The Great Grand Crus Debate

To keep this away from Daily threads and others I wanted to know what peoples views were on this ones participation in the Gold Cup.

The race is starting to look weak for me, Long Run may have regressed and just about every credible alternative with the exception of Kauto has question marks.

I am not one for risking a novice in a race like the Gold Cup but that's just me, what does the forum think ?
If he was your horse what would you do ?

 

At the minute you'd probably think why not? Aside from LR and KS (both of which have they're own questions attached), what else is they're? Based on this afternoons events we don't have an Irish challenger again. You'd have to say he's a worthy third favourite at the minute. I suppose his lack of chasing experience is a worry but he looks a class act. The RSA looks a penalty kick though.

 

I'd be staggered if he ran. But with a NRNB, at 8-1 or so, it looks a good value EW punt.

Can't have him winning it, even if he did run, which I wouldn't expect, but could sneak a place.

 

I'll play devils advocate, many people believe the RSA is the most gruelling race any horse can be entered for, novices in a stamina sapping dogfight, the seasoned chasers in the Gold Cup will invariably not make as many mistakes and generally settle better so fewer distractions for an inexperienced type, sp do people believe the Gold Cup will be a tougher race than the RSA this season ?

 

Interesting point Grizzly, but I think the RSA would be a much easier race based purely in the quality of opposition. Its difficult to see any of the other novices being in the same parish as Grand Crus. Where as in the GC you have horses fancied to beat him, I doubt any of the other novices can really put it up to him and force him to make mistakes. His jumping would really be put to the test if say KS adopts the positive tactics again.

 

I think they will go for that race that Time For Rupert was going for pre Cheltenham last season. If he was to beat older horses in that then I think they would have to go to the Gold Cup. Personally I would perhaps go for the Ryanair, against experienced horses but an invariably weaker race than the Gold Cup. I think the RSA is a big test on a young horse and could bottom another potentially top draw staying chaser.

 

I was a huge fan of Gloria Victis, I remember seeing his Feltham win and it was one of them wow moments. Its ironic that the horse in question now is from the same camp. Im currently reading AP's autobiography (A christmas gift) and I immediately wanted to see his thoughts on Gloria Victis/Valiramix/Witchita Lineman etc and he thinks that even had Gloria Victis not raced in the Gold Cup he would have maybe suffered the same fate. Gloria Victis had a tendancy to jump to the right hence the reason he was so well suited at Kempton, Usually when a horse is jumping either left or right they are doing so for a reason weather something was niggling them or weather they are trying to protect them self in some way. McCoy is adamant that Gloria Victis had a weakness in one of his legs and weather it was the Gold Cup or RSA he would have probably suffered the same fate down the line, He also believes Gloria Victis was good enough to win the Gold Cup even if he didn't have the expierience of some of his rivals. Its a double edge sword, And it still bugs Me to this day that a horse like Gloria Victis lost his life in the best steeplechase race in the world, But maybe McCoy is right and Gloria Victis was destined to have a short career...

Should they run Grands Crus? Im still undecided, Hes a novice chaser but hes not really a novice animal. Hes ran in a championship race at Cheltenham before so he will be used to the hustle and bustle and he obviously enjoyed the Hill as he wasn't disgraced in finishing second in the world hurdle behind Big Bucks. He's looked really professional over his fences to date and hes won going both left handed and right handed aswell as tasting the Cheltenham fences. Hes a tough one, Wait a year and strike for gold or go a year early? I wonder if David Pipe will have a think back to the ultra talented Gloria Victis before thinking of the Gold Cup punt...

 

I think ultimately they'll go RSA as i can see a lot of potential RSA horses going the Jewson route to avoid him. I can see a small field RSA appealing more at this stage. On a slight aside I can see SS having a similar effect on the Arkle. As a result the Jewson might end up a mine field.

 

I hadn't heard that before but that might well be why they ran him in the GC. They knew he was very good indeed but that he was fragile as well and therefore this might be his only chance at the big one.

