The Official 'Not 606' Cheltenham Preview Evening: 2013 | Horse Racing

Last year we had some great feedback on the forums collaborative preview, so we have brought it back and its a monster effort. This year we assembled a bumper panel after so much interest. The guys have put in some fantastic effort, so can I firstly thank them all. It has taken me all day to try to shape it into a well formatted preview that isn't too hard for you to read, so I hope this is okay. I've given it a good go! So, without any further waffle, your 2013 panel consists of:

TopClass (TC), OddDog (OD), Beef Or Salmon (BoS), Joe Lively (JL), Sir Barney Chuckles (SBC), Boston Bob (BB), GGW (GGW!), ROTO (ROTO!) Nass (NB), Woolcombe Folly (WF), Captain Pops (CP), and Brough Tiger (BT)

Background

SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE​

OD: I keep trying to find reasons to not back Dodging Bullets but I keep coming back to the same persuasive arguments as to why he will go really well – he has top class form in the book, he is battle-hardened, he has Cheltenham form. But, admirable though he is, I just wonder whether he is missing that “star quality” which is needed to win this race? I am a great fan of Melodic Rendezvous so will probably end up choosing between these 2 on the day, assuming they both line up. As a lively outsider I would nominate Dermot Weld’s Rock Critic.
TC: I love the Supreme as a spectacle but it is always a very tough pick as it is so very competitive. I’m absolutely convinced that My Tent Or Yours does not get up the hill. He is incredibly talented, but will not want a battle. Un Atout looks potentially special and I’m covered at 16/1 for him (should stay strongly if able to get a good sit). River Maigue has had farcical gallops all season and he will relish this big field and strong pace. Geraghty loves him, and I see a massive surprise with him turning over the Tent and going close in the process. Those two against the field for me.

JL: Obviously you have to start with the horse at the top of the market, and My Tent Or Yours has been described by his jockey as 'a machine', so he obviously has to be taken seriously. But this race is renowned for having shorties turned over, so at best price 7/4 he's not for me. I'm happy for him to go and win it at that price without any of my hard earned on. Jezki seems to have been forgotten about somewhat and has looked very smart in Ireland, he remains in with a shout, as does Un Atout and Melodic Rendezvous. But I have been banging on about the form of a novice hurdle run at Cheltenham in November having a big bearing on the result of this race, where Dodging Bullets beat River Maigue and they would be the two against the field for me. Already on Dodging Bullets at 14/1 and will be backing River Maigue on the day.

NB: My Tent Or Yours is the obvious one, he looked a very impressive beast when he tonked the Betfair hurdle field by an easy five lengths. He looks to be the clear favourite for this, and whilst he isn't bomb proof (on heavy he was beaten by stablemate) he does look a very different market leader to the last two jollies in the race. I like Dodging Bullets who has very good course form, he is a likeable horse who I think is improving with racecourse outings, he could be an interesting runner in the race, as could Un Atout and Jezki from Ireland. I wonder if the market will go against MTOY on the day, he needs to wander in the market to make me remotely interested. The other one that interests me is River Maigue who will put a disappointing run last time out when he meets a big field and a proper end to end gallop. He is a P2P winner and a big powerful unit who could be finishing best of all in the race. I will be backing either Dodging Bullets or River Maigue on the day.

BoS: Firstly I really don’t think this is a very strong Supreme and consequently don’t think it will take much winning, especially when I think some of those still listed in the betting will line up elsewhere. Dodging Bullets is a nice horse with solid course and distance form and if you’re on at the 14s or 12s I expect you’ll have a decent each way chance but the price has contracted so much now I don’t see any value left. I don’t think he’s a world beater though and can’t see him quite winning. Melodic Rendevous is a likeable sort and won the Tolworth in nice fashion so could get involved but possibly comes up short against the very best. Can’t have the Irish horses in this for different reasons. Champagne Fever will be staying on when others have cried enough but I think he still needs further than this and he may go from the front in this and to win it that way he’ll need to show a stratospherically higher level of form than anything I’ve witnessed from him. Jezki is horrendous value and his form through Waaheb looks poorer and poorer to me. Un Atout may be the best of the Irish but you’re taking a leap of faith to be sure he’ll handle good ground like he can soft and also he’s taking a marked step up from what he’s competed in thus far. The favourite in the Supreme usually gets beat but I’m convinced that this won’t happen this year. My Tent or Yours is a worthy favourite and I really couldn’t care less if the 3 mile hurdle race on the Newbury card completed the 2 miles quicker than the Betfair race did! He looks to travel for fun and touch wood his jumping has been decent without being amazing and I’ve heard whispers he’s not far off Darlan (RIP) standard. I think this may well be next year’s Champion Hurdle winner we’re looking at. You always look to start the festival off well so this year back My Tent or Yours and thank me after.

CP:Dodging Bullets - has won twice at the festival and is very well bred and has each way claims.
Champagne Fever assuming he runs in this to get the softest ground and probably to avoid Pont Alexandra is a big danger. His latest romp of the field in the Grade 1 Deloitte was mightily impressive.
Jezki has been impressive with grade 1 wins at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown and has been purchased by JP McManus but I would be worried about the break since.
My Tent or Yours was impressive in the Betfair Hurdle but that was a slowly run race and Im just not sure about him.
Un Atout has been mightily impressive but his form has been on very soft going and this will be a different kettle of fish.
I am gonna plump for Melodic Rendezvous and I like the fact they will ride him more handily. The rain will help and his form where he has beat the well regarded Pendra and the well regarded Puffin Billy in his last 3 races is rock solid to me. So he's my bet each way in this race. If he doesn’t line up for this then Champagne Fever.

BB: The Champ laughs at the favourite backers. I can not say this strongly enough he is not a punting proposition. If you’re backing that fella you should consider giving up the game. Seriously. Far too many ifs and buts and holes in the form to take 13/8. In a nutshell I doubt whether his rating is a true representation of his ability. If it is he wins with something in hand but i’m adamant he’s not a 162 horse yet. This horse is 13/8 fav when the best race he’s run in is a grade three hurdle! He’s running against multiple grade one winners for Christ sake. The mind boggles what price he would be if he’d shown some actual form at the top table. Couple that with the fact he’s run 6 times but only won three of those leads me to believe that as good as he is/may be, he’s vulnerable.

So what’s going to beat him?

The Champ has backed Un Atout ante post for small amounts at 16/1 and i won’t be topping up. He could be anything and i’m happy with the price and my exposure as there is the obvious worry that he’s never ridden in a fast run race and has had things his own way thus far. He’s also possibly better suited to a longer contest but on what he’s shown he’s a definite contender. Champagne Fever needs further but will be competitive and the Hill could be a leveler that may let his stamina shine. However, Dodging Bullets is screaming out to me for a trainer that has won this race recently and I will be backing him on the day at the 8/1 mark. He’s already achieved the form you need to win and the third to Darlan LTO is a truly outstanding piece of novice form. Cheltenham tested. Most likely will have Ruby on board. He’s ticking every box and i think he’s got a great chance of winning. Cheltenian would have been a real contender if they’d managed to get him back for two or three prep runs as opposed to just one as he’s certainly got the class.

 

GGW: I love novice hurdle races, I think they often provide great value due to short priced favourites who are still unexposed. This is my favourite race to solve and I will spend a couple of hours looking at it the Monday before Cheltenham. I see lots of people getting excited by the rumours that MTOY is roughly as good as Darlan was, if not better. He’ll have to be win this race though and whilst I admit he has the best form in the book I think he is no price whatsoever. Essentially he’s proven he can run to a mark that’ll put him bang in the mix for this race, but there’s bound to be a couple more in this field who haven’t been afforded that luxury just yet. I always look for horses who have run well at Graded level as plenty of horses can crawl along and then sprint clear but this will be a stiff pace from the off. The one who catches my eye is Dodging Bullets at 10s. Nicholls’ horses weren’t right last year so his Triumph 4th looks strong to me. He reluctantly made most when holding off River Maigue (who was in receipt of 7lbs) at Cheltenham earlier in the season and I think he’ll relish a race of this sort. The lack of a recent run is a negative but there are negatives about the others at the front of the market. Champagne Fever is one I might play on the day once I see where he’s going and who’s taking the ride. He has Festival form, stamina and would improve for good ground. They always go a heck of pace in this race and commit for home early. He’ll stay all the way to the line.

SBC: At the turn of the year I thought that Dodging Bullets was the answer here but the recent performances of My Tent or Yours have raised the bar considerably. I would expect the latter to get the meeting off to a flyer for Mr Henderson.

ROTO: The Festival opener looks traditionally tricky and although I feel MTOY deserves his place at the head of the market after his demolition of the Betfair Hurdle I'm definitely opposing him as this race isn't as cut and dry as the market suggests. Jezki also brings some Grade 1 winning form to the table but a lack of a recent run is a big concern for me and I've backed two in the race in the shape of Dodging Bullets and Un Atout. My main bet is on Dodging Bullets at 14/1 (best price 9s now) and I think it was either Oddy or Cyc who made the excellent point that 'when was the last time such a battle hardened horse such as Dodging Bullets run in the SN'. A second season novice owing to winning last year, Dodging Bullets has already experienced the hustle and bustle of a big field at Cheltenham in the Triumph last year and he's already competed in 5 Graded races. A double winner at the track, his last appearance was a fine 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle on unsuitable ground in a race that wasn't run to suit out of Novice Company and it was a really strong effort. He'll love the strong pace and (hopefully) better ground and I think he's got an excellent chance and is still backable at 9/1. The other horse I've backed is Un Atout at 20/1 who is the complete unknown in the race. He's never come off the bridle in beating two very average fields in testing conditions and it’s a mystery as to how good he is. He's done absolutely nothing wrong to date and it is perhaps significant that he is Gigginstown's only representative and I'm happy with the large price I have secured. However, I do think he's a little on the short side being single figures at present.

