The first Q U A R T E R.....

The first quarter of the season or the first 12 games are very important, statistically and mentally....

Invariably most of the final top 6 AFTER 12 GAMES are usually in the top 6 -8 teams, and 1 of the autos often top 2nd or 3 rd
It takes say 6 games to settle and then the next 6 to confirm your stature.

Top TEAMS / CITY, NEED TO MOP UP THE BOTTOM 8 wins H and A = 6PTS ...AND GET ave 4PTS FROM TOP 8... with at least 3/4pts from mid teams ( 7 )
That would be 104 points OUR TARGET! = = = 2.3 POINTS A GAME!
Before the season kicked off the bookies said the top 8 (beside City ) would be:-

The team. . . . .Plyd . . won . drawn . lost . . . Pts . . . from other 7 . bottom 8

BRISTOL CITY . . 5 . . . 3 . . . . 2 . . . . 0 . . . . . 11 . . . . . 4 pts . . . . . . 7pts ......................... ave 2.2 points a game ..rock on ....
MKDons . . . . . . 5 . . . 3 . . . . 1 . . . . 1 . . . . . . 10 . . . . . 0pts. . . . . . 0pts
Doncaster . . . . . 5 . . . 2 . . . . 1 . . . . 2 . . . . . . 7 . . . . . 1pts . . . . . . 6pts
Peterbro . . . . . . 5 . . . 4 . . . . 0 . . . . 1 . . . . . 12 . . . . . 3pts . . . . . . 6pts
PNEnd . . . . . . . . 5 . . . 2 . . . . 3 . . . . 0 . . . . . 9 . . . . . . 2pts . . . . . . 7pts
Orient . . . . . . . . 5 . . . 1 . . . . 3 . . . . 1 . . . . . 6 . . . . . . 2pts . . . . . . 4pts
Sheff utd . . . . . . 5 . . . 2 . . . . 1 . . . . 2 . . . . . 7 . . . . . . 4pts . . . . . . 0pts
Barnsley . . . . . . 5 . . . 2 . . . . 2 . . . . 1 . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . 0pts . . . . . 3pts
Fleetwood . . . . . 5 . . . 3 . . . . 2 . . . . 0 . . . . . 11 . . . . . .1 pts . . . . . 9pts


So far MKD have played "mid division teams" Based on bookies odds and lost to POSH. . . POSH lost to Sheff Utd...City have played 2 top and 3 bottom. PNE 2 top and 3 bottom.

After this weekend of England games it starts to show false positions with only 14 teams playing, with Sheff and MKD dragging their heels?

The team. . . . .Plyd . . won . drawn . lost . . . Pts . . . from other 7 . bottom 8

BRISTOL CITY . . 6 . . . 4 . . . . 2 . . . . 0 . . . . . 14 . . . . . 4 pts . . . . . . 10pts ......ave 2.33 points a game ..rock on ....projected final points = 107
MKDons . . . . . . 5 . . . 3 . . . . 1 . . . . 1 . . . . . . 10 . . . . . 0pts. . . . . . 0pts
Doncaster . . . . . 5 . . . 2 . . . . 1 . . . . 2 . . . . . . 7 . . . . . 1pts . . . . . . 6pts
Peterbro . . . . . . 6 . . . 5 . . . . 0 . . . . 1 . . . . . 15 . . . . . 3pts . . . . . . 9pts
PNEnd . . . . . . . . 5 . . . 2 . . . . 3 . . . . 0 . . . . . 9 . . . . . . 2pts . . . . . . 7pts
Orient . . . . . . . . 5 . . . 1 . . . . 3 . . . . 1 . . . . . 6 . . . . . . 2pts . . . . . . 4pts
Sheff utd . . . . . . 5 . . . 2 . . . . 1 . . . . 2 . . . . . 7 . . . . . . 4pts . . . . . . 0pts
Barnsley . . . . . . 5 . . . 2 . . . . 2 . . . . 1 . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . 0pts . . . . . 3pts
Fleetwood . . . . . 6 . . . 3 . . . . 2 . . . . 1 . . . . . 11 . . . . . .1 pts . . . . . 9pts

After 13th Sept games will align to 6 games played................hence 2 tables

 

With the Euro break teams now have a game in hand, for some that may have been a positive, they are playing poorly others a negative as playing out of their skins!
DONNY well they have 7points from 15 and one of those points has come from the top 8.....

