I thought it worth starting a thread for horses that we think could have an almighty chance st the festival, but haven't got a clue which race the horse might run in. I don't particularly mean the novices, but handicappers that we think connections are readying for a tilt at one of the big festival prizes. I realise there are dozens of horses that fit into this category, but I am looking for ones which have been especially impressive in winning, or look to have been running to get a handicap mark for Cheltenham. The first one I will nominate is actually the horse which gave me the idea for the thread - Paul Nicholls' Irish Saint. A leading juvenile last year, Irish Saint's seasonal debut ended with a fall when looking held and his run in the Ladbroke last time was too bad to be true (probably because he was carrying my money) and he was never involved in the race. But yesterday at Ascot he absolutely sluiced up in a Grade 2 limited handicap hurdle over an extended 2m3f and I don't think it was just the ground which exaggerated his superiority, as he took the Adonis last year on good. He won off 140 yesterday so will be raised to sonewhere between 146 - 150 and could be a possible runner in either the Coral Cup, County Hurdle or the Martin Pipe Conditionals hurdle with Harry Derham on board?
Irish Saint surely has to run in the Betfair if he comes out of yesterday fit and well. He will surely get slaughtered by the handicapper for yesterday, given how easily he went clear, and I would expect him to be rated over 150 after that race. That would put him as top weight in something like the Coral Cup and as such I think he will struggle at the festival. He is clearly really nice horse who they think will be better on spring ground, but can he win a handicap off top weight at the festival? The one I am interested in is - Alaivan who I think is really becoming an interestingly handicapped horse. Ran well in the week off 130 and I wouldn't be shocked to see him go Imperial Cup/Cheltenham if he is fit and well. Might sneak into the bottom of the County off his mark, but even more likely under a penalty.
Just read they are looking at the Betfair Hurdle for Irish Saint Nass, I agree that if he wins that you can forget the festival handicaps. I tipped up Alaivan e/w in that midweek race but I think he needs plenty of juice to show his very best?
I think he would be fine on anything softer than Gd-sft. He should get that at the festival, we all know they like to keep it on the softer side of good.
Willie Mullins novice hurdlers wherever they turn up especially Faugheen and Briar Hill. Neptune and Albert Bartlett seemingly their respective destinations at the minute.
Annie Power And because I once thought this fellow could be decent, with a name perfectly suited to the festival ..... Cheltenian. Entered - with about 100 others - for the Betfair.
Where you reckon she goes Reebs? I was 99.9% sure was World Hurdle bound but more I hear about her pedigree and even studying her form I'm starting to think the Champion may suit her best? I thought she'd raced further than 2and a half miles last year but she didn't. Starting to worry I'm on the wrong Mullins horse in it
I think she has the pace to run really well in a Champion- she just looks a proper class act. Obviously the issue we have is that she is doing all of this in soft ground and at the intermediate trip of 2 and a half miles. I know full well she will stay 3, but she has so much pace that surely her stamina will play a part at the end of a Champion Hurdle. Perhaps much depends on the weather? Hurricane is obviously 1st choice Mullins and I would have thought that Un De Sceaux might be the other to run in the Champion because he adds a tactical edge to Hurricane Flys bow (being a frontrunner). However, Ruby Walsh has added to the usual Mullins antepost pandemonium by saying "I am of the opinion that Un De Sceaux will stay any trip". Logic suggests that having run twice over 2m, UDS goes to the Champion & Annie Power- having won easily over 2 and a half mile in soft ground- goes for the 3m World Hurdle on (likely) better spring ground, especially as Ruby Walsh is not sat on Big Bucks, perhaps the biggest hint of all.
Montbazon – off since the Festival of ’12 but now back in full work and a return to the track is imminent. Where Montbazon goes though at the meeting is anyone’s guess. Could be the Champion Hurdle, the County Hurdle, the Coral Cup or even, perhaps, the Boat Race?!? The ‘hope of the county’ incidentally is another that is in Newbury’s ‘Betfair Hurdle’ next month and off 140 if in anywhere near the sort of form he was in during campaign 2011/12 must be one to seriously consider.
Lovely horse but he was hardly setting the world alight in a shocking Supreme Novice so he requires improvement. To be fair, physically he looked to have scope to do that. One horse who impressed me from the UK this year is VALDEZ- a 2m novice chaser with Alan King.
I am sometimes wary of stating I'll back a certain horse whichever race they run in, because sometimes trainers can take the wrong option, and run horses over a trip that isn't suited to the horse but looks an easier race. I fell into this trap last year with Dynaste when he was beaten by Benefficient who clearly suited the Jewson race better than him. If they had have gone for the 3m race they'd have had a massive shout IMO given the formlines that have come out of the respective races since then. Regardless I'll second whoever gave a shout to Faugheen, and back him wherever he goes!
Lay of the festival- Grandouet- dont normally lay but any race he turns up, at the festival will be a lay!
