The going is currently good, good to soft in places. The forecast for the week is dry with the chance of a light shower on Tuesday. The Field: Neptune Collonges (33/1) - My fancy last year but was brought down early on. He heads the weights, and is likely to remain in the field, with young Harry Derham set to take the mount. He is now 10 and this looks a stiff ask off a mark of 168. Could run a decent race because he will jump and stay. Will handle good but would prefer softer. Diamond Harry (20/1) - Will almost certainly miss the race after running in the Betfair Chase. Weird Al (16/1) - Will almost certainly miss the race after running in the Betfair Chase. Wishfull Thinking (28/1) - Must be a doubtful runner with a drop back to 2m, rather than a step up to 3m2f, on the cards. Joncol (14/1) - Considered a proper mud lark and has yet to encounter anything better than soft in 12 starts and 2 Points. His participation might well be in doubt with the current forecast. A decent animal in Ireland but has yet to race over here. He has a big task on his hands off of 161 and there must be a few better handicapped down the bottom. Ground is a major concern. Time For Rupert (20/1) - Will almost certainly miss the race after running in the Betfair Chase. Planet Of Sound (20/1) - Winner of a (weak) Grade 1 at Punchestown in 2010 and thought of as a potential Gold Cup horse. Only ran twice last season when well beaten in both the Betfair Chase and King George. Runs here of 158 and won the Haldon Gold Cup off of 152 in 2009. This is a different kettle of fish but he will like the ground and if he retains his ability then he has a chance. Hobbs will need to have him cherry ripe on his first run since January. Quinz (33/1) - Progressive last year and took the Racing Post Chase in good style. Connections then tried him in the National to take advantage of a favourable handicap mark but he broke a blood vessel and was pulled up. Ran poorly on his reappearance when never getting going at all and was pulled up again. Still on a mark of 153 and he might find it tough unless he can find his best form, and probably improve again. Sarando (16/1) - Went down by a 1/4 length at Aintree to Quito De la Roque. That rival has since done the form no harm winning Grade 1s at Punchestown and Down Royal. He is now rated 169. Sarando runs here off of 153 (149 plus a 4lb penalty) and on the bare form he would have a decent chance. Furthermore, his reappearance at Carlisle was impressive as he put a couple of decent sorts to the sword and won as he liked. Clearly handles decent ground and is an improving sort. Aiteen Thirtythree (8/1) - The big talking horse in the race with Nicholls putting this forward as a target virtually before he had jumped a fence. His trainer has already backed him for the race at 33/1 last year and confidence still appears to be strong. Wide margin winner of two novice events at the course before disappointing in the RSA when reportedly unsuited by the undulating track. His reappearance behind Somersby was pleasing enough over an inadequate trip and he is sure to improve for that. Has run well on good but just get the feeling he would prefer a bit of cut. Has performed best when allowed to dominate from the front and I just wonder whether he will be able to do that here. The services of Ruby Walsh will be a big help to his chances. Blazing Bailey (50/1) - A former high class hurdler who finally made his mark over fences last season with wins at Cheltenham and Ffos Las. Since then his form has tailed off a little when well beaten at the Festival and pulled up in the Scottish National. Possibly has enough on his plate running of 151. Great Endeavour (8/1) - Impressive winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and is officially 6lbs well in here. Connections have expressed concern over his ability to stay the trip and he has yet to win over 3m. He has shown his best form at Cheltenham but does enjoy good ground. Hey Big Spender (40/1) - Slowly coming back down the weights and won off this mark at Wetherby in February. That was far less competitive than this and others are preferred. Fell in the race last year when well beaten. Beshabar (14/1) - A dour stayer who finished 2nd in the National Hunt Chase and then won the Scottish Grand National, both over 4m. He has stamina in abundance and likes good ground. Up 4lbs in the weights since his win at Ayr which doesn't look insurmountable. This has been his target for a while and he will certainly be galloping at the death. Might just require a more extreme test than this. Wayward Prince (12/1) - Stayed on powerfully up the Cheltenham hill to go down by just a length in the RSA. Then ran poorly when over the top at Aintree behind Quito De La Roque and Sarando. Runs well on good ground and has stamina in abundance. A smart horse for whom a mark of 150 does not look insurmountable. Carruthers (25/1) - A game front runner who appreciates cut. Unlikely he will be able to dominate in this race and the ground is unlikely to be in his favour either. Jumps and stays well but others might just have more pace. Is falling down the handicap and is 10lbs lower than when a 20 length 6th last year. Michel Le Bon (10/1) - One of the most interesting runners in the race and the subject of strong antepost