If Carlton House is pulled from an already weak looking Derby. Which horse will start favourite , and what chance a winner at bigger odds such as one of Al Zaroonis runners
Why is the 2011 Derby “already weak looking”? By implication, The Queen’s horse must be the only quality horse in the line-up so you have already put your mortgage on it and you are now worrying that you could be living in a cardboard box next week if it does not make it to post. As it stands at the moment “one of Al Zarooni’s runners” is Ocean War as that is the only horse that Godolphin have stated is going to be on the Downs on Saturday. If Carlton House somehow does not recover in time to take part, we will all be disappointed for Her Majesty but she has been a racing stalwart for half a century so I am sure that she will look upon the setback philosophically. Whoever wins this year’s renewal, we could well be praising another great race and great performance by Saturday evening. Let us wait until afterwards before looking disparagingly at it.
QMII - I'll hold my hands up and say I've used the phrase "it looks a poor renewal" but from your post it does need changing, Best I can say is in 2009 Sea The Stars; Rip Van Winkle & Fame And Glory for me was a line up which had me ready for the race before hand; was a top race and also produced one great and two top class horses afterwards! Last season for me there wasn't the same anticipation as there was in 2009 - but it still did produce a course record & Arc winner! This season with the build up I feel more like 2010 than 2009. Maybe Sea The Stars went and ruined it after all! As you say though until its all happened and they move onto other targets you can never really say if its a good or bad renewal. To be honest though whoever wins it I think will find it difficult stepping in with the older horses this season. I can't remember such a top class bunch being kept in training in recent memory!
The Derby is rarely a top class race, as compared to other G1s, there's rarely more than 2 top class horses on the race. Even in 09 let's be honest RVW was never a 12f horse, so there was only realy 2 top class horses in the race! This year I believe there could be a few G1 winners, come from the race, I believe Recital and Seville for AOB will be top class, and obviosly Carlton House will. I also fancy Native Khan as a top class horse, but only time will tell
I don't understand how people can tell the vintage of the race in advance, because as it stands we have winners of the Derrinstown Trial, Dante Trial, Chester Vase trial, Two listed 'trial' winners, a Group 2 winner in France and the third horse home in the Guineas. I think we have just about everyone we could expect in the race (bar Frankel perhaps) and for me the Derby looks a very good renewal as it stands. In twelve months time we may say different, but thats the joy of racing. I think the Derby is a top class race Shergar, the last two winners have gone on to win the Arc and many a Derby winner before has gone on to take all age Group 1 races too.
The Derby was RVW's only attempt at 12f and he far from disgraced himself rattling home late possibly given too much to do? Yeah - he was better at a mile to 10f but was still a top class horse to come out of that race. Fame And Glory I'd agree seemed much more at ease at 12f so RVW was always then going to be redirected to a mile or 10f - why make them take each other one? You need to remember the Derby is usually the first time a horse will try 12f and until they do - you never know what their best trip may be. The same could happen with Recital & Seville - one could be better at 12f and the other revert to 10f? Until the take that 12f on though you'll never know. Will be very difficult in G1 races this season IMO for 3yo's - the crop of older horses is exceptional!
Just put my classic bets on: 10 E/W Zain Al Boldan in the Oaks (10/1) 10 E/W Native Khan in the Derby (10/1) 10 E/W double I think both horses have cracking chances and offer a bit of value as they are trained by "less fashionable" trainers. I particularly think Native Khan is being dismissed too lightly by many because Fallon got off him, but there are clearly bigger reasons behind that decision. Mick Channon's filly has done evrything asked of her in some style to date and her victory in the Oaks trial oozed class and professionalism. For me she is the one horse in the race who could be something very special.
It's a sub-standard Derby......and that's official!!!. Why else would O'Brien and his Coolmore buddies be running five horses in the race?
OddDog, I certainly would not be put off Native Khan simply because Kieren Fallon has made the decision to ride for Ballydoyle in order to enhance his chances of picking up big rides later in the season. Native Khan has every right to take his chance and I am sure that Ed Dunlop’s phone was ringing with jockeys’ agents keen to assist him in finding a rider the minute Fallon’s plans became public knowledge. What price a grey one-two? Native Khan and Ocean War – that would be a great photo finish, although not especially colourful! kentuckyfriedbeefcake, the Coolmore operation has provided five or six runners for the last three renewals. That just tells me that they do not know which is their best contender so they are letting them all take their chance in the hope that one of them will win and they will find out where the future lies for the others.
