Inga Bird has had nearly a month off to recover from his fall and races here off the same mark of 110 and based on his previous exploits I really don't think this mark is beyond him. Henry Daly's charge looks like he'll improve again for the step up in trip and remains in a Class 4 (same as last 7 races). Richard Johnson is a very eye catching jockey booking and takes over from claimer Jake Greenhall who has been on board for every other start. Daly and Johnson are regular partners and have a good strike rate together whilst the trainer has a 20% chasing strike rate at the track. With conditions looking ideal and the trainer in fine form at present, if recovering from his fall last month I really think Inga Bird looks to have a lot in his favour today and could prove to be very difficult to beat.

 

In the last at Gowran Park if Moscow Mannon opens up at his forecast price of 11/2 I'm going in big (although I'll be surprised if he's any bigger than 2s). On his last start he beat Joxer by 4.5L who has since come 2nd to Midnight Game (who has since beaten the 142 rated 0.5L beaten Grade 1 2nd Dylan Ross) on his hurdling debut. On Joxer's 2nd hurdling start he beat Allure of Illusion who came 3rd in a Grade 2 at Aintree behind the extremely talented Steps to Freedom and Montbazon with Joxer and Allure of Illusion drawing 20L clear. Although likely favourite Morning Royalty was very visually impressive there is no form available from that race. Jockey Declan Lavery rides out for Willie Mullins and has said that Moscow Mannon is as good as any horse there too. I'll see what price he opens at and will update what my decision is then.

 

Good morning horse pickers, and Richard lickers, I am making some calculations and my scientific appraisal of todays card will appear here shortly, winners will abound I feel sure, so calm your impatience. Winners coming soon.

 

Your having a laff Bob Lingo couldn't win if it set off today, What planet are you from Roto?

 

What other kind of impressive is there "impressive audibly" ?

 

I heard it jump the third, it sounded just like a Golf.