BT: My Tent Or Yours is the worthy favourite but with the record of the shorties in this race not being the best ill be taking him on. Dodging Bullets for me. His third behind Darlan with Cinders And Ashes and Countrywide Flame behind is the best form on offer in my opinion. This is wide open as usual though with Un Atout, Jezki and Melodic Rendezvous all dangerous

WF: Another tough renewal of this novices hurdle- MTYO imo is the worthy favourite after his annihilation in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury a few weeks back now. But the race was run to suit him and he probably won’t get it this time. Jezki the 1st of the irish challengers just recently bought by JP McManus is another fascinating runner beating the likes of Waheeb, he was favourite in this race until MTOY won the hurdle @ Newbury, but AP will surely ride MTOY which says something about Jezki and I can’t be having him either. The 2nd Irish Challenger and a horse I haven’t seen very much Un Atout but from what I have seen has a lot of talent. The forgotten horse in the race with some of the best form is proven at the course and more importantly can get up the hill and is not only my bet but Paul Nicholls charity bet Dodging Bullets- Ran better than expected in the triumph last year and altho his wins this season hasn’t been very pretty unlike the the others mentioned in the above- he has won and shows a lot of fight and heart which is important in this race as it will be go,go,go from the start and at 8/1 altho I got him at 12’s e/w is a very decent price. And it is really only the 1st 4 in the betting that will win.

 

The ARKLE Chase​

OD:No disrespect to the other runners, but this looks like boiling down to a match between Simonsig and Overturn and I am firmly in the grey’s camp. I think Overturn’s front-running style will set things up perfectly for Simonsig to pounce on him over the final fence. Donald McCain keeps telling us that Simonsig hasn’t finished 2nd in a Champion Hurdle – correct, but he has sluiced up in a Neptune and looks equally formidable over fences.

TC: Overturn is the most admirable horse you will ever see. People say Simonsig has beaten nothing, but Overturn has hardly had a real test, and I can see Simonsig producing something very smart and drawing away to win this by 7 or 8 lengths. He has stamina and speed- something Paul Nicholls always says you need when you have Grade1 2m chasers. The fact they turned down a Champion Hurdle for this speaks volumes for me.

JL:This appears to be a two horse race, and I'm really looking forward to seeing how this pans out. I have Simonsig in a few doubles with Quevega, so am hoping he can prevail, however it would be fantastic if Overturn did manage to win it, he has been brilliant for the sport, and has been a top horse in both codes. Can't be having Arvika Ligeonnaire at any price, he's not quick enough, and Captain Conan looks to want further. A horse for the 3rd place could be Oscars Well, who is quietly fancied for some place money.

NBThis is a race that is all about Simonsig, who I think is a class above the rest of the field, with possibly Overturn a possible exception. Simonsig looks a monster over fences, almost Sprinter Sacre like, and I think he could well be as good as his stablemate if he continues his impressive form over fences.
Overturn is a very likeable horse, he is strong, he jumps well and he stays up the hill. He ran so well in a Champion Hurdle and if he gets his own way (Arvika to take him on?) he could well make Simonsig pull out all the stops. I however think that at the festival, they will go quick enough and that will play into the strength of Simonsig who I can't see being beaten if he stays upright.

BoSThe bookies think this is a match between Simonsig and Overturn and so do I. Simonsig carried a lofty reputation into Cheltenham last year and more than lived up to those expectations in an awesome display, though I’m not entirely convinced the rest were up to much but he was in another planet to them. Overturn has looked good in his three chases to date but we know all about him from his hurdling career. Lot of miles on the clock and at 9 years old I’d be sceptical if he can win an Arkle but should something amiss happen Simonsig he’ll have nothing left to beat. Tough horse to pass and should like the good ground but if their determined to make it a test, Simonsig stays 2m 5f so I’d expect him to pass him up the run in. In fact due to the lack of depth to this race you could argue that Simonsig offers better value at a similar price to Sprinter Sacre in this last year who faced much stronger opposition than this. The rest don’t matter.

BB: The Champ can only see one winner and that is Simonsig. Overturn is a here and now horse. He’s not improving. Simonsig is. I think Arvika will challenge for the lead which could keep Overturn up to his gallop but could equally lead to him blowing up one or two out. I’ve looked at this over and over and I can’t see Simonsig losing if he jumps round. I’ve had a treble of Quevega, Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre for a very large sum for me.

GGW: This is a fascinating looking match race. I’m on Overturn at 7s and I made him my TTF double point scorer at the start of the season. I think he’s capable of achieving a better mark over fences than he did over hurdles. These comments about Seven Barrows being split as to whether Simonsig or Sprinter Sacre is the better horse are very alarming but Overturn loves it round here and Simonsig, in my opinion, is worth taking on because we can’t be sure he relishes a battle. The only time he’s been involved in a finish was when he lost to Fingal Bay. Overturn is gritty and I can’t wait for this race.

SBC: Although he has only won a couple of small field heats Simonsig and fences look an ideal match and he really does look something special. Expect Overturn to set out in front but Simonsig to be well clear at the finishing line.

ROTO: Not a race I'll be backing anything but this surely is a straight shoot out between Simonsig and Overturn. Two excellent hurdlers, Overturn is going to run his traditional front running race at a strong pace and he's really going to test Simonsig's jumping. Simonsig has yet to have his jumping properly tested when landing two contests in which he wasn't tested in the space of 6 days in December and Overturn's speed is going to place a huge emphasis on his jumping. Similarly, Overturn could easily set up the race ideally for Simonsig and we could see an extremely impressive performance from Henderson's charge. Despite thinking Simonsig is the most likely winner, I would be very tempted to have a sizeable e/w on Overturn if he drifts to 4/1 but I definitely think this a race I'll be sitting back enjoying without making an investment.

BT: Three horse race here. As much as I respect Overturn im sticking with my thought from the start of the season that he just isn’t good enough to beat Simonsig. Some in the Henderson camp think he could be as good as Sprinter Sacre and that’s a frightening thought! Arvika Ligeonneire has to be respected if he can stay on his feet however I cant get away from Simonsig in this one.

WF: WF: Like last year’s renewal there is only one winner. Overturn a horse I like very much and has the biggest heart of all horses at the festival but I can see him coming round the home bend and just teeing it up for Simonsig to jump past him and win on the bridle. I did like the Arvika Ligeonniere but his jumping is not 100% and against the top two in the market it need to be 110%.

 

STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE

OD: Hurricane Fly carries my Ante Post money at 9/2 and I think he is worthy favourite. He looks in much better nick this time around and has taken his races really well. I see Zarkandar and Rock On Ruby as the main challengers and I would be surprised if anything else were to get into it, possibly Binocular based on noises from the Henderson camp. Happy with my position on Hurricane Fly though and if the course does get some rain, then even better.

TC: With a better preparation, I’d be very sweet on Grandouet. I don’t necessarily buy all this bad news around him though at the moment. He is a clean-winded horse who doesn’t require mountains of work to get fit. If the ground is not soft he will have a better turn of foot than all of them. This is a tactical firework waiting to happen because Zark, Fly, and Rock on Ruby will all be on the speed and won’t give an inch. They might end up leaving themselves vulnerable to a late charge, and I think Grandouet fits the bill if fit and well. Soft ground gives Zarkandar an advantage, so lets see how it rides on Tuesday.

JL: The best race of the week for me, and I genuinely think there are 6 or 7 horses in with a chance of winning this. I'll start with Hurricane Fly, and at 7/4 he's not for me. He obviously has to be respected, and if he gets the run of the race, it could be a repeat of 2 years ago, but I'm not willing to invest at that price and take the chance. I just think he's been beating the same old horses in canters round the courses in Ireland and here he meets the toughest field he has ever faced. Zarkandar is the one for me, I think his form this season is 2nd to none, and he has a very similar profile to last years winner Rock On Ruby. Grandouet also has a chance, but recent slightly negative vibes from the stable, and lack of recent run has put me off him. Rock On Ruby will run his race, and will be in the frame, but I feel this is a better renewal than last year and feel he will find one too good. Binocular would not be good enough in a true run race, but could have a chance if its not and turns into a sprint, and I can't be having Cinders and Ashes at any price. Countrywide Flame is my each way horse, and I'm on at 20s. I love this little horse, and although this may be a bet with heart rather than head, a quote from one of the connections of Countrywide Flame was that he's 'a cracking each way bet, and is flying at home', and it seems they were not put off by the defeat at Doncaster by Rock on Ruby. Zarkandar however is the one for me, and hopefully a place for CWF

NB: This is a minefield, we have question marks over all of the field, be it poor runs at last seasons festival, the horses form this year or whether they retain all of their ability. I am looking at Binocular and saying that for me he is the best horse in the race and he is one of the runners who looks overpriced in comparison to some in the race. Cinders And Ashes is a fascinating runner who could spring back to form on better ground and he could do an Overturn here. I still think that Binocular retains his ability, he will love the hill and if they go fast enough he will love the way the race will pan out. A pretty strong selection at a price.

