Off Topic The Politics Thread

[GoldhawkRoad]

My post was unnecessarily insulting, Col, and for that I apologise to Goldie and yourself. It was indeed, though, a cry of frustration at the 'tell 'em to **** off' stance which I consider to be dangerous and irresponsible. A no-deal Brexit would be disastrous in so many ways, I believe, and to see people such as yourselves cheering it on just so that they can stick two fingers up to the EU, is extremely hard to take.

Apology accepted, Strolls. Everyone's getting frustrated by this. I don't want a hard Brexit. I want a deal with the EU that benefits the UK and EU member countries. From his posts, I believe Col does too, but the fact is, when you negotiate, both sides must compromise and a deal must be looked at as a whole ie divorce and future relationship treated separately. This EU idea of demanding £60 billion from the UK, without any promise of a trade agreement, to enter trade talks when the EU could up the blackmail and presumably demand another £60 billion is practically and commercially unrealistic. This is the bottle neck which could lead the talks to fail.

For me, the industrialist James Dyson has spoken a lot of sense. The UK has done all that is reasonable. We go the WTO route, that puts us in the position of virtually every other none EU- country around the world. If EU member countries decide this will damage their export businesses into the UK, then let them come back to us and we'll be reasonable.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

Strikes me the self interest of the 27 would be best served by the U.K. not leaving the EU, and failing that milking us for everything they can. Perhaps there is a gamble that running down the clock will either force us to cave in on terms because we will be tragically unprepared for no deal, or ask to put back leaving a few years.

You're right, Stan, that the 27's interests have been damaged by the UK leaving because we were one of the few net payers. But on the other hand, the UK was also holding members back. The current meeting of 20 of the 27 to discuss common defence initiatives (with the view ultimately to an EU army) is one example. The UK had always held out against this, backing Nato.

The gamble of trying to milk the UK is that the UK moves to WTO rules. Increasingly, it's looking a real possibility. I still hope that it's brinkmanship on both sides and common sense will prevail. But the UK cannot keep tolerating a deferral of the start of trade talks. For me, if the EU tell us "not yet" at their December meeting, we have to go full on for WTO because otherwise we'll run out of time and there really will be chaos. Business is saying repeatedly - we can cope with anything but uncertainty.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

I really don’t think this whole thing revolves around Barnier ... that just UK perception imo

A tainted new story at best

The EU is powerful and I believe are only following the rules written into EU law

What really pisses me off is the common brexiteers who start talking about corruption and wine cellars. I am 100% pro EU and fully praise what they have done especially for the farming sector and watching Ireland grow has been brilliant imo.

I challenge any brexiteer head on as their vote has made this mess and was in reality just a protest vote. Our political parties in the UK are the joke of the world currently and pretty sure everyone is fed up. The principle of the UK standing on its own always appeals to me but I came to the conclusion years ago that I hold no confidence in the system of changing and delivering it

The English way is now always someone’s else fault. And I have always said that people acting on a united front together in the UK is almost impossible.

You're right, it isn't just Barnier. It's Brussels, and at the moment, EU member states and their industries are watching them negotiate with a hard line. If the UK walks away towards WTO in December after another "Non" reaction from Brussels in December, that will, in my opinion, set the cat among the pigeons in Europe. The unity of approach will be broken. Perhaps Merkel and Macron will step in to save the situation, but who knows?

As to our political parties being a joke - it has been a rough few weeks, I agree - but there are also big problems in the rest of Europe. Merkel has to form a government aware of the huge rise of the right with the success of the AfD. Austria has elected an anti-EU right wing leader. Eastern Europe will revolt over forced immigration, and Spain is in turmoil over Catalonia.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

@Staines R's @rangercol @ELLERS

Easier to reply to you all at once. I was very specifically referring to those who still, 17 months on, with the additional info we now have on what hard and soft Brexit really means, have this ‘hard Brexit now’ attitude. Fortunately that’s a small percentage of those who voted Leave back last June and wasn’t meant to patronise all Brexiteers.

Those who do honestly still have that attitude, I really question why. It’s a damage limitation exercise now and that’s the most damaging option.

UK attitudes are hardening, because of the artificial bottleneck created by Brussels preventing the start of trade talks. If everything was on the table together, constructive talks would advance imo. No one really wants a hard Brexit. But no deal is most definitely better than a **** deal, and the Labour party's view that it isn't is dreamland.

 

[rangercol]

My post was unnecessarily insulting, Col, and for that I apologise to Goldie and yourself. It was indeed, though, a cry of frustration at the 'tell 'em to **** off' stance which I consider to be dangerous and irresponsible. A no-deal Brexit would be disastrous in so many ways, I believe, and to see people such as yourselves cheering it on just so that they can stick two fingers up to the EU, is extremely hard to take.

Fair enough.

See my response to Stan to see that I don't want a "no deal" too.

 

[sb_73]

You're right, Stan.

At last, welcome to the light side Goldie!

