The Royal Stud 2018

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OddDog said:
Magnetic Charm won readily <ok>
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It could have been worse but it also could have been better. Magnetic Charm won readily and now will have to step up to a Novice race. Sextant spoiled his chances by acting like a maniac. As docile as anything in most of the preliminaries he took great exception to Moore getting on top, and threw the jockey. Walked to the start he then was flat footed when the stalls opened and then ran very green. He will have to do much better next time.
Calculation ran third behind latest Gosden hotpot 'Too Darn Hot'. Again very green during the race after starting slowly he may do better next time out but he's unlikely to be a classic horse.
The team need to do better and this season's 3yos appear poor. Two go tomorrow and Humbolt Current may do better with some firm handling from Allan at Redcar. Sadly Georgia never got into him last time out and he must have thought he was out for an easy gallop.
 
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According to the Plus 10 website the Queen has 25 named 2yos that were bred by the Royal Stud. So far 2 have run and one was withdrawn on the morning of his race. Of the two who have run one, Topical, has run twice and finished 3rd and 4th in decent maidens over 7f. The other, Calculation, ran 3rd of 5 in what was probably a hot maiden at Sandown.All very promising but not very inspiring. Topical is entered in a couple of 6f races in the coming days and maybe the drop in distance will help him.
So what of the others? Bell seems to be promising the most potential of action. Regular (the withdrawn horse and an Exceed and Excel half-brother to Humbolt Current ) will hopefully get over whatever caused that and make his debut. Bottom Line ( a filly by Dansili out of a half-sister to Kalanisi) will hopefully make her debut soon as she is regularly featured in Bell's gallops. Eightsome Reel (an Ifraaj colt out of that good filly Set to Music) is featuring in gallops, so one would expect her to run in September/October. Of the other trainers with Royal Stud horses there's not much to report. As I say uninspiring and given the sires they are throwing at these mares there is a sense of underachievement.
The Queen has had a 2yo winner in the filly Magnetic Charm, but of course she is not bred by the Royal Stud as she is a brought-in horse (from Darley). Surprisingly she has been entered for York's Acomb Stakes next Wednesday. If she runs she will take on the colts, some of whom look very useful. What must be said is that Haggas rarely wastes his entries at York and that he has already won this race for the Queen when Recorder won it in 2015.

Meanwhile Humbolt Current has taken his score to 3 with a win at Redcar. He really needs to be stoked up and is the type of horse who will never win easily (he got home by a 'comfortable' neck last Saturday). He certainly seems tough and genuine but you wouldn't want to back him with large amounts if you have a dodgy ticker. Sextant runs on Saturday at Newbury. Maybe he'll be the Queen's 2nd 3yo winner this year and hopefully he'll be a good boy this time or the outcome may be sharply painful.
 
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Stoute trains his first 2018 winner for the Queen as Sextant wins his maiden at Newbury. He's still green as grass and beat nothing but may be a 4yo if he can wake his ideas up.

Autumn Group entries are appearing and Stoute has a 2yo colt called Sovereign Grant (Kingman out of Momentary, so a half brother to the disappointing Sharp Practice). is entered for the Dewhurst. Stoute will have to find a maiden for him in the next month for that entry to have any value. Haggas has Magnetic Charm and Shrewdness entered in the Fillies Mile. Shrewdness is a filly by Lawman out of a Danehill Dancer mare called Shama. She was bred by the Aga Khan and comes from his Shergar family.. She was a big filly who ran placed as a 2yo then won her debut as a 3yo before losing her way. A very promising pedigree and hopefully this isn't Haggas (or Warren) overrating this filly who's a first foal.
 
Two wins on Monday. Stoute doubled his Royal winners when Sharp Practice at last got her head in front (helped by the favourite getting withdrawn at the start). Topical also went in at Thirsk to the give the Queen her 2nd 2yo winner.
Magnetic Charm looks set for Goodwood and suddenly things look a touch brighter.
 
A horse that was 'worried about' on this thread, Natural History, came out after his previous disappointing display to make his handicap debut at Chepstow on Thursday. The only maiden in the race he was ridden differently by Probert, leading from the start. Two furlongs out he was joined by two others but at the distance asserted himself to come away and win by 8 lengths. He really looked to be enjoying himself and thoroughly stayed the 12f of this event. His next start is awaited with some anticipation and he could easily follow up over 12 to 14f and may stay further.
 
If entries for big races are important then tomorrow's debut of Sovereign Grant at Sandown is an important day this year for the Queen. Entered for the Dewhurst he must show some ability tomorrow. A grandson of Oaks 2nd Flight of Fancy he is by new sire Kingman. Sovereign Debt's siblings who've raced (and they've both won) did not win as 2yos and both have been speedy. Let's hope he's better than both of them.

This colt's dam has had a big investment in her partners. Following Kingman she's been sent to Australia (a filly) and then then Dubawi (a colt). She's currently in foal to Dubawi again. There must be some reason for this.