BoS: I was stunned / shocked / dismayed last year. The Champ got beat. This year’s race looks better than last year’s so this year’s race does look hard to call. Rock on Ruby is a tough so and so and will like the sound surface. I’m certain he’s been geared for one race all year and this is it. I thought he ran well first time out when third behind Granduoet and Zarkander and if you’re looking a cast iron top 3 finisher I’d say Rock on Ruby’s the one. For the record I think Darlan was booked to win that fateful day and it’s so very sad he’s not here to line up in this. Zarkander, I can’t have him and in 6 words here’s why: too slow, too slow, too slow. As they say if I was a bookmaker I’d lay him till the cows come home I really would. Unless Cheltenham turns into a bog Zarkander won’t be going anywhere near winning this. Granduoet is of much more interest however. Classy, classy animal who possesses a potent turn of foot, and was second favourite for this last year don’t forget. On the likely decent ground I’d say whoever finishes in front of him wins because I think a slowish gallop will suit him more than most.

Old boy Binocular is sure to have his fans and vibes from Nicky are very positive but he is one that the price has now gone and not one I’d be that keen on anyway. I’m not concerned that he couldn’t get near the Fly first time out as that was basically his racecourse gallop. I’m be much more concerned that in the 3 Champion Hurdles he’s contested he’s disappointed in 2 of them and beat Kyber Kim in the other one. Last year’s novices Countrywide Flame and Cinders and Ashes would probably want to be starting now to win in my opinion.

That leaves Hurricane Fly who still seems to divide opinion amongst race fans. What can be said about him that we don’t already know? Many different views about last year’s race have cropped up. Some say the ground was too quick, some say the gallop too strong, others that Ruby Walsh give him a bad ride. Personally I don’t buy into any of that and to put it bluntly I just think he was 10lbs below his best for whatever reason. Maybe he bounced or there were the training issues that Mullins seems to be hinting at now but what I do know is that he’s the best horse in this race. Not by a huge margin maybe, as I think Granduoet could worry him especially on a lively surface but I can’t turn my back on the Hurricane. With the ground quickening and the weight of 30 years of history on his back I see he’s drifting and I can see 5/2 on the day so hold off till the day. I’m sure should he return into the winners enclosure after the race the reception for him would be rapturous and unforgettable and I for one would love to see it as one Champion Hurdle doesn’t really do this horse justice. Hurricane Fly is my selection ahead of Granduoet and Rock on Ruby an honourable third.

CP: Binocular now 9 years old and was tenderly ridden in defeat last time just cant see him being good enough now to win this so not for me.
Cinders and Ashes doesnt seem to have trained on for me and whilst excuses have been the ground I just think hes not the same horse this year.

Countrywide Flame is a tough horse but not good enough in my eyes to win this, the lack of a recent run for Grandouet worriess me so I will avoid him.

Hurricane Fly has done all asked of him this season but I am gonna oppose him.
Rock on Ruby was impressive last time out at Doncaster and poses a real danger. The one for me in this though is Zarkandar. Proven at Cheltenham, won the triumph previously, was fifth last year but Nicholls had that coughing episode hanging over his stable and I dont think he was on song that day.. his last run at Wincanton looked impressive to me so he is my tip for this.
One who hasnt been mentioned by anyone is Balder Succes his trainer has been clear in that the horse doesnt like big fields so dont be surprised if he runs a very big race!!

BB: The Champ thinks this is a hell of an exciting race. Not many runners but what is left is generally very classy. To be fair if one of them has been trained to the minute they could easily win as all of the main protagonists are capable of running in the mid 160’s. The horse i’ve gone for is the favourite Hurricane Fly because he’s the only horse in the field I think is capable of running in the 170‘s and I can’t see a pace angle. He’ll be ridden a lot handier than last year and i think his pace will put this to bed after the last hurdle. Rock On Ruby is going to be forced to make the running. If that is the case Noel is going to have to ride the race of his life to set the right fractions and I think it’s more likely than not that he won’t get it absolutely right. Zarkandar is the threat for me but i’d be a lot keener on his chances if there were more runners.

GGW: This looks a cracking renewal. There shouldn’t be as much pace as last year but something will take it on so it won’t be a farce either. For me Zarkandar has the single best piece of form from this season out the main protagonists, his defeat of Prospect Wells when giving him lumps and needing the run. His victory over Rock on Ruby and Grandoeut probably suited none of the trio but it’s promising that he was still the first home. I don’t think the pace will be stiff enough for Rock on Ruby and the race won’t play out as nicely for him this year either. I don’t buy into the Grandoeut hype for one minute, nor do I rate Binocular. I’m noticing growing confidence behind Cinders & Ashes and he might surprise a few with a big run. Hurricane Fly is hard to read on bare form because he tends to beat the same not all that good horses over in Ireland but I do think there is something there. Ruby is very, very bullish and confidence seems high. My suggestion for this race is to back Zarkandar to win with Paddy Power’s money back special if the Fly wins.

 

SBC: I really can’t have either Hurricane Fly or Rock on Ruby and instead can see the finish being fought out by Grandouet and Zarkander. In my view this pair will have too much toe for the rest of the field and I can see them pulling clear up the hill. Betting wise a ‘Reverse Exacta’ on Grandouet and Zarkander may be the answer.

ROTO: This looks a very exciting renewal which has been unfortunately marred by Darlan's death and I think a lot hinges on whether or not Hurricane Fly is back to the horse who won this 2 years ago. At 9 years of age, I couldn't be backing him after disappointing massively last year at a track where he isn't entirely at home. Another interesting thing to note is that Shark Hanlon, who used to work for Mullins, has been vehemently against Hurricane Fly in preview nights and, having shared the same stance last year, that would certainly be a major worry if I was a backer. I feel reigning champion Rock On Ruby has been harshly criticised for doing nothing wrong last year and although I would be a little surprised if retained his crown I wouldn't totally dismiss him. I'd be against Grandouet as he missed the Kingwell Hurdle last month and I don't think he'll be 100% fit. One thing that stuck out to me last year was how quickly Paul Nicholls stated that the CH came a year too soon for Zarkandar despite training the winner and he was also reportedly ill after winning the Betfair last year. If he's at the front heading around the home turn I think he'll be very tough to pass and if I had a gun to my head he'd be my selection. However, he doesn't offer much appeal at the price and I think its another no-bet race for me.

BT: Ill start this by saying my confident selection would have been Darlan and its a crying shame he isnt here to contest this race. As it is this race revolves around Hurricane Fly. Came into last years race as the hot favourite and finished a very disappointing 3rd behind Rock On Ruby and Overturn. He arguably wasnt given the best of rides and is historically unsuited by a strong early pace which he is unlikely to have to contend with here as there is no obvious pace angle to the race. He has looked back to near his best this year but has only beaten the same horses that it beats every year. I really want to take him on here but im not so sure i can.

Zarkandar finished 5th in this race last year and has won all three races this year however his performance in winning his last race didnt strike me as one of a champion hurdle winner. Grandouet would have been my selection however he has had a very interrupted preparation. If he comes here ready to do himself justice then i think he is a danger to all. Binocular seems to be a bit past his best and im not sure Cinders And Ashes or Countrywide Flame are good enough to win this. Rock on Ruby hasnt looked as good this year and i dont think the race will be run to suit this year.

Selection wise its KHYBER KIM (66/1) ran a stormer on his comeback a few weeks back finishing 4 lengths behind Zarkandar. That was his first run for almost two years having previously finished second in this race in 2010. If he comes on for that run and still retains his ability he could sneak a place and at his price im willing to take a chance on him each way.

WF: WF: A wide open race- unfortunately without the talented Darlan who looked like a winner in my eyes. Mullins and Ruby say the Hurricane is back to his very best but the stats against 9yos in this race are not very good. But he is obviously a class horse and if any horse can beat the stats he is sure to be the one. He has a turn of foot like no other hurdler and he is proven up the hill, with Ruby staying loyal to him, surely again this must say something about the chances of Zarkandar and with the formidable duo of the trainer & jockey he will be very hard to bead. Binocular most recently has just started to shorten but my 14/1 e/w bet looks very good at the moment. He had an awful run (some say it was very questionable and controversial from AP) and his record 1st time is atrocious! He will love the drying ground and he loves Cheltenham. Last year again he was given a shocking ride from AP I have no idea what he was doing. But the sounds coming out of the Henderson yard is very good and I feel he is being underestimated this time round. If his jumping is up to scratch he too will go very close; Zarkandar like his stable mate Dodging bullets in the Supreme has some good form beating 2 of the top 5 in the market, yes he hasn’t won pretty again like DB but he has won and beat some talented horses who themselves are vying for the cup. Rock On Ruby who Harry Fry is expecting big things again, should run well but the best he will get will be placed!

 

THE QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE​

OD: Sacre. Simples. Maybe play the exacta with Sizing Europe if odds of 1-4 don’t appeal.

TC: Sprinter Sacre to win by over 10 lengths.

