The Royal Stud 2018

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Bustino74, Mar 20, 2018.

  1. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    And then there was one. I started following major UK owner-breeders nearly 50 years ago and over that period have watched them drop-off one by one (Holiday, Astor, Rotherwick, Joel and Ballymacoll being the key ones). So I am left now with The Royal Stud.

    As in previous years I will start off before discussing the Queen’s 2018 horses by signalling the change that has taken place in the stud over the last 10 years. The following 2yos are all out of mares that were not resident in the stud 10 years ago. With The Queen having 25 own-bred 2yos this year, which is a high number for her, the fact that nearly half are new is significant. I doubt within its history the stud has seen such change. The question is now will it deliver? To be seen as delivering it must achieve more group successes: they will have to come in the next 2-4 years.

    Eightsome Reel c Ifraaj – Set to Music ( from Aga Khan’s Petite Etoile family: first foal in training; Bell)

    Space Walk c Galileo – Memory ( purchased mare: dam of Recorder and Call to Mind; Haggas)

    Calculation c Dubawi – Estimate (Aga Khan family {originally Boussac}: first foal; Stoute)

    Raffle c Ifraaj – Raymi Coya ( brought-in mare; needs to show something; Haggas)

    Bottom Line f Dansili – Key Point ( Aga family of Kalanisi: needs to justify being in the stud, not yet placed with a trainer)

    Bovaglie f Paco Boy – Abergeldie (from Darley family but mare now sold; not yet placed with a trainer)

    Shrewdness f Lawman – Shama (Aga family of Shergar: first foal; not yet placed with a trainer)

    Starry f Lope de Vega – Aurore ( Wildenstein family: mare needs to justify place in stud; Balding)

    Topical c Toronado – Star Value ( Aga Khan family: 4th living foal yet none have reached the track yet; Hannon)

    Flarepath f Exceed and Excel – Fiery Sunset (from Juddmonte family of El Gran Senor,first foal; Haggas)

    Desert Caravan c Oasis Dream – Sequence (Aga Khan family of Sinndar {originally Boussac}; 3rd living foal but mare yet to have runner; Haggas )

    Puzzle c Paco Boy – Appleton Drove (daughter of purchased mare: this mare now sold though half- sister,Diploma, is retained; Hughes )


    Few would doubt that it is not just the Queen and her team striving harder than ever in the next few years to give her a Derby winner. Darley, Juddmonte and the Aga Khan have been foremost in this effort but it’s likely Coolmore have played some part. One interesting development for this year has been the addition of John Gosden to the Royal trainer roster: more of that later.


    So what has the Queen got this year? Well before I discuss her team for this year a nice surprise has been the entering of her maiden colt Humbolt Current for the 2000G. In 50 years I cannot recall a Royal colt being entered for the Guineas (fillies yes, but colts no) but Haggas’s colt has found himself in the list of entries. His form is fairly bare as in his only start he was 2nd to his stable companion in an October Yarmouth maiden. That day he was badly away and just about last at halfway. He ran on well and finished a promising second to his stablemate (subsequently sold for an enormous amount and now with Varian).. The third home won his maiden next time out but the winner did not reappear so there’s little to go on. His trainer, Haggas, rarely wastes a classic entry so must be of interest unless it was Warren and family who pushed for the entry. Anyway he’ll have to win his seasonal start and if it’s a maiden at Newmarket or Newbury then he’ll have to win it very well. As regards his breeding then it’s slightly worrying for me that I can recall his first five dams (where did all that time go?) . The sixth dam was a mare called Lyrical who resided in the Royal Stud for just a few years in the ‘70s. In that time she presented the Queen with a distinctly useful, tough gelding called Rhyme Royal, who won a handful of races and finished 2nd in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. She also got a Busted filly called Contralto (who won twice) , and in turn she had a Kris filly called Soprano (who won 2 listed races and was 3rd in the Coronation Stakes). Her Shirley Heights daughter Zenith was not up that class but won once , but when bred to Alzao produced a lightly-raced filly called Spinning Top who won her maiden and then ran 2nd in the Lupe stakes (her last race). Her Dr Fong filly Humdrum was a fair handicapper and won 4 races. At stud she has had 3 runners so far and the first 2 have both won. The first foal Husbandry (by Paco Boy) looked distinctly useful but died soon after winning his maiden. So the family is a good winning family but not recently a classic family. However go back to Lyrical’s grand-dam and her son Scottish Union won the Leger as well as finishing 2nd in the other classics. Humbolt Current is well-named being by Fastnet Rock and looks ready made to be a miler though could stay 10f. His seasonal debut is eagerly awaited. There is a Humdrum 2yo colt (by Exceed and Excel) called Regular with Bell.