The Queen has started sending quite a number of her mares to France. 2018 coverings were to Le Havre (Daphne), Siyouni (Shimmering Light), Toronado (2 mares), Motivator (2 mares) and Recorder (her 2yo winner of the Acomb who never ran again: 5mares!).
 
Not fully tuned but the colt ran promisingly for most of the race. A touch short of room, Moore gave him an easy race and hopefully he learned a lot. Next time out he will need to win.

Calculation has his 2nd race in the next few days, while Flarepath has been entered for some likely races next week.
 
14 winners Year to Date for the Queen, and on Wednesday she must be hoping Calculation improves enough to win his 2nd start. His 7 lengths 3rd to Too Darn Hot does not seem so bad now. The extra furlong at Goodwood should help him.

Thursday sees another 2yo start her career in the shape of Flarepath at Salisbury in what is usually a hot maiden. She's bred well enough to do the job being by Exceed and Excel out of a Galileo mare who comes from the family of El Gran Senor. I'd expect a prominent run. On Saturday Magnetic Charm, who didn't seem to turn up for her recent Goodwood race, makes a quick return in a Kempton Novices Stakes. Doyle rides both of these 2yos.

On Friday the promising Sextant will show us if he has made the hoped-for progress after his recent win or show that he's still a big baby. Hopefully it'll be the former. Finally the almost as promising Natural History is entered on Saturday at Haydock. He is risen in Class to a Class 2 Handicap and it's not surprising he's sent over 14f.

An interesting week.
 
Interesting week? A wholly disappointing week with all runners disappointing, especially Calculation. On what we've seen so far this colt may need 4 miles let alone 2. The best performance was probably by Frontispiece.
Calculation ran as if he had gone backwards. Sextant was 3 to 1 on but showed little when set to take on his sole challenger. Natural History did not run badly but was clearly outpaced by Mekong. The two other entries, Flarepath and Magnetic Charm, did not run but are set to go this week.

The Royal runners have a bad case of the slows. While they should be trying to breed 8-12f horses they must throw some speed into the mix from time to time. They have used speedier sires but usually when they do use them it is found that these sires are sent to the lesser mares. Time for a mass injection of speed.

Winx is the best racehorse in the World. Fascinating to see for her last victory that she beat a gelding called Invictus Prince having his eigth run in Australia. A 6yo, he turns out to be that Royal rogue Mainstream, who won a maiden and a small handicap as a 3yo. He continually disappointed (despite being gelded) as a 4yo and was sold. Over7f, a distance he didn't run at in England since his 2yo win he runs the race of his life.The Queen has a yearling colt by Dubawi and a colt foal by Sea the Stars. With 4 foals of racing age so far only Mainstream has run!
 
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With a month to go of the turf season I thought I'd take a look at what has been achieved so far from the perspective of the Royal trainers.

First up Stoute:
His only older horse Frontispiece has run some fair races but not won. He goes to the Autumn sales.
Of his 4 3yos he at least has had 3 winners, in fact his only royal winners. a lot was hoped for Sextant and Elector but the former has won one small race and the latter has failed to score. Elector goes to the sales. His other 3yo winner was the mostly disappointing Sharp Practice. Since winning she has not been entered and She is probably being prepared for stud or for the sales.. Another 3yo (but brought in) Refrain at last won at his 8th attempt. The disappointment has been that Dartmouth's full sister, Desert Breeze, has not reached the racetrack. We'll find out soon whether she goes to stud.
Of the 4 2yos sent to Stoute two have run and both were placed. However they both soon had their limitations exposed and while Kingman's son Sovereign Grant may win this year he will have to improve a good deal to be of any account next year. Estimate's son Calculation similarly need to improve.
So 3 races won so far.

Next Haggas
His first older horse was Call to Mind, whom it was hoped would prove to be a Cup horse. His limitations were quickly exposed by Stradivarus in the yorkshire cup so he went west and won the Belmont Cup (the biggest purse the queen has ever won). Unfortunately in his next race he had a career-ending injury. His second was the Dubawi gelding Seniority (a brought-in horse) who has had a good season winning 3 races, including a large Goodwood handicap. So no complaints on the performance of these two horses.
As regards 3yos Haggas had 4 and Humbolt Current was easily the best (winning 3 times after being gelded), but best meant his best performance was a Redcar handicap off a rating of 80. One own-bred colt ran once and wasn't seen again while a brought-in colt, Strategist, ran twice (both places) but was not seen after June. The final 3yo was the unraced Dubawi filly Witching Time who was never entered.
Haggas originally had 6 2yos but one was moved to Charlton. He has run 2 of these 5 and the most exposed is Magnetic Charm who is a filly of some promise. She is behind a good few of her peers based on her May Hill run (4th) but she gives the appearance of inexperience. Her first run next year is awaited. Haggas's other runner Flarepath made an acceptable debut and could be of some ability. Of the 3 unraced 2yos Recorder's full-brother Space Walk looks the most interesting, but has not been entered.
So 7 races won so far.