JL: The Black Aeroplane, Sprinter Sacre, will not get beat, no matter who lines up against him. Hope Cue Card turns up here, to beef up the opposition, and if Mail De Bievre is to be supplemented it could be interesting but this could cut up into a tiny field. No bet race for me, although I do have Sprinter in a couple of multiples.

NB: Race has fallen apart because of Sprinter Sacre, I cannot see him getting beat and I wouldn't care to bet in a place market on the race. I will watch him win and hope that he is the superstar that he looks to be. I look forward to seeing the monster.

BoS:It doesn’t seem right to be so disinterested in a race featuring Nation Hunt’s top attraction but that’s how I feel about this race. Nothing has appeared as a credible opponent to Sprinter Sacre and we’ll have to wait till next year to hopefully measure his greatness against stablemate Simonsig! Sizing Europe would have been a credible opponent but he has a race to win the next day for us.

CP: Not a lot I need to say on this one as its Sprinter Sacre all the way! The best horse Barry Garaghty has ridden and just an awesome horse.
The fascinating one in this is Mail De Bievre and he looks a bit of a beast of a horse himself. Cant see him having the jumping prowess to cope with Sprinter sacre but he may give Sprinter something to think about...

GGW: I hope that Sizing Europe runs here so we can see how far Sprinter Sacre beats him by! Mail De Bievre is the unknown quantity but he’ll have to be very good to even get Sprinter Sacre off the bridle.

SBC: Surely only a lunatic would oppose Sprinter Sacre here. No other animal has ever got within half a dozen lengths of Mr Henderson’s superstar, over fences, and that should remain the case after Wednesday’s showpiece and expect more superlatives to be heaped on the horse afterwards. A true, true great.

ROTO: Sprinter Sacre wins barring a fall. Enough said.

WF: Two words for you Sprinter Sacre- the horse is a machine!


THE RSA CHASE

OD: With Rocky Creek not declared I'm going on the other Nicholls runner Unioniste. The race looks weak in general and this lad brings some very nice form to the table. Jumps, travels, stays. At the current odds of 11/2 a stonking e/w bet.

TC: I have an exchange voucher for Lord Windermere at 84/1. I sniffed him out when he caught my eye in Ireland running over an inadequate trip early in the season. He will adore the better ground at Cheltenham on the Wednesday, and Jim Culloty thinks he will stay and stay. He reminds me a little bit of Edredon Bleu- jumps straight as anything and will keep trying and responding for you. He is a lively e/w outsider.

JL: Dynaste looks to be the form horse in the race, and on his Feltham win should be a shorter price than he is. However this race has a funny way of throwing up a surprise, and Grands Crus and Long Run are recent 'good things' to have been turned over. Feltham winners have a shocking record in this race, and none have gone on to win the RSA. Having said that Dynaste looks to have a touch of class about him, and may just be better than the others. Boston Bob is next in the market, but I think he may head to the 4m chase, and I don't think he'd be good enough to win the RSA in any case. Ruby Walsh is very sweet on the chances of Unioniste, and his enthusiasm has rubbed off on me, and I am leaning toward backing this horse at the available 8/1

NB: I am not a Dynaste fan for this race, he is a very good horse but I am worried that he isn't battle hardened enough for the war of attrition that the RSA becomes. Unioniste is a harder horse despite his young age and I would prefer him over Dynaste, however I really quite like the two Mullins horses Back In Focus and Boston Bob. The latter didn't impress me with how he looked at the festival last season, but he clearly is a better horse on better ground and he looks to be coming good before a trip to the festival, whilst Back In Focus is a tough horse who is a good professional. Mullins has a strong hand. I may put the bet on before final declarations on this one, if Dynaste comes out and goes for the Jewson the market could collapse.

BoS: Roll back the clock 12 months and you’d be forgiven for thinking history is repeating with another David Pipe trained grey heading the market in the shape of Dynaste. The jury is still out on him with me for this race. Very good horse and maybe it’s just the memory of Grand Crus in my head that’s making me think I can’t have faith in him to stay as well as he’d need to. I’d fancy him in the Jewson big style though. Grinders tend to win this and I’m not sure he is that. It looks like Willie Mullins will run Boston Bob in this rather than Back in Focus but I’m not mad keen on Boston Bob either. Should the heavens open I’d happily chance Back in Focus in this as he’ll fly home but that seems unlikely. No strong fancy in this race I’m afraid.

GGW: If Dynaste was mine I’d send him at the Jewson but I think he’ll be tough to beat in either. I’d back him for the Jewson which I don’t think is that strong but not for this. We’ve seen festival upsets too many times now in these sorts of races. I think Boston Bob might be done for toe even over this trip and over fences. That said if you want to back something that you know will get the trip he’s the one. Unioniste, I think, poses a bigger threat to the jolly and I’ve heard Ruby will ride him and not Boston Bob. Nothing else catches the eye and if pushed I’d say that at 8/1 Unioniste looks a reasonable e/w alternative in a race where it can pay to oppose the favourite.

SBC: Dynaste has many trends against him in this heat but despite this I am struggling to find any serious opponent to him. He has looked very good in his three Chases to date whereas his rivals have all either finished behind him already or have major question marks against them. Providing the word ‘good’ remains in the going description I think he will win convincingly.

ROTO: Was very much shaping into a race that killed careers before Bob's Worth's victory last year with the 3 previous winners before him Cooldine, Weapons Amnesty and Boston's Angel never winning another race and it definitely isn't a race that is necessarily won by the best horse. Dynaste has an awful lot of stats to overcome in that not one of the 18 Feltham Chase winners have gone on to win this race and the last 49 winners have run that calender year. I think you have to be against him on the basis of those stats although he's been clearly the most impressive horse in the field to date. One I'm tempted to back is Houblon Des Hobeaux 33/1 as he looks a very stout stayer and he's put in two good performances the last twice. I don't for one minute think he's the best horse in the race but given that the RSA does not always pan out that way I think he's worth a small e/w dabble.

BT: Rocky Creek would have been my choice here but he is no longer in the race. Ive been trying my hardest to oppose Dynaste here but he is the one im going with after much deliberation. Hoping he has too much pace for Boston Bob who will undoubtedly be closing all the time near the line. Paul Nicholls thinks Unioniste has a big chance but he has already been put in his place by Dynaste this season and I think Dynaste is the safe bet here, im confident he is a better horse than Grands Crus, a horse I have always thought was overrated!

WF: With Dynaste looking to run in the Jewson my money will be on Unioniste. Lightly raced 5yr and showed his class when winning at Cheltenham, earlier back in the season. Again is proven round the course and not been out the top 3 in his last two runs! Boston Bob is a very interesting runner, no doubt he has some class but he does have some faults, he was beaten when a hot favourite in last year’s Alber t Bartlett. An interesting e/w bet will be the inform Venetia Williams runner Houblon Des Obeuax, stays for ever if the ground was like a bog he would be higher in the market but holds good form beating the likes of Pouganch, running well behind harry topper and only being just beaten by Court In Motion. But even if Dynaste runs in this race I like Unioniste.

 

NEPTUNE novice hurdle​

OD: Looking likely to be the best of the novice hurdles at this year’s festival. I can’t be having Pont Alexandre at the prices – I’m wary of novice form on Irish heavy ground and don’t think it translates well to Cheltenham (see Boston Bob last year) – and I think the prize is going to England this year. I really like both The New One and Jonjo’s Taquin De Seuil and those would be my 2 against the field. I will wait until the day and see who turns up and looks best in the parade ring.
TC: They keep talking about this Pont Alexandre but I look at form and I simply don’t like his price. They don’t match. Visually impressive yes, will he stay? Yes. However, winning from the front at Cheltenham is slightly different. Not much love for Rule The World according to many people, but one poor run against Our Vinnie aside (outstayed), he looks strong. Jumped fantastic LTO and will improve for the pace, and the ground at Cheltenham. Hot race though. Both will make good chasers next year either way!


JL: Pont Alexandre looks to be the Irish talking horse this year, and to be fair on the form he's shown in Ireland would have a chance, but The New One looked electric at Warwick 2 starts ago, and was certainly not disgraced behind the very smart At Fishers Cross. I think Sam Twiston-Davies admitted he got the ride slightly wrong, and I think he'll go close. I've backed him at 4/1. I don't think Taquin de Seuil or Rule The World are good enough, but Puffin Billy, Champagne Fever and Chatterbox are all worth a mention at decent prices if they turn up. The New One quite confidently for me though.

NB: The New One is a very good horse, I just wish they would run him in the Supreme. I thought he was outstayed by At Fishers Cross last time, and he is going to have to go faster earlier on spring ground in a big field. He isn't one for me. At Fishers Cross needs to jump with fluency, I would worry that in a big field he could be done by his jumping, and I think when they go with speed he could produce errors.
Pont Alexander is a big horse, will be a better chaser and is another that I would suggest is beatable in a race like this. He is a classy sort and one I am looking forward to when chasing in the future. Taquin Du Seuil has impressed me this season, he looks to have a good engine, is built to hurdle and has been smooth at his hurdles. I would love Bondage to run in the race, I think he is a tough horse who will not be too far away at a massive price.