support. Rated 140 over hurdles and has just one chase start to his name back in 2009, when running away with the Grade 2 3m Novice Chase at this meeting to win by 60 lengths. Immediately rated 146 and he runs off that here. He has clearly had his problems and his fitness must be taken on trust but if anybody can get him right for the day then Nicholls is the man. Reportedly was slow to learn when first introduced to fences and his lack of experience in such a competitive race is a concern. Could be smart though. Muirhead (40/1) - Easily won the Munster National back in October off 132 but raised to 146 here. He was a smart hurdler (rated 158 at his peak) so that hefty rise might be within his reach. Disappointed at Ascot last time but never really got involved and others might just have his measure. The Giant Bolster (20/1) - Well fancied and tipped by Pricewise for the Paddy Power Gold Cup but got no further than the 1st fence. Has now failed to complete in 4 of his 6 chase starts, but has won on both other occasions. Will be race fit after a hurdles spin before Cheltenham and if his jumping holds he definitely has a chance. The slower pace might help in that regard and he didn't appear short on stamina when staying on best over 2m5f at Cheltenham last January. Wymott (8/1) - Won his first three chase starts well enough without ever setting the world alight but was pulled up in the RSA last time. He was found to have a small fracture and that run should be ignored. Handily weighted here off of 144 and it would be disappointing if he were not able to better that in time. This has been his target and he must be respected. Fair Along (50/1) - A game little horse who finished 2nd when attempting a hatrick of West Yorkshire Hurdles at Wetherby last month. Since well beaten in a handicap chase at Cheltenham and the hurly burly of this race might be too much for him. Balthazar King (40/1) - Progressive last year but pulled up in the Bet365 Gold Cup. Returned with a win at Cheltenham but well beaten the last twice. Will need to improve to figure here. His best form has come in small fields when he has been allowed to dominate from the front. Unlikely to enjoy that luxury in this. Tullamore Dew (50/1) - 3rd behind Divers and Quantitativeeasing in the Centenary Novices Handicap Chase at the Festival over 2m5f. Decent return over hurdles but fell in the Paddy Power when in rear. Yet to prove his stamina for this trip. Billie Magern (33/1) - A few pounds wrong at the weights as things stand but ran 5th in the Paddy Power, shaping as if a return to 3m would be in his favour. Will need a career best but not beyond the realms of possibility. Handles quick ground well. Qhilimar (40/1) - A winner at Newton Abbot and 2nd at Carlisle already this season but this is much tougher. Up to a career high mark of 137 and 5lbs wrong at the weights makes this a big ask. Vino Griego (66/1) - A 2nd season Novice who was 55 lengths behind Grand Crus at Cheltenham earlier in the month. Yet to try anything further than 2m5f but to will need to bring about significant improvement for him to figure here from 9lbs out of the handicap. Neptune Equester (66/1) - A thorough stayer who has been on the go all summer. Trip and ground will not be a problem, but the big question is whether he is good enough. Nearly a stone out of the handicap and will have to improve out of all recognition to figure. Shortlist: Whilst it may not be original I think it is worryingly easy to cross out quite a few in the field. The horses that I am left with are generally those nearer the head of the market. The one of the market leaders I would be keen to oppose is Great Endeavour. This was clearly not the plan for him and the trip must be a major concern. So off the 46 currently engaged my 8 for the shortlist are as follows: Planet Of Sound Sarando Aiteen Thirtythree Beshabar Wayward Prince Michel Le Bon The Giant Bolster Wymott They are all no bigger than 20/1 so hardly any shocks predicted. I would be surprised if anything from lower down the market could challenge. My major concern is that it all seems far to obvious. There are bigger priced horses who might run into a place but nothing that looks like it might be able to win to me. If anybody thinks differently I'd be delighted to hear! Your thoughts good people of Not606.
Very nice write-up Zen Had my first real look at the field today and I rather feel this could be a disappointing renewal with many defections expected as you state above. There doesn't seem to be a really good 2nd season chaser in the field with Wymott, Wayward Prince and 1833 the possible exceptions although all 3 have questions to answer. I think those are the 3 I would have on the short list with maybe an e/w dabble at a monster price on Blazing Bailey. A sound jumper who achieved 163 over hurdles and showed a couple of times last season that, if he really puts it all together, he is a force to be reckoned with. Trip will be right up his street and ground likely to be fine for him too, and the stable seems to be in good nick at the moment. If Neptune Collonges stays in Blazing Bailey will have 10-8 which looks a nice racing weight. I think it's interesting that Alan King only has this one left in as I thought he may have entered Bensalem up this time around.
