Hi all, Hopefully this takes off, but on the run up to the spring festivals, I thought a recap thread per week would be good. The idea being that we can have conversations about the big races, market movers and racing of the last week and people can put up their eyecatchers or questions for others on the forum. If I don't start a thread on a Sunday evening, please don't let that stop people from doing so!! I might be busy etc. So the last week - Review We had the big meetings in Ireland on Monday, with the Christmas Hurdle being won by Flooring Porter who made all from the staying on The Storyteller and the disappointing pair of Sire Du Berlais and Fury Road in behind. This shook up the Stayers Hurdle market with Sire Du Berlais out to 10/1 with Flooring Porter in to 12/1 and Fury Road the big drifter to 20/1. The market told in that race for me, with Sire Du Berlais drifting throughout the day and running like he needed the race. I am still happy to have him on my side for the Stayers Hurdle, but he has to improve markedly to match the form of Paisley Park and Thyme Hill. We then had a great renewal of the Savills Chase, where Melon and Kemboy had a right old fight, before leaving the door open for A Plus Tard to run them down in the shadows of the post. This race was as much about the fallers though with Delta Work and Minella Indo both failing to complete. It was surprising to see A Plus Tard finish so strongly, with his best form over shorter in the past, but he relished the finish here and that has seen him put in at 12/1 for the Gold Cup. I am surprised at the short price to be honest and whilst he is a very good horse, I would see others being stronger in a finish in the Gold Cup. Kemboy is available at 25/1 which seems a more realistic price, but he hasn't been good enough in recent renewals and again I think he is likely to finish well beaten. Melon is available at 33/1 but surely its more of a run in the Ryanair (12/1) for him? We also got to see The Big Getaway get off the mark over fences in a good style, he is interesting for the Dublin Racing Festival and is one staying novice that I am interested in for the future. Tuesday we saw Concertista continue her great form, winning nicely in a Grade 3 for Mares. She is a talented mare who should test Honeysuckle at the festival in the Mares Hurdle (7/2). We saw Monkfish confirm his ability and aptitude for chasing with a nice win over Latest Exhibition. They pulled well clear of the rest and both are to the fore of the RSA betting at 9/4 and 10/1 respectively. You would be hard pushed to suggest that the latter should be reversing the form. Grand Roi won the Grade 2 hurdle on the same day, not sure what the form is worth but good to see them getting a small return on investment. Any ideas how good he is? In the UK we had the Challow Hurdle, which is normally a battle of attrition, but this year we saw Bravemansgame bound away from Star Gate and The Glancing Queen in what I thought was a very impressive performance. Paul Nicholls was quick to draw comparisons to the great (but not Kauto Star Great) Denman in his post race interviews, which shows the esteem he holds this horse in! He is 16/1 for the Potato Race and 5/1 for the Ballymore, which would be the race I would want to see him in. If Appreciate It doesn't run (Supreme could be the target) then it would be down to Bob Olinger to probably be his biggest opponent if betting is to be believed. Given the weather, we had a mediocre new year, with no Cheltenham, so the Dipper and Relkeel get run next weekend on what looks a super Saturday. Then yesterday we had the Tolworth Hurdle, and another impressive winner in Metier who showed that hurdling was his metíer. He pulled 12 lengths clear of the front running Shakem Up'Arry (hope Harry didn't burn his crumpets over this one) and showed himself as a very interesting prospect for the Supreme Hurdle. Personally I am not as overwhelmed by his run as I was with Bravemansgame, I don't think he beat as nice a field and I think he possibly is overrated by the winning distance. However bookmakers disagree and have shortened him into 7/1 for the Supreme. It looks as if he has Appreciate It to beat in that race, and his trainer mooted that he might go for the Betfair Hurdle next if the handicapper doesn't clobber him too much for this win. My eyecatcher of the week is a horse that was beaten by Paint The Dream under an enterprising ride by Connor Brace. The horse in question was Sevarano who made a nasty mistake at the first fence and still ran a good solid race to finish 11 lengths 4th. He jumped with little confidence after the mistake and was given a lovely ride by Brendan Powell to get around and to finish 4th. He showed enough to suggest that he would be no forlorn hope next time. Finally, wanted to flag up the sad loss of Zoe Davison today from Cancer. She is a well regarded and popular trainer, and on the day of her death she trained a double. The quotes on the Racing Post story are really sad to read - https://www.racingpost.com/news/lat...r-poignant-winner-for-zoe-davison-yard/466445 Racing is a community, and the outpouring of emotions about her sad death is apparent in that article. Hopefully her family continue her legacy and get all the support they need. Please add to the thread - views on any of the above or anything I might have missed. Please also add in any talking points you may have and lets see if we can make an interesting racing discussion!