 

BETTING PRE season KICK OFF TO WIN THE LEAGUE

Team..Odds..wk2..wk3..wk4..wk5..wk6....wk7..wk8..wk9.,.wk10..wk11..wk12

Sheff..6......6.....8.....13/2... 13/2...7- - -5...9/2
CITY...7......6...9/2....9/2. ....5/1...7/2- - -3/1...5/2
PNE....8......8.....8..... 5. ......5.....11/2- - -6...
7
Orient..17/2...10.....9......9...10.. ...11- - -12...14
Peterbro..9.....9.......8......8...7......13/2- - -6...9
MKD.....10....14.....18.....14....12....12- - -9...12
Coventry /bar..bar...bar...bar....20...18- - -16...22
Barnsley.. 12....16.....14....18...16...16- - -18...18
Fleetwood /bar. 14......18...18...20 ..28- - -33...33
DONNY......12....14....22...22....40....40- - -40...40

AVE FROM MORE THAN ONE BOOK. FROM GAME 2 / NOW SKY ODDS

Teams featuring in top 8 with
original odds, then last 5 weeks
Chesterfield 33..22 ... 33.....25...22........22
Crawley 33........22....33.....50....50bar.
YEOVIL 14........33.....28.....33....33.....40
SWINDON 14....33.....33.....33 ...25.....25
BRADFORD 14 ..33.....28.....22....50....33

Fleetwood enter top 8 @ 14/1 week 2
COVENTRY ENTER TOP 8 @20/1 ON WEEK 5
Teams with a ## had odds when they entered top 8
other than above were all 33/1 or greater at start
of season to win the League.

 

The team. . . . .Plyd . . won . drawn . lost . . . Pts . . . from other 7 . bottom 8

BRISTOL CITY . . 6 . . . 4 . . . . 2 . . . . 0 . . . . . 14 . . . . . 4 pts . . . . . . 10pts ......ave 2.33 points a game ..rock on ....projected final points = 107
MKDons . . . . . . 6 . . . 4 . . . . 1 . . . . 1 . . . . . . 13 . . . . . 3pts. . . . . . 0pts
Doncaster . . . . . 6 . . . 2 . . . . 1 . . . . 3 . . . . . . 7 . . . . . 1pts . . . . . . 6pts
Peterbro . . . . . . 6 . . . 5 . . . . 0 . . . . 1 . . . . . 15 . . . . . 3pts . . . . . . 9pts
PNEnd . . . . . . . . 6 . . . 2 . . . . 3 . . . . 1 . . . . . 9 . . . . . . 2pts . . . . . . 7pts
Orient . . . . . . . . 6 . . . 1 . . . . 3 . . . . 2 . . . . . 6 . . . . . . 2pts . . . . . . 4pts
Sheff utd . . . . . . 6 . . . 3 . . . . 1 . . . . 2 . . . . . 10 . . . . . . 4pts . . . . . . 3pts
Barnsley . . . . . . 6 . . . 2 . . . . 2 . . . . 2 . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . 0pts . . . . . 3pts
Fleetwood . . . . . 6 . . . 3 . . . . 2 . . . . 1 . . . . . 11 . . . . . .1 pts . . . . . 9pts

After 13th Sept games will align to 6 games played................hence 2 tables.....