    I’ll look at the rest of the Royal Squad by looking at her families.


    First off is the Queen’s oldest family and her best. It is the family of Feola, and so the family of Hypericum, Aureole and Highclere and of course Hamdan’s best family of Nashwan etc. I’m strongly of the opinion that this family has had second pick of sires for much of the last 15 years and that this has been a mistake. However things appear to be looking up. This year there is only one 3yo, an unraced filly called Witching Time (by Dubawi out of the useful mare Caraboss) who is with Haggas. There are 3 2yos, the first being a full-sister to Witching Time called Clarion (as yet to be placed with a trainer). Caraboss has an Oasis Dream half-sister in the stud called Dawn Glory and a Cape Cross full-sister called Good Hope. Both of them have Sharmadal 2yos, the former a filly called Break of Day (with Haggas) and the latter a colt called Youthful (with Bell). A lot depends on these 4 unraced horses. Though Bell is a reasonable trainer he cannot be said to get the best of the Royal horses, so I would favour Break of Day for the future.


    The 2nd most established family in the Royal Stud is what I would call the Amicable family, a mare who found her way into the Royal Stud in the ‘60s. The family has produced a lot of good and sometimes very good horses but no great horses. There is one 6yo and that is Fabricate, who seemed to gain a new lease of life once dropped in distance to 10f in 2017, winning a Group 3 after winning a good handicap at Glorious Goodwood. He should win races this year. His trainer Bell also has a 4yo gelding from this family called Merlin, who is the first foal of the useful filly Momentary. Merlin (by Oasis Dream) won 3 races as a 3yo and looks capable of winning more. Stoute has his unraced Redoutes Choice 3yo sister called Sharp Practice, and also has a Kingman 2yo colt called Sovereign Grant. Momentary looks a mare of which much is hoped as she has an Australia yearling filly and is due to foal to Dubawi. Her runners this year are awaited.

    From the same Amicable family Stoute has one Royal 4yo, Frontispiece, who has won twice but appeared a little weak as a 3yo. He will have to step up this year. His year younger sister, Any Little Rhyme is with Bell and looks a ready-made winner at 8-10f. There is a Sea the Stars half-sister to these two called Poetic Gift, who is yet to be placed. Stoute has another member of this family, effectively a cousin to the above 3, called Sextant (by Sea the Stars). There were whispers about him as a 2yo but he was eventually unraced. Still entered for the Derby he hopefully will make his debut early in the season. One to watch I think, while his 2yo half-sister Equal Sum (Paco Boy) is likely to be an early 2yo with Hannon. Another 3yo from this large Royal family is Balding’s Natural History (by Nathaniel) who is out of Film Script who won the Lingfield Oaks Trial and has bred a couple of useful horses. He ran once as a 2yo and performed quite well. I can see him scoring in a 12f maiden at somewhere like Salisbury or Newbury and then go on to better things. There is a 2yo half-sister called Special Edition (by Toronado) who is yet to be placed with a trainer. Charlton has an unraced 3yo filly called Fleeting View (by Sixties Icon) who is a half-sister to the useful Mustard but will need 12f+. Her2yo half-brother, Metaphor (Motivator), is with Bell and should be seen this season.

    Other 2yo members of the Amicable family are a colt Invictus Spirit (by Frankel), with Stoute; another colt West Newton (by Kitten’s Joy), with Charlton; and finally the yet to be placed filly Sightseeing (a first foal by New Approach). I make that 16 horses from this family in training (or possibly in training) this year, which is a large proportion of the Royal Squad.