The racing over the festive period was top class as usual and it is hard to know where to start. Whilst Willie Mullins could seemingly do no wrong over in Ireland, Nicky Henderson has had a rotten few weeks. I'm not sure whether the yard is under a cloud, or the great man himself, but ever since he pulled Altior from the Tingle Creek (and the media fallout) all has not seemed well at Seven Barrows. Defeat for both Epatante and Altior at Kempton will have been a major blow for the yard and Shishkin's rather laboured performance (until the last half mile) adds to the impression of a yard struggling for form. The most exhilarating performance I saw was Paint The Dream at Newbury - his bold, attacking front-running performance really was a pleasure to watch. He may well have taken a few of the others by surprise and I think Nass is right to pick out Severano from the beaten horses but I would also add Dickie Diver - given the form of the yard and a far too patient ride he did well to finish 2nd and will undoubtedly go on to better things. Another beaten horse I would want to keep on the right side of is Galice Macalo from the Tolworth. She pulled far too hard for her own good in the first half of the race and had nothing left to offer at the busness end. If they can get her to settle better (maybe in a bigger field, with a stronger pace or even headgear) she could win nice races. The two big staying chases both contrived to both thrill and disappoint - awesome to see Bryony and Frodon winning at Kempton yet frustrating that so few of them got into it (and also that Brian Hughes didn't ride Waiting Paitently with more confidence in him seeing out the trip). Similarly the Savills Chase was a three horse affair from a fair way out and the one you would probably take from it would be Melon - but his performance screamed Ryanair to me rather than Gold Cup. A Plus Tard came with a fine late rattle and of course has Cheltenham Festival form so he did enhance his Gold Cup prospects. Despite Epatante's defeat at Kempton (which I will put down to yard form and maybe a sniffle or two) it is difficult to see anything beaten her come March. Certainly Abacadabras has not progressed from last season and perhaps the strongest Irish challenge this time around will come from the bold front-runner Aspire Tower. Patrick Mullins will be thinking long and hard about what he could do different on Sharjah this time around but Epatante beat him fair and square in the 2020 renewal. One thing that was very clear in Ireland is that Gigginstown scaling back their operations is (a) not yet really visible and (b) allowing other wealthy owners (Noel Moran and Joe Donnelly to name but two) to keep the boxes at Closutton and Cullentra House well and truly filled. It seems like every week we see a top bumper prospect or juvenile hurdler making their debut for one of these two yards. Whilst we are on owners, lets not forget Rich Ricci. With Chacun Pour Soi and Monkfish both underlining their Cheltenham credentials it might have been easy to overlook the 6 year old Royale Pagaille winning for Venetia Williams in the famous pink and green silks at Kempton off a mark of 140. is this a long-term project which might culminate at Aintree in 2022 or 2023?
Glad you mentioned the farce that is Nicky Henderson and Kempton, I am very outspoken about him and his management of Altior on Twitter. To me, I have major questions on the running of Epatante and also Altior. The former didn't look settled in the preliminaries and she pulled for her head in the first stages of the race. It looked like one of those runs you can sometimes get with mares, where they aren't happy and their minds aren't on the job. They thought she might be in season, which could potentially explain her errantness. Now Altior, he was scrubbed along very early and he just couldn't sit up with the pace. In his pomp he would have won that race by a relatively easy five lengths at least, and whilst we know he is getting on, we simply do not know how much of his ability remains. The reason? Because he is wrapped up in so much cottonwool that we never see him! The Sandown fiasco tipped me over the edge with Henderson, there was nothing wrong with the ground that day, and clearly he wasn't ready for the race. He would have been slaughtered that day and major questions would have been asked. Instead he got beat by Nube Negra. Nube Negra for goodness sake!! Then he comes out and says he had a bad scope and needed further tests. Anyone heard anything from the further tests? I seriously doubt it!! The man is losing the plot, he wraps his horses in cotton wool, and we aren't getting to see the stars very often outside of the festival. The ones we do get to see, we always get an excuse if they are beaten. How about him coming out and saying for example - "Silver Streak was brilliant and Epatante couldn't go with him" "Altior isn't the horse he was, and the form shows this" I am glad you mentioned the Venetia trained horse. I think it could have an outside chance in the NH Chase, where it possibly could come up against a certain Paint The Dream.
