The July Cup!

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With regard Star Witness i was not sure of the jockey at Ascot he looked like he was riding work, very stylish work but still work. It may just be a difference in style but i was not sure he was communicating to the horse that there is a difference between the 3 furlong pole and the winning line. He would be great in a hands and heels series race as he was beautifully balance and streamlined, really good to watch, but when its all about the last 50 yards and letting the horse know 'now i want everything' i thought he was found wanting a little. I think the horse definately has the ability though and as many have said if firm is in the going i would not back against him. I would have loved Frankel to run and feel he would have won without too much trouble.
 
I'm not going to pretend to know alot about Australian jockeys, but Steven Arnold was the regular rider for So You Think in Australia, so he is obviously one of the top guys out there. I didn't notice alot wrong with his rides at Ascot personally.

Frankel would have been an interesting runner in this race, I wonder wether any of the sprinters could lay up with him, if he was run flat out like in the Guineas. Judging by his fraction times in the Guineas he just about sustained full speed for 6 furlongs, and it was only in the final 2 he tired. So sprinting could well suit him. I think it's unlikely we will ever see Frankel in a sprint but I would love to see it :biggrin:
 
Bluesky/Sjhergar, it's a funny thing about sprinting- most people think that the 'longer distance horses' couldn't win a top sprint.
Yet, when you think about it, most Derby winners have the class and speed to beat the best as two year olds over 6 furlongs.
So why shouldn't they be able to drop back in distance, as say three or four year olds, and win a top sprint? No reason at all, in my opinion, once they're trained to do so.
A couple of interesting facts from the past...
Paddy Prendergast once said that his champion Oaks winning filly, Noblesse, gave a stone and a ten length beating to his top sprinter in a private 6 furlongs race;
and Sagaro, when he won one of his three Ascot Gold Cups, broke the 6 furlong track record at Ascot for the last 6 furlongs of his race. Despite the fact that wasn't from a standing start, nonetheless you have to say that was an unbelievable achievement!
Going on to Frankel, personally I think he would blow them away!
Looking at this year's race- and carrying on the same theme, you'd have to say that Delegator and Dream Ahead have the class to fight out the finish. Delegator, after all, finished second to Sea The Stars in the 2000 Guineas; and Dream Ahead had top 2 year old form.
 
There was an interesting article in yesterday's 'Independent' re Winker Watson. In summary he's basically returned to the track this season following a couple of years at stud in a bid to boast his racecourse CV and as a result his covering fee. He'll return to the breeding shed at the end of the term. Winker Watson's trainer, old boy Channon, was very complimentary about his new charge and expects him to improve significantly from his first run back in this weekend's 'July Cup'.

Incidentally, someone who has a Winker Watson yearling is that legend of the airwaves 'Big' Alan Brazil.
 
Nah - If it buckets down then Delegator won't be running - think that's a gimme after Ascot!
I expect he will go well but just think he may find one or two too quick?

Star Witness, for me, is the best sprinter in the race and if they get better ground than in the Golden Jubilee then he'll be the one to beat IMO. Bated Breath will run a good one on better ground too.
If it does turn then Monsieur Chevalier would be the one for me!
 
cyclonic111 said:
That's interesting Barney. They must feel that the horse can get the job done. I don't know about the July Cup, but to bring him back and do nothing would be the a disaster. Maybe he is worth a place ticket.
Click to expand...

Don't forget you heard it here first (at 66/1) <laugh>.. That in itself probably means it has no chance.
 
On his two-year-old form, Winker Watson should have hosed up at Newcastle, so clearly he is not the same horse after his problems. I cannot recall an instance of a horse being packed off to stud then coming back to the racecourse and being as good as before. Look at Kingsgate Native.

You may recall the &#8220;greatest horse that anybody has ever owned&#8221; Arazi had a troubled winter at the vets before his three-year-old campaign and never ran within a stone of his spectacular display in the Breeders&#8217; Cup Juvenile.

Allen Paulson thought that he was so brilliant that he had sold Sheikh Mohammed a half share for ridiculous money before his Churchill Downs performance rather than hang on and see how much more he would be worth afterwards. The best Arazi managed as a three-year-old was a Group 2 win in France after flopping as favourite in the Run For The Roses and his swansong was trailing home in the Breeders&#8217; Cup Mile.

At 66/1, Winker Watson is 6/1 for a place. That bet has two chances whereas most of the principals are better odds for one chance to win.
 
Kingsgate Native? Who came back to win two Group races posting as good time figures as he did before his time at stud?

Kingsgate Native returned with a poor effort (second last in a Group 1 if I recall) and then won a Group race on his second race back, winning at Goodwood in what was for me he greatest performance. I wonder if lightning can strike again with Winker Watson.
 
I just need to summarise what I have said in other posts:
(a) I agree he shouldn't be good enough for this race
(b) I thought he was overpriced at 66/1 and could therefore be a bet to lay.

So I'm only suggesting a free bet may be possible.
 
Nass, here is a quick summary of Kingsgate Native&#8217;s race career to date:

For John Best (2007-2008) Career wins/runs &#8211; 2/7 (seconds &#8211; 2, thirds &#8211; 1)
Nunthorpe Stakes &#8211; Group 1 &#8211; York, August 2007
Golden Jubilee Stakes &#8211; Group 1 &#8211; Ascot, June 2008

For Sir Michael Stoute (2009-) Career wins/runs &#8211; 2/13 (seconds &#8211; 1, thirds &#8211; 1)
Audi Stakes &#8211; Group 3 &#8211; Goodwood, July 2009
Temple Stakes &#8211; Group 2 &#8211; Haydock, May 2010
 
And here is it with the official handicapper -

Pre stud - 120
Post stud (and after races) - 119

Timespeed
Pre - 123
Post - 122

RPR
Pre - 123
Post - 123

Perhaps he was running against weaker fields pre-stud duties and now is regressing at the age of 6 (even though his return this year was rated highly by RPR and Timespeed) as many horses do.

I think the horse kept the same ability post lay off that it had pre stud duties and I think a strong argument can be made to suggest as much.
 
Yep, tried but failed at stud. They tried to cover four mares in the Southern Hemisphere with him before they gave him the nastiest cut of them all.
 
Kingsgate Native&#8217;s career form figures read: 221/0153/016/164943/2606. As a punter his last nine runs would have left you empty pocketed.

I am not sure where you got the &#8216;Post stud&#8217; rating from as his current Official Rating is 113. He and Winker Watson are both six-year-olds but they did not meet in 2007.
 
Arazi was easily the best 2yo I've ever seen, I'd say he was the 2nd best horse I have ever seen, just behind Shergar. If only he didn't have the injury at the end of his 2yo career, if only :biggrin:
 
Not particularly relevant, but I must add that I too, always ran faster after a leg-over.

Especially when it was with the butchers wife :D
 
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