The Sunny Southwell Sands Thread

Hi All,

Hope you don't mind me indulging in a Southwell Sands thread, basically I want to focus some study on the Southwell cards this winter, focussing on Southwell form, Sire Statistics and yards in form on the surface.

Anyway, we've had a couple of meetings on the sand this winter, and it looks to be riding very deep and it does seem to be helping horses with previous course form.

So tomorrow we have a tricky looking card, but I hope to flag up some interesting snippets of form and statistics. I will try and add sire % in brackets for main horses in the race.

In the first race we have a 100% record on the line with Glasgon (8%) who won from out of the handicap in August. That day they went very fast early, and Glasgon was able to get to the front after midway and stayed on better than those finishing tired in behind. I think it was a very modest race that day, and I think she can be taken on here, given she is up against 13 rivals.

Anna Jammeela (16%) probably has the best recent course form, with a fine third when being delivered down the inside on what I think is the poorest of the ground. She travelled well in behind the leaders and stayed on dourly to challenge for second towards the line. In behind was Go On Gal (24%) who was given more to do as they turned for home and was switched widest of all to do so. She was weak that day in the market and wasn't given the optimum ride for the race conditions! She has been dropped 3lbs for that effort and can reverse the positions with Anna Jammeela if getting a clearer and straighter passage.

Go On Gal 10/1 BOG

 

Personally I will ignore your fantastic write up and just back the FAV

 

Race 2 - Maiden

Rare (14%) is short price favourite, and a horse rated 70 would normally be good enough for a maiden at Southwell (last years winner was rated 78 after the race). Second in the market is Princess Harley (9%) who is rated 67 and ran a cracker when alongside Anna Jammeela in a handicap at the course last time out. Principia (12%) is next in, but again the form isn't inspiring and sire stats aren't great.

No Bet - Rare is probably likely winner but too short at under 2/1 on first try on surface

Race 3 - Handicap Sprint

This is a strange old race, with so little course form to go on. Poppy May (10%) is the only course winner in the field and that was over further! Pindaric (18%) is interesting on sire statistics, but his course form is horrid and so is this race. The favourite has a sire percentage of 6%

No Bet


Race 4 - Handicap Sprint

This is more the Southwell of old!! Course veterans battling it out with newer foes. We have Fortinbrass (5 wins) Coiste Bodhar (5 wins) and Sir Geoffrey (9 wins) baddling out for the old guard and the weights are topped by a three year old in Astraea (sire has hadd 1 runner on surface - unplaced) who could be anything in comparison to this field. However he was slowly away last time out and that won't be a help on this surface.

I think we are going to see a return to form for one of the old guard, Fortinbrass is well down in the handicap but is drawn wide so Coiste Bodhar is the selection. He showed enough form last time out from out of the handicap to suggest that this season could bring a couple of wins. He was electric from the gate last time out, but just didn't have the speed to cope with that higher class of race, and in this race he is drawn perfectly to get out of the stalls and make all.

Tick The Boxes would be the main danger, but his form isn't good and he is far too short at 4/1

Coiste Bodhar @8/1 BOG

 

Race 5 - Nursery

Previous course (and gamble form) with Lads Order (8%), and that should be good enough, however this is tougher than when he landed a gamble, and he has a lot more on in terms of handicap mark. Material Girl (19%) is the best on sire statistics, but doesn't really appeal.

No bet race

Race 6 - Nursery

Lincoln Spirit (15%) comes out best on sire statistics, but this is another race to avoid.

Race 7 - Maiden

One horse stands out massively on sire statistics, and this is mainly because of the very few runners this sire has had on the surface. Declaration Of War has had four runners at Southwell, and three of them have won. They've been at shortish prices but on that stat alone I think we need to look at the once raced Queen Tomyris at 25/1.

Space Bandit (19%) is also a real positive on sire statistics and at 11/2 also looks a fair bet.

Small EW on Queen Tomyris and small win on Space Bandit

 

Race 8 - handicap

Horrible little amateur riders handicap, but these races can be quite interesting in terms of the betting and form. When I looked at the card I though Port Soif (28%) would be a short price favourite, given her recent course form and 100% record at the track, yet she is 5/1! This either means she isn't ready for the run or that she is being greatly overlooked.