The team. . . . .Plyd . . won . drawn . lost . . . Pts . . . from other 7 . bottom 8

BRISTOL CITY . . 7 . . . 5 . . . . 2 . . . . 0 . . . . . 17 . . . . . 7 pts . . . . . . 10pts ......ave 2.43 points a game ..rock on ....projected final points = 112
MKDons . . . . . . 7 . . . 4 . . . . 1 . . . . 2 . . . . . . 13 . . . . . 3pts. . . . . . 0pts
Doncaster . . . . . 7 . . . 2 . . . . 2 . . . . 3 . . . . . . 8 . . . . . 1pts . . . . . . 6pts
Peterbro . . . . . . 7 . . . 5 . . . . 1 . . . . 1 . . . . . 15 . . . . . 3pts . . . . . . 10pts
PNEnd . . . . . . . . 7 . . . 2 . . . . 4 . . . . 1 . . . . . 10 . . . . . . 2pts . . . . . . 7pts
Orient . . . . . . . . 7 . . . 1 . . . . 4 . . . . 2 . . . . . 7 . . . . . . 2pts . . . . . . 4pts
Sheff utd . . . . . . 7 . . . 4 . . . . 1 . . . . 2 . . . . . 10 . . . . . . 4pts . . . . . . 6pts
Barnsley . . . . . . 7 . . . 2 . . . . 2 . . . . 2 . . . . . . 9 . . . . . . 1pts . . . . . 3pts
Fleetwood . . . . . 7 . . . 3 . . . . 2 . . . . 2 . . . . . 11 . . . . . .1 pts . . . . . 9pts


The team. . . . .Plyd . . won . drawn . lost . . . Pts . . . other top 7 ... bottom 8

BRISTOL CITY . . 8 . . . 6 . . . . 2 . . . . 0 . . . . . 20 . . . . . 7 pts . . . . . . 13pts ......ave 2.5 points a game ..rock on ....projected final points = 115
MKDons . . . . . . 7 . . . 4 . . . . 1 . . . . 2 . . . . . . 13 . . . . . 3pts. . . . . . 0pts
Doncaster . . . . . 7 . . . 2 . . . . 2 . . . . 3 . . . . . . 8 . . . . . 1pts . . . . . . 6pts
Peterbro . . . . . . 8 . . . 5 . . . . 2 . . . . 1 . . . . . 16 . . . . . 3pts . . . . . . 10pts
PNEnd . . . . . . . . 7 . . . 2 . . . . 4 . . . . 1 . . . . . 10 . . . . . . 2pts . . . . . . 7pts
Orient . . . . . . . . 7 . . . 1 . . . . 4 . . . . 2 . . . . . 7 . . . . . . 2pts . . . . . . 4pts
Sheff utd . . . . . . 7 . . . 4 . . . . 1 . . . . 2 . . . . . 10 . . . . . . 4pts . . . . . . 6pts
Barnsley . . . . . . 7 . . . 2 . . . . 2 . . . . 2 . . . . . . 9 . . . . . . 1pts . . . . . 3pts
Fleetwood . . . . . 8 . . . 3 . . . . 3 . . . . 2 . . . . . 11 . . . . . .2 pts . . . . . 9pts

 

we are now 5/2 to win the league

we have a win and 2 draws advantage

potentially we are heading for 115 points

Based on bookies odds 13 0f our 20 points have come from teams they said would finish in bottom 8
whilst 7 have come from teams deemed to be top 8 (9) finishers.

 

LEVELLED UP TO 8 GAMES PLAYED BOOKMAKERS ORIGINAL TOP8

..... ..... ...... ..... ...... ..... ...... ..... ...... ..... ...... ..Top .... Bottom
TEAM ........ PLYD ... Won ... Draw ... Lost ... PTS ... 8pts ... 8pts


SHEFF UTD.. ... 8 ..... 4 ....... 1 ....... 3 ...... 13 ...... 4 ...... 6
CITY........ ..... 8 ....... 6 ....... 2 ....... 0 ..... 20 ..... 7 .... 13
PNE......... ..... 8 ..... 3 ........ 4 ...... 1 ....... 13 ...... 2 ...... 9
L ORIENT. ..... 8 ..... 2 ........ 4 ..... 2 ....... 10 ..... 5 ....... 4
PETERBRO ..... 8 ..... 5 ........ 1 ..... 2 ...... 16 ...... 3 ..... 10
BARNSLEY ..... 8 ...... 2 ........ 3 ...... 3 ...... 9 ...... 2 ...... 3
MKDONS.. .... 8 ..... 5 ........ 1 ...... 2 ....... 16 ..... 3 ...... 3
DONCASTER ... 8 ..... 3 ........ 2 ...... 3 ...... 11 ...... 1 ...... 6
FLEETWOOD ... 8 ..... 3 ........ 3 ...... 2 ...... 12 ...... 3 ...... 9