As both sides stare into the abyss, it’s just possible that common sense will prevail and we realise that the two year period set out in Article 50 is just an arbitrary timescale, set before anyone had to actually do it, and looking increasingly inadequate for the complexity of a negotiated outcome. If May, or whoever is PM, asks Merkel/Macron for more time it may well be given. That might infuriate some hardliners, but this is a one time process, it’s best for everyone to get it as right as we can. Of course there will have to be a new deadline, can’t have this drifting on endlessly, but it might only need a few more months.

But I suppose it wouldn’t make any difference if the root of the problem is Tory infighting v EU ponderous inflexibility, which I suspect it is. If no deal is achieved then everyone involved on both sides should be sacked and humiliated in public.

 

[rangercol]

I appreciate the response Col, seriously.

I can’t predict the future, I can only guess based on what I hear and read. I think we will end up with some sort of deal, I also think the stress caused to ordinary people from this process - especially migrants of whatever nationality and small businesses, is criminal and both the UK and EU should shoulder the blame for that. And ****ing apologise and sort it. it’s stressing me and I have comparatively little at risk.

But if Johnson and Gove can’t apologise for getting a mother an extra 5 years in an Iranian jail I guess I’ll have to whistle on that. For balance I can’t imagine Juncker, the Sepp Blatter of politics, saying sorry for anything.

I suppose what I'm saying is that it's very, very hard to know who is right and who is wrong on all the potential outcomes. So called experts on both sides claim that their "facts" are the correct ones.
I also find it very hard to believe any predictions for the future when so many economists etc get so much wrong so often.

I completely agree about the current crop of politicians on all sides. They all want to make me weep and the situation isn't helped with the political uncertainty world wide right now, where Trump can become USA President etc.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

At last, welcome to the light side Goldie!

As both sides stare into the abyss, it’s just possible that common sense will prevail and we realise that the two year period set out in Article 50 is just an arbitrary timescale, set before anyone had to actually do it, and looking increasingly inadequate for the complexity of a negotiated outcome. If May, or whoever is PM, asks Merkel/Macron for more time it may well be given. That might infuriate some hardliners, but this is a one time process, it’s best for everyone to get it as right as we can. Of course there will have to be a new deadline, can’t have this drifting on endlessly, but it might only need a few more months.

But I suppose it wouldn’t make any difference if the root of the problem is Tory infighting v EU ponderous inflexibility, which I suspect it is. If no deal is achieved then everyone involved on both sides should be sacked and humiliated in public.

If the EU agrees to the transitional period, an end date of March 2021 should be doable. Minds need to be focused, political, legal and commercial. There'd have to be a good reason to drag things out longer. The EU 27 want to get on with their own projects. The UK wants to put bilateral agreements in place with the the US, Canada, Australia, NZ, China etc

 

[ELLERS]

My post was unnecessarily insulting, Col, and for that I apologise to Goldie and yourself. It was indeed, though, a cry of frustration at the 'tell 'em to **** off' stance which I consider to be dangerous and irresponsible. A no-deal Brexit would be disastrous in so many ways, I believe, and to see people such as yourselves cheering it on just so that they can stick two fingers up to the EU, is extremely hard to take.

Stroller we all hear your frustration and I agree with you in parts. The whole thing needs to be sorted for the best. I don't think we are sticking two fingers up to the EU we are as frustrated as others.

 

[Lawrence Jacoby]

The insults don’t help anyone, but they are a pretty good indication of the state of this country, the frustration and the division.

I don’t see how a genuine no deal can improve our future as you are claiming, and you should spell out how it will. Because the neither government, which you agree is incompetent, or any other political party represented in Parliament, is arguing that, so back up your opinion.

Ignoring the economic impact, or what the markets will do to us:
How will a genuinely hard border in Ireland, which even the DUP doesn’t want, improve the lives of the Northern Irish?
How will no security agreements with the EU improve your safety?
How will having no agreement on citizenship improve the lives of Britons living in the EU (let’s not worry about EU citizens living here)?
How will having to set up dozens of agencies to regulate areas that the EU does for us now help us spend more money on the NHS, education, defence? Let alone give us confidence that we are regulating new medicines properly, ensuring aviation, food safety and managing dozens of other vital areas effectively?
How will leaving the European Common Aviation area help us travel, and travel safely?
How will not having a single trade agreement in place with any other country, and being kicked out of not just the biggest trade agreement with 27 countries in the world but 55 others that the EU has negotiated, help our balance of payments and economic growth?
How will increased regulation and tariffs, plus delays at borders, help the profitability of any company which imports or exports to the EU?

I could go on and on. If you agree we need a deal in any single area you agree that ‘no deal’ and walking away from negotiations is not an option, and that your ‘tell ‘em to **** off’ mantra is just like Stroller’s insults, a cry of frustration.

Add to that SB73 the actual cost of making this all happen. Pretty sure when the deal is finalised and the projected cost made sort of public we will face an even bigger division. I maintain you put that cost in the face of the British public and ask them to vote on that it would be a landslide.

Telling the EU to F off is not the answer when it sends this nation tumbling down the GDP league tables.

Someone on here please convince me otherwise by listing our exports to the EU? I know of IT of course but that market looks like it getting smaller

Aerospace: well i know for a fact that my capital on my region in France being Toulouse is on a massive drive to relocate as many UK based aerospace industries to Toulouse.