Up next Bell.
This trainer had two older horses and the star of the show has been the 6yo gelding Fabricate who with two Group 3 wins and some places has won £90,000 or so this season. But it's a bit sad when despite all the fancy sires you are using your best horse is a 6yo gelding. His other older horse, Merlin, has obviously had problems and only run once. Neither is entered for the sales so presumably may be kept in training.
Both Bell 3yos achieved little despite running several times.
Bell usually gets his 2yos out so it is surprising only 1 of the 5 he was sent has run (actually not badly as Humbolt Current's gelding half-brother Regular finished 2nd on his only start). 1 of the 5 is already Sales bound. If he has a decent 2yo it may be Eightsome Reel, who though seen on the gallops has never been entered.
So 2 races won so far.

Next Charlton
The Beckhampton trainer had 2 3yos who both ran once this year, both down the field
Neither of his two 2yos have run so far.
So no races won so far

Next Balding
His only 3yo was Natural History who has some ability and could turn into a reasonable handicapper. He won on his handicap debut.
Sent two 2yos, neither have run so far.
So 1 race won so far.

Next Hannon
Hannon had three 2yos and two have run. Both are entered for the Sales so despite one of them, Topical, having won they don't appear up to much.
1 race won so far.

Then Hughes
This relatively new trainer was sent two 2yos neither of which has run.
No races won so far.

Finally Gosden
Sent two (Darley) brought in 2yos neither have been entered.

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It doesn't make for good reading. Few races won (14 YTD) and relatively few horses running. According to Horses in Training and subsequent news the Queen has had 45 horses in training at some time over the season to date and a score of 14 wins from 9 winning horses (only 6 of whom are home-bred): seems a bit light to me.
I've already said the Royal Stud needs an injection of speed but I also think the Stud needs a clear out of mares. Hopefully it'll start this year.. ,
 
In a month, and even a week, you'd expect to see a lot of backward 2yos out the Queen manages 2 runners.
The gelding Regular runs at Donny today and should go close. More interesting is Shrewdness appearing at Newbury tomorrow. By Lawman this filly is out of a Royal mare from the Shergar family. With jockeys all over the place Haggas managed to get Crowley.
Next week the Motivator gelding Metaphor is entered. He could be a useful stayer next year.
 
3 wins in the last month takes the YTD score to 17. Poor considering the number of horses she has.in training. Sovereign Grant's win looked a fair performance and Flarepath became Fiery Sunset's first win from her first foal. More surprising was Eightsome Reel's win at Wolverhampton. Totally unfancied at 50-1 he came from last to first to win on the line. As others had run before and there were a couple of winners this was probably a decent performance. He's an Iffraaj son of Set to Music, who is one of the Aga Khan fillies she brought in a few years back. She was a decent filly who improved as a 3yo to win 4 races on the trot including the Galtres at York. She also finished 2nd in the Group 2 Park Hill but didn't appear to get the trip. This is her first foal to race and she has a yearling colt and a colt foal by Lope de Vega.She is again in foal to Iffraaj. I doubt Eightsome Reel is anything special but it's good to see the mare off the mark at her first attempt.
This colt was in a gallop with Regular and Youthful and my reading of it was that Youthful came out best of the 3. Regular came out after this gallop and finished 3rd, and Eightsome Reel won. So although gallops can fool everyone, this one looks to have some credibility. Youthful ran again in another gallop yesterday when he went clear of his lead (a once raced No Nay Never colt). Youthful is by Sharmardal out of a Cape Cross mare who traces to Highclere. One worth watching when he runs this week.
Disappointingly the Royal Stud is sending only 3 mares to the December Sales. It should have been twice that at least.
 
Oh well my eyesight isn't failing me, as Youthful got home in a good-for- Wolverhampton maiden by a nose. By Sharmardal out of a mare, Good Hope, whose 2nd dam is a Shirley Heights half-sister to Height of Fashion. A win with her first ever runner, Good Hope has a yearling filly by Iffraaj and a colt foal by the same sire. For some unaccountable reason she was then sent to Cable Bay, who just happens to stand at Highclere.
 
One of the Mr Charlton 2YOs is set to debut on Saturday evening at Wolverhampton (West Newton).

Also note that Sunshade, who I mentioned earlier on this thread, remains in training for this NH season (although not yet run and no entries to date). A bit of a shock given that she was Listed placed last term and her handler detailed that she wasn’t really much good – could she therefore possibly improve on this in 2018/19?!? No idea if Sunshade will remain over hurdles or if they will try fences.
 
Thanks SBC. West Newton is an interesting one in that he's by Roaring Lion's sire Kitten's Joy. The dam is Queen's Prize who is half-sister to a lot of talented but temperamental horses. Apparently a village near Sandringham.

Sunshade is out of a half-sister to Close Touch, who looked a promising jumper before getting injured. I'd reckon she'll go jumping eventually.

The Queen seems to be trying to breed better NH horses, as she's sending her few NH mares to more specialist NH sires. We'll see. Won't be surprised if Anne takes over the NH string sometime.
 
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