    The next group of horses are from what I would call the later Royal mares. Lyrical has already been discussed. The other mare which can be placed in this category is Medley, who’s a daughter of a mare The Queen acquired in the ‘80s. So far she has had 3 foals run and all three have won. This year she has a Henrythenavigator 2yo gelding with Balding called Compass. Obviously much is expected of Medley’s daughter Light Music as her first covering is Frankel. Light Music looked a very good 2yo in 2016 but didn’t follow it up as a 3yo.


    The next (and final) group of mares are what I would refer to as the Bought/Brought-In mares of the last 10 years. From this group is another 4yo in training and that is the Galileo colt Call to Mind, who is out of that good 2yo (but impossible 3yo) Memory . She has so far had 3 foals to race and all have been listed class or better. Call to Mind’s older brother Recorder looked a really promising 2yo but was injured and never ran again. Call to Mind did not run as a 2yo but after winning on his debut in april (8f) he did not win again until late august in the March Stakes (14f). His next start saw him narrowly beaten in the Group 2 Prix Chaudeney by Ice Breeze who went on to win the Prix Royal Oak. Call to Mind is a promising stayer and is likely to start in something like the Sagaro or Henry II Stakes and if all goes well could go for the Gold Cup. Whether he will fully stay 20f remains to be seen, but his last 2 starts were his best. There is no Memory 3yo as Learn by Heart (Frankel) was sold at the end of his 2yo career. This year’s 2yo is a full-brother to Call to Mind called Space Walk and is with Haggas. I’m expecting him to be more like Recorder. Memory is seeing the crème de la crème of sires and has a yearling filly by Dubawi before returning to Galileo (obviously hoping for a filly). This is the year for these colts to show she is worthy of that attention.

    If the Queen has a Derby horse this year then it is the Dansili colt Elector. This Stoute-trained colt won his only race at Ascot, when relatively unfancied. The form is very ordinary, but there was much to like about his resolute, hands and heels victory. He will have to improve a great deal but maybe a 10f listed race in April at Newmarket or Newbury could show if this colt has more about him. He is the third foal of Enticement (purchased in 2006 and a listed winner at 2 and 3) The best foal so far was the Dubawi filly Diploma (who is due to foal to Deep Impact this year) who was probably better than her 3 wins up to 10f, including a listed win. Unsurprisingly Enticement has visited Dubawi 3 times since Elector was born. What should have been this year’s 2yo probably died as a foal but there is a yearling colt to follow Elector.

    Most fuss of this year’s 2yos will probably be made of the Dubawi colt Calculation. He is trained by Stoute and is the first foal of the Queen’s most recent Group 1 winner Estimate. She ran only once as a 2yo and didn’t win her maiden until May of her 3yo campaign. It would be a nice surprise if Calculation was a more forward colt but it’s likely he’ll be at his best as a 3/4yo and best over a distance of ground. Of the other 2yo in the Brought-in category (all listed at the start of this article) it is Flarepath I like the look of. She is the first foal of a Galileo mare (the Queen’s first) called Fiery Sunset who is from a good Juddmonte family which also made its name in the colours of Robert Sangster and Charles St George. By Exceed and Excel I can see this filly being one to expect making her debut late-summer and being the type to score this year. Flarepath has a Kingman yearling full-sister. At this stage another filly I’d like to mention is another first foal called Shrewdness (by Lawman). This filly is out of the giant mare Shama who was by Danehill dancer out of a mare from the Aga Khan’s Shergar family. Unlikely to be an early type (she is yet to be placed with a trainer), she will be a filly of some interest because Shama looked highly promising as a 2yo and early in her 3yo career.


