Edit from Ron Apologies for pinching some posts from Saturday's Daily Thread to start this off. So not the usual introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ All those older horses like Limato and The Tin Man, Twilight Son, they are decent, but look what Muhaarar done to them, dominated them, he showed they were not top level sprinters and theyve all been beating each other for a while now. The first 3 in the Commonwealth are a different level of animal, the winner is a proper Group 1 animal the runner up is well above average. The older horses dont have a hope in hell of giving Caravaggio 6 pounds, hes a steering job in the July Cup. Lady Aurelia didnt beat any Group 1 animals in the King Stand, but she is obviously very good. Would be brilliant to see her and Caravaggio take each other on at Newmarket then York, once at each others trip but probably wont happen.
Clearly you think that Caravaggio should be 1/4 not 6/4 so you will have piled on to what you perceive to be a gift. Obviously those proper Group 1 animals are going to come home four or five lengths clear of those old plodders... Even though the official ratings before last week had Caravaggio on 119, Harry Angel on 118, The Tin Man on 117 and Blue Point on 116 – please feel free to reply that you put no store in ratings as it is your general stock answer when they do not concur with your opinion. I am looking forward to what looks a competitive race on paper despite the lopsided betting.
going by your allah written ratings, The Tin Man will need to run 8 pounds above his best to finish next to Caravaggio with the 6 pound weight difference and 2 pounds to find on official ratings seems quite accurate to me on this occasion The Tin Man will be lucky to place in the July Cup, if any of the older horses is a challenger in that its Limato at his best but hes not exactly on the upgrade is he, Caravaggio hasnt even peaked yet
Another way of looking at it is that The Tin Man finished the 6 furlongs in 1.47 secs faster time than Caravaggio, both carrying 9.3. WFA means Caravaggio will carry 6lb less. To me this means (theoretically) that, at level weights, Caravaggio would have been nearly 9 lengths behind the Tin Man. A pull of 6lbs should (theoretically) get him 1.5l closer. On the face of it Caravaggio will need to improve 7.5 l to get past The Tin Man. That doesn't sound right to me. Have I miscalculated? I know races don't work out like that but the fact is The Tin Man has proved he can cover the Ascot 6f in 1m 12.02s (fast by 0.38s). On the same course and similar going Caravaggio has proved he can do it in 1m 13.49s (slow by 1.09s).
Caravaggio had a finishing speed of 101.7% for the final 2f The Tin Man had a finishing speed of 97.6% for the final 2f. That would suggest the Diamond Jubilee was run at a much faster pace. (Figures from Simon Rowlands)
Yes but without meaning to be rude, so what? I remember when I was at school I could finish my races faster than anyone but when I ran in a county race they went so fast from the off they ran me off my legs and I was done long before the finish. At the end of the day it's' how long it takes to get from a to b (with a being the start and b being the end). The finishing speed is irrelevant unless there is a good reason why the fastest finisher got so far behind, and ran the first part in a slower time (eg was continually hampered/boxed in, forced wide etc. Until the horse can prove he can run the whole race in a faster time then it remains open to question as to whether he actually can.
For example, Librisa Breeze who finished 4th, 2¼l behind The Tin Man finished faster than anything in that race and had excuses for not being right up with the leaders (Steadied start, held up in midfield, not clear run over 2f out and over 1f out when bumped, soon switched left, ran on inside final furlong, finished well). You have to wonder whether, with a clearer run he might have won. However, it's not the first time he has come from behind and may benefit from being covered up until as late as possible. On a line through The Tin Man I think Brando might be a decent outsider in the July Cup
I've just read that the Caravaggio race was run against a headwind. That would have slowed them down a bit. On the other hand it would have helped those covered up and would have disadvantaged those setting the pace. Maybe if it hadn't been for the headwind, Harry Angel might have held on. Some Timeform ratings 3yo 129p CARAVAGGIO 127 HARRY ANGEL 125 BLUE POINT Older 127 LIMATO 127 MARSHA 126 THE TIN MAN 125 BRANDO 125 PROFITABLE 125 TASLEET
23 entries stand for the race after Tuesday's scratching stage. Entries to be confirmed on 10th July when supplementary entries can also be made at a cost of £40,000. Current card here: https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/174/newmarket-july/2017-07-15/674179
Interesting that when Blue Point beat Harry Angel at Ascot 6f on gf ground his time was 2.4 secs faster than Caravaggio's time over the same course & distance on gf ground. That's quite a difference Fas clocked a very fast time at Chantilly lto on good ground and is 33/1 I can only conclude that Caravaggio is no Evs shot; not in my book anyhow. Not even convinced he will win
Really fancied Fas for the Commonwealth Cup and he featured in my ante post punts. Can't find anything on the horses well being and why he was pulled, but can't resist a little of that 33/1
