The Run In, Relegation Edition

I did a version of this a few years ago...under much different circumstances, as we chased promotion to the Premier League. Basically, a schedule analysis of all the teams from 10th down which could conceivably be pulled into the relegation fight.

The numbers are the average points/match hauls of their remaining opponents...the lower the number, the better. For the sake of comparison, the average PL team has garnered 1.36 points/match, so anything below that represents a relatively favourable schedule.

Included is the average points needed for the team to reach 38 points, as that feels like it ought to be a pretty good gauge of safety this season.


Bournemouth - 7 home matches, 6 away. 0.77 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.25.
Average opponent away: 1.29
Average opponent overall: 1.26.

Shorter version: it'd be really, really surprising if Bournemouth got dragged into it. Their schedule is quite favourable, and in 9th they're not far from safety.


Watford - 7 home, 6 away. 0.85 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.22.
Average opponent away: 1.63.
Average opponent overall: 1.41.

Watford has a sizable home/road split, so the recipe is simple: win some of their comparatively easy home matches and they're safe. Slip up and they're going to be sucked back into it, because those away days are brutal. For added difficulty, they have been the worst home team in the Premier League to date.


West Ham United - 7 home, 6 away. 0.85 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.49.
Average opponent away: 1.49.
Average opponent overall: 1.49.

I realize that the generally accepted logic is that West Ham is too good to go down. But man, they still have eight remaining matches against teams in the vaunted single digits. Part of their recent uptick in standing has owed to an easier schedule, but it's going to bare its teeth soon.


Crystal Palace - 7 home, 6 away. 0.92 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.45.
Average opponent away: 1.23.
Average opponent overall: 1.35.

Similar to us, a couple really important home matches and some very difficult ones, and they might need to take points away from home to breathe easily...but it's something they haven't done terribly well all year.


Newcastle - 6 home, 7 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.41.
Average opponent away: 1.39.
Average opponent overall: 1.40.

More away matches than home and a schedule slightly harder than average isn't a spectacular combination, but pretty close to par.


Brighton - 7 home, 6 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.43.
Average opponent away: 1.56.
Average opponent overall: 1.49.

Really difficult schedule, and like ours, it's heavily backloaded...next three are West Ham, Stoke and Swansea, after which it's exceedingly difficult. Brighton needs to do work quickly, or they're in major trouble.


Stoke - 6 home, 7 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.55.
Average opponent away: 1.30.
Average opponent overall: 1.42.

Stoke is the worst away team in the PL to date, and they have a hard remaining home schedule. They have to be rated among the favourites to go down.


Huddersfield - 6 home, 7 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.18.
Average opponent away: 1.64.
Average opponent overall: 1.43.

Their next four home affairs are against Bournemouth, Swansea, Palace and Watford; it's a favourable situation, representing the softest home slate of any team...so long as they win some of them.


Southampton - 5 home, 8 away. 1.15 points/match needed
Average opponent home: 1.76.
Average opponent away: 1.19
Average opponent overall: 1.41.

Unique among the possible contenders, we only have five home matches left, and they're doozies. With 15 points away from the line where we can consider ourselves safe without real assistance, we will need to play to win on the road, as we have the largest split in opponent quality home and away of any side. There's no such thing as a good road draw against other relegation contenders...we need wins, even if that means risking losses.


Swansea - 6 home, 7 away. 1.15 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.27.
Average opponent away: 1.43.
Average opponent overall: 1.36.

With a schedule that skews a little easier at home, Swansea can dig out of this. Their home match against Stoke on the final day could be playing on everyone's second screen, too.


West Brom - 7 home, 6 away. 1.38 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.35.
Average opponent away: 1.48.
Average opponent overall: 1.42.

Average schedule, but they basically have to be a top eight team from here on out. Not easily done.



So, basically: if you're looking at teams whose schedules work against them, ourselves, Stoke and Brighton have to rate; thanks to tricky home fixtures (us, Stoke) or tricky fixtures overall (Brighton), there aren't many matches in which those three will go in favoured to take a win. Similarly, if West Ham slips up in their next couple, they could be sneaky picks to backslide into the bottom three, because their schedule is absolute hell from that point forward.

 

I'm waiting for the cheery punchline to send us out into the world happy.

Anyone?