    The final category of Royal horses is those not bred by the Royal Stud, and this is where Gosden comes in. He has been allotted two colts bred by Darley, one by Sharmadal and the other by Teofilo. Whether this appointment is a Warren action (Stoute is getting no younger) or at the recommendation of Sheikh Mohammed may never be known. Last years 2yos in this category were no great shakes. Two who did not run as 2yos are of interest. The first is Stoute’s Desert Caravan, who is a full-sister to Darley’s most productive donation to the Royal ranks in Dartmouth. She will need 10f at least. Another filly I think will win a race is Bell’s Sailing Home who is by Sharmadal out of a German Monsun mare. There are 2 more 2yos from the Darley outfit with Stoute and Haggas: but more of these and all the other 2yos as the season progresses.


    I can’t wait for the season to start and proper racing starts at Newmarket in April. Hopefully it will be a good year for The Queen.
     
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  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Great write up (as usual) Bustino. Thank you
     
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  3. Eddie bin Nesta al-Glesga

    Eddie bin Nesta al-Glesga 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Good stuff Bustino, the one of the Queens on my 2018 list is Natural History, really liked him as a long term prospect. The winner of that race Bombyx is a nice type as well.
     
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  4. mick the jolly sailor

    mick the jolly sailor Well-Known Member

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    Interesting stuff. Will have to keep that somewhere for future reference.
    Thank you.
     
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  5. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Might have written more about him but there's a bit of uncertainty. Although he is listed in Horses in Training as being trained by Balding he is not listed on Balding's website list. So I hope HiT is correct and Balding has made an oversight.
    If he is still in training then I agree with you. He ran a similar race to Humbolt Current on his debut but looked more of a staying prospect. He's by Nathaniel (strangely her only Nathaniel) out of a mare I like called Film Script. She was a pretty good filly and was the dam of the Queen's Chesham Stakes winner Free Agent. Natural History is half-sister to the dam of a good horse she owned a few years back called Peacock.
    Hopefully he's OK and we'll see him picking off his maiden.
     
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  6. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Fabricate took a G3 at Kempton to get the Queen off the mark as an Owner (but not as a breeder as good old Hammer Gun has now won his 7th race and 2 of those this year). Racing Manager Warren said that Fabricate may next run in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. This gelding is really well-bred being by Dubawi's son Makfi out of Oaks 2nd Flight of Fancy. As a mare she was a disappointment and Fabricate has easily been her best produce. She did leave a daughter, who is the dam of Momentary of whom I spoke above.
    Warren went on to say That they were serious about Humbolt Current and said he would go for a maiden at Newbury. His next comments astounded me as he then said if he wins that we'll look for a trial!. If he means the horse to run in the 2000G then is he going to find some trial (Sandown) a week later and just a week before the big race. One would hope a Racing manager would have a feel for the fixture list, hopefully Haggas has.
    But his comment allows me to talk about this Spring's fixture list. Why is the Grand National not being run next Saturday? If it was Newbury could have been held on the 13th/14th and Newmarket on the Tuesday and Wednesday of the next week. Cecil often moaned about the Greenham somtimes being only 2 weeks prior to the Guineas (as it is this year). Here was a chance to remedy that and they've missed it.
    Don't get me started!
     
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    Last edited: Apr 2, 2018
  7. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Important week for the Royal stud and the Queen with 3 of her most important colts running this week. First up is Elector at Newmarket on Thursday. Was entered in the Fielden but Stoute may have waited for Moore's availability. Has to win this if he is going to justify his Dante and Derby entry.
    The other 3yo entered is Humbolt Current in the 8f maiden on Saturday. Doyle rides and that may be a nod to him being a likely pilot for the colt if by any chance he does make the Guineas. Again, Humbolt Current must win what looks like a hot maiden if he is going to live up to his entries. I think he will.
    Maybe because of Doyle's availability he also gets the leg up on Call to Mind in the John Porter. I'd rather have seen him running over further but I'm sure he'll make a good account of himself. After this I'd have thought the Yorkshire Cup was a likely target.
    With so many 3yo maidens it is disappointing to see only one running this week. One I do await is Sextant. Unlike Elector he is not entered in the Dante, but he is at a shorter price (admittedly 33-1) in some Derby lists than his stablemate.
     
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  8. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    I know it’s a different code but I’d be intrigued to see what they did with Sunshade now that she has reached the end of her novice hurdling career – keep her in training or send her to the old breeding sheds. Personally, I’d suspect the latter option will be chosen.

