The Future is Golden

Well yesterday was a day that seemed to get many Watford fans pretty depressed and it set me to thinking about where our future lies.

We had a problem because our last foray into the Premiership was badly managed and then on return to the Championship we took an ill advised gamble to get straight back up – which was not so far from being achieved.

However the legacy of that was that we were messed up well and truly in financial terms. We had players on large salaries that we could not afford and the running costs of the club had grown ridiculously in the “good” years – we had a marketing department of more than 50 people at one time I seem to remember. Knowing that the parachute money would run out in a year or two we embarked on a course of frugality to try to bring our cost base back to around the same level as our reduced income.

If we had been able to attract new owners with sufficient funds to see us through to the “break-even” period with sufficient business acumen to buy and sell well we might have stabilised a little earlier but in my view – given some of the connexions within our club we do not seem to have been able to attract the right sort of owner. Time will tell how good or bad Bassini proves to be but his track record is not inspiring and he certainly does not possess the sort of money to bankroll us through the next few years to enable us to have a more measured strategy of sales and acquisitions.

The last few days have proved this. We have now sold Graham and Buckley for a combined £4.5m – this on hindsight may not prove to be too bad a set of dealing – whilst we could hope for more could we really have expected the two to go for more than £5.5 to £6m – realistically I doubt it. We have one more saleable asset that I think many fans would not be too sad to see leave now – rather harshly I feel as he has just had an “off” season and remains a very bright prospect – that of course is Loach. A year or so back we would have been annoyed to see him go for £2.5 to £3m but now most would bite someone’s hand off for that.

These sales together with previous disposals of the likes of Priskin and McAnuff mean we have generated from disposals much of the cash used in our loss making period. The days of silly salaries for worthless players – does Ellington spring to mind?- are over.

So where does this leave us?

We should now be in the sort of position that any non rich club coming up into the Championship would be. We have a good solid but not large fan base, we have a stadium which houses comfortably the numbers of fans we attract (not pretty as it is 3 sided) but that does not actually alter its overall sufficiency of size – we do not turn away fans through getting to maximum capacity. We still have debt – but not excessive in Championship terms.

The positives are numerous – we have vast experience of football at this level – and above. We have a great young manager who is learning rapidly and is capable not only of managing a this level but of doing so on a tight budget. We have an Academy that is certainly unrivalled outside the Premiership – if even there – to produce the next generation of young players. We are playing attractive football – not the old long ball game that we were tainted with according to some. We have a very loyal and tolerant fan base. There are many other factors.

Let us not get too despondent about current sales – after all it is less than two years since we picked up Graham and Buckley and not only did we get good service from them but we have turned them round for a good profit – if less than some would have liked.

There is no reason to believe we will not be able to do at lest as well as we have in the past year or two – and in addition with the knowledge that the past problems of debt and running a club above the level sustainable are well behind us.

If Malky goes……..it will be a big blow and one we would need to recover from by bringing in another “low budget” manager – but there are former players like Hessenthaler out there – everyone will have their own contender. But if we can persuade Malky that the club has turned the corner thanks in no small part to him and that from here it can only get better – he may not be prised away – he is certainly a loyal man – and has Integrity.

I think our future is golden – good young manager, excellent young players, superb loyal fans and the prospect of one or two “bargain” buys to add some old head experience to young shoulders

 

Well said Lenny.

There's cause for negativity, of course: no fan is ever pleased to see their best player sold, less still below his valuation. But we're all pragmatic (or at least should be, as long-suffering Watford fans!) and can see the positives too, which you point out.

Hopefully this coming season will bring attractive football, the development of more Academy players, a few bargain buys, some committed loanees, prudent management off the field and, above all, Championship survival.

 

Good stuff Leo

We are an attractive proposition to any manager who wants a challenge, rather than buy his way to success. We have one of the best Academy set-ups in the country, if not the world, and must be the envy of so many teams, and it will be the blueprint for so many clubs for years!

We have a very tight budget, but this means being far more picky about the palyers we can bring in - we bring in players who work for the team rather than themselves! We have a club ethic that people buy into, be it the players, the backroom staff or the fans!

We will never be a 'Manchester United', but we have a club that has lots of highs as well as some lows.... Quite often a team we can be proud of, and a shirt to be proud to wear!

 

Yes - I just felt we needed to sit back and remember that there are many clubs who would love to swap places with us and what we have - we should not be getting ourselves into a depression and expecting relegation - these things can become a self fulfilling prophecy

 

Well said Lenny.

And if all else fails, Plymouth, Bradford and Port Vale will probably be decent away trips in two years' time.