 

Well... on paper looking at your analysis (brilliant btw) we have a good hope of staying up. I actually thought we had a more dofficult run coming up.
In reality though, who will we actually beat? Brighton were dreadful last night.

 

I bet it doesn’t pan out this way at all. I also think the line will be about 34 points

 

We’ll stay up in 17th place on 34 points.

 

Pan out what way? That's just the teams in order of the table as it currently stands.

The line might be lower; 38 points is really the level one ought to be aiming for, however, because anything below that leaves you at the mercy of others.

 

Schedule overall isn't spectacularly difficult, it's just very heavily weighted toward winnable away matches. While our home record is poor, our away record (like most teams) is worse...we need to turn multiple teams over on the road, or we're probably getting relegated.

 

There is always hope whilst we keep within touch of other teams....but we all know what hope does, don't we?

I'm trying to keep believing that draws can be turned into wins....although I know that equally they can turn into losses

Stop it, Fran. Pull yourself together.

I like to believe we are that annoying team that other relegation-threatened teams keep trying to pull away from....and ultimately don't

That's better.

 

Interesting to note that as of this morning we are the 7th favourites with the bookies to go down. Huddersfield, Swansea, West Brom, Brighton, Newcastle and Stoke are all (a lot) shorter than us. I have also spoken with a few neutral mates of mine who all laughed when I said there was a real possibility we might go down, so it seems the general football world hasn't realised our situation yet, or we are all over reacting.

I do think that if you asked any fans of those 7 teams the majority would say they are going down, with the exception of maybe Swansea after their great week. Luckily for us only 3 can so lets hope the bookies are right.

 

One game at a time, one game at a time. Anything can happen. It's football


PS: @fran-MLs little camera cheery enough?

 

As I said in another post, the 'experts' don't seem to be considering us as relegation fodder or at least not to any marked extent....I think they consider us to be a team like West Ham....expected to pull out of it. And it is still very close. However, the media guys aren't watching and suffering as we are....we are not the team we were. And remember teams like Newcastle and West Ham can go down and have in the past.

 

The key thing here, is we watch saints more than anyone else. Even if I take off my red an white glasses, and try and analyse neutrally, we are the worst team in the league at the moment. Swansea, West Brom, Newcastle, huddersfield would all beat us on current form.

 

That doesn't make good reading to me. Nobody is cut adrift, so many teams need similar performances, our requirements are the 2nd highest in the league and our rivals have improved. On the other hand 1.15pts per game shouldn't be that hard, but our current is 0.92pts/game and that means approximately 25% imporvement in points haul.

 

Depending on the threshold, safety looks something like:

If 38 points - 4 wins (including at least 2 away from home), 3 draws, 6 losses.

If 36 - 3 wins (including at least 1 away from home), 4 draws, 6 losses.

If 34 - either 2 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses, or 3 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses.

It's worth noting that surviving with 34 points would be a major historical aberration...only one club in the PL era has avoided relegation with 34 points, and that was West Brom when we were last relegated. In all but the final scenario we need a major uptick in performance: 3 wins in 13 doesn't sound like a tonne, but that's a 23% winning percentage; we're currently at 16%, and our winnable home matches have dwindled.

 

Majority of my football family and friends are Liverpool fans. They too laughed when I suggested we might get relegated, and asked who they might have as a nursery club if we did!

 

Excellent analysis, hope you don't mind, I have taken the liberty to put your fine analysis up on the Swansea board as a thread in it's own right.........

 

Absolutely welcome to post it elsewhere; all I ask is 20% of the profits from the novelization and a writing credit for the film version.

 

Oh boy, I was wondering if we'd end up having to have this thread. Alas, we do.

Wonder how many pages we'll be on when the season ends...

 

So does Pellegrino go for a win on Saturday? I am thinking not. He just won't change! We will go into every game, try and get one on the break, then sit back and hope! Unless the penny finally drops!!!
Yeah ok we are supposedy 7th favourites for the drop, but come on, with this idiot, we are where nailed on, at the moment!

 

I thought Pellegrino set us up really well against Tottenham, right formation and correct players.
This was then completely undone with his team selection and tactics against Brighton.
If we are to stay up then he needs to be braver in playing more attacking players.
Unfortunately for us we drew a must win game against Brighton so there's even more pressure on West Brom.
At least with it being away there may be less negativity from the crowd. Hopefully anyway!