Wonderful stuff Zen. A write up like yours goes a long way toward helping the novice like me. I'll most certainly going over the article as the race approaches. It's great that the going will be relatively ok, but from a personal point of view, I'd have preferred a bog. Take 5 mate.
A nice write up. Massive doubts about the trip for Great Endeavour but the Pipe stable are flying so he must be respected. I backed Wymott last week and I like his chances, I think there's a lot more to come from his current mark. I think 1833 will go well but I think he'd like rain and I agree with Odddog regards Blazing Bailey.
I was told some time ago that 1833 was expected to win the race so confident are the stable, but there is quality in the race and if fit and tuned up I'd also be having a saver on Wayward Prince. The Giant Bolster is a horse that will destroy people - an abundanceof talent but as Zen has said, failure to complete in 4of his last 6 tells you everything you need to know, 20/1 to win the race is fair but you should also be able to find 12/1 he completes the course. Sarando to run a big race as well
19 left in at the 5 day declaration stage: Neptune Collonges (33/1) Joncol (14/1) Planet Of Sound (14/1) Sarando (14/1) Aiteen Thirtythree (13/2) Blazing Bailey (40/1) Great Endeavour (8/1) Beshabar (14/1) Wayward Prince (10/1) Carruthers (25/1) Muirhead (40/1) Michel Le Bon (8/1) The Giant Bolster (20/1) Wymott (8/1) Fair Along (40/1) Balthazar King (40/1) Tullamore Dew (40/1) Billie Magern (33/1) Qhilimar (40/1) All 8 on my shortlist remain in the race, so that has hardly helped narrow it down at all!!! The big news is that Ruby Walsh, probably as expected is confirmed for Aiteen Thirtythree.
All 8 horse that made it onto my shortlist have been left in the field, so some more aggressive culling is now required to narrow it down further. Planet Of Sound - If Phillip Hobbs has got him spot on for his reappearance then I can certainly see him going close. This has been his target for a while and he has had a breathing operation since choking in the King George. I think he could run a nice race but I'm not convinced he's good enough to win this off a mark of 158. Sarando - Was something of a surprise package at Aintree but I was impressed with his return. He seems to be improving nicely but he finds himself 4th in the weights. You have to ask yourself whether he is up to that sort of level. Aiteen Thirtythree - The big news is that Ruby Walsh is declared to ride. He has shortened up considerably as a result from a general 8/1 yesterday into around a 5/1 shot, and clear favourite. Coral are still going 13/2 and I think that is a fair price because I think Ruby riding is a massive boost for his chances. I still doubt whether he can dominate the race, and how he will fare if he isn't able to, but I was impressed with his reappearance and has been laid out for the race. Stable confidence is sky high and he must be one for the reduced list. Beshabar - This has been his target for some time but he is being prepared for the Grand national in April. He looks a proper stayer and I think a few might be too quick for him in this. He also improves for racing and I suspect he might be a little rusty first time up. Wayward Prince - Another dour stayer but with a little more class. He will appreciate the trip and the ground and I can see him running a big race. My concern is that he might get outpaced when the pace quickens. He was struggling from a fair way out in the RSA but just stayed on best of all. I also doubt whether he is 6lbs superior to Wymott, who beat him when they met over hurdles. Michel Le Bon - The second Nicholls runner who will presumably have the assistance of Daryl Jacob. It seems clear that Aiteen Thirtythree is their primary hope and Ruby rarely chooses the wrong one, assuming that he had the choice in the first place. For that reason he is left out. The Giant Bolster - Clearly has jumping frailties but I think he could run a huge race with a clear round. Has good form over shorter but has always shaped like the step up to 3m will suit. If he completes then I think he could be right in the mix. However, his jumping will be put under pressure in this and I just wonder whether it will stand up to the test. Wymott - Similar in profile to Wayward Prince, except for disappointing in the RSA. He was struggling right from the off so I feel confident that the run can be ignored. The one concern is who will ride. Jason Maguire has ridden him in all 11 starts, but his lowest riding weight in the last 12 months is 10-5 and he will need to do 10-2 here. That aside I think he has an excellent chance. The three for me at this stage are Aiteen Thirtythree, The Giant Bolster and Wymott, with an honourable mention to Wayward Prince. Both Aiteen Thirtythree and Wymott are best priced with Coral at 13/2 and 8/1 respectively. I would not expect those prices to last too long so it might be best to take them while they are around. The Giant Bolster is a general 20/1 shot.
Another good write up- Obviously ainteenthirtythree I can see why he is favourite with ruby on board, he has been aimed at this race, and if he is to have any sucess at the festival he should be winning this race. I think Giant Bolster if he can stand up to the test is real e/w value @ 20/1, the same with Neptune Collonges but I feel he may be carrying a little to much weight!