 

''Hes a novice chaser but hes not really a novice animal. Hes ran in a championship race at Cheltenham before so he will be used to the hustle and bustle and he obviously enjoyed the Hill''

Excellent point

 

Its been a good read upto now Zen, He describes Gloria Victis as the best novice chaser he ever sat on and thats an high accolade from the Champ. I think they genuinely ran Gloria Victis in the Gold Cup because they believed he could win it and so did AP he won the Feltham in a quicker time than See More Business won the King George, He won the Racing Post Chase of 11st 10 so he was obviously shaping as a Gold Cup Horse. AP thought he could win either the RSA or Gold Cup but the decision layed with Martin Pipe and the owner, AP had the chance to ride Looks Like Trouble but he was never going to miss the ride on Gloria Victis and the rest is history, He seems certain in his mind that Gloria Victis possessed a weakness and that fall found it out. Hes certain it would have come to light weather it had been on the gallops, RSA, Gold Cup. Just part and parcel of horse-racing I guess, When there that good with such promise I guess its harder to take...

 

If Grand Crus was to go to the Gold Cup, then I only see Long Run as a worthy challenger. Kauto Star is 12, so is way to old, the likes of Synchronised, Weird Al, Time For Rupert etc just aren't classy enough. So why not have a crack at the Gold Cup, it's hardly like Long Run is unbeatable.

I can't agree that Long Run has regressed, the ability is still there, he's just not jumping well enough. Even if Long Run is on his game, I wouldn't discount Grands Crus, Grands Crus has a massive engine, and is certainly one of the most talented horse's in training.

It's down to connections realy, do they want a penalty kick at the RSA, or a 2nd favourites chance at the Gold Cup? I personally would be inclined to go for the Gold Cup

 

The fact that Long Run has suffered defeat twice to an ageing horse in Kauto Star, the same horse he slammed twice a year ago, suggests he may have regressed, I agree it's his jumping that has cost him but in NH racing that's a fundemental part of the game and if his jumping has got worse then his overal game has regressed.
Of course he may prove me completely wrong come March....

 

If Big Bucks had taken to chasing the same way Grand Crus has I suspect every one here would be on the beast for the Gold Cup. So the way I see it is how good a reserve is Grand Crus given Big Bucks is staying hurdling. Probably good enough for a place at least.

 

Or Kauto Star was under par last year and has returned to a better level. Opinions.

 

I detailed my thoughts on this question in the King George thread. If I remember correctly Gloria Victis had only run ten times with the Gold Cup being only his third attempt at three miles or more. His participation in the GC was decided by his run in the Racing Post Chase so the previous runs at three miles were both at Kempton. The opposition in the 1994 Gold Cup included:

Florida Pearl - multiple Grade 1 chase winner.
Looks Like Trouble - Gold Cup winner.
See More Business - Gold Cup winner.
Dorans Pride - Stayers Hurdle winner.

I would judge that Grands Crus experience in the 2011 World Hurdle where he gave the exceptional Big Bucks a race and his clear adaption to chasing should allow him to aquit himself in the Gold Cup; should the owners and Mr Pipe decide to go down this route. There may well be a small field which would suit a novice plus it looks like the only credible opposition may be Long Run and Kauto Star.

To sum up; do you wait for 2013 and hope the horse remains well for fifteen months or do you take a chance in a field of, say, ten with only two real dangers?

The only clever thing to do is to steam into Ladbrokes 8/1 with NRNB!!!

 

Nass.....I feel the ground in last seasons KG suited Long Run more, he doesn't have slot of pace, but he stays all day, so 3 miles on soft ground isn't a problem. This year we've had a very warm winter, and the ground was alot quicker than last year, which made the contest more about speed than stamina.

I know when he won the Gold Cup, the ground was good, but 3m2 at Cheltenham is very testing regardless of ground, and if you remember he did get outpaced, but then stayed on past KS and Denman.

As far as KSs performances last year, I'd say he wasnt at his best in the KG, but I do believe he was at his best in the Gold Cup, he just didn't quite stay aswell as Denman or Long Run. I can see the Gold Cup panning out similarly this year, the only advantage KS might have in the race, is that there will be no Denman serving it up to him at the top of the hill, so Ruby may be able to hold onto him for longer