The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 2019

I have Laurina 12/1 since April last year. We'll see if she runs here.

 

I must say that if someone held a gun to my head, although I’m sure that no-one would ever want to do that, and asked me to name the most likeliest winner of this race, at the moment, I’d respond Laurina. I just don’t think that any of the old boy geldings are capable of conceeding 7 lbs to her.

 

If I was given a fiver to throw at this race I’d be looking at Silver Streak EE at 50/1. Rates very similarly to Brain Power and Verdana Blue and I think in a decent sized field he will get the race run to suit his style (which would be my worry with Brain Power). I can see him running really well in the Champion Hurdle

 

I wonder for how long the 'Will she won't she' saga be played out by the Mullins brigade in the run up to the race 're Laurinas participation? I reckon right up to one or two days before.. something to look forward to eh?

 

Same here, which means if you've any sense you'll keep your fiver in your pocket!

 

The Laurina Mares v Champion will dominate the race build up and many a preview night. My own take on race:-

Buveur D'air - most likely winner but can't help that nagging doubt of vulnerability this year.

Laurina: The question of how good is she really will dominate preview nights all across the land . Personally I don't think we have enough evidence to make an opinion.

Melon: Poor strike rate but still open to improvement. Probably being aimed at one race and one race only and I think the best might still be to come.

I can't have anything else winning the race myself.

 

I m pretty certain Silver Streak won't be running in the champion hurdle from what I read...

 

My initial feeling on this race was Melon. Almost got up to win last year but seems to keep getting hampered and beaten. Laurina could lead them a merry dance. We just don't how comfortable she will be going a faster pace. She's had it all her own way so far and been able to win without being extended which makes her so difficult to assess. She could be the easiest winner for years, or find this step up in class beyond her. If we are looking at Laurina we need to have a good look at Apple's Jade; she should certainly be staying on up the hill. Dutching the 2 mares only offers just over 2/1 and I wouldn't risk the fav at such skinny odds so it's a watch with great interest for me. Should be a good race.

 

What have you read Captain? From what I've seen reported the trainer says he'll go to the Champion Hurdle. I can't see how his loss on Saturday would alter the trainers view. Ground was too soft and he made an awful blunder 3 out but still showed his mettle by sticking on. I'd still have him in the first 4 given good to soft ground and the stiff finish on 12th March.

 

Evan williams after his run on Saturday stated ""We'll aim for the Kingwell. I don't think we'll do both. We're not good enough and we don't jump well enough to run in a Champion Hurdle at this stage". He is being left in the champion hurdle in case it massively cuts up but if BVD, Laurina and Melon turn up and/or any number of these turn up he won't run.

 

Hopefully you didn't have an ante post bet on him Nass.. almost certain to not be running.!

 

Certainly didn’t, as I solid, someone would have to give me the money. Currently the whole festival is a wait and see for me.

 

Connections are said to be reluctant to take on Buveur D'air in the Champion Hurdle. The trainer said that he wasn't fussed if the horse went to Cheltenham or not this year. He mooted Aintree or Fairyhouse at Easter as other options. You would think JP would be leaving the way for Buveur D'air to have his chance at the treble. Plenty time for Espoir D'Allen to have a crack at the big one.

Laurina does not line up in the Irish Champion Hurdle and one has to wonder if they felt she could not cope with Apples Jade? Despite this being the first time Apples Jade has dropped to 2 miles since the Fighting Fifth in 2016, where she was runner up to the inconsistent Irving, she is a warm favourite to win the race at 5/4. Gordon Elliott has said Apples Jade probably goes to the Mares race but would a good win in the Irish version change his mind?

Laurina looks terrible value at 4/1 and Apples Jade appeals much more to me at 6/1 NRNB of the two. From my own point of view I am on Buveur D'air at various odds so I took Apples Jade at 14/1 without the NRNB, to have a saver for a smaller outlay.

Melon is in the Irish Champion Hurdle and he really needs to be winning it nicely to set himself up as a realistic challenger. He has never really matched his good effort in last year's Champion Hurdle and I just wonder if he's quite good enough. If he can't beat Apples Jade at 2 miles then he's got a hell of a lot to prove at Cheltenham. Supasundae is shading second favourite from Melon in some lists and he's been very consistent at a variety of trips since winning the Aintree Bumper from Yanworth back in the day. He's 9 now though and seems better at a bit further than 2 miles. He has tended to finish behind Apples Jade but may get closer at this trip than when they met over 2 and a half miles last time. Getting the 7 lbs, Apples Jade has every chance of giving her trainer something to ponder regarding her Cheltenham target.

Buveur D'air is entered this weekend but it looks like there is a strong possibility Sandown may fall foul of the weather. It is unlikely we would have learned much anyway with a general 1/8 price in the ante-post book for the race. He looks the most likely winner of the Champion Hurdle and 6/4 is still value in my mind. Come Monday there will be defeats dealt one way or another and if Apples Jade is the one that hands out beatings to Melon et al, her 14/1 odds will surely have vanished.

Buveur D'air (Various prices) and Apples Jade 14/1 (Saver) are my only plays here.

 

Im sure that losing at Kempton is better for your chances of winning this historically, if you read into trends.

Buveur Dair is the banker of the meeting for me, I predicted he would win 3 Champion Hurdles and everything appears to be in place for him to achieve it, best jumper of a hurdle since Binocular, best hurdler since Istabraq.

 

I keep reading about Buveur D'air being the best hurdler around and that is not something that I would disagree with at all. I just don't think he will beat Laurina in the Champion Hurdle though.

The concession of up to 2-3 lbs I think would turn the tables in the old boy geldings favour but we are talking about a 7 lbs weight differential in the 'Champion', people. I don't think he (or any other colt/gelding) is capable of that, right now, and that is why I think Laurina will be victorious come March.

 

Laurina needs to improve quite a bit, even getting 7 lbs.

She won easily at Cheltenham last season but it was a race for Novice Mares, just about the weakest category since questions for "Mother and Eldest Child only" on the BBC sexist quiz show, Ask The Family, where it was assumed that the Father could "carry" the younger child.

If the Champion Hurdle were a Handicap Laurina would be getting another 10 lbs from Buveur D'air because her Official Rating is 155 to his 172. I thought that the official handicapper and the Racing Post were a bit premature putting up Laurina by 3 lbs and 6 lbs respectively for winning a match race at odds of 1/8. I believe when horses finish 48 lengths behind another horse there is little hope of actually concluding how near to their actual rating the beaten horses ran to.

It will be a travesty for quality if a 155 rated horse can win the Champion Hurdle.

 

For completeness what was BD mark when he won it for the first time? And Annie Power?