BoS: Two big reputations going on the line here and I’m very much in the Pont Alexandre camp, though very quick ground may worry me slightly as he looks like a staying chaser in the making. The New One looked to have the world at his feet before his last race but is he a bit soft? Tarquin du Seuil looks like a soft ground animal to me so he’s of no interest without a deluge. Rule the World was flattered against Champagne Fever and will probably come up short. Really like At Fishers Cross but he looks Albert Bartlett bound and should be hard to beat in that with his strong course form and proven stamina. Pont Alexandre all the way for me but he’s a very poor price now and that’s mainly on trainer comments rather than form. Should be a race to watch and savour though as we may witness the birth of a future star.

GGW: I am very, very wary of the bullish confidence behind Pont Alexandre but you surely can’t back a novice at 7/4 in this sort of race? That said if he’s streets clear of other Mullins Novices then on all known form there aren’t many who should be able to get near him. I was at trials day recently and I don’t think The New One handled the ground. I think he’ll improve a lot for better ground. If My Tent Or Yours scoots home in the festival opener I may well side with Taquin Du Seuil who ran him close when giving weight and can be backed at 6s (so e/w option) . I’m pretty undecided really.

SBC: The New One has sound course form to his name but despite this I can not see him being good enough to match Pont Alexandre. Mr Mullins’ charge has been imperious in winning a Grade 1 and a Grade 2 across the water and looks potentially very exciting.

ROTO: A race I'll be leaving well and truly alone as I think Pont Alexandre will take an awful lot of beating but he's too short for me to back at 7/4. The New One would have posed a significant threat but you can't back him now with the illness surrounding Nigel Twiston-Davies' yard. Taquin Du Seuil brings some very decent form to the table and should provide strong opposition but he's too short for me at 6s. I don't get the hype surrounding Rule The World at all. What has he done? Beaten a very average Minsk, a sick Champagne Fever, a regressed Joncol and he was beaten in a battle by Our Vinnie. Couldn't have him at any price.

WF: One of my naps for the festival- Point Alexandre- a formidable, monster horse that Willie Mullins has a lot of promise and a very bright future for. The New One- who like PA is a rising star in his stable had an easy ride before losing at Cheltenham to At Fishers Cross, and they probably found out more from him losing than all the winning, the ground was not in his favour and this looks like a mouth-watering contest if NTD has him at his best.

 

JEWSON NOVICE CHASE

OD: Captain Conan looks an uneasy favourite in the race and he is by no means bomb-proof so I’m happy to take him on with Tom George’s Module. He has 2 wins to his name on heavy ground this winter, both times staying on well over shorter than the Jewson trip. Crucially, he has also shown his liking for the Cheltenham hill with a resolute victory in a handicap hurdle a year ago against some nice types. I think he looks like just the sort of classy, scopey individual who will go well here.
NB: This is all about entries, I think Dynaste should run in this, and if he does he will take all the beating. If he doesn't run, I would expect the Irish to take a strong grip of this, with whichever horse Willie Mullins sends.

BoS: Yet another race with uncertainty as to who will take their place. As stated earlier should Dynaste line up here I’d think he’d be rock solid as he has all the form in the book to win this. If he doesn’t your probably looking at Captain Conan as the likely favourite and he didn’t impress me in his prep run the last day, as much as I’m sure he’ll improve for it. The second that day Third Intention always travels like a good horse but again may wilt up the hill so can’t see him winning. Aupcharlie jumps well and keeps getting chinned at the end of 3 miles so this looks tailor made for him and he’d be my selection assuming Dynaste lines up elsewhere.

GGW: I’d be sweet on Dynaste if he turns up here but I’m going to assume he won’t. I’m keen to take on Captain Conan. He’s undoubedtly a good horse but I think there’s some hype around him and, coupled with the fact he has a leading trainer, he’s too short in my book and worth opposing. What I take him on with I don’t quite know at this stage!

SBC: Captain Conan has never really convinced me and I can seeing him struggling big time to hold off Aupcharlie who should benefit enormously by stepping down in distance after a couple of near misses in Graded contests at 3 miles. Mr Mullins could have the winner once more following on from Sir Des Champs in 2012.

ROTO: Not a strong opinion on the race. Looks like Dynaste is turning up here and deserves his place as favourite. I'll probably plump for Module each way on the day.

BT: A very poor renewal this year. Captain Conan didn’t impress me last time out but in truth, the opposition in this race isn’t particularly strong. If it runs and can stay on his feet the Mikael D’Haguenet must have a chance at a big price. If I was pushed for a selection it would be Argocat. Won impressively last time out at Limerick and at five years old, is still open to plenty of improvement.

WF: Captain Conan could be the pick be the pick of the bunch here at 4/1, very unlikely they will put him against Simonsig in the arkle and is a very good price! He had a hard fought victory at sandown lto and he won not like a 2/5 shot but he pulled out all the stops and won! He has a big scopey jump and is quick too and I fancy him against the rest of the field and the head lad at Henderson yard thinks a lot of him as one of the stables stars and that’s saying a lot with the class of horses he has! One e/w punt maybe benefficent @ 16’s his victory over in Ireland has been dismissed as Arvika Ligeonniere fell but he still beat a good horse in Oscars Well. He is a solid jumper and stayer and may jump himself in to a place

THE RYANAIR CHASE​

OD: Again a tremendous contest in prospect here and there are a number of horses I like, so it will be a case of who actually lines up on the day. Cue Card, First Lieutenant and Grands Crus would be my 3 against the field at the moment although there are plenty of others with very lively chances. I would love to see Grands Crus bounce back to form and this certainly looks more his trip so if he lines up I’ll likely be on him.

TC: First Lieutenant. He is brilliant at Cheltenham and the promising thing this year is that he has mixed it with really good company and run well in conditions that don’t usually suit. He peaks at Cheltenham and I think he will win this for the sponsor and owner. Smart horse.

JL: This race is often derided in some quarters, but in its short history it has provided some great contests, and I think this years race as the potential to be one the best races at the festival. Cue Card is worthy favourite on his best form, and has never been out of the frame at the festival. Will he go to the QMCC? You would imagine First Lieutenant will turn up for this, given that the owners have Sir Des Champs for the Gold Cup, and he'd look to be in with a shout, but he is a horse I've never really warmed to despite having a very good festival record (beating Rock On Ruby 2 years ago who I'd backed to win a fortune didn't help!). I've backed Sizing Europe at 6/1 and if he rocks up here instead of the QMCC he will go off at 7/2 at best. I'd love to see this fella win this race, and think he is the classiest horse in the field, his form has been good, and even though he's 11, shows no signs of his ability fading. Riverside Theatre made a load of mistakes last year, yet still managed to win under an inspired Geraghty, but he won't get away with that sort of performance this time around. Menorah would have a chance on his best form, and is too big at 12/1, he would probably be my each way selection at this point. Champion Court always seems to find at least one too good as does For Non Stop. Others at bigger prices of interest are Albertas Run at 20s and Finians Rainbow, if he turns up, at 16s.

NB: I would love Alberta's Run to win, but he isn't going to and I think the race is wide open for something like Cue Card to come good on the big stage. Would have plumped for old rogue Grands Crus, but todays omission means that won't be the case this year.

BoS This race has really become a bit of a big deal over the years and for my money is Thursday’s standout race by a long way. All depends who lines up but I’ll assume they all do for this preview. Cue Card is a horse I like but I don’t think he should be favourite as I’m not entirely convinced he’ll find enough at the business end and is slightly soft for a battle royale like this so he’s out. First Lieutenant will be coming here I’m certain and he looks like good ground and this trip are perfect for him so whoever beats him wins. Already has his festival win and a second under the belt so will be tough ask to beat him. I still can’t work out how Riverside Theatre won last year and I was mad against him this year but I haven’t seen the same horse this year so again the marker will cross him out. Menorah is harder to rule out but I’m not sure his jumping is good enough to win this but he could place should he jump well. Champion Court is another who could get placed as the trip, course and ground should be ideal but is he just shy of top class? I suspect he is.

Sizing Europe a massively confident bet if he turned up here.

GGW: This is between Sizing Europe and Cue Card for me, assuming they both turn up. I would fancy Cue Card all day long over 2 miles and to be honest I think he’ll be good enough to hold off an ageing Sizing Europe over this trip on decent ground. If they go off at a breakneck speed it’ll play into the hands of First Lieutenant but I’m not deserting Cue Card now. Colours nailed to the mast!

SBC: Difficult puzzle to solve because, at the time of writing, there is still so much uncertainty regarding who exactly will make it to post for the contest. I do think though that if First Lieutenant runs here he will be tough to beat. Although the Irish raider is without a win for over a year some of his placed form is out of the top drawer and he should not be inconvenienced by stepping down in trip.

 

ROTO: If Sizing Europe shows up then this looks a fantastic race and although I don't advise this often but surely First Lieutenant is the e/w bet of the meeting at 9/2? I'd be utterly shocked if he's out of the first 3 home and I strongly believe he'll win this well. A winner of the Neptune and runner up to current Gold Cup Favourite Bob's Worth last year, First Lieutenant has enough form in the book to warrant his place in the Cheltenham showpiece but looks certain to turn up in the race sponsored by his owner Michael O'Leary. He has tremendous form this year when again chasing home Bob's Worth in the Hennessey before being defied by a head by Tidal Bay in the Irish Hennessey where he finished in front of Sir Des Champs who wouldn't have peaked. He's vying for favouritism with Cue Card who I don't think jumps well enough to win this and I'm not even sure he'll last home 2m5f up the hill. For those looking for a lively outsider, China Rock 20/1 has always travelled extremely well in his races over further and he travelled as if he would play a massive role in the finish at of years Gold Cup before finding zilch when asked. I don't think he stays that far and 2m5f could prove ideal for him. A Mouse Morris 1-2 wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if both lined up (although I suspect one will go for GC).