BETTING PRE season KICK OFF TO WIN THE LEAGUE

Team..Odds..wk2..wk3..wk4..wk5..wk6....wk7..wk8..w k9.,.wk10..wk11..wk12

Sheff..6......6.....8.....13/2... 13/2....7- - - -5.....9/2....7/1.....6/1
CITY...7.......6.....9/2.....9/2. ..5/1....7/2- - -3/1...5/2...5/2....2/1
PNE....8......8.....8..... 5. ......5.....11/2- - -6.......7..11/2....11/2
Orient..17/2...10.....9......9...10.. ...11- - -12...14....12....20
Peterbro..9.....9.......8......8...7......13/2- - -6...9...10.....9
MKD.....10....14.....18.....14....12....12- - -9...12....8.....10
Coventry /bar..bar...bar...bar....20...18- - -16...22....28.....40
Barnsley.. 12....16.....14....18...16...16- - -18...18....25.....40
Fleetwood /bar. 14......18...18...20 ..28- - -33...33......40.....bar
DONNY......12....14....22...22....40....40- - -40...40......bar

AVE FROM MORE THAN ONE BOOK. FROM GAME 2 / NOW SKY ODDS

Teams now featuring in top 8 with
original odds, then last 7 weeks
Chesterfield 33..22 ... 33.....25...22........22....28...40
Crawley 33........22....33.....50....50bar.
YEOVIL 14........33.....28.....33....33.....40.....33...bar
SWINDON 14....33.....33.....33 ...25.....25.....20.....12
BRADFORD 14 ..33.....28.....22....50....33....50BAR....bar

Fleetwood enter top 8 @ 14/1 week 2
COVENTRY ENTER TOP 8 @20/1 ON WEEK 5
Teams with a ## had odds when they entered top 8
other than above were all 33/1 or greater at start
of season to win the League.

 

in our first 8 games against actual teams in top 8 or bottom 8 we have

performed:-

..... ..... ...... ..... ...... ..... ...... ..... ...... ..... ...... ..Top .... Bottom
TEAM ........ PLYD ... Won ... Draw ... Lost ... PTS ... 8pts ... 8pts


CITY........ ..... 8 ....... 6 ....... 2 ....... 0 ..... 20 ..... 7 .... 13 ................bookies forcast on top 8

CITY........ ..... 8 ....... 6 ....... 2 ....... 0 ..... 20 ..... 4 .... 13 .................. actual teams in top 8 ( 1* win 1 draw )

PNE......... ..... 8 ..... 3 ........ 4 ...... 1 ....... 13 ...... 2 ...... 9 ................bookies forcast on top 8

PNE......... ..... 8 ..... 3 ........ 4 ...... 1 ....... 13 ...... 2 ...... 4 ....................actual teams in top 8 (2 draws)

SHEFF UTD.. ... 8 ..... 4 ....... 1 ....... 3 ...... 13 ...... 4 ...... 6 ...................bookies forcast on top 8

SHEFF UTD.. ... 8 ..... 4 ....... 1 ....... 3 ...... 13 ...... 7 ...... 3 ...................actual teams in top 8 (2* wins1 draw 2 lost)

Sheff have played 5 of the current top 8 getting 7 points, city 2 won 1 drew 1 and PNE also plyd 2 drawing both

just bear in mind Rochdale* are flying high!

 

levelled at 9 games all

..... ..... ...... ..... ...... ..... ...... ..... ...... ..... ...... ..Top .... Bottom
TEAM ........ PLYD ... Won ... Draw ... Lost ... PTS ... 8pts ... 8pts