Interesting that Corals rate Great Endeavour 6/1 with 1833 a 13/2 shot. I'm not sure the Nicholls yard have ever been so bullish about one of theirs, what do Corasl know that we don't ?
The Nicholls camp appear to think that defeat is out of the question. I think the 13/2 is worth taking because I'd be fairly sure that he will start shorter than that on the day. Phil Smith said that he thinks 1833 has got in lightly at the Hennessy Launch this evening. Nicholls obviously agrees.
I doubled Great Endeavour up for the PP and the Hennessy so my allegiance in the race is already predetermined. I don't have any issues with him staying the trip as he finished 1L 3rd over 3m 2f in a Listed race so I think that proves his capability of staying the 3m trip in my view. I wouldn't personally touch him at his current price as its pretty skinny but I'm happy with the bet I've got on so I'll be hoping he lands this as a bonus but I was certainly more confident about him in the PP than I was in this, but I still think he definitely has a good chance of going close in this.
I'll be paying Corals a visit at lunchtime and hoping the 13/2 is still available. Roto - I guess you have some pick up for that bet, if I see Ruby on the deck or pulling up a fence behind I'll give GE a shout....
Denman. What A Friend. Niche Market. Barbers Shop. Gone To Lunch. Kornati Kid. My Will. Snowy Morning. Nenuphar Collonges. Lively Joe. War Of Attrition. Chelsea Harbour. Mon Mome. Killyglen. An Accordion. Cappa Bleu. Ballyfitz. State Of Play. Offshore Account. Is 2011 as deep?
I think this year's Hennessy is not as good as recent years but the only reason for that is because Denman isn't running. If you take Denman out of the field above then it is pretty comparable. I agree that it is not a vintage renewal though.
Weights are already out Cyc. 1 B0186- Neptune Collonges224 10 11-12 Paul Nicholls62 Harry Derham7 168 140 171 2 433-1 Joncol23 8 11-6 Paul Nolan50 Barry Geraghty 162 150 170 3 01/35- Planet Of Sound315 9 11-2 Philip Hobbs45 158 121 135 4 12F2-1 Sarando19 4x 6 10-11 Paul Webber50 Will Kennedy 153 137 162 5 111P-2 Aiteen Thirtythree26 7 10-10 Paul Nicholls62 R Walsh 152 152 176 6 6119P- Blazing Bailey224 9 10-9 Alan King38 151 161 175 7 62F6-1 Great Endeavour14 4x 7 10-9 David Pipe50 Timmy Murphy 151 159 183 8 B121- Beshabar224 9 10-8 Tim Vaughan40 150 163 175 9 11134- Wayward Prince232 7 10-8 Ian Williams40 Dougie Costello 150 140 175 10 6649-3 Carruthers14 8 10-4 Mark Bradstock 146 175 177 11 631418 Muirhead28 8 10-4 Noel Meade50 146 155 181 12 31311/ Michel Le Bon730 8 10-4 Paul Nicholls62 Noel Fehily 146 — — 13 1UF-4U The Giant Bolster14 6 10-4 David Bridgwater Tom Scudamore 146 130 172 14 111P- Wymott255 7 10-2 Donald McCain67 144 80 181 15 34-U26 Fair Along14 9 10-0 Philip Hobbs45 142 148 179 16 1P-15P Balthazar King14 7 9-13 Philip Hobbs45 141 142 173 17 123-5F Tullamore Dew14 9 9-12 Nick Gifford40 140 155 176 18 028-15 Billie Magern14 7 9-11 Nigel Twiston-Davies50 Sam Twiston-Davies 139 139 171 19 P1R-12 Qhilimar27 7 9-9 Charlie Longsdon42 137 156 169 Formatting all goes up the creek when I post. Full Racing Post Racecard here.
Well done Zen on a good write up. The race will always be weaker, without a horse of Denmans quality, and it's not just because of Denman's absence alone, it's because when you have a horse rated as high as Denman, it attracts other good horse's as they know they won't have to carry a high weight. IMO the likes of Diamond Harry, Burton Port and Weird Al may not have even ran in last years Hennessy, without Denman. Denman last year was racing off 182, so it meant anything rated lower than 158, was running from out of the handicap, which ment most of them don't bother running, so you only get highly rated horse's running
I think the bookies have it about right. I think the one to beat is Aiteen Thirtythree with Wymott the danger, both 2nd season chasers with much more to come and nicely weighted. Wayward Prince has a chance as he'll certainly stay, not so keen on Great Endeavour who I don't think will, difficult to oppose the Pipe yard at the moment mind you but I just don't think he'll last the trip.