BT: If he turns up then Sizing Europe will be the one for me. If he doesn’t I think its Cue Cards race to lose. If Menorahs jumping holds up he could make the frame as could Albertas Run who never seems to run a bad race and ran a stormer in this race last year. First Lieutenant is a danger if he goes for this however I think the 2m5f trip is slightly on the short side for him.

WF: Once again a mouth-watering race, Cue Card was very impressive at Ascot lto but before that he was very off on the king George making some near race-ending mistakes. But he won very well at ascot and obviously 3m is not for him. Riverside Theatre another horse who makes a lot of appeal he also runs at well at Cheltenham. Sizing Europe venturing new territory over 2m5f he has shown he can cope with the distance against some mediocre but against this lot will be a different test. Albertas Run aka Mr Reliable, loves the course and looked very well when having his racecourse gallop the other day and apparently was acting like a 7/8yo. But cases could be made for quite a few other runners Menorah, First Lieutenant, and Finians Rainbow if showing any form near his best.

 

WORLD HURDLE

OD: Whatever people say, the race is poorer for Big Buck’s absence and I’ve a feeling that victory, whoever it goes to, may feel a little hollow. I think Reve De Sivola has done absolutely nothing wrong since reverting back to hurdles but there are rumours of him having had a setback. Let’s see. Otherwise I may go for his conqueror in the Neptune 3 years ago, Peddler’s Cross.

TC:Well, until Wednesday my bet, NAP, value, and certainty of the meeting was Monksland. I felt there was absolutely nothing that could touch him in the race as they all had doubts around stamina and whether they were at their best fitness or form wise. Oscar Whisky hasn’t stayed, doesn’t stay, and will never stay, so I’ll have a small bet on Peddlers Cross, whose Neptune win in 2010 indicates he does have some stamina, and at least he has the speed to get himself in the mix turning in. Not confident though.
JL: Obviously the absence of Big Bucks is a massive blow to this race, and of course the whole festival. My annual bet on this fella to get me out of a hole won't be happening unfortunately, but his omission does leave the race wide open. I don't think Oscar Whisky gets the trip, so he won't be winning, I can't have Reve De Sivola either, don't think he'll be good enough. Monksland would be in with a shout, as would Solwhit, and Bog Warrior. But my strongest fancies for the race are Peddlers Cross, if he can return to his best form, and Get Me Out Of Here. Both have run well at the festival previously, and would have a decent chance at very backable prices. Of the outsiders I would be interested in Fiveforthree at 33s and Celestial Halo at 50s.

NB: A race that revolves around a horse that doesn't run, if Big Bucks was in the race he would win. Simple as that. He isn't running and that means the race is wide open for a new World Hurdle winner to be crowned, and I cannot pick the race apart. I wonder if Monksland would have been the one to be with, but I just wonder if the race could be ripped apart by something at a massive price taking them on from the front. Dare I say something like Cross Kennon could spring a surprise at massive odds.

BoS: Is it just me underwhelmed by this line up? As trappy a race as you’ll see this year I’ve doubts over the lot of them. If Solwit lines up, which I’m not sure he will, I’d probably play him each way on the hope he’ll stay.

CP: Oscar Whisky who has previously finished 3rd in a Champion Hurdle and finished 2nd to Reve De Sivola in the Cleeve still has questions to answer over staying power... I think he will last home better this time especially if the ground is good or good to soft. I reckon he will find one or two too good though...
Peddlers Cross is interesting ... 2nd to Hurricane Fly in a champion but doesnt seem the same horse to me so Im opposing.
Reve de Sivola has been the best staying hurdler this season and has looked impressive on heavy going.. whilst he has form on good ground around Cheltenham I believe he is better with cut in the ground.
my tip for the race is Smad Place. Finished 3rd in the race last season and better ground will suit this horse. Finished 2nd in the Long walk Hurdle to Reve De Sivola on bottomless ground but the ground will be a lot better this time and I see big improvement. Its also worth noting Smad Place was only 5 last year so Im expecting a very good run. Smad Place each way....!!


GGW: Reve De Sivola is the 2nd horse in my antepost portfolio and I’m on at 5s. Oscar Whisky didn’t stay last year and I don’t think he will this year. I think he’s actually a better horse on soft and he couldn’t win on Trials Day. Reve De Sivola ran 2nd in the Neptune on good ground, he loves it round here. The likes of Smad Place et al worry me more than Oscar Whisky and I might well cover something e/w on the day, especially if Oscar Whisky is well supported on course. Worried by some very negative reports re Reve De Sivola recently though.

SBC: I believe that the 1-2 from the Cleeve Hurdle will finish 1-2 here although in a different order from January. Oscar Whisky has been dominant for a couple of seasons now at 20 furlongs and last time out proved his stamina for 3 miles. This latter attribute will see him ridden more confidently in the World Hurdle and I think he will have settled matters by the last. Expect the tough Reve De Sivola to outstay the rest.

ROTO:

This looks an awful, awful renewal and is one of the most winnable races at Cheltenham in my opinion. None of these horses would make Big Bucks sweat. I am very sweet on Paul Nicholls' Wonderful Charm who I've managed to secure at fancy prices and I think he could be a little bit special. We've only seen him once on British shores but I thought he oozed class when winning the Grade 2 Persian War Novices Hurdle at Chepstow back in October where he had to be niggled on various occasions over the 2m4f trip but he showed real class to draw away and win comfortably in the end. Ruby Walsh got off saying he had an issue with his breathing and his subsequent wind op will clearly bring him on a lot. Granted, the jump from winning a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle to the World Hurlde at the Cheltenham Festival is huge and a lot has to be taken on faith but I just have a strong gut feeling that this is a very, very good horse. He'll have to buck 5 year old trend but if that stat is ever going to fall then it will be this year.

BT: No Big Bucks means this is probably the most competive of the grade 1s at the festival if not the highest standard. If the word soft is in the going description then Bog Warrior will be my choice in this, he is a horse ive always liked and I think he can win this. If the ground is good however my choice has to be Oscar Whisky. Proved he stayed the trip last time when just touched off by Reve De Sivola but I think on better ground he can reverse the placings.

WF: Obviously the absentee of Big Bucks is a huge loss to the race, but it makes it that bit more interesting. The more the drying ground comes the more this will go in the favour of Oscar Whiskey, with every run he has at this distance, he gets that little bit closer. Other claims can be made for Reve De Sivola already beaten Oscar Whiskey and is a proven stayer, like wise with Get Me Out Of Here but hasn’t been showing the form of last few years, Bog Warrior solid stayer and good jumper whether he has the class is a different question, and how could I forget Quevega who surely won’t run in both the mare (who she is a certainty to win) and then this, would a marvellous training performance and a great effort from the horse to if she was to run in this!

 

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES HURDLE​

OD: Since its inception as the Spa Novices hurdle in 2005 the race has been won twice by Jonjo O’Neil with Black Jack Ketchum and Wichita Lineman and I think he could have a very decent shout again this year with Cloudy Copper. This powerful grey is 2 from 2 over hurdles, including a comprehensive victory over Hold On Julio at Kempton, giving 6lbs to the Alan King horse in eye-catching style.
TC: If he runs then I think Road To Riches looks a horse with a huge engine so I’d be interested to see him in an Albert Bartlett for Gigginstown. Other than that though, no real fancies for me.

JL: Really like the look of At Fishers Cross for this, at 5/1, he's in with a great chance of bagging this race for the lovely Rebecca Curtis. Ballycasey is another horse the Irish have been banging on about, but I've not seen him run as yet so can't comment on him currently. Of the others I would be interested in African Gold, and Gevrey Chambertin.

GGW: Don’t like anything at the head of the betting, think we could be in for a surprise in this race. Our Vinnie stays and stays so I’ll give him a tentative nod. His trainer knows how to win at the festival but I can’t take these races too seriously till I know which horses are definitely running and which horse the stable jockey will be on.

SBC: I think one may have slipped under the radar in a race which may not take much winning. Cloudy Copper has won both his hurdling starts to date and in the process proved he has stamina in abundance allied to a decent turn of foot. The stable have won this twice in recent years and Cloudy Copper could make it a hat-trick.

ROTO: I backed Ballycasey at 12/1 in the aftermath of his last win and he's my idea of the most likely winner having been very impressive in his 2 hurdles starts to date. However, the Albert Bartlett doesn't necessarily go to the best horse as seen when the (legendary) Berties Dream won it back in 2010 and you need a horse who stays very, very well - which will be even more important if the race comes up soft. Of those who fit that bill, the rapidly improving handicapper African Gold looks like he'd stay all day and he may be one to consider in testing conditions. Although a little weak on Betfair at present, I think Road To Riches looks a fascinating contender who I've been impressed with. Other than falling on his Point debut at the first fence, Noel Meade's Road To Riches has yet to come off the bridle in his 4 other starts (one a P2P) and he's impressed me a lot. Noel Meade's Cheltenham record isn't great but I don't really see why he wouldn't run given that Gigginstown don't look to have another runner in the race and 14/1 looks a decent e/w price.