 

Excellent Article 5 star and repped from me! It is very easy to get down on supposed bad news! If MM goes I think it will be a relegation bringing blow, if he stays then I agree with a lot you have stated! The future in a year or two dosent look too bad!
I feel we are at a crossroads and the next few weeks will prove pivotal to the next few years!

 

Would be repped if the bloody system would let me

 

Well, it would be nice to agree, but I can't. The trouble is we have the wrong owner. The "Winter Plan" to recover from the failed punt on the Prem was to bring operating costs into line with Championship revenue of about £11M a year by getting rid of the high earners, with any continuing shortfall made up by careful player trading. This has been achieved. The second part of the plan was to attract new investors--people who would be prepared to put money into the club and leave it there, by means of loans or new equity. This has not been achieved. Instead we have a new owner who has no money . So now players are being sold to pay for the takeover and to pay off the loans made by previous owners; this will continue for at least two years while the bonds are paid off. This means continually selling off any player that shows promise, and breaking up teams every 6 months. Malky will not stand for that and will leave. He has done the job he was asked to do here by keeping us in the Championship and developing players for sale. He must be thinking that it is time for him to move on to the next stage of his career, with a club that can offer him scope for progress. Watford can offer him little more.

Realists in the club like Winter must be preparing for life in League One next year. This means revenues based on crowds of c8000 and a wage cap of c2k a week, with a squad mainly of youngsters and loanees, and a new manager. Talk of bringing in new players this year on contracts above this level are fanciful--they would be unsustainable in a lower division. So forget Bothroyds ,Phillips, Taylor etc even if they are available on a "free". Nothing is free, much less experienced footballers.

It comes back to Mr B really. As Churchill said of Russia , he is a mystery inside an enigma wrapped in a riddle. The mystery is where he got his money from. The enigma is what were his motives in taking us over in the first place. The riddle is what are his plans for the future. My fear is that he borrowed the money, the enterprise is a vanity project for him and that he is out of his depth and without coherent plans for the future.

I am ready to apologise if Malky is still here at the start of August and GT still here this time next year.

 

I disagree with you on this one Rodger. The trading cannot be used to pay for the purchase as Mr B is at the back of the creditor list so will not get any money out for 4 years and so fasr he's put in (or whoevers behind him) around 3.5 million. Whether that is the final investment or whether he has more available we do not know as we know nothing about his backing though with Seymour Pearce involved in the purchase I hold on to some hope that there is indeed a viable plan with sufficient funding somewhere. You cannot borrow the kind of money Mr B has put in without some sort of decent security and plan especially in todays environment and even more difficult with Mr Bs public track record. We were spoiled by not having to sell in January though this was always the plan, I guess in the hope that we might sneak into the prem so positive signs there that if things look hopeful every effort will be made to support. Malky has bought into the philosophy of making players and I would hope expects to move 2 or 3 of his best on each year and indeed if I were the board I'd be paying him a percentage/performance bonus on this achievement set it up as a KPI for him. Not one official from the club or player has come out with a negative comment its only us mushrooms who are a lot worried as we're a long way from the source of reliable information.

 

You're right about Dasani. But the Phillips comment exposes a fundamental flaw in your argument.

The pundits, for once, would be right to tip us for relegation this year. Part of me is too. But if we go down, our older players (bar Doyley) would all be in demand, while any younger player earning any sort of money would attract a decent fee. There is no reason whatsoever not to go for the Andrew Taylors, Phillips's, even Jon Harleys, provided they fit into the existing wage structure.

 

Some people can always find a cloud in a silver lining

Roger - your argument could well be right - but it hinges on Bassini having no access to funds and so the 6 monthly cycle of sales - and if that is the case we will struggle. But we don't know that - and you have to ask yourself why a) the previous Board would sell out to such an offer and b) how Bassini sees profit in a club going on a downward spiral.

I have not been a fan of Bassini - in fact I have been very critical - but just for now I am prepared to consider that he and whoever is advising / backing him want to make money themselves - and they can only do that if we are successful.

Before we all slit our wrists maybe we should hold our breath and see whether some of the sale value goes to finding the next Graham or Buckley - whether we can hold onto Eustace and Cowie and maybe bring back the likes of Phillips to boost experience, quality and morale.

We are where we are and I am prepared to believe there is enough positive to take us forward. The big caveat is of course Malky - if he walks we will need to act really fast to replace him - and that may be a difficult task

 

You get a rep from me Leonardo ...i think you're right, though i agree with Roger in part..about Mr B.