SHEFF UTD.. ... 9 ..... 5 ....... 1 ....... 3 ...... 16 ...... 4 ...... 6
CITY........ ..... 9 ....... 6 ....... 3 ....... 0 ..... 21 ...... 8 .... 13 ................ .....2.34 = 107 potential points
PNE......... ..... 9 ..... 4 ........ 4 ...... 1 ....... 16 ...... 2 ...... 9
L ORIENT. ..... 9 ..... 2 ........ 4 ..... 3 ....... 10 ..... 5 ....... 4
PETERBRO ..... 9 ..... 5 ........ 2 ..... 2 ...... 16 ...... 3 ..... 10
BARNSLEY ..... 9 ...... 2 ........ 3 ...... 4 ...... 9 ...... 2 ...... 3
MKDONS.. ..... 9 ..... 5 ........ 1 ...... 3 ....... 13 ...... 3 ...... 3
DONCASTER ... 9 ..... 3 ........ 2 ...... 4 ...... 11 ...... 1 ...... 6
FLEETWOOD ... 9 ..... 3 ........ 4 ...... 2 ...... 13 ...... 4 ...... 9

 

LEVELLED TO 10 GAMES ALL
THESE TEAMS WERE THE TEAMS SELECTED BY THE BOOKIES

TO BE THE TOP TEAMS IN THE ORDER OF BETTING

......................................................................TOP ........BOTTOM
TEAM ........ PLYD ... Won ... Draw ... Lost ... PTS ... 8pts ... 8pts


SHEFF UTD.. ... 10 ..... 5 ....... 1 ....... 4 ...... 16 ...... 4 ...... 6
CITY........ ..... 10 ....... 7 ....... 3 ....... 0 ..... 24 ...... 11 .... 13
PNE......... ..... 10 ..... 5 ........ 4 ...... 1 ....... 19 ...... 2 ...... 12
L ORIENT. ..... 10 ..... 2 ........ 4 ...... 4 ....... 10 ..... 5 ....... 4
PETERBRO ..... 10 ..... 6 ........ 2 ...... 2 ...... 19 ...... 6 ..... 10
BARNSLEY ..... 10 ...... 3 ........ 3 ...... 4 ...... 12 ...... 5 ...... 3
MKDONS.. ..... 10 ..... 6 ........ 1 ...... 3 ....... 16 ...... 3 ...... 3
DONCASTER ... 10 ..... 4 ........ 2 ...... 4 ...... 14 ...... 1 ...... 9
FLEETWOOD ... 10 ..... 3 ........ 4 ...... 3 ...... 13 ...... 4 ...... 9

Next table will be current top 10! now that's on "F O R M "

BETTING PRE season KICK OFF TO WIN THE LEAGUE

Team..Odds..wk2..wk3..wk4..wk5..wk6....wk7..wk8..w k9.,.wk10..wk11..wk12

Sheff..6.....6.....8.....13/2... 13/2....7- - - -5.....9/2....7/1.....6/1...9/1
CITY...7.......6.....9/2.....9/2. ..5/1....7/2- - -3/1...5/2...5/2....2/1...2/1
PNE....8......8.....8..... 5. ......5.....11/2- - -6.......7..11/2....11/2....4/1
Orient..17/2...10.....9......9...10.. ...11- - -12...14....12....20...28
Peterbro..9.....9.......8......8...7......13/2- - -6...9...10.....9...12
MKD.....10....14.....18.....14....12....12- - -9...12....8.....10...9
Barnsley.. 12....16.....14....18...16...16- - -18...18....25.....40....40
Fleetwood 12... 14......18...18...20 ..28- - -33...33......40.....bar...BAR
DONNY......12....14....22...22....40....40- - -40...40......bar...BAR...BAR

 

If what you say proves to be correct then based on last season we will win the thing by 10 points.

However, although I do think we will win it I'm sure it will not be quite so easy, because nothing worthwhile ever is

 

BRR you are right, it may be good to have a poor patch like 5 pts from 9 ! or even lose a couple and draw one, 1 pt from 9 ! to steady the ship.....we hope it does not get worse than that!!!!!

the new second quarter thread is based on " actual teams" that have played 10 games. and by projecting games played against who the projection comes out at about 105 pts I would be happy with 95

at the moment we only have a 1 win advantage over Swindles, 2 wins and a draw over PNE MKD and 3 wins over Chesterfield.........that makes that game very important indeed!!!!
.....I like to ignore gd for the moment the only time that means anything is when we have played 46 games.