BT: I don’t particularly like this race from a betting point of view. At Fishers Cross won well last time and is the one im leaning towards but I have no real confident pick on this one. If Utopie Des Bordes turns up then he must have a chance. I also think Broadway Buffalo could maybe sneak a place if he turns up at a big price.

WF: A race I haven’t really looked at although my money will be on Gevrey Chambertin 10/1 looks a very good price Have backed him from the beginning, and will carry on looks more impressive than his brother going over hurdles and 10/1 is a cracking e/w price. At Fishers Cross did very well to beat The New One but I just cant be having him again- Nicky Hendersons runner Utopie des bordes holds some good form and is a very useful horse but how good he actually we don’t know. African Gold is a horse that keeps getting better in class, and this is another upgrade in class but the stable seems to have quite abit hope about him.

JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE

OD: I was very impressed by Our Conor and I think it will take a very good one to lower his colours. Nicky Henderson’s Rolling Star may well bee good enough and on paper I have it between these 2, with preference just for Our Conor at this stage.
TC: Rolling Star for me looks a really smart hurdler and his jumping was electric on debut,and more importantly he should improve for the ground. I think this is Michael Buckleys best chance of a winner and he has made all the right noises at Seven Barrows since he arrived.
NB: A race that is all about the form of Nicky Henderson's Rolling Star, Paul Nicholls' Far West and Our Connor of Dessie Hughes. I think the former is going to be the best horse in time, he was superbly impressive last time out and I think he is one that could be top class. Far West is an experienced horse who has been given the perfect preparation for the race, however I think the race will expose the stamina of the field more than he has had to face so far and I think Our Connor is the one to be with. His form is rock solid, he was impressive last time and I think he is a courageous horse who battles it out. I like him a lot.

GGW: For every Irish ‘good thing’ there’s at least as many hype horses. Irish horses have a dreadful record in this race and I’m opposing Our Connor. Far West, to me, looks the best of the leading contendes, he stays, he has a turn of foot and he represents a yard who know how to win this race. I think Rolling Star is destined for a huge future, he has that touch of class and won with any amount in hand on Trials Day. I can actually see him winning this race cosily in my mind but I can also see him being done for a bit of experience and I can’t back him at current price. At larger odds I will be keeping half an eye on flat-bred Ruacana who might improve for good ground.

SBC: Far West, Our Connor and Rolling Star all look exceptional juveniles but I’m going to side with the latter to give Mr Henderson his sixth win in this race. Rolling Star was most impressive at Cheltenham on his UK debut back in January and a reproduction of that form will make him very hard to beat in the 4YO championship event.

ROTO: I was very keen on Kashmir Peak for this who I have backed at 33/1 but he doesn't come here with an ideal preparation having unseated on his last start. I'm not as optimistic as I was a few months ago but I certainly think he'll run a big race if turning up and I still think he can win. Our Conor has been nothing but impressive for Dessie Hughes this season and would be my idea of the most likely winner but us Irish don't have a good record in this race. The front 3 in the market could easily fill the first 3 places home but I wouldn't put anyone off backing Kashmir Peak e/w at 16/1

BT: Our Conor, one of my main fancies for the festival is my pick here. I respect Rolling Star and Far West but ive been very impressed with Our Conor and think he will win this. Fatcatinthehat could also run well at a decent price.

WF: Will only be about the top 3 in the market, imo Our Conor will not get up the hill- which leave Henderson vs Nicholls. Imo Far West will triumph in the triumph. He has a turn of foot and shows he has character when lto he had to run from the front then he turned the pace on and the rest couldn’t keep up. Beating River Maigue who himself is a not fool and is up there for the supreme himself. But have always like this horse and 9/2 looks like a very good price. Rolling Star too was very impressive and worked well at his gallop but Far West for me all the way!

 

The Cheltenham GOLD Cup​

OD: For me, this year’s race revolves around whether the 2nd season chasers are good enough to beat Long Run, who is by no means a spent force at just 8 years of age. It looks a tight call between Bobs Worth, Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti in the 2nd season bunch; although the latter’s lack of Cheltenham experience puts me off him. I just have a nagging doubt that Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs don’t quite have the form to match Long Run at his best and I think Long Run rates a superb each-way bet at around the 6/1 mark and he may be available at longer odds on the day.
TC: No one ever gets to the bottom of Sir Des Champs and he will only ever do enough. He takes time to hit top stride but when he does he is a serious powerhouse. I know people think he has not looked impressive this year, but small fields against speedsters like Flemenstar were never going to see him in the best of light. But for jumping errors I think he would have won the Lexus, and I think he will be cherry ripe for this. If he jumps well, he can outstay them all, including the fantastic little Bobs Worth.


JL: A great race in prospect this year, after the slight anticlimax of last years renewal. Kauto Star being pulled up, and the sight of Long Run struggling against glorified handicappers took the shine off of last years race for me. Bobs Worth has the form in the book, and his Hennessy win was very impressive, beating First Lieutenant and Tidal Bay. At 3/1 though, he's short enough, and lack of a recent run means I won't be taking him at that price. Sir Des Champs would be the one I'll be most interested in on the day I would imagine, he loves Cheltenham, is a stout stayer, and provided he jumps well enough, will definitely be on the premises at the end. I've backed Silviniaco Conti antepost at 8/1, and would love to see him win. One worry would be if he doesn't take to the track, but he jumps brilliantly, is a strong traveller and has a good turn of foot. My other slight worry would be that he might be susceptible to a hardier stayer over 3m2f. Long Run deserves a mention, but it seems he has not trained on since his brilliant 2011 season, and I would think that he will be playing for a place at best. Gun to my head I would go for Sir Des Champs.

NB: I could see the returning of the crown to Long Run if he is improved by the cheekpieces and jumps a fluid round. I like Sir Des Champs, he is improving with racing, he likes spring ground and I think he will relish the stamina test that is a Gold Cup. He needs to jump well, which hasn't always happened but if he does I think he will be good enough to win. Bob's Worth is an interesting runner but he comes to the race without a preparation run, and for me that is a massive negative.

BoS: A mouth-watering race, possibly the highlight in terms of quality on show. Bob’s Worth is the justifiable favourite and he finally proved last year his jumping is up to standard. Not much against him and pretty remarkable that once he has hit the front in any race he’s never been passed! Slight, slight concern of his absence but he looks bombproof to run an enormous race. Sir de Champs is one I’m pretty sweet on with a similar festival record to Bob’s Worth with two wins though Bob’s Worth’s wins were in better races. You could knock Sir de Champs if you take at face value his win over Flemenstar was against a reported sick horse but I think SDC won with plenty in hand that day. Silviniaco Conti probably has the strongest form and is improving but he was kept away from Cheltenham last year and that’s enough of a doubt in this race to put me off him winning. Long Run has left me underwhelmed since his Gold Cup win and I just suspect he lacks the gears of the front 3 in the market. Captain Chris would be crying out to be backed if they ran the other way round so I can’t have him either. It could be a cracking finish but I take Sir de Champs to peg back Bob’s Worth and give Ireland their first gold cup since 2006.

CP: Sir des Champs - My ideal of the winner - stays very well and seems to come alive at Cheltenham where he is undefeated like Bobsworth. He stayed on strongly in the Lexus and got revenge over Flemenstar and just seems to me like he is coming to the boil nicely. On favoured better ground loads of improvement to come and the likely winner for me.

GGW: I’m inclined to side with Bob’s Worth for this but it’s a tentative gut instinct pick. This looks a fantastic renewal. Long Run won’t win in my opinion, I think he wants 5 miles and the pilot’s relative lack of experience simply can’t help. He couldn’t win the weakest Gold Cup in years when the trainer was in the form of his life. Sir Des Champs is difficult to rate, it seems he’s been trained for this all year and has been crying out for good ground, but not knowing how much he’ll improve makes him difficult to judge. I think the Hennessey was a strong race and Bob’s Worth won cosily. It’s a long break but he goes well fresh. Should be a great race.

SBC: In my opinion Mr Henderson trained runners will fill the places but ever since last season’s Jewson I’ve been convinced that Sir Des Champs would take the 2013 blue riband event. Few horses have impressed me as much as he did that day and his win in the Hennessy at Leopardstown last time confirmed he retained all his ability. I think Sir Des Champs has the ability to draw right away from his field and in doing so see him achieve superstar status.

ROTO: Could go down as a classic and I think the winner will come from the first 3 in the market. I think Bob's Worth has a tremendous chance but I'm definitely put off a little by him not having a run since the Hennessey and that would definitely be a concern if I had backed him. Sir Des Champs should relish every yard of the trip and although he hasn't really shown Gold Cup winning form this year he's been aimed at this race all year and this will be the first time this year that he will be 100% spot on. I do like Silviniaco Conti but you've got to worry all his best form has come at flat tracks and he bypassed Cheltenham last year to go to Aintree. I couldn't have Long Run at any price as he's nowhere near the same horse as he was 2 years ago and I think cheekpieces are a desperate attempt to bring him back to the horse he was. I don't see anything else in the field troubling the judge and the winner should come from the head of the market and I'd probably just side with SDC.

