The Play off race hots up as we enter 'business end of the season' and there are a number of rivals near us that we look to with envy. The main competition comes from: Sheff Wednesday Derby Birmingham Cardiff Forest (?) If we look at it with a mathematical hat on, we need to reach (roughly) 75 points. Which is equivalent to 9 wins.. We have 15 matches left. Which is possible, but the 2 match head start Derby & in particular Sheff Wednesday have on us, means we have little to no wiggle room. We need to be in tip top form to get to 75 points and the matches we have against Cardiff, Wendy and Derby (all Away) are must win matches now. Though if we lose a couple more in the meantime, they will begin to mean very little by the time we get round to playing them
Unfortunately, I cannot see us realistically finishing in the top six, although we're obviously still in with a shot and I think we'll be in with a mathematical chance right towards the end. I think our next four games will be crucial to determine whether we can keep the pace. We have a squad crippled with injury, so it'll be telling to see how we can adapt to that, and not to mention those four upcoming games offers a variety of opposition. We host the league leaders Hull, followed with a tough-looking away trip to a resurgent, yet inconsistent, Huddersfield side, a home match against fellow play-off outsiders Nottingham Forest, and an away trip to current basement boys, Bolton. I hate putting points predictions on upcoming games, particularly so far in advance, but out of the 12 available points above, we should be looking at seven points, if we want to still be in with a decent shout.
I think we'll need more than 7 from our next four games. Our last 3 away fixtures are Sheff Wed, Derby and Boro - we need to be in the top six, with a 3/4 point cushion by the time we play Wendy. But, as we all know with this league - absolutely nothing generally goes to plan. The bottom teams will beat the top teams, everyone will drop points at some point when they are not expecting to. I still think the top two will be between Boro, Hull, Burnley and Derby (I think they'll eventually come good and push again), which means the next 6 clubs will be fighting for the two other places. On paper, we have 7 winnable home games (not including Hull), with away trips to Huddersfield, Cardiff and Bolton which are definitely winnable - all in all, we still have a very good chance, if we can get our first 11 fit and playing week in week out. If we have to start relying on our second string, then we'll be out of the race come end of March
I would be surprised and delighted if we made it based on recent performances, let's not delude ourselves and accept that we are just not good enough right now. If we had our first choice side I think we would be contenders for a top 6 finish but no one seems to know if and when that could be and there's not enough games left anyway, so we soldier on as we did Saturday with 2 players who hadn't played for months and it showed although Pringle did give it 100% which is all we can ask for, thanks ME.
Gotta be honest - with one thing and another, ie - others strengthening more so than us in January, and sadly for us Fraser out / McGoldrick and Bish STILL NOT back fit I think it's nearing mission impossible. Though, I will always get behind the team - we're only 3 points off there are plenty of points left to play for so we're very much in there. I actually think only 5th/6th is available - sorry but Wendy are definitely coming top 6 as far as I am concerned. McGeady / Hooper / Forrestieri/ Bannan, flying at home and picking up points away. Brighton could have another wobble yet - we'll see. I guess we need some favours as we're not playing until Tuesday - which is helpful in that Hyam / Douglas will be back, and Pringle will have played some minutes / time to train with us. I'd slot Foley in at LB in place of Knudsen - he was one of our better players at Bristol City. Niles was pretty average and Bru was utter gash.
Brighton are now 9 points clear of us and given the goal difference you have to look at that as needing a 4 game swing.. which, with 15 left to play, the odds would not be in our favour. It is frustrating when you consider that we were 2 points ahead of Brighton (when they had a wobble early Jan) and 5/6 points ahead of Wednesday a month ago, sitting pretty in 5th I said early in the season that the top 5 would be the top 5 come the end of the season and that we were fighting for 6th.. Burnley's 8 point gap makes them uncatchable in my view.. But as you put, Wednesday are looking like breaking into that group and we are now in a 5 horse race to get 2 places.. having given a head start to a couple of those around us
After another topsy turvey weekend of championship football, the 'Playoff Pack' have got even more bunched. Cardiff seemingly signalling their intent & have leapt above ourselves & Brum. Gutted that Derby remembered how to win but Sheff Weds dropping points means a win on Tuesday & we could be back to within a couple of points... Should we also consider Preston as an outside shout? Only 3 points behind us & very much under the radar
Can we keep our Tuesday night at home record going?? I hope so because lose this one and we're really giving ourselves a mountain to climb. We were 5 points clear in the top 6 not so long ago! Hull played well against Arsenal the other day so I fear this will be a different proposition to other midweek games we've had.
