Table from 3rd through to 10th at this stage last season: P GD Pts PPG 3 Cardiff City 39 +17 66 1.69 4 Swansea City 39 +16 66 1.69 5 Leeds United 39 +12 64 1.64 6 Reading 38 +20 60 1.58 7 Nottingham Forest 39 +10 60 1.54 8 Millwall 39 +12 57 1.46 9 Burnley 38 +6 57 1.5 10 Watford 39 +12 56 1.44 vs now: P GD Pts PPG 3 West Ham United 38 +21 69 1.82 4 Brighton and Hove A 39 +8 62 1.59 5 Middlesbrough 38 +3 61 1.61 6 Blackpool 39 +10 60 1.54 7 Birmingham City 37 +19 59 1.59 8 Cardiff City 38 +7 59 1.55 9 Hull City 38 +6 58 1.53 10 Leeds United 39 +2 57 1.46 4th and 5th had higher points totals by 4 and 3 respectively this stage last season. 6th is no better, 7th had 1 point more, 8th 2 points fewer, and 9th and 10th 1 point fewer. Comparison of points for each position: Position Last Season This Season Difference 3 66 69 +3 4 66 62 -4 5 64 61 -3 6 60 60 0 7 60 59 -1 8 57 59 +2 9 57 58 +1 10 56 57 +1 Comparison of averages: Last Season This Season Difference Points totals 60.75 60.625 -0.125 Points per game 1.5675 1.58625 +0.01875 This all points to the 75 point goal to get into the playoffs, with similar circumstances pointing towards teams finishing on similar totals. If, however, you take out 3rd place, which in this season is a bit of an anomaly in terms of these stats (West ham at 69, 7 points ahead of 4th), the stats look somewhat different: Averages: Last Season This Season Difference Points totals 60 59.43 -0.57 Points per game 1.55 1.553 +0.003 Average points totals are down somewhat, and as we know points on the board are always better than games in hand. It still suggests a relatively high points total required to get into the playoffs, but considering how many teams are fighting to get in there and how many are slipping up, I can see it being a little less, around the 73-74 mark. Thoughts?
yea I'd agree with that points total, I still can't see us doing anything. As I said we needed to win the West Ham game for us to be within a chance and we didn't only not win that game we got smashed the following game. It'll take something special now to get in there
it'll take winning all 7 of our remaining games to guarantee it, but we could do it with 6 wins and a draw. Stranger things have happened.
I rest my case, Cardiff and Birmingham heading towards a 0-0 draw. That's ideal for us, both playoff chasers dropping 2 points, makes them both significantly easier to catch.
Miracle of biblical proportions needed to make the playoffs. Too few games. Too big of a gap between us and 6th place team. A number of teams above and below us have a game or two in hand. To expect us to go on the required run at this point in time just is not realistic. Miracle of biblical proportiions.
No point in comparing it to last season. Every single team has changed and there are 6 completely new sides in the league. Managers, Owners, Players, Coaches.... they all change.
Exaggeration for emphasis Jonny? In other words it might be a little difficult to go on a run at this late stage- but not impossible.
There are twists and turns to come. The teams sitting in the playoff places have more games against the top six than those just outside. West Ham have Reading-h, Birmingham-h and Brighton-h. Brighton have West Ham-a, Middlesborough-h, Reading-h and Birmingham-h. Middlesborough have Brighton-a and Southampton-h. Birmingham have West Ham-a, Brighton-a and Reading-a.
Hull's game in hand is away at Pompey on Tuesday, Brum have 8 games left to play with 5 of them away so hopefully they will burnout after a long season and Boro are at Ipswich on Tuesday and also have 5 away and 3 at home (though they are much better away than at home). Blackpool haven't had a clean sheet in the league since Jan 2nd and both Cardiff and Boro are 4 without a win. Leicester could go above us on Tuesday though by beating Forest at home and they have some favourable fixtures left so it will be very interesting.
Nope. Millwall and Ipswich away have always been tough games. Nobody knows what happens when we play Posh. The only two that i'd put any money on are the two home games.
Completely irrelevant to what is mathematically possible in terms of points totals at the end of the season. Thanks for contributing nothing as usual.
Oh so you are one of those who thinks that 'because you required x amount of points last season then thats what you'll need this season'. Like I said, no season is the same. There are a hell of a lot more teams going for Play-Offs this season and there is no runaway leader. There is no point in comparing it to last season.
...that's bollocks. The number of teams going for it means the points are spread more thinly, meaning likely to take fewer points to get there, but it'll be more difficult to get those points. There are a limited number of points in a season you know... maximum number of points available is 1656. Every draw reduces that number and the way teams are going with draws all over the shop, it's likely to take fewer points. Your "every season is different" is a lazy man's excuse for not looking at the facts.
LIE, a hugely unlikley combination of Leeds United having a phenomenol run in 6 or 7 games when we have not had a run of 3 winning games all season (2 only 3 times) , together with so many teams above and below us needing to crumble makes it almost impossible. So, no. No exaggeration.
I understand what AKCJ is saying and he has actually come here discussing what is possible and not for a lazy WUM so I don't know why you are giving that reaction Marko, although normally I'd be on your side. I still cannot believe how close we are after being through such a bad run and I think any sort of string of results can get us into that top 6 in truth, its just keeping it once we are there, I really cannot whatsoever see us winning the Reading game (which by the way is on TV in Australia, not sure whether it is in England but that means you can watch it on the internet if it isn't) but the rest are all winnable games, that points total may be a little lower than it has been previously but I think thats because teams this season aren't really good enough. If we go up I do think it'll be an injustice as we really do not deserve it, however not that I wouldn't take it. Can you seriously see Leeds winning 3 games in a row let alone the required amount?
Jonny I guess you're right when you compare Leeds United having a phenomenal run of six or seven games to a miracle of biblical proportions- no exaggeration at all. In fact turning water into wine is nothing in comparison! You never know though, a win against Watford followed by somehow scraping a win at Reading could see us no more than a point off 6th with five games remaining. Stranger things have happened.