BT: Bobs Worth all day for me. Won the Hennessy with plenty in hand, still seems to be on the upgrade and loves the course. Whats not to like! The time off the track is a worry but he runs well fresh so im not too worried. Sir Des Champs is the obvious danger and im not discounting him lightly, this could be a thrilling battle up the hill but its Bobs Worth all the way for me. Captain Chris could run into a place at a good price. If Long Run wins then I will never place another bet on horse racing ever again. Couldn’t win last year against a bunch of average handicappers and hasn’t been impressive this season either.

WF: Well where do I start? Bobs worth- looked very impressive when winning the Hennessey and definitely deserves his favouritism! Is another Cheltenham specialist and with Barry on board everything seems to be in his favour, he looked impressive on his last gallop and surely has to be there, there abouts- Sir Des Champs- seems to get better with every run, was beaten by Flemenstar 1st time round, then lost to tidal bay but jumped awful but still manage to me make ground between the jumps and ran on well at the end, then finally won and beat Flemenstar lto. His jumping is very iffy and he won’t get away with clanging in to the jumps once again! Silviniaco Conti- has done nothing wrong this season including beating Long Run in the Betfair chase, nicholls imo will have a cracking championship and this may just top it off! Now for my pick Long Run- huge price at 6/1 has never been out of the 1st 3 and will hill doing enhance odds of 10/1 is practically printing money! He jumped ok in the king George but he fought back at the last minute to beat CC when he looked beaten himself! He shall be wearing cheekpieces which should sharpen him up little bit and make him concentrate that little bit more which like SDC his jumping will need to be 100% and if it is he will take all the beating!

 

OTHER FANCIES:

NASS: Others –

Quevega is obvious, with Kentford Grey Lady travelling well before failing to pick up and finish in the places again.
Bostons Angel is on a brilliant mark for the Cross Country and I like the horses chances on better ground.
Then I am interested in Kazlian and Bouggler for two handicap hurdles. I have backed the latter antepost for the Pertemps and I think the former could be an Imperial Cup/Festival plot.

BOSTON BOB: The Champ is on Cantlow. Think he’s a stand out plot. Very confident of a bold show.

GGW: Paul Nicholls is overpriced for leading trainer at 10s. Yard is flying.

The Henderson horse Whisper in the Martin Pipe. I haven’t so much as looked at the race or any of the other handicaps (far too many declared right now) so reserve the right to back something else but this one gives me a feeling when I’ve see him run that he is going to the top. I think he was travelling better than At Fisher’s Cross and The New One on Trials day as they rounded the final bend. Geraghty never once used the whip, it was a Tender ride if ever I saw one. Should get in here off of 132, 16/1.

SIR BARNEY CHUCKLES: The handicaps look ultra-tough but the ones that really stand out for me are Shutthefrontdoor in the Pertemps Final, Frisco Depot in the Kim Muir, The Druids Nephew, for whom there is a huge whisper in the county, in the Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase and perhaps most eyecatchingly of all Court Minstrel if enough come out of the County Hurdle and he gets to run off 131. That is ridiculously low for a horse who this term has been beaten, off levels, 3 lengths by Dodging Bullets who is now perched on 156 and also beaten the 148 rated Duke of Navan half a length when conceding 3 pounds to him!

ROTO: Coral Cup - Son Of Flicka is my biggest ante-post bet at 33/1 after being plotted up to win this race last year and the same has clearly happened again this year. He's only 2lb higher than when winning last year and still 3lb lower then when finding only Sir Des Champs too good in the Martin Pipe back in 2011 and he should definitely run a huge race. I do feel this years renewal looks more competitive then last year and I'll bloody go nuts if McCain sends him to the Pertemps! I still feel Mr Watson is a well handicapped horse and I certainly fear him most

Pertemps - I just don't like Sam Winner for some reason and I don't think he'll be winning. I think Berties Dream 33/1 looks a super little e/w bet returned to the course he loves off a mark of 138. The 2010 Albert Bartlett winner, he ran a blinder in the 2011 World Hurdle despite slipping going around the home turn to be beaten 8L and I think he'll run a blinder at a huge price. In the unlikely event he gets in, I think Paint The Clouds is a fascinating contender off 131 and I'll definitely be backing him if he makes the grade.


JLT Handicap- Cloudy Too 20/1 would have been my NAP of the festival off a mark of 137 but he's come out and won impressively again and he now races off a mark of 146 but I certainly think he'll run a huge race in this. 2-2 in complete handicap chases, I think Sue Smith's 7 year old is hugely progressive and I feel he'll improve no end by the step up to 3m having landed successive 2m4f events. He's up against quite a few horses that look to have gotten favourable handicap marks but I think he has the potential to improve past them all if turning up. He's also got an entry in the Byrne Group Plate but I hope he takes up his engagement here.


WOOLCOMBE FOLLY: WF: Mares Hurdle –Quevega to wipe the floor again!

WF Pertemps Final- Sam Winner looks ahead of the handicapper and if its good enough for Ruby to have him as his nap its good enough for me!
WF: Byrne Group- Hunt Ball to win at Cheltenham again- drop down in class, altho he has not won his last few races he has definitely ran well enough to show he can win at this years festival again! 6/1 is a very good price as he is definitely the class horse in the race and cant see anything really coming close to him
WF- Cross Country chase- will be hard for Uncle Junior to carry the weight and win but my money will be on Balthazar King but it is hard to make a clear case for anyone.


CHAMPION BUMPER

Oddy: I put up Empiracle as my horse to follow this season after his impressive debut victory at Huntingdon and see no reason to desert him now, even though he is shorter in the betting than I would like. The vibes coming from the Jeremy Scott yard about his work at home are very encouraging (apparently Melodic Rendezvous can’t live with him on the gallops) and I just hope he makes it to the race in good order. The other one I like at a nice price is David Pipe’s Vieux Lion Rouge at around the 25/1 mark.

GGW: A few years back I went to a Cheltenham preview and one of the panel said your optimum strategy in this race is to pick one of the Willie Mullins horses (any one you like, regardless of jockey) and back it. I couldn’t believe it as Cousin Vinny duly scooted in with me holding a ticket for 16s. An outsider to watch is Yes Sir Brian who gave Aiden O’Brien’s charge Shield 7lbs and a hands and heels battering on both of their debuts. Shield no doubt improved a great deal when winning his second run but perhaps 40/1 Yes Sir Brian can do the same. Conclusion, watch Willie Mullins win the race.

SBC: I’ve really liked Purple Bay in this for a few weeks now. Word was that his homework was very good and he confirmed this with a nice debut success. Sure to have come on for that valuable experience I think he can go close at a huge price. This does actually though look a very good renewal of the race and the potentially useful trio of Diamond King, Empiracle and Golantilla should be amongst the leaders at the business end of the race.

ROTO: I'm praying Moyle Park turns up as I've backed him at 85s on the exchange and I think he'd have a massive chance but I don't think it looks likely. I've also backed Golantilla at 20/1 although confidence has to be dwindling with him after he was very poor in a gallop at Leopardstown last weekend. Although not a confirmed runner, I think Drumlee has massively slipped under the radar and I think the 25s NRNB looks massive (75s on Betfair). He's the first foal of a dam who is an un-raced half sister to Brave Inca and he was mightily impressive when landing a gamble for Sean McParlan back in November and he went out of my head after that. Seems like he has been picked up by JP McManus and has gone to Charlie Swan - who trained the runner up Tangled Web and who JP owns. I'd say that Swan told JP that they thought Tangled Web was a serious horse and for Drumlee to do that to him then he must be a very, very good horse. Form of that race has been franked strongly as well with Tangled Web winning NTO and the 3rd Our Pollyanna subsequently won very easily by nearly 10L for Prunella Dobbs before being sold to Alan King for £80k in January. That is arguably as strong as any form around and I think he's a very big player if turning up.

 

Couple of things that I found interesting when putting this together:

-Everyone seems keen on First Lieutenant in the Ryanair.

-Sir Barney thinks Sir Des Champs might well beat the two Henderson Gold Cup runners!

-A lot of love for Dodging Bullets in the opener.


-What would our 606 e/w yankee be?

 

I've never been more shocked in my life!

 

well done to everyone,great read,lets hope there are more winners than last years review!im also in the dodging bullets/zarkander camp,nicholls yard in form and should go well.

 

Outstanding work TC, take a bow sir.

Three things of note for me here;

1) The lack of love for MY TENT OR YOURS. Surprised by this. This horse wasnt exactly thrown in when winning a very competitive handicap recently. Less we forget behind him that day was a semi serious Champion Hurdle contender in Cotton Mill. MTOY trounced that field. This could be the first leg of a "monster" meeting for JP McManus!

2) No mention in the bumper for REGAL ENCORE. It will be interesting when the jockeys are announced as if AP elects to ride this fella I think there will be a rush of money for him.

3) Not sure wether to laugh or cry at Nass putting up my boy for the Pertemps. There was a little bit of money for him yesterday. I can report he is in absolutely the finest fettle as you would expect. The yard however is quite obviously under achieving, maybe she has timed them all right instead of peaking too early as in previous years.

Good luck to you all

 

Great stuff toppy you are a real legend will buy u a drink if I see u next week

 

Great job putting that all together for us TopClass, outstanding work! Wouldn't have been an easy job with that amount of material! Great read by all involved as well!

All I can say now is roll on Tuesday