On stats, on form and even on handicap marks, it has to be Port Soif, but I could look either very shrewd or very stupid at 15:45 when she wins at 5/2 or is beaten a mile at 8/1!!

Port Soif @5/1

 

Morning update

Go On Gal 10s into 8s
Coiste Bodhar 8s into 11/2
Space Bandit 11/2 into 9/2
Queen Tomyris 25s into 16s

And you guessed it, the most obvious one Port Soif is 5s out to 6s!

Interesting to see money against Rare (now 2/1) and lots of money around for Magical Molly Joe in the first sprint handicap

 

Wonderful thread and, in my view, the natural successor to the ‘Daily Thread’. I look forward, in the coming months, to the ‘Lovely Leafy Lingfield thread’, the ‘Wonderfully Windy Wolverhampton thread’ and the ‘Chavtastically Chilly Chelmsford thread’.

I won’t be surrendering any legal tender on the Southwell Sands card but the one that strikes me as being the most interesting ant, sorry the most interesting dec, is the debutant Vow of Presence in the penultimate prize (3.10). Nice pedigree and the trainer has a decent strike rate at the course. Was also withdrawn, at a late stage, from October’s ‘Horses In Training sale’ so you could surmise has recently showed them something that has made connections holler, ‘Cor bally blinkin’ blimey we can’t sell that!’

But, team, am very disappointed by the standard of amateur rider in the ‘lucky last’(3.40) – not one double barrel, Honourable or minor Royal amongst them. Most distressing.

 

Space Bandit a well supported winner. QT an eye catching 4th too.

 

Joking aside if you can be in the bookies or online, then their is good guiidance in the last backed horse or the fav coming in for support.
Please take this guidance with a pinch of salt from a fav backer and poor man!!!

 

Sorry, Nass, I missed this; work getting in the way this week.
Looking forward to the next one, I do enjoy Southwell.

 

Thanks, will be carrying this on for Friday where we get to see a conditions race on the sand!

 

Really unusual card tomorrow with just the seven handicaps and then a conditions race, containing horses with some very useful form.

Race 1 - sprint handicap

Honey Gg (25%) sets the standard here with a very good second place on recent course and distance run. That race was probably better than this and she is the horse in the race with the best recent form. Therefore it is no surprise to see her as a 11/4 favourite.
The race is slightly more interesting than just the favourite though, with horses who do have course form in opposition. The most interesting for me is the 46 rated Nuzha (25%) , who is one from three at the course and is by the same sire as the favourite. She is on a career low mark, and returning to this surface could revive the Newcombe horse.
She showed plenty of early pace last time out, and I am hopeful that we can see a much better run than her market price suggests.
The interesting thing about this race is that plenty of pace is seen on the high draws, with Pearl Noir, Archie Stevens, Nuzha, Gorgeous General all likely pace angles from stalls 9 and above. Of those drawn low we only have Furni Factor and Honey GG who are strong pace angles. This to me is interesting as those drawn high might get racing early and have competition, which could give them a distinct advantage here.

Nuzha @ 20/1 EW

 

Race 2 - Selling handicap

A rogues gallery, a cast of dodgy characters. a list of old timers. All of these can be applied to this race, with Novabridge, Divine Call and Sir Geoffrey all being 10 years of age or older. Throw in an eight year old and three seven year olds and a picture is very clear... its a cast of horses who have been there and done that. However, inbetween these old boys, we have some intriguing youngsters.
Novabridge (9%) is ten years of age, and is the favourite here, and probably quite rightly on recent form, but he is 0 from 10 at the track. He is the pace angle and he does have placed form at the course, but I can look elsewhere. Divine Call (19%) is eleven!! Yet he has a one from one record at the course, and that win was back in 2010. His recent form isn't inspiring and I think he is another we can overlook. Very similar terms can be given to Sir Geoffrey, who is another with course form, but is another who is long in the tooth.

So lets look at the youngsters, First Breath (16%) is a three year old who runs on the surface for the first time. He showed a little on both of his last runs, and a switch to Southwell would be of interest if he is strong in the market. Having the visor fitted for the first time might be the thing he needs to focus his mind. Purple Dragon (17%) is very similar in terms of exposure but her first run on the surface last time out was poor, and therefore wouldn't be interesting unless money arrived.

Really its a horrid race. No Bet.