    Sunshade would certainly be a valuable addition having won a bumper, 2 hurdle events and also been Listed placed – prior to that run, incidentally, Lieutenant Henderson gave a televised interview in which, as honest as ever, he talked her down somewhat and even hinted that he had done bloomin’ well to win anything with her! In fact it was a very good bit of placing as Sunshade was indeed Listed placed but beaten 45 lengths in that race! Her last run further exposed the old girl when she was 9th, beaten almost 20 lengths, in Newbury’s ‘Mares Finale’ – this was, incidentally, also Barbers Shop’s little sister, Heather Royal’s (albeit a different owner), last race as well.

    I would imagine she’s no better than what she has shown so far and it would make sense, not to risk her any further, and to now go to stud – unless, of course, the great man thinks Sunshade will make a much, much better chaser and can pick up Graded honours in that sphere.
     
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  9. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Hardly a runner for The Queen. Has she got something else that's occupying her?
     
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  10. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Two today and both fairly important. Call to Mind goes in the Yorkshire Cup and if producing his best form must have place possibilities.
    The talking horse Humbolt Current goes in a 7f maiden at Newbury. If he isn't placed Mrs Windsor may not have a smile on her face.
     
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  11. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    If I were The Queen I'd be wondering what is happening: or more correctly what isn't happening. Hardly anything is entered, hardly any runners and what is running is disappointing (Humbolt Current especially) and 2 months into the season and only one winner. It says something when this high powered breeding operation run by wedding guest John Warren is best represented by a six-year-old gelding.

    However some 'good' news. Natural History is still alive and is entered next Monday. Balding is having a reasonable season so maybe he'll start the season off. Bell has a 2yo on the gallops who at least shows some ability. He is a colt called Youthful, who is by Shamardal out of a Cape Cross mare called Good Hope who comes from the Highclere family.I wouldn't expect to see him too soon as he may need 7f.

    That 6yo gelding, Fabricate, runs Thursday at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard stakes.
     
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  12. Eddie bin Nesta al-Glesga

    Eddie bin Nesta al-Glesga 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Could be quite a hot novice that Natural History is entered for judging by the entries with Allieyf, Crystal King and Photographer. No betting up for the Queens Vase yet but I think Natural History could be an ideal type for that.
     
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  13. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Natural History and Sailing Home both go at Nottingham this afternoon. NH's race looks tough, though the Doyle booking looks interesting. Sailing Home looks to have a good chance. She is by Sharmadal out of a Monsun mare and comes from Darley. May not get many better chances and Atzeni is in the plate.
     
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  14. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Call me old-fashioned but I think there's a clue in the word racehorses that horses are supposed to race. The Queen must be wondering about that. With 40+ horses in training this year she is yet to have a 2yo runner, she is yet to have a 3yo winner and she is yet to have a horse win on the turf (in the UK). By the way she has had 4 winners so far this year.
    However it must change soon, mustn't it? Otherwise Warren (her racing manager and bloodstock advisor) will begin to be known as the upper class twit he consistently looks. It may change today with Sharp Practice at Newmarket. A Redoutes Choice filly out of a good Nayef filly called Momentary, she has had one run out on the all-weather. She will be a different filly today. Any Little Rhyme ( a full-sister to the disappointing Elector) could also get off the mark at Haydock but is probably not open to the same improvement.
    Of course the Queen has had a Turf winner this year and that is Call to Mind who won the Group 2 Belmont Cup in the US. This is the biggest financial win the The Queen has ever had. So that makes it alright: or does it?
    Foalings seem to be going well. 3 Dubawi foals, a Frankel filly (out of Light Music) and a Sea the Stars colt look the stand-outs at the moment. Hope springs eternal.
     
