I was overjoyed when we won this weekend and it is a result that i think is going to almost guarantee us survival this year. We probably only need 2 more wins to give us survival and that does not include any draws that we may pick up. It also proves that we CAN play 2 strikers upfront and win. After the villa cup game I honestly thought that it was the last time we would see a 4-4-2. What a feeling Kei Kemara brings to us and what a lift! He is too cool for school! He reminds me of the guys out of Cool Runnings! Awesome result and I think we are pretty much there now. When we are safe we will see our performances improve as the pressure is lifted and the football will be more exciting. Hughton can build his own squad next year, excellent!
Yeah, I genuinely think result sets us up very nicely for survival. We've still got home games against Reading, Villa and Southampton, and just negotiating those games without defeat will have us on the borderline of survival, and we've certainly got plenty of other games where a point is a definite possibility. Unfortunately for Wessi, he's become another problem. In the formation we played yesterday, I don't think we could play him centrally instead of Howson, because we'd have lost a lot of strength in the centre, but out wide he was ineffective, Pilks (assuming he was fully fit) would probably have been a better option to start. But, it'd be so harsh to drop him! I'd like to see this formation become a standard at home, when we're after 3 points, because throughout the game we looked a lot better, and certainly created more chances than the last few games. Away, maybe the 4-2-3-1 with Hoolahan would be a better option.
If you track 18th position all season long it has run 3 or 4 points below the number of games played,If it stays that way then it will finish with the 18th team on 34-5 points.I am sticking by my season long estimate 36 will be safe,possibly on GD.
That's fine if you don't mind flying 'by the absolute seat of your pants'. My ticker would prefer 38/39 points just to have some form of comfort zone - however late in the season it occurs.
We are fine.Seven points from our last six games has left us eight points clear of the drop.That Holt winner has really taken the pressure off,
i think we'll be fine, still some tough games left but we'll pick up a couple of more wins. everton was the highest ranked team we have left to play at home. also there will be some 'freak' results to come for all teams e.g when we beat spurs at WHL last season
i reckon we will be safe on 36 but will get quite a few more than that anyway. probably around 45 is my guess.
Pretty much every team has a lean spell. We had ours at the end of last season. I just hope we can now kick on and finish really strongly. That will translate into next season.
Would be happy with 17th obviously. However if we can hang on to 12th it will mean an additional £4million in prize money. A sizeable chunk of change to have given the end of season payments we will be making to clear our external debts
I'm also sticking with 38 points as the target, though I think City will get considerably more than that and, as Cruyff said, Holt's winner will take a huge amount of pressure off. The addition of Becchio and Kamara also leaves considerable room for optimism for the last 11 matches.
Teams that get relegated tend to get less than a point a game 7 points from 6 is just over a point a game - 1.166667 Over the season we have 32 points in 27 games - 1.1852 Wigan and Villa have 24 points in 27 games - 0.888889 Last season Norwich got 47 points in 38 games - 1.2368 Bolton who were relegated got 36 points in 38 games - 0.94736 This suggests that the number of points needed to stay up will be slightly lower this season. The maths suggests that we will end up on 45 points and Villa and Wigan will end up on 34 points.
No, worked it all out in my head! I think Villa and Wigan will get more than 34 points but it definitely suggests that the 40 point target will be lower this season. Hope we can still get more than 40 points though.
I think I touched on this in another thread.My favoured method of calculation is to follow the 18th placed team comparing games played with points gained.This season that has consistently run 3-4points behind,suggesting 34-5 for 18th place. QPR's plight is increased by the very fact that as bottom club,were they to go on a run,the 18th place points will rise.So in fact for QPR to survive they probably would need 37 or 38.