 

Race 3 -
This is better, we have a course winner topping the weights off a mark of 75. Restive (16%) is two from four on the surface and is back on his preferred surface, but is up in the weights because of this. He is a very interesting horse, he has had a good season and is a fair bet at 4/1.
Amitie Waltz would be a timely winner given the sad news about his sire Sinndar, but amazingly the numbers I have looked at suggest that he hasn't had a winner on the surface. This horse has placed here, but that would be a worry for me against horses with course form. Essenaitch (10%) is one of those who has performed on the surface, and he would be high on my list of horses to watch in the market.

I will back Restive @ 4/1 in this, given that I think its a 2/1 shot

 

Race 4 - CONDITIONS STAKES

One bit of winning course form and five horses rated 90 or above, how unusual! My Lord And Master (12%) is top rated by the BHA, and therefore is a logical place to start. He ran midfield in the November handicap last time out after running a lovely race at York off a mark of 99. On that form he would be very hard to beat here, but does have to take to the surface.
Corelli is the unexposed one, and being by Point Of Entry he makes an intriguing entry here. The sire is US bred but on turf, so will this horse take to the surface? Well you pay your money and take your chance.
Not So Sleepy (10%) is highly rated by the handicapper and has very solid handicap form that suggests that he should take a hand in the finish here. I am worried however that he is a free running sort who seems to find a way to be beaten (just 3 from 31). He is exposed in comparison to the three year olds in the field.
Morning Wonder (25%) is interesting on the small sample size of his sires runners, and he won a handicap decisively from a mark of 85 last time out. He has to give weight away to all here, and that might stop him.
Victoria Drummond (39%) is a real positive here given her course and distance winning form and progressive profile. She might be outclassed here, but I think she is one to stay the right side of on this surface and from bottom weight. She ran a stormer last time out at Newcastle, a course that is so difficult to make all on, so I don't think we've seen the end to her improvement.

She is slightly shorter than I was expecting @4/1

 

Race 5

As stated about the last race, making all at Newcastle is hard, so the run by First Excel (17%) at that track last time out reads really positively, and now returning to Southwell I think he is a cracking bet at 2/1. He won off this mark in this race last year.

 

Race 6

Not a nice race for me, no amazing course form or surface switches. I will leave this alone.

Race 7

Two course winners who have unbeaten course records in Earl Of Bunnacurry (12%) and the form of his course win over Sherian worked out well. He is massively up in the weights under his penalty and that might be enough to stop him here. Bond Angel (13%) was massively impressive at the course last time out, and who knows whether this raise in grade and handicap mark can stop her.

And then we have the Tufto!! The market looks to have this race right, and therefore currently its a no bet race.

Race 8

This race is interesting as it seems to revolve around Maajmeh Dawn on handicap debut for the Cromwell raid. It is a tough field though with plenty of course form in opposition. Boots And Spurs has been running well this winter, Alpha Tauri ran a good race behind Bond Angel last time and Tagur could well be fairly handicapped. Then we have Theydon Spirit and Wicklow Warrior lurking at the bottom of the handicap too.

However I do like Sooqaan and it will be interesting to see if money comes for the course winner now that he has cheekpieces on for the first time. He is drawn nicely to attack and showed more last time out to suggest that his time isn't going to be too far away. I've been tempted at 11/1.

 

Appetite Whetted.
Thank You, Mr Nass

 

Here are my selections; wish I could watch, but work is ridiculously busy at the mo', so that text commentary on the 'phone will have to do.

11.20 - Gorgeous General : drawn high, recent form on the surface points to a good effort; bang it out and hang on!
11.50 - Father McKenzie, though this is one of those races, isn't it? so Novabridge will likely win.
12.25 - Restive, though I think Star Ascending could go close
1.00 - I'll just side with 'The Nortonizer' on Victoria Drummond
1.30 - First Excel and Huntsmans Cross to battle it out, with the first named clinching it
2.05 - Stanley: application of visor now after an encouarging run on the surface last time
2.40 - Earl of Bunnacurry, go with the money, but come on The General and watch out for Fieldsman
3.15 - Boots and Spurs based on recent efforts in the surface

One big question.
Where is Piazon on a day like today? Beat them all in that second race 3 weeks ago and is one of the best on this surface.

Enjoy!
Thanks once again Nass, this is excellent.