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  15. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Summer must be coming. The Queen has a 2yo entered!
    Hannon has his colt Topical in a race at Newbury next Thursday. He is by Toronado out of a mare called Star Value who found her way into the Royal Stud via the Aga Khan. From a distinguished family (Blandford for example) the most recent highlight has been Star Value's dam Shemika who won the Prix de Diane. This is Star Values 5th foal, but one died soon after birth and another never went into training. Of the the other two foals neither ran. So the mare has something to prove.
    A few years back Hannon had two 2yos (Pack Together and Peacock) who won first time out and went on to better things, especially Peacock. Since then Hannon hasn't had a decent horse. So he has something to prove too..
     
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  16. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Hats off at Windsor on Monday night as Humbolt Current became the first 3yo winner for the Royal Stud and The Queen. Just got home after looking outpaced and beaten 3f out, but showed admirable resolution to get up. Now 2 stones lighter (he's been gelded) and with cheekpieces on he may go on to win a handicap somewhere. Hardly meeting the expectations of Warren in April though.
    Topical does run on Friday at Sandown in a good maiden. (Actually in the old days this used to be the first 7f race of the season for 2yos). The eye-catching thing is that Moore has been booked to ride him. Now it could be because he used to be considered the Queen's jockey or it could be because of old associations with Hannon's yard but he's not a bad jockey to have in the plate.
    Two other 3yos run for The queen on the same day, Natural History at Doncaster (Buick rides) and Sharp Practice at Chelmsford (Probert rides). Chances of a treble? Well I'll be disappointed if these two aren't placed so maybe it should be an E-W treble.
     
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  17. NDS

    NDS Well-Known Member

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    Good luck with the treble but I fear Moore will be the one to cock it up
     
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  18. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Topical 1st race.jpg
    above:Topical at Sandown on his debut

    Sharp Practice will win this time....HONEST.
    Topical made a pleasing debut. He was a bit green but headed the field at the distance whereupon he started changing his feet and was run out of 2nd place by the useful looking King of Comedy. This may turn out to be good form.
    Certainly didn't look fully wound up and will come on for the run

    The second 2yo runner is lined up for Newbury on Friday with Doyle already booked. Haggas introduces one of his Darley brought-ins, Magnetic Charm. She is a filly by Exceed and Excel out if a mare from the same family as Darley's Saturday winner Quorto. Should have a bit of pace about her and should make a bold show.
     
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  19. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Sharp Practice DIDN’T win and should be forgotten. Natural History similarly appears of no account.

    Humbolt Current appears the best of a poor 3yo generation. He has now won twice and should make it a quick hat-trick today at York with the useful Georgia Cox in the plate. He seems genuine but needs a strong ride.

    Interest now turns to the 2yos. Estimate’s 1st foal Calculation has been pleasing on the gallops and is expected to make his debut very soon. Similarly BottomLine out of a half-sister to Kalanisi looks to have a bit of speed and should run soon. Meanwhile Topical reappears at Newmarket on Saturday and should give the stud its first juvenile winner of the year.
     
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  20. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    This has been a disappointing thread and a disappointing season for the Queen. Usually you’d expect her to have 20 to 25 wins a year and by this time of the year 12 to 15 with a fair amount of the winners being 3yos. So far this year she has had barely a handful of wins with only two 3yo winners.
    Having said that she has had her 2 biggest prize money wins ever with Call to Mind (injured and now retired) winning a huge purse at Belmont and brought-in 4yo gelding Seniority winning the Golden Mile last week at Goodwood.
    Will this be the week when things change a little? Tomorrow the much awaited debut of 3yo colt Sextant takes place. Moore takes the bus up to Nottingham to ride him in a fairly ordinary 10f race. As a son of Sea the Stars out of a full-sister to Oaks 2nd Flight of Fancy he certainly has the pedigree. In the evening the promising Magnetic Charm has her 2nd start at Newbury after a promising debut at the same track.
    On Thursday Gold Cup winner Estimate has her first foal, Calculation, make his debut in an 8f maiden at Sandown. Estimate ran as a 2yo but was just unplaced on her only start at the backend of the season. Calculation has been delighting the gallops watchers with his speed and (often ridden by Moore) putting his galloping companions to the sword. For everyone involved in this Dubawi 2yo a pleasing debut will be much appreciated.
     
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