Just supposing Henderson was getting close to calling it a day - who might take over at Seven Barrows? I have no idea whether he wants to move into training but Mick Fitzgerald certainly knows his horses. If he were bankrolled by JP he'd make a good go of it I reckon. I don't think McCoy is interested - if he were he would have just gone straight on and done it rather than fannying about in the media. Or is Henderson likely to keep going until he keels over? I must pull you up slightly on Nube Negra - whilest he clearly isn't the next Sprinter Sacre he did travel beautifully into the race and if Altior and Chacun Pour Soi both fail to turn up / give their running he might be an interesting e/w alternative. Be interesting to see what the official handicapper makes of him but he got an RPR of 170 for Kempton (God I sound like Grendel). I think Nube Negra ran somewhere in the low 160s so he hasn't got massive amounts to find to run into a place given it was only his 5th start over fences. I also have a soft spot for the Skeltons so there you go.
I am not buying that at all, typical of the RP to overrate a horse by not wanting to offend another ones ratings. There is no way on earth that Altior ran to 170, even on their inflated RPRs which is the same mark that they gave Shiskin earlier in the card. They are basically saying that Nube Negra has improved a stone on all known form. It just isn't likely, or true! I quite like NN, I thought he had a good chance last year of winning the Henry 8th, but as with all of his runs over fences, he ran to a slightly below top quality. That race hasn't worked out well, and neither will this. Perhaps of more interest in the time comparisons with Shiskin, who Timeform have noted ran the final half mile much faster than Nube Negra and he put up a much superior performance. I'd be very happy to take Nube Negra on in any Grade 1 chase, especially if he is a single figure price.
Hmm interesting - but NN was still hacking 2 out and Skelton was hardly all out on him up to the line. I'll need to re-watch the races with that info as hindsight. NN best price 12/1 for the Champion Chase which doesn't appeal. I'd be interested e/w at 20s.
Nube Negra is a fascinating horse on breeding, his sire now stands in France for 1500 euros, and in the UK he has only had one other runner. Nube Negra has certainly done him proud and now has over 100k in prize money! My issue Oddy is that is it likely that after 14 runs (all pretty consistent) he has improved a stone or more in one effort? I think it was just one of those races where it went right for him and he picked up the pieces after DDG faltered and Altior paid the price for being off the bridle since leaving Seven Barrows that morning. Such a shame that Sceau Royal fell, he is usually a solid yardstick to read the form. I hope he goes for the Clarence House, it would be good to see a competitive race in Grade 1 company.
Actually cancel that, the Clarence House is an early declaration race and he isn't entered. It looks a penalty kick for Politilogue unless Defi can turn up in his A game.
Very good review of the week. However the big story of the week for me was the fact that Al Blum Photo made a pleasing reappearance in Ireland on New Years Day and with potential rivals failing earlier in the week he is now a clear favourite to win 3 consecutive Gold Cups in March, and emulate Best Mate.
Problem with that race was that it fell apart even more early in the race, which makes it hard to judge. We know he is well and he jumped around!
that’s good enough for me! Win bet for me with an each way interest on Frodon the way to go for the Gold Cup.
I’ve just discovered this Forum and what a find!! Excellent thread this- I will read it again in more detail and digest! One that caught my eye on Saturday was Paddy’s Poem. The Gifford horse running for the first time in over a year over 2 miles at Sandown on going that the trainer said was too soft for him. He ran a blinder and was just collared by Ibleo after the last fence. Granted Ibleo coasted up and was always going to win. In an interview BEFORE the race Gifford said “ he might be a bit too keen, he might get tired, but he hasn’t been trained for this race. There will be another race for him on better ground” ( or words to that effect.) Based on that he is certainly one to look out for over the next few weeks! Good Luck all!
Yes, it was the first time he ran in class 2. I put him on the Saturday thread. Honestly, I was already counting my money when Ibleo arrived and beat him.
It was a shame he couldn’t hold on - but there again as the trainer had said he wasn’t prepared for that race I was still impressed. I got 16-1 and had him each way. I also had him in an each way Patent with Do Your Job and Guard your Dreams but Do Your Job let me down.
Now then Nass - the handicapper has given Metier a rating of 149 and Harry Fry has put him in the Betfair Hurdle. Chances? Also Royal Pagaille up 14lbs to 154 - talk of them going for another handicap like the Peter Marsh next and at the festival anything from the RSA to the Gold Cup or the 4-miler. His mark feels a bit high for the Ultima now though - something like the mark Bensalem won off I think?