Both IT and Aerospace uk based tech I feel could struggle if better conditions are offered within the EU

All this could be irreversible so look at the risks here

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

Add to that SB73 the actual cost of making this all happen. Pretty sure when the deal is finalised and the projected cost made sort of public we will face an even bigger division. I maintain you put that cost in the face of the British public and ask them to vote on that it would be a landslide.

Telling the EU to F off is not the answer when it sends this nation tumbling down the GDP league tables.

Someone on here please convince me otherwise by listing our exports to the EU? I know of IT of course but that market looks like it getting smaller

Aerospace: well i know for a fact that my capital on my region in France being Toulouse is on a massive drive to relocate as many UK based aerospace industries to Toulouse.

Both IT and Aerospace uk based tech I feel could struggle if better conditions are offered within the EU

All this could be irreversible so look at the risks here

What you're saying is that the EU is a shrinking export market for the UK, which is exactly right. There is a potentially massive market for the UK outside the EU.

The UK does, however, import hugely from EU countries, which is something Brussels has not recognised so far in the Brexit talks.

 

[kiwiqpr]

Parliament will get a vote on the final Brexit deal before the country leaves EU, minister David Davis has told MPs.
He said the terms of the UK's exit, including any transition deal and agreement on citizen rights, would have to become law via new legislation.
And he said MPs would have the opportunity to reject or amend such legislation, saying "the agreement will only hold if Parliament approves it".
The concession comes as MPs prepare to debate key Brexit legislation

 

[sb_73]

Parliament will get a vote on the final Brexit deal before the country leaves EU, minister David Davis has told MPs.
He said the terms of the UK's exit, including any transition deal and agreement on citizen rights, would have to become law via new legislation.
And he said MPs would have the opportunity to reject or amend such legislation, saying "the agreement will only hold if Parliament approves it".
The concession comes as MPs prepare to debate key Brexit legislation

If they reject, no deal is the result.

If there is no deal there is no vote.

 

[Lawrence Jacoby]

You're right, it isn't just Barnier. It's Brussels, and at the moment, EU member states and their industries are watching them negotiate with a hard line. If the UK walks away towards WTO in December after another "Non" reaction from Brussels in December, that will, in my opinion, set the cat among the pigeons in Europe. The unity of approach will be broken. Perhaps Merkel and Macron will step in to save the situation, but who knows?

As to our political parties being a joke - it has been a rough few weeks, I agree - but there are also big problems in the rest of Europe. Merkel has to form a government aware of the huge rise of the right with the success of the AfD. Austria has elected an anti-EU right wing leader. Eastern Europe will revolt over forced immigration, and Spain
is in turmoil over Catalonia.

Every month since it started there has been some sort of crisis in any of the member states. The EU governed from Brussels is quite rightly divorced away any one country within the EU . It’s bigger than just part imo

Hence why the blame and corruption theories are always placed on the door mat in Brussels ... same as most western countries

Generally i think the EU is in urgent need of reform but the work they have had has been outstanding imo. I believe this will go down in history as an example of the worse UK politics of all time.

Reform is on the way now for the EU but at the expense of 52% of the UK ... that is any world is not correct especially when the voters had no idea what the vote was about and here we are

 

[Lawrence Jacoby]

What you're saying is that the EU is a shrinking export market for the UK, which is exactly right. There is a potentially massive market for the UK outside the EU.

The UK does, however, import hugely from EU countries, which is something Brussels has not recognised so far in the Brexit talks.

How much is the word potentially going to cost? Generally business is streets ahead of any government. In France of course I see bureaucracy on a idiot scale yet it all works

In the UK I just see the idiot scale

 

[Lawrence Jacoby]

Fair enough.

See my response to Stan to see that I don't want a "no deal" too.

What we want and what we get looks way out of control Col ... take stock of exactly what has happened over one referendum vote... we should be united on that

 

[rangercol]

What we want and what we get looks way out of control Col ... take stock of exactly what has happened over one referendum vote... we should be united on that

I'm more than happy with the result of the vote Paul.
My resolve hardens with every day that passes.

 

[Lawrence Jacoby]

I will have to pay for this vote and of course I will just for the potential that the UK reinvents itself. I don’t like that but as long as my kids can travel freely throughout what they see as the best country on the planet ... France then bollocks to it all.

 

[Lawrence Jacoby]

I'm more than happy with the result of the vote Paul.
My resolve hardens with every day that passes.

I respect that 100% and would fight for my home country to recover .... sadly global businesses cares very little about countries.

They all look st this as a money making opportunity and if we have less and trade becomes difficult ... naturally they will drop us

 

[rangercol]

I will have to pay for this vote and of course I will just for the potential that the UK reinvents itself. I don’t like that but as long as my kids can travel freely throughout what they see as the best country on the planet ... France then bollocks to it all.

Why shouldn't they be able to travel?
Many people who voted leave don't have the luxury of worrying whether their international travel may be hampered. They're more concerned about whether they can get a GP appointment or an operation done on time.