On November 18th Punchestown stages the first race of the season where we may get a significant Champion Hurdle pointer. The Morgiana Hurdle, awarded Grade 1 status in 2006, is traditionally the first chance of the season to see Ireland's Champion Hurdle hopefuls running over the 2-mile trip and has been won previously by horses such as Thousand Stars, Solwhit, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca, Harchibald, Limestone Lad, Moscow Flyer and further back Danoli and Destriero. It was a race the great Istabraq never ran in, connections preferring to send him to the Hatton's grace later in November, and Hurricane Fly has only run once previously, finishing 3rd behind Solwhit when the race was called the Dobbins & Madigans. The horses will carry 11-10 with 4YOs receiving a 3lbs weight allowance and mares 7lbs. The entries are as follows: Blackstairmountain Captain Cee Bee Fosters Cross Go Native Hisaabaat (11-7) Hurricane Fly Miley Shah Monksland Rule The World So Young Staying Article Tarla (11-3) Thousand Stars Unaccompanied (11-3) Voler La Vedette (11-3) Zaidpour A high-class field and we have to start with Hurricane Fly. The whole of Ireland and a good portion of England did their nuts on him in the Champion Hurdle in March (me included). After winning the 2011 renewal and following up at Punchestown, he seasonal reappearance was delayed due to Willie Mullins being "unhappy" with him. However, The Fly duly dispatched the field in the Irish Champion Hurdle and headed to Cheltenham a red hot favourite. Whether he was below par that day, or whether the end-to-end gallp blunted his acceleration at the end of the race, the facts are he was 3rd beaten 5 lengths by Rock On Ruby and the fact that Overturn finished 2nd, having previously been well beaten by Mullins star, gives the form a somewhat skewed look. Hurricane Fly then laboured to victory in the Rabobank from 2 inferior stablemates and it remains to be seen whether he can regain the brilliance which saw him laugh at his rivals in the 2011 Rabobank, for me his best ever performance. Questionable whether he will come here or go for the Hattons Grace over 2m4f later in the month - on October 21st Willie Mullins told Racing Post: "I am hoping he can recapture his old form and I am very pleased with him. He worked well on Saturday morning. I expect he will make his return on November 18 in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown." Go Native is a fascinating entry, having been sidelined with injury for so long and with just 2 flat starts this season. Go Native won the 2009 Supreme Novices before being beaten 9L by Hurricane Fly at Punchestown the following month. His first season in open company started with a facile victory in a Grade 2 at Tipperary before he was beaten at Down Royal trying to give Volar La Vedette 9lbs. It was probably as soft as he would want it that day and got squeezed up on the final bend but the winner did it well. Noel Meade then sent his charge on 2 raids to England, taking the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton to line up a shot at the WBX million pound bonus in the Champion Hurdle. In both of those races he left the reigning Champion Hurdler, Binocular, trailing in his wake, and he was sent off the 11/4 fav at Cheltenham. However his race was effectively finished at the 2nd hurdle where he rapped the top bar and sustained the injury which kept him on the sidelines for 31 months. 2 good runs on the flat (3rd on reappearance after just getting tired at the end of the race, then an authoritative victory where he travelled strongly on the bridle and won going away) show that his enthusiasm and talent is still there and it would be tremendous to see Noel Meade's charge get right back to his best over hurdles. The 3 mares entered in the race, Tarla, Unaccompanied and Voler La Vedette, all warrent the utmost respect with the weight allowance. French-bred Tarla has laso had her problem but has already won a Grade 3 with consummate ease this season and really could be anything - although she will need to step up to challenge the principals here. Unaccompanied has already run in so many top races that it is easy to forget she is only 5. This dual-purpose mare has been a wonderful servant for Dermot Weld and took a deserved Grade 1 last christmas when beating Thousand Stars and Oscars Well at Leopardstown. She is probably just short of top class over hurdles but is likely to have been aimed at this and if the ground is good she must rate a major chance. Voler La Vedette has finished 2nd to Big Buck's and Quevega over 3 miles on her last 2 starts and, although clearly a very talented mare, she is likely to find a couple of these too pacy over the minimum trip. The only 4YO in the field, Hisaabaat, had a tremendous novice season, winning 2 Grade 1s and finishing a cracking 2nd to Countrwide Flame in the Triumph. He has had a pipe-opener on the flat and, providing he has developed over the summer, he could be heading for a big season in open company, but he will have to record a career-best performance to take this and probably best watched with the future in mind. Willie Mullins has his usual strong entries - besides Hurricane Fly and Tarle he has Thousand Stars, Zaidpour, So Young and Blackstairmountain but you'd be looking at some of the prinipals dropping out for any of the latter quartet to be considered the winner. Gigginstown Stud have the Mouse Morris trained Rule The World entered and he is impossible to assess. The 5 year old has won a flat race and a maiden by 13 lengths and really could be anything, but it would take a leap of faith to imagine him getting involved here. Noel Meade's Monksland was last seen when finishing 3rd behind Simonsig at the festival and a bold showing here could potentially advertise Simonsig's Champion Hurdle prospects although the 2nd that day, Felix Younger, has not advertised the form. The rest look handicap class and shouldn't trouble the principals. In summary, there are still question marks about which of these will actually turn up but I will be crossing my fingers that Go Native will run and win and finally get his career back on track. If anyone can post the current betting I would appreciate it (no access from work) and, as always, all thought welcomed.
Betfair prices only Hurricane Fly 97/100 Voler La Vedette 57/20 Go Native 19/5 Tarla 67/10 Thousand Stars 17/2 Unaccompanied 17/2 Hisaabaat 19/2 Staying Article 19/2 Captain Cee Bee 21/2 So Young 21/2 Zaidpour 21/2 Monksland 62/5 Miley Shah 143/10 Rule The World 181/10 Blackstairmountain 23 Fosters Cross 23 but as nothing's been matched these probably aren't that reflective of what the prices might be. Probably just how a few nutters have seen it.
At the 5 day declarations stage we have 7 left in: Blackstairmountain Captain Cee Bee Go Native Hurricane Fly Staying Article Unaccompanied (11-3) Zaidpour Still a race to savour, can't wait till Sunday !!
Just put the prices from PadPow for you as well Oddy... Hurricane Fly.................. 4/7 Go Native...................... 10/3 Unaccompanied.............. 6/1 Zaidpour....................... 10/1 Captain Cee Bee............. 14/1 Staying Article............... 25/1 Blackstairmountain.......... 25/1 Each Way Odds » 1/4 Places 1,2
Hurricane Fly may well go in on the bridle here but i'd rather not be with him at that price on his seasonal reappearance. Go Native will run a good race i'm sure but i still want to see him against these classier horses before seeing where i stand on his CH chances. The one i think i'm going to have a bet on though is Captain Cee Bee at 14's each way, he now runs on a mark of 152 and was once a 159 animal and his hurdle form is pretty decent showing 5 wins 2 2nds and 1 3rd from 9 runs and something about his victory LTO impressed me very much against a very useful Rebel Fitz who was rated 160 on his best form. I'm going to assume HF will not produce his best and am still uncertain about Go Native, don't think the others will have much of a say in the business end so i'll take a chance with Captain Cee Bee to pick up the spoils if any of the more fancied ones don't run their race and at 14's, i'd settle on a place.