 

"players are being sold to pay for the takeover and to pay off the loans made by previous owners"
This statement maybe true but if you look at it objectively that argument could be construed as flawed in the case of Danny Graham and Buckley.
Although Danny would never rock the boat at this stage once we missed out on promotion he was in the shop window, he more or less issued a come and get me plea to clubs when he indicated he wanted to play at the highest level and Watford certainly would not stand in his way even if they were able too.
Buckley on the other hand is slightly different 1million pounds I believe represents good value for a player who in my opinion has flattered to deceive the manager.
Yes he had some good games and I believe he will be a good buy for Brighton but I just got the feeling that Malky was never really keen on him.
We have the likes of Whichelow, Bryan and young Murray coming through who can all soften the blow so is Buckley that big a loss.
We have until August to assemble a squad whose first objective must be to maintain Championship status any thing after that is a bonus in my opinion but I just keep reading glass half empty statements months before we have even kicked a ball in anger.
Still perhaps that is the Watford way and we always seem to be at our best when most people have us down for relegation so perhaps it is a reverse psychology ploy by some…………..very cunning wish I had of thought of it.

 

I am not employing reverse psychology! I am just more pessimistic about this season than I was about last . I did not actually fear relegation last season. I thought Malky had nurtured our Academy talent well, made some good signings/loan agreements and by August last year had built a team that was competitive in this division--as we eventually saw in the "Golden Period" around Christmas. What a pity that this team could not be sustained. But this season will be different. The division is more competitive and it looks like the team will be weaker.

Of course I expected Graham to go, but the difference now is that after the bond installments, season ticket "loan" etc have been paid, and allowance made for working capital, there will be very little left for investment in new players, let alone ground improvements. And I think Mr B WILL be paying off (some of) the loan he took out to finance the takeover. He is only "back of the creditor list" (Aberdeen) if we go into administration. As sole owner of a private company he can do much as he likes with the revenue till then--he has obligations to pay the former owners and Ticketus first, but after that can use revenue from player trading to pay off (part of) the £3.5M he put into the company.

The income from any Ashley Young sale plus from Saracens was probably prudently not budgeted for , so is a bit of a windfall. Obviously some incoming players are to be expected, but I do not believe that we will be recruiting any experienced players at the top of our wage structure. That signals a much harder fight for survival this year--with or without Malky.

 

Damn been rumbled Welcome to the board Hornetalex!

 

I think I'm somewhere between Leo's rose tinted view and Roger's hard view.

The club's debt was at the limit - even Wonga would flinch at our finances. The first 2 sales have eased the picture, but for how long? What Malky has to do is improve what he now has. It is unrealistic to assume that the likes of Eustace, M Taylor, Jenkins et al will maintain good form for the next 12 months, so Malky needs to work some magic.

I believe there will be at least 1 more "big sale" in order to give Malky something to play with - similar to 2005 when HH's sale funded quite a bit of activity to enable AB to build a competitive side.

The debt problem will continue to blight the club for a few years to come - I find it ironic that some clubs can lose £15m in one year without much fear, but that it has taken us 5 years to rack up this potentially "terminal amount".

I guess this is the contrast at this level.

 

Lets look at the evidence...........

Since Bassini assumed control of the club:

1) Saracens have not gone and willing continue to ply their trade at Vicarage Rd

2) The pitch is not going to be renewed in the foreseeable future

3) Our best player sold

4) Arguably our second best player sold

5) As yet no mention of anyone being bought

Could Roger be right?

 

YV I know what you mean, the news has all been pretty negative, but the moneymen might see the player sales and the new Sarries deal as being good news as they all have a positive cash impact.

From my point of view I can't wait for a signing as this would point us in the direction of the future. With Malky's integrity he's not going to start signing new players and then walk out.

Certainly any new regime usually likes to present some good news - there has not been ANY news, or any indication of what "his Grannies" have been tasked with. Against that background I can't see any "Golden Future".

 

I think your middle paragraph sums things up well! I am hoping that matters are not as bad as some make out, equally I think were going to struggle for a few more seasons yet,However I think Leo was looking at the longer term ,with academy being the lifeline that helps us through these difficult times! I also think things will probably get worse (maybe a relegation) before they get better , but once we have self sustainability we can push on ! be more attractive to a decent investor and Baz can take his profit and go back to the rock he crawled out from!

 

I'm trying to look for positives tonight. Not easy, but I did find one.

If you take away Graham's goals from last season, and assume that whoever replaced him would have done exactly the same job, without scoring, we would have finished in 21st place with 45 points.

Obviously football doesn't work like that, and we will miss the way he plays far more than his goals. But I think it's something to cling to.