An away win and things start look a little more promising.. Even if just by a glimmer. We still need at least 8 wins from the remaining 13.. With potentially three massive 6 pointers in the pipeline as well. The next 2 games are nearly as kind as the fixture gods could possibly be.. If we can go into the Cardiff match ahead of them and within a point or so of 6th then the run in will really begin to heat up
4 teams separated by 1 point.. One point off 6th and 6points off 5th with a game in hand. Suddenly we are right back into the mix and maybe, just maybe our experience from last season might be the ace card in securing a playoff place again
Thanks Neil Warnock, you sure haunted Wendy! Nicely back in it now that's for sure. 4 points 1 point, unless Derby have another meltdown ( ah go on ! )
I don't want to second guess the play-off places this season, but I would say no team below you at present will get anywhere near the top 6. If Derby & Brighton can get some consistency back then it's going to be a mental battle for 6th. If those two don't - 4th is possible for any of the three teams currently outside the top 6 - going to be fun watching it unfold (for us neutrals at least)
Thanks mate! We feel we have a chance, albeit a slim one. Dreadful spate of winter injuries to key players hasnt helped. But we have got a bit of a run, all to play for and keeps us entertained. We also acknowledge, most of us, that on our day, Mick has done an amazing job with restricted resources. However, Championship is his comfort zone! Our players, mostly Championship, very few Premiership quality. Will we win the Play-offs? Doubt it, but Pigs have been known to Fly, especially Suffolk breeds!
Unfortunately, I think it's wishful thinking that we can match last year's impressive achievement and make the play-offs. We just look too inconsistent and short of quality in 2015/16. Last season we benefited from that prolonged purple patch, between September and December, when we lost once in 23 odd matches. We also largely avoided injuries to key players, from what I can recall, and, in our upcoming fixtures, we have yet to play four of the current top eight. All away from home. I'll reiterate Gaffer's point that I think McCarthy has done a very good job on incredibly limited resources, even if the general negative style of play makes defeat all that more disappointing. While it's worth pointing out our recent past, and how reassuring it is to see a squad with undoubted passion, dedication, and stability playing at Portman Road once again (no more scrapping with relegation), I am concerned about our future. Is McCarthy's brand of football sustainable in a division with more technically proficient players joining? Is Evans' business model the right way to operate when so many Championship clubs are realising that investment significantly improves your chances of promotion? Regardless, I think we'll finish in the 6th-9th region. If we do make the play-offs, I realistically can't see us getting to the Final.
Wishful thinking!? We're one point off with a game in hand on two of our rivals for heavens sake! We have as much chance as any of the others, especially if Wendy can lose to the likes of Rotherham at home. As bad as we've been we're right in the mix - When it comes to the nitty gritty, mentality I think comes right into it. I have to say I'd have to fancy Mick McCarthy dragging a side there by hook or crook over other managers wouldn't you? Got the likes of Fraser to come back yet. Skuse / Bru / Douglas to play their part. COYB.
Westy, this team isn't filling me with the same sense of belief and optimism as it did last season. Yes, we've registered a couple of wins on the bounce, but, Nottingham aside, recent performances have been far from convincing. It wasn't that long ago we had only notched one win in seven and had been completely outplayed by struggling Bristol City. We've also been seriously blighted by injuries and I'm not sure when the likes of Teddy Bishop and Ryan Fraser, the more creative faces in our squad, will be available, match-fit, and firing on all cylinders. I also feel it's important to draw attention to our fixture list and how away trips to Middlesbrough, Derby, Sheffield Wednesday, and Cardiff are going to be difficult matches. There are 'no easy games' in this division, as you rightly state, and that every team is capable of beating one another, but I still feel it's important to highlight the weight of the task before us and that expectations may need tempering. Of course, I'll be supporting the club every step of the way and hope we can get a top six place. It's achievable, sure, but for me, it's not likely.
What are you saying Mr Plum? I would be quite happy to see Town make the play-offs and go up through them It would make watching the